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☆ Tech roars back, and Eli Lilly sends a welcome signal on its growth prospects
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Jim Cramer said earlier Friday that Nvidia received a do-over from Wall Street . As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

Persons: Jim Cramer, Nvidia, Financials, Love, Lilly, Eli Lilly, Lilly's, haven't, that's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Tech, Nvidia, Broadcom, Wall, Federal, Energy, Citi, and Drug Administration, Fed, Market, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: Ireland, Kisunla, U.S, Europe

☆ The inflation report dashes hopes of a jumbo rate cut next week
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

You can opt-out at any time by visiting our Preferences page or by clicking "unsubscribe" at the bottom of the email. The consumer price index, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, increased 2.5% over the year from August 2023 to this past August, matching the forecast of 2.5% and below July's 2.9% rate. The new data will factor into the Federal Open Market Committee's interest-rate decision next week, with the hot core figure decreasing the odds of a jumbo 50-basis-point cut. Softening but still relatively strong labor market data will also weigh on the Fed's decision. "If that test is met, a reduction in our policy rate could be on the table as soon as the next meeting in September."

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business, Federal

☆ Stock market today: Stocks fall as annual inflation slows but monthly CPI notches surprise increase
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Core inflation rose 0.3% in August, slightly above economists' expectations. Meanwhile, investors dashed their hopes for a 50 basis point rate cut from the Fed next week. AdvertisementUS stocks traded mixed on Wednesday as investors took in last month's inflation report, which showed an unexpected increase in the monthly core consumer price index. Bond yields rose as traders readjusted expectations for a jumbo rate hike of 50 basis points at next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. AdvertisementThe surprise increase led investors to almost completely discount the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut at the Fed's next policy meeting.

Persons: —, Josh Jamner, Jack McIntyre Organizations: Fed, Service, Dow Jones, ClearBridge Investments, Brandywine Global Locations: Here's

☆ Markets get nervous over high core inflation and see the Fed cutting slowly
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stubbornly high core inflation virtually cemented the likelihood of a quarter percentage point cut from the Federal Reserve, which historically has avoided larger moves unless absolutely necessary. Shelter inflation is putting a floor under the CPI and likely keeping the Fed from reducing interest rates by more 25 basis points. "History back to 1990 supports the idea that an initial Fed rate cut of 50 basis points signals an imminent recession (2001 and 2007). "Their first cut will almost certainly be 25 basis points," Colas said. But the Fed, which targets inflation at 2%, prefers core readings as a better longer-term gauge for inflation.

Persons: Dow Jones, —, Nick Colas, Jerome Powell, Colas, That's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, CPI, Fed, Traders, Open Market, PCE

☆ Fed Governor Waller backs interest rate cut at September meeting, open to larger move
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | Jeff Cox Is A Finance Editor With Cnbc.Com Where He Covers All Aspects Of The Markets | Monitors Coverage Of The Financial Markets | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +2 min

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Friday backed an interest rate cut at the upcoming central bank policy meeting in less than two weeks, and indicated he’d be open to a substantial reduction if necessary. Other policymakers recently have advocated easing policy soon, but this is one of the clearest indications it will happen at the Sept. 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. “Determining the pace of rate cuts and ultimately the total reduction in the policy rate are decisions that lie in the future,” Waller added. With inflation and employment near our longer-run goals and the labor market moderating, it is likely that a series of reductions will be appropriate,” he said. Futures market pricing following the jobs report tilted toward a greater likelihood of a quarter percentage point rate reduction this month.

Persons: Christopher Waller, ” Waller, Waller, verbiage, Jerome Powell, —, nonfarm, Dow Jones, ” Organizations: Federal, Council, Foreign Relations, Labor Department, Dow Locations: New York

☆ Atlanta Fed President Bostic says officials can't wait for inflation to hit 2% before cutting
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-04 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic signaled Wednesday that he is ready to start lowering interest rates even though inflation is still running above the central bank's target. The Fed's preferred measure showed inflation running at a 2.5% rate in July, and just a slightly higher 2.6% core rate when excluding food and energy. His comments also come two days before what is expected to be a pivotal nonfarm payrolls report as most economists see the labor market losing momentum. However, the data and our grassroots feedback describe an economy and labor market losing momentum," he said. Indeed, he cited multiple factors indicating that inflation is progressing convincingly back to the Fed's target as the labor market moderates.

Persons: Raphael Bostic, Bostic Organizations: Atlanta Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed's Locations: Atlanta

Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell said Friday he expects the central bank will cut its key interest rate in the near future in response to slower economic growth and cooling inflation. "The labor market is no longer overheated, and conditions are now less tight than those that prevailed before the pandemic. Starting in the spring of 2022, the Fed raised interest rates to a level not seen in nearly two decades as it worked to combat soaring inflation. "Make no mistake, if the labor market shows signs of further cooling, the Fed will cut with conviction," Shah wrote. Lower interest rates will provide some relief to consumer borrowers, but it will not be immediate, according to Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com.

Persons: Jay Powell, Powell, ” Powell, “, Seema Shah, —, Shah, Greg McBride, McBride Organizations: ”, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, midmorning, Market Committee, Management Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S

☆ Stocks gain after Fed’s Powell hints rate cuts are coming
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN —Stocks rose Friday morning as Wall Street cheered a signal from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that long-awaited interest rate cuts are finally coming. Powell said that “the time has come” to ease rates, currently perched at a 23-year high, at a key economic summit in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. He also noted that the labor market has cooled enough not to pressure inflation higher and that the central bank does not want to see more weakening in job market conditions. Some officials also fretted that the softening labor market could weaken considerably if policy stays restrictive for too long. Recent data has shown that US job growth was weaker than previously estimated in the 12 months leading up to March.

Persons: Stocks, Jerome Powell, Powell, there’s, ”, Jack Janasiewicz Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Dow, Nasdaq, Labor Statistics, Solutions, National Association of Realtors, Target, Boeing Locations: New York, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ Americans just got the biggest confirmation yet of an interest rate cut next month — but the job market hangs in the balance
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

He offered details on the Fed's thinking as the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting approaches in September, with all eyes on the first interest rate cut since the pandemic began. AdvertisementIt's all but certain that the Fed will cut rates in September. That leaves the big question of how much — not if — the Fed will cut rates, and the upcoming jobs report will likely shed some light on that question. "Today, the labor market has cooled considerably from its formerly overheated state. "But the inflation and labor market data show an evolving situation.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Jackson, precarity, Austan Goolsbee, we've Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, CME, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Democratic, Chicago Fed

☆ Dollar droops after benign inflation data; kiwi firm before RBNZ decision
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar remained on the back foot on Wednesday after tumbling versus major peers overnight as a benign reading for U.S. producer prices reinforced bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. Risk-sensitive currencies stayed strong after the unexpected softening in inflation buoyed equities, even with crucial U.S. consumer price index figures still looming later on Wednesday. New Zealand's dollar hovered near a four-week high ahead of a Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy decision, with markets split over the potential for a rate cut. The dollar was stable at 147.06 yen as it continued to consolidate around the 147 level this week. The kiwi edged up 0.07% to $0.6081, close to Tuesday's high of $0.60815, a level last seen on July 18.

Persons: CME's, Carol Kong, Sterling, Tony Sycamore Organizations: Australian, New, Reserve Bank of New, Traders, Federal, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, U.S, CPI, CBA, IG Locations: Reserve Bank of New Zealand

☆ Inflation cooled in July, adding to the case for interest rate cuts at the next Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

It's the first time the inflation rate has been below 3% since March 2021, and it adds to the case that the Federal Reserve could cut rates at its next meeting. Over the month, the consumer price index rose 0.2% in July. The Fed is watching for inflation to cool before committing to rate cuts. Many economists think it's well past time for the Fed to cut interest rates and have expressed worries about the rapidly cooling labor market. AdvertisementThe labor market is cooling off, and it might be harder to get a job than a few years ago.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Nick Bunker, Claudia Sahm, Powell Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, Core CPI, of Labor Statistics, Fed, North America, Bureau of Labor Statistics, New Century Advisors, Federal Reserve

☆ Stock market today: Indexes climb as producer inflation comes in cool
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Stocks were higher on Tuesday after PPI showed wholesale inflation was less than expected in July. Investors are now bracing for the consumer inflation reading due out on Wednesday. AdvertisementUS stocks were up on Tuesday after the producer price index for July showed wholesale inflation rose less than expected. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that producer prices increased 0.1% last month compared to estimates of 0.2%. The cooler-than-expected reading should boost optimism for consumer prices to show a decline in inflation when the consumer price index is released on Wednesday.

Persons: —, Chris Zaccarelli, Laxman Narasimhan, Brian Niccol, Elon Musk Organizations: PPI, Investors, Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Fed, Depot, Bank of America, Starbucks, Trump Media, Elon

☆ Trump, Vance double down on call for presidential influence on Fed policy
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( Jessica Dickler | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Joe Raedle | Getty ImagesThe president has no direct control over interest ratesAs it stands, the president exerts no direct control over interest rates. The Federal Reserve sets interest rates, and it operates independently of the White House. Last month, Trump said that if elected he would "bring interest rates way down." Now, however, Trump has cautioned against the Fed lowering rates shortly before the presidential election in November. "I think he's going to do something to probably help the Democrats, I think, if he lowers interest rates."

Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Raedle, Brett House, Trump, Fed Trump, Jerome Powell, Trump's, reappoint Powell, Powell, Greg McBride, Wells Fargo Organizations: Federal Reserve, White, Fed, Columbia Business School, Reserve Act, Republican, National Association of Black Journalists, Markets, U.S, Bloomberg Businessweek, Fox Business, Barclays Locations: Lago, Palm Beach , Florida, Chicago

☆ Markets are counting on the Fed to head off recession with sizeable interest rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | Jeff Cox Is A Finance Editor With Cnbc.Com Where He Covers All Aspects Of The Markets | Monitors Coverage Of The Financial Markets | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +5 min

Disappointing economic data recently generated worries that the Fed missed an opportunity at its meeting last week to, if not cut rates outright, send a clearer signal that easing is on the way. In the past, the Fed has implemented just nine such cuts, and all have come amid extreme duress, according to Bank of America. Lacking a catalyst for an intermeeting cut, the Fed is nonetheless expected to cut rates almost as swiftly as it hiked from March 2022-July 2023. Why wait?”LaVorgna, though, isn’t convinced the Fed is in a life-or-death battle against recession. Still, any quakes in the data, such as Friday’s downside surprise to the nonfarm payrolls numbers, could ignite recession talk quickly.

Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Steven Blitz, ”, Andrew Hollenhorst, ‘, ’ ”, Michael Gapen, Powell, Joseph LaVorgna, “, “ They’ll, isn’t, Goldman Sachs, David Rosenberg Organizations: Federal Reserve, TS Lombard, Fed, Citigroup, Bank of America, Nikko Securities, Rosenberg Research Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Nikko

☆ Opinion | The Economy Is Looking Pre-Recessionary
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The good news is that they can greatly reduce that risk by losing weight, improving their diet and getting more exercise. But I found myself thinking about medical analogies when looking at recent economic data. The United States probably (probably) hasn’t entered a recession yet. But the economy is definitely looking pre-recessionary. And policymakers — which right now basically means the Federal Reserve — need to move quickly to head off the risks of serious economic deterioration.

Persons: who’ve, they’re, hasn’t Organizations: Fed Locations: United States

☆ Everyone is talking about the Sahm recession indicator. Here’s what you need to know
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Sam Meredith | In Samuelmeredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A weaker-than-expected July jobs report on Friday officially triggered the Sahm rule. "We are not in a recession now — contrary the historical signal from the Sahm rule — but the momentum is in that direction," Sahm told CNBC by email on Friday. That frankly is not good enough, we can do better than avoiding a recession," Sahm told CNBC's "The Exchange." Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee meeting at the William McChesney Martin Jr. Federal Reserve Board Building on July 31, 2024 in Washington, DC. In mid-June, Sahm told CNBC that the U.S. central bank risked tipping the economy into contraction by not cutting interest rates sooner.

Persons: Claudia Sahm, Sahm, —, we're, CNBC's, Dario Perkins, Perkins, Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, Andrew Harnik Organizations: Federal, CNBC, U.S . Federal, New Century Advisors, New, Lombard, National Bureau of Economic Research, Federal Reserve, Getty, U.S Locations: U.S, Washington , DC

☆ San Francisco Fed President Daly sees interest rate cuts coming as labor market weakens
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, during the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) economic policy conference in Washington, DC, US, on Friday, Feb. 16, 2024. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly on Monday said she expects that interest rates will be cut later this year but declined to provide a timetable or the extent to which the central bank will ease. At their meeting last week, Fed officials provided some hints that lower rates are coming but were short on specifics. Earlier in the day, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC that the central bank's "restrictive" rates policy doesn't make sense if the economy isn't overheating, which he said it is not. If there are trouble signs with the economy, Goolsbee said the Fed will "fix it."

Persons: Mary Daly, Daly, we've, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of San, National Association of Business Economics, San Francisco Federal, Market, Chicago Fed, CNBC Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Washington , DC, Hawaii

☆ Unemployment unexpectedly rose in July as pressure ramps up for the Fed to cut interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The weak report all but confirms the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, an outcome that was already carrying a near-100% probability heading into the report. AdvertisementFriday's jobs report comes after this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady once again. "I think it's past time for them to cut interest rates," Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, told Business Insider in July. "The question will be whether the totality of the data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks are consistent with rising confidence on inflation and maintaining a solid labor market," Powell said. There were around 3.3 million quits in June and the quits rate was 2.1%.

Persons: —, payrolls, Mark Zandi, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Business, Labor Statistics, Reserve, Stock, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics

☆ Stock market today: Indexes dip after Meta earnings and new labor-market data
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-01 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Indexes slid on Thursday despite a strong earnings report from Meta that sent the stock soaring. New jobless-claims data beat expectations and approached a one-year high, stoking economic concern. Investors are pricing in a 100% chance of Fed rate cuts in September. Shares of Meta soared as much as 11% after the company beat earnings estimates in the most recent quarter and raised its full-year revenue guidance. Qualcomm also beat earnings expectations but saw its stock down 3% Thursday.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Meta, Wednesday's, Qualcomm, Here's Locations: Meta

☆ Australia hits new highs after Powell signals possible rate cut in September; Nikkei tumbles over 2%
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-01 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Top view of Seoul in the morning in autumn 2016. Asia-Pacific markets largely rose on Thursday, after comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that a rate cut could come in September if inflation data remains "encouraging." This comes after the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee meeting concluded Wednesday, where it opted to hold the federal funds rate at its current level of 5.25% to 5.5%. Powell cautioned that a rate cut is not guaranteed, though he also seemed to rule out a 50-basis-point reduction. "I don't want to be really specific about what we're going to do, but that's not something we're thinking about right now," he said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: U.S . Federal, Investors Locations: Seoul, Asia, Pacific, U.S, China, Japan, South Korea

☆ Markets are clamoring for the Fed to start cutting soon: 'What is it they're looking for?'
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-01 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell arrives to speak at a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee meeting at the William McChesney Martin Jr. Federal Reserve Board Building on July 31, 2024 in Washington, DC. If the Federal Reserve is starting to set the table for interest rate reductions, some parts of the market are getting impatient for dinner to be served. Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors, said on CNBC just after the Fed concluded its meeting Wednesday. The Fed needs to start that process back gradually to normal, which means gradually reducing interest rates." If the inflation job is done, or we're on that glide path, it's OK, the Fed can start stepping aside."

Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, Claudia Sahm, Sahm Organizations: Federal Reserve, New Century Advisors, CNBC, Fed Locations: Washington , DC

☆ We just got another sign inflation is cooling
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The data is a welcome sign that inflation is easing, and could add to the Fed's confidence that inflation has slowed enough to allow for rate cuts. AdvertisementIn the past few weeks, Fed officials have consistently said they need more data on cooling inflation and a soft labor market before deciding when (and if) to cut interest rates. In a Wednesday press release ahead of the FOMC meeting, the Fed said inflation is "somewhat elevated," showing inflation has eased closer toward the Fed's 2% target. Related stories"The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals continue to move into better balance," the statement said. That language marks a shift in the Fed's focus away from focusing wholly on inflation and toward ensuring both inflation and the labor market continue to cool before cutting rates.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell Organizations: Service, New Labor Department, Bloomberg, Business, Fed, Bank of America Locations: Bank

☆ Fed holds rates steady and notes progress on inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

watch nowWASHINGTON – Federal Reserve officials on Wednesday held short-term interest rates steady but indicated that inflation is getting closer to its target, which could open the door for future interest rate cuts. They also preserved a declaration that more progress is needed before rate reductions can happen. "In recent months, there has been some further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective." Price pressures off 2022 peakEconomic data of late has indicated that price pressures are well off the boil from their peak in mid-2022, when inflation hit its highest level since the early 1980s. The Fed's preferred measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, shows inflation around 2.5% annually, though other gauges indicate slightly higher readings.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Stocks, Price Organizations: WASHINGTON – Federal, Gross

☆ Interest rates remain steady once again — but it's likely the Fed will cut rates in September
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewThe nation's central bank didn't give interest rate relief to Americans — yet. On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee announced it would be leaving interest rates unchanged, continuing the pause that began last fall. And with the labor market slowing down while avoiding a recession, the Fed might have the evidence it needs to cut interest rates at its next meeting in September. However, predictions point to a rate cut — CME FedWatch, which estimates probabilities of interest rate changes based on the markets, showed markets think it's far more likely than not that rates will ease. Related storiesThe high interest rates have meant it's more expensive for Americans to borrow money for things like mortgages, credit cards, and auto loans.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Powell, Michele Raneri, Donald Trump —, Trump, Elizabeth Warren, John Hickenlooper, Sheldon Whitehouse Organizations: Service, Federal, Market Committee, Business, Fed, TransUnion, Fox News, Democratic Locations: May's, Sens

☆ Here's everything you need to know about the Fed decision coming Wednesday
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Market pricing currently indicates an absolute certainty that the Fed will approve its first reduction in more than four years — when it meets Sept. 17-18. They don't want investors to start pricing in a rate cut coming in September and there's literally nothing else that could possibly happen," he said. "Opening the door for that rate cut is probably the most appropriate thing for them at this point," Reynolds added. Expectations for easingGlenmede expects that starting in September, the Fed could cut at each of the three remaining meetings. The Fed will not provide an update on its quarterly summary of economic projections at this meeting.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Chris Kleponis, they've, Michael Reynolds, Reynolds, there's, it'll, Powell, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Mericle, Bill English, We've Organizations: Banking, Housing, Urban, Capitol, AFP, Getty, Glenmede, Fed Locations: Washington ,, Yale, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

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