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Yen under pressure; Aussie slides as inflation slows
  + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
"We are closely watching currency moves with a strong sense of urgency," Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda told reporters on Wednesday. The yen was hovering around the seven-month low of 144.18 per dollar it touched overnight. Against the euro, the yen was pinned near the 15-year low of 157.93 it hit on Tuesday. Against sterling, the Asian currency was hovering around 183.25, just a shade below the 7.5-year low it touched on Tuesday. In the spot market, the onshore yuan opened at 7.2225 per dollar and was changing hands at 7.2285.
Persons: Masato Kanda, Carol Kong, Kong, Rodrigo Catril, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Andrew Bailey, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, Ankur Banerjee, Muralikumar Anantharaman, Jamie Freed Organizations: Bank of Japan, Ministry, Finance, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Federal, Fed, National Australia Bank, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Sterling, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Japan, Sintra , Portugal, Tokyo, Singapore
“Maybe we’ll see some successes on inflation here and there, but it just won’t be enough,” said Rossiter. European inflation and rate hike hints from the Portugal meeting were also a focus for Tim Graf, head of EMEA macro strategy at State Street Global Advisors. “Recession probability models in the U.S. project a 55-70% to 65-70% probability we’ll get a recession in the next 12 months. Markets imply a 90% probability of an ECB rate hike to 3.75% in July and a peak around 4.0%. That underpinned the euro against the dollar at $1.095, while keeping it near a 15-year peak of 157.98 yen.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Kim Kyung, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, , James Rossiter, Rossiter, Martins Kazaks, Tim Graf, they’re, we’ve, it’s, Graf, Masato Kanda, Brent Organizations: Federal, National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Nvidia, Wall Street Journal, Commerce Department, Treasury, European Central Bank, TD Securities, ECB, Street Global Advisors, U.S . Locations: China, Tokyo, Japan, Portugal, , Europe, London, U.S
Asia shares subdued, yen shunned as euro shines
  + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
“The data indicated a firmer pace of residential, inventory, and equipment investment in the second quarter,” wrote analysts at Goldman Sachs. Markets imply a 90% probability of an ECB rate hike to 3.75% in July and a peak around 4.0%. That underpinned the euro at $1.0950, while keeping it near a 15-year peak of 157.97 yen. The dollar had hit a near eight-month top of 144.18 yen, before easing back to 143.96 as Japanese officials again protested against the yen’s weakness. Yet, a rally in the yen looks unlikely while the Bank of Japan maintains its super-easy monetary policy.
Persons: Kim Kyung, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, , Advantest, Goldman Sachs, , Masato Kanda, Ueda’s, Carol Kong, Brent firmed Organizations: SYDNEY, National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, European Central Bank, ECB, ANZ, Wall, Journal, Nvidia, Nikkei, Chip, Tokyo, Federal Reserve, CBA Locations: Japan, Tokyo, Portugal, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Beijing, Washington, China, Europe
Asia shares hesitant, yen slide stokes intervention risk
  + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Markets imply a 90% probability of a rate hike to 3.75% in July and a peak around 4.0%. The euro responded by climbing to $1.0957, while surging on the low-yielding yen to a 15-year peak of 157.97. The dollar rose to a near eight-month peak of 144.18 yen, before easing back to 143.87 as Japanese officials again protested the weakness in the yen. Yet, a rally in the yen looks unlikely while the Bank of Japan maintains its super-easy monetary policy. “So we now see a higher risk Japanese authorities will step into the market to prop up the JPY.”In commodities, gold steadied at $1,915 an ounce, after finding support at the recent three-month low of $1,909.99.
Persons: Kim Kyung, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, , Goldman Sachs, , Masato Kanda, Ueda’s, Carol Kong, Brent firmed Organizations: SYDNEY, National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, European Central Bank, ECB, ANZ, Japan’s Nikkei, Nasdaq, Wall, Washington, Nvidia, Federal Reserve, CBA Locations: Japan, Tokyo, Portugal, U.S, Asia, Pacific, China, Europe
At its peak in 2011, the swap deal was worth $70 billion. With both sides sitting on ample foreign exchange reserves, the swap deal is unlikely to be put into action anytime soon, he added. Masato Kanda, Japan's vice finance minister for international affairs also said the currency swap deal would promote co-operation. The bilateral finance talks were to have taken place every year under a 2006 agreement, but were last held in 2016. With China and North Korea growing concerns, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol met with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in May, the third between the two this year, marking a thaw in years of icy relations between the Asian neighbours.
Persons: Yoon Suk Yeol, Kim Keon, Issei Kato, Shunichi Suzuki, Choo, Suzuki, Masato Kanda, Kanda, Fumio Kishida, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Jihoon Lee, Edwina Gibbs, Clarence Fernandez, Kim Coghill Organizations: Tokyo International, REUTERS, Japanese Finance, Korean, Japanese, South Korea, Thomson Locations: Korean, Tokyo, Japan, Seoul TOKYO, SEOUL, South Korea, Seoul, China, North Korea, South
The swap deal expired in 2015 amid worsening relations over issues related to Japan's wartime occupation of the Korean Peninsula, and its restoration would symbolise the improvement in relations, analysts say. "We must strongly raise the momentum for historic improvement of Japan-South Korea relations. The ministers will also discuss global economic developments, infrastructure investment in developing countries, and the role both countries could play in multilateral financial cooperation. The bilateral finance talks, the eighth of their kind, were last held in 2016. Reporting by Tetsushi Kajimoto; Editing by Leika Kihara, Simon Cameron-Moore and Gerry DoyleOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Yoon Suk Yeol, Kim Keon, Issei Kato TOKYO, Shunichi Suzuki, Choo Kyungho, Masato Kanda, Suzuki, Choo, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Leika Kihara, Simon Cameron, Moore, Gerry Doyle Organizations: Tokyo International, REUTERS, Japanese Finance, Korean, Thomson Locations: Korean, Tokyo, Japan, South Korea, China, North Korea, Ukraine
Morning Bid: China gets weary of a weakening yuan
  + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
China, unencumbered as it is by global pacts and commitments on market rates, has reacted swiftly this week. State banks have sold dollars to slow the yuan's decline, and the mid-point for daily trade has also been adjusted. Likewise, when it's around the 145-150 levels, the yen tips the cost-benefit balance for Japan too. Japan's yen has weakened against the dollar so far this year significantly more than its regional counterparts. The yuan has slid more than 4% against the dollar so far this year.
Persons: Vidya Ranganathan, Masato Kanda, Muralikumar Organizations: Vidya, ECB's, Thomson Locations: U.S, China, Japan, ECB's Sintra
NEW YORK, June 26 (Reuters) - The dollar rose against the rouble on Monday, although it was off the 15-month high hit earlier in the session, while the Japanese yen gained modestly against the greenback following comments from the country's top currency diplomat. The Russian rouble weakened 0.90% versus the greenback at 84.40 per dollar after hitting its weakest level since March 2022. Rouble opens at 15-month low vs dollarThe dollar was softer against the yen, after Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Masato Kanda said Japan was not ruling out any options in possible responses to excessive currency moves. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.11% versus the greenback at 143.52 per dollar. The Bank of Japan last intervened in the yen when it traded around 145 per dollar.
Persons: Vladimir Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Putin, Edward Moya, Rouble, International Affairs Masato Kanda, jawboning, Moya, Christine Lagarde, Sterling, Chuck Mikolajczak, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: YORK, Russian, International Affairs, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, ECB, Central Banking, Thomson Locations: New York, Russian, Japan, Sintra, Asia, China, Beijing
It was the first time the BOJ summary showed a board member explicitly mentioning the need for an early debate of a tweak to YCC, which contrasts with Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks ruling out any imminent change in policy. Under YCC, the BOJ guides short-term interest rates at -0.1% and the 10-year bond yield around zero as part of efforts to sustainably achieve its 2% inflation target. Some market players bet the central bank could tweak YCC, such as by widening the allowance band set around the 10-year yield target, as early as July to address market distortions caused by its huge bond buying. FRESH YEN WORRIESYCC is also blamed by some analysts for causing an unwelcome yen fall that pushes up raw material import costs. However, Kanda stopped short of saying Japan was ready to take "decisive action" - language he used shortly before Japan stepped into the currency market last year.
Persons: policymaker, Kazuo Ueda's, Ueda, Daisaku Ueno, MItsubishi UFJ, MItsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, YCC, Masato Kanda, Kanda, Shunichi Suzuki, Japan's, Leika Kihara, Shri Navaratnam, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, MItsubishi, MItsubishi UFJ Morgan, MItsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, Finance, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan, Asia
Investors were also on guard after dramatic weekend events in Russia, though reaction in the currency market was subdued as they assessed the implications of the aborted mutiny. The euro was nursing its losses from last week and was last up 0.07% at $1.0902 in Asia trade. Flash Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data on Friday showed Britain's economy displayed signs of a slowdown this month but inflation pressures stayed high. Elsewhere, the Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 143.27 per dollar, though was not far from an over seven-month low of 143.87 hit on Friday. The offshore yuan languished near a seven-month low at 7.2162 per dollar.
Persons: Sterling, Bank of England stoked, Carol Kong, Masato Kanda, Vladimir Putin's, CBA's, Rae Wee, Gerry Doyle Organizations: Bank of England, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, PMI, U.S, U.S ., Bank of Japan's, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Russia, Asia, Europe, U.S, Russian, Rostov, Moscow, CBA's Kong, China, Beijing
Gold prices edge up on weaker dollar
  + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
June 26 (Reuters) - Gold prices edged higher in early Asian trade on Monday, helped by a weaker U.S. dollar, although chances of more interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year to tame sticky inflation weighed on bullion's appeal. FUNDAMENTALS* Spot gold rose 0.3% to $1,926.29 per ounce by 0051 GMT. U.S. gold futures were up 0.3% at $1,936.10 per ounce* The dollar index was down 0.2%, making gold more attractive for buyers holding other currencies. * In his congressional testimony last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled more rate hikes ahead but vowed the central bank would proceed with caution. DATA/EVENTS (GMT)0500 Japan Leading Indicator Revised April0800 Germany Ifo Business Climate New June0800 Germany Ifo Current Conditions New June0800 Germany Ifo Expectations New JuneReporting by Seher Dareen in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu SahuOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Mary Daly, Masato Kanda, Seher, Subhranshu Sahu Organizations: Federal Reserve, Francisco Fed Bank, Thomson Locations: Japan, Germany, Bengaluru
Dollar pulls back from 15-month high vs ruble as Russia assessed
  + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The U.S. dollar rose against the ruble on Monday, although it was off the 15-month high hit earlier in the session, while the Japanese yen gained modestly against the greenback following comments from the country's top currency diplomat. The Russian ruble weakened 0.90% versus the greenback at 84.40 per dollar after hitting its weakest level since March 2022. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.11% versus the greenback at 143.52 per dollar. The Bank of Japan last intervened in the yen when it traded around 145 per dollar. In Asia, the dollar rose 0.40% versus the offshore Chinese yuan to $7.2442 after hitting a 7-month high as investors braced for potentially more support measures as China returned on Monday from a holiday.
Persons: Vladimir Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Putin, Edward Moya, International Affairs Masato Kanda, jawboning, Moya, Christine Lagarde, Sterling Organizations: U.S, Russian, International Affairs, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, ECB, Central Banking Locations: New York, Japan, Sintra, Asia, China, Beijing
Oil up, stocks dip after short-lived Russian mutiny
  + stars: | 2023-06-25 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
SINGAPORE, June 26 (Reuters) - Oil nudged higher in early trade on Monday as an abortive weekend mutiny by Russian mercenaries raised questions about crude supply, though other financial markets started steadily with investors unsure of any further immediate implications. Russian mercenaries made a short-lived rebellion on Saturday, seizing the southern city of Rostov and advancing on Moscow demanding the removal of Russian military commanders in charge of the war in Ukraine. The private Wagner army then withdrew after striking a deal guaranteeing their safety and the exile of their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, to Belarus. The consequences for the Ukraine war were not clear, though the challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin's authority was the starkest in decades of his leadership. "As such, we are likely to see a marginal uptick in oil prices in the coming days, if the situation does not deteriorate."
Persons: Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Vladimir Putin's, Jorge Leon, Antony Blinken, Ray Attrill, Masato Kanda, Stephen Coates Organizations: Brent, Rystad Energy, National Australia Bank, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Rostov, Moscow, Ukraine, Belarus, Russia, Sydney, Asia, China, steadied
S&P 500 futures were 0.2% higher and currency markets were broadly steady. The private Wagner army then withdrew after striking a deal guaranteeing their safety and the exile of their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, to Belarus. The consequences for the Ukraine war were not clear, though the challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin's authority was the starkest in decades of his leadership. "As such, we are likely to see a marginal uptick in oil prices in the coming days, if the situation does not deteriorate." Elsewhere markets were already on edge about a darkening growth outlook, as China's post-pandemic recovery stalls and global interest rates remain high, and traders were unwilling to take any new positions on the basis of Russian events.
Persons: Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Vladimir Putin's, Jorge Leon, Antony Blinken, Ray Attrill, Masato Kanda, Stephen Coates Organizations: Brent, Rystad Energy, National Australia Bank, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Rostov, Moscow, Ukraine, Belarus, Russia, Sydney, Asia, China, steadied
TOKYO, June 26 (Reuters) - Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said on Monday authorities will respond to any excessive moves in the currency market, warning that recent yen moves were "rapid." When asked about the chance of currency intervention, Kanda told reporters he would not rule out any options. He added that authorities were focusing on the pace of moves in the yen, rather than its levels. The dollar hit a seven-month high against the yen at 143.63 in New York on Friday. Reporting by Tetsushi Kajimoto, writing by Leika Kihara; Editing by Kim Coghill and Jamie FreedOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Masato Kanda, Kanda, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Leika Kihara, Kim Coghill, Jamie Freed Organizations: Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, New York
However, pointing to recent language used by Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, she added that immediate action seems less likely. "The language used is definitely not as tough compared to the lead up to the September 2022 intervention," she said. Masato Kanda, Japan's vice minister of finance for international affairs, told reporters last week that the government would step in if needed as the yen showed further weakening, according to Nikkei. Kanda's comments came after an unscheduled meeting between officials at Japan's Finance Ministry, the publication reported. She noted the month-on-month change seen in the currency before the intervention in September had a range of 6% to 8%.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Shunichi Suzuki, Masato Kanda, Chew Organizations: Bank of Japan, U.S, Bloomberg, Getty, Ministry of Finance, Finance, Nikkei, Japan's Finance Ministry
But the dollar and European stocks slipped, dented by uncertainty about whether Congress will approve the deal after a handful of hard-right Republican lawmakers said on Monday they would oppose the bill, though it is expected to pass. The pan European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) fell 0.2% after recording on Friday its biggest weekly decline in two months. U.S. 10-year bond yields dropped 9.7 basis points to 3.72%, while 30-year yields fell 8 bps to 3.89%. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against six peers, fell 0.26% at 104.03 after rising to a two-month high in earlier trading. Elsewhere, euro zone bond yields fell after Spanish inflation data came in lower than expected, raising hopes that the European Central Bank may raise interest rates less than previously feared.
Summary Biden warns of U.S. recession unless ceiling raised quicklyChina's slowing inflation adds to global recession fearsG7 finance leaders kick off meeting in Niigata, JapanNIIGATA, Japan, May 11 (Reuters) - A standoff over raising the U.S. debt ceiling overshadowed a meeting of Group of Seven (G7) finance leaders set to begin on Thursday, heightening U.S. recession fears as central banks seek a soft landing for the global economy. The U.S. debt crisis is a headache for Japan, which is this year's G7 chair and the world's biggest holder of U.S. debt. Japan's top financial diplomat, Masato Kanda, said on Tuesday the G7 finance leaders might discuss the U.S. debt ceiling but likely would not explicitly mention it in a joint statement at the end of the meeting on Saturday. Past U.S. debt ceiling fights have typically ended with a hastily arranged agreement in the final hours of negotiations, avoiding an unprecedented default. Back then, the G7 finance leaders said in a statement that they were "committed to addressing the tensions stemming from the current challenges on our fiscal deficits, debt and growth."
TOKYO, May 9 (Reuters) - Japan's consumer spending unexpectedly fell in March at the fastest rate in a year, while real wages marked a twelfth month of decline on persistent inflation, highlighting the challenges facing the economy in mounting a strong post-COVID revival. Household spending fell 1.9% in March from a year earlier, the data showed, against economists' median forecast for a 0.4% rise and following a 1.6% gain in February. It marked the biggest decline since March 2022's 2.3%, when Japan was still trying to curb the spread of coronavirus. For the full fiscal year 2022 that ended in March, household spending rose 0.7%, slowing from 1.6% expansion in fiscal 2021. Separate data showed Japanese real wages falling 2.9% in March, marking the full year of declines that started in April 2022 on decades-high consumer inflation.
TOKYO, May 9 (Reuters) - The Group of Seven finance ministers will invite their counterpart from Ukraine to participate in a session on the global economy, Japan's top financial diplomat Masato Kanda said on Tuesday. The biggest challenge regarding sanctions against Russia is circumvention, Kanda told reporters, adding that the G7 will keep up sanctions against Russia. Reporting by Tetsushi Kajimoto; Editing by Kevin LiffeyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
* European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen hailed Ukraine as "the beating heart of today's European values" in a deeply symbolic visit to Kyiv on Tuesday as Russia marked its World War Two Victory Day. CONFLICT* Russia's defence ministry said its forces had launched missile strikes at targets across Ukraine overnight, disrupting Kyiv's supplies of ammunition to the frontline and troop movements. * Ukraine said its air defences shot down 23 of 25 missiles, fired chiefly at Kyiv, and there were no reported casualties. * Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin made a cryptic, profanity-laced comment about those in charge of Russia's war on Ukraine. INTERNATIONAL* Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang said Beijing would maintain lines of communication with all parties to the war in Ukraine, including Germany, in seeking a ceasefire.
It remains uncertain, however, whether Sri Lanka's biggest bilateral creditor - China - will join the initiative launched by Japan, this year's G7 chair, with the aim of kicking off a series of meetings among Sri Lanka's creditors. "I hope the creation of this platform will become a model case" for debt restructuring of middle-income countries, Suzuki said. Sri Lanka owes $7.1 billion to bilateral creditors, according to official data from its government, with $3 billion owed to China, followed by $2.4 billion to the Paris Club and $1.6 billion to India. The government also needs to renegotiate more than $12 billion of debt in eurobonds with overseas private creditors, and $2.7 billion on other commercial loans. Sri Lanka kicked off talks to rework part of its domestic debt this month and aims to finalise the deal by May.
"As a priority of this year, the G7 will consider how best to help developing countries introduce CBDC consistent with appropriate standards, including the G7 public policy principle for retail CBDC," he said. Outside the G7, China has been leading the pack on issuing a digital currency. G7 central banks have set common standards toward issuing CBDCs as some proceed with experiments. The collapse of crypto exchange FTX last year "was a serious wake-up call" for policymakers to create regulation across borders, he said. Reporting by Leika Kihara in Tokyo; Editing by Jamie FreedOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
TOKYO, March 27 (Reuters) - Japan's business-to-business services inflation picked up in February on a tourism rebound and rising labour costs, data showed, offering the central bank hope that steady wage hikes would aid in sustainably hitting its 2% inflation target. The services producer price index, which measures the prices companies charge each other for services, rose 1.8% in February from a year earlier, up from a 1.6% gain in January, BOJ data showed on Monday. Fees for services such as office cleaning, taxi and software development also rose, reflecting higher labour costs. "For services, the pass-through of rising costs isn't as smooth as those for wholesale goods," said Masato Higashi, head of the BOJ's price statistics division, told a briefing. "But when you look closely, the pass-through (of higher labour costs) is gradually broadening," he said.
Credit Suisse fell 8% in Europe and First Republic tumbled 30%. Banking troubles revived memories of the 2008 financial crisis, when dozens of institutions failed or were bailed out with billions of dollars of government and central bank money. Earlier this week, the franc plunged the most against the dollar in one day since 2015, when the Swiss central bank loosened its currency peg. Japan's Ministry of Finance, Financial Services Agency and Bank of Japan officials met on Friday evening to discuss financial markets. Masato Kanda, vice finance minister for international affairs, told reporters after the trilateral meeting that the government, the central bank and the banking watchdog would coordinate to ensure the stability of the financial system.
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