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Kevin O'Leary once again warned that the Federal Reserve's sharp interest-rate hikes could cause economic chaos. The “Shark Tank” investor is worried about the impact that tightening campaign could have on small businesses. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. You can't say that about small business anymore," he added. "But 60% of America is small business.
Persons: Kevin O'Leary, " O'Leary, O'Leary, Biden, We've, Fox Organizations: Service, Fox Business, Canada's Conservative Party Locations: Wall, Silicon, America, That's
It's likely that the lower spot prices for iron ore in recent weeks are encouraging traders and steel mills to boost imports. The problems at Country Garden are stoking fears of contagion in China's property sector, which is facing a cash crunch. China iron ore imports vs priceLOANS TUMBLEAdding to the property woes was data released on Tuesday showing China's industrial output and retail sales slowed and undershot forecasts. Another potential factor supporting iron ore imports is the low state of port inventories, which last week dropped to the lowest in just over three years. They are also below the 138.6 million metric tons in the same week in 2022 and the 127.2 million in 2021.
Persons: Fortescue, David Gray, Refinitiv, It's, SteelHome, Robert Birsel Organizations: Port Hedland, REUTERS, HK, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Port, Pilbara, Western Australia, LAUNCESTON, Australia, China, Beijing, Singapore, China's
Tumbling rouble claws back ground as central bank to meet
  + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
Putin's economic adviser Maxim Oreshkin earlier said the central bank could ensure that the pace of lending drops to sustainable levels with higher rates. "The central bank has all the tools to normalise the situation in the near future." Asked earlier whether it might make an emergency hike from the current 8.5%, the central bank declined to comment. "The central bank is not fully in control," independent Moscow-based economist Ian Melkumov told Reuters. "The central bank doesn't want to kill the economy and businesses in the same way it had to last year," he said.
Persons: Rouble, Vladimir Putin's, rouble, Putin, Maxim Oreshkin, Oreshkin, Denis Popov, Popov, Matt Vogel, REUTERS Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, Vladimir Solovyev, Ivan, Timothy Ash, Ian Melkumov, Alexander Marrow, Marc Jones, Gareth Jones, Philippa Fletcher, Christina Fincher Organizations: TASS, of Russia's, FIM, Moscow News Agency, Handout, REUTERS Central Bank Governor, Popular, Kremlin, Reuters, BlueBay Asset Management, Thomson Locations: MOSCOW, Ukraine, Moscow, Russia, London
A Wall Street sign is pictured outside the New York Stock Exchange in New York, October 28, 2013. "The sell off in back-end rates is concerning," Anshul Sehgal, Goldman Sachs co-head of U.S. rates trading, said in an emailed note to clients. Futures on Wall Street , , are signaling a slightly higher open, although European equities (.STOXX) are shedding around 0.4% - playing catch up following a late drop on Wall Street on Friday - and Asian shares were a fraction lower on Monday. The more upbeat Wall Street mood might be because a tightening in financial conditions could give the Fed another excuse to ease off the pedal when it comes to further tightening or even cut rates sooner. Meanwhile, the number of companies reporting earnings is set to slow sharply, with 33 S&P 500 (.SPX) and 55 STOXX 600 companies reporting this week, according to Deutsche Bank.
Persons: Carlo Allegri, Samuel Indyk, Sehgal, Goldman Sachs, Goldman's Sehgal, June's, Bowman, Bernadette Baum Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Treasury, Wall, Fed, CPI, Deutsche Bank, Reuters, Tyson Foods, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S
China's youth unemployment rate may be severely skewed, a Peking University professor wrote. While official statistics for March cited a 19.7% rate, Zhang Dandan estimated it's closer to 46.5%. According to Zhang Dandan, whose findings were recently published in the financial magazine Caixin, March's youth unemployment rate could have been as much as 46.5% when accounting for 16 million non-students not actively seeking work, Reuters reported. This is more than double that month's official 19.7% rate, as published by the National Bureau of Statistics. To be sure, the US Labor Department's unemployment rate doesn't include Americans who have stopped looking for work.
Persons: Zhang Dandan, COVID Organizations: Peking University, Service, Reuters, National Bureau of Statistics, US Labor Locations: Wall, Silicon
But management of central bank balance sheets could help - even if central bankers are keen to publicly disassociate the process from monetary policy goals per se. But the U.S. central bank can be more comfortable nearing peak rates with inflation much closer to target than Europe's central banks - where future trade-offs may be more tempting. G3 central bank balance sheetsFed share of Treasury marketReuters GraphicsBACKGROUND NOISE? Ramsden laced his comments with caution about not confusing the run-down of the BoE's "asset purchase facility" with its central policy task. And they reckoned an increase in the volume of QT should theoretically lead to higher term premia in euro bond markets.
Persons: Dave Ramsden, BoE, Ramsden, there's, Mike Dolan, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Bank of England, European Central Bank, Deutsche Bank, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: U.S
British retail sales beat expectations in June
  + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
LONDON, July 21 (Reuters) - British retail sales rose more than expected in June, boosted by unusually hot weather and a rebound in food sales after a dip the month before when public holidays disrupted normal spending patterns, official figures showed on Friday. Retail sales volumes in June were 0.7% higher than in May, the Office for National Statistics said, a bigger increase than the 0.2% forecast by economists in a Reuters poll. Sales volumes were 1.0% lower than a year earlier, beating economists' forecasts for a 1.5% decline. "Retail sales grew strongly, with food sales bouncing back from the effects of the extra bank holiday, partly helped by good weather, and department stores and furniture shops also having a strong month," ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said. The ONS data showed a 7.8% annual rise in the value of retail sales excluding fuel.
Persons: Grant Fitzner, King Charles ', Sterling, David Milliken, Kate Holton, Andrew Heavens Organizations: National Statistics, U.S, Industry, British Retail Consortium, Thomson
Deutsche Bank analysts recently shared their 29 top stock picks for the next 12 months. Upcoming rate hikes and a looming recession have kept investors apprehensive about the future of the stock market — but not enough to impede the ongoing bull rally. 29 top stock picks for the next yearIn a report from July 7, Deutsche Bank analysts updated their quarterly Fresh Money List, which reflects their top investment ideas to hold over the next twelve months. Since the creation of this list in 2017, Deutsche Bank's basket of stocks has outperformed the S&P 500, returning 167% versus the S&P's 124% gain. The full list of Deutsche Bank's updated basket is below, along with each company's ticker, market capitalization, price target, sector, and respective analyst commentary.
Persons: That's, Charles Schwab's Joe Mazzola, Dave Sekera, Diane Jaffee Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Nasdaq, Deutsche
But even as the dust settles from a string of government seizures of failed midsized banks, the forces that sparked the regional banking crisis in March are still at play. What is coming will likely be the most significant shift in the American banking landscape since the 2008 financial crisis. JPMorgan shares are up 7.6% this year, while the KBW Regional Banking Index is down more than 20%. Some of those pressures will be visible as regional banks disclose second-quarter results this month. "The fundamental issue with the regional banking system is the underlying business model is under stress," said incoming Lazard CEO Peter Orszag.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, Brian Graham, Banks, KeyCorp, Matt O'Connor, Peter Orszag, SVB, Chris Wolfe, Wolfe, you've, You've, Goldman Sachs, Lazard's Orszag, Orszag, Janet Yellen, Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Klaros, Graham Organizations: First, JPMorgan, Silicon Valley Bank, CNBC, Klaros, Deutsche Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Justice Department Locations: First Republic, Silicon Valley, SVB, KBW, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Republic
The latest drubbing in the world's biggest bond markets, which last year suffered a record rout, does not yet point to any dysfunction in the markets themselves, investors said. But in echoes of the volatile conditions seen during March's banking crisis, trading in euro zone benchmark German government bond futures were briefly interrupted on Thursday when bond yields spiked. U.S. and British 10-year yields were also set to end the week more than 20 bps higher , . ING said earlier on Friday that this week's data was strong enough to push yields higher even if jobs numbers interrupt the moves. "It won't be as bad as that, but higher rates and higher yields could lead to negative returns and pressure returns on equity markets."
Persons: Mike Riddell, Jan von Gerich, Mark Dowding, Gael Fichan, Fichan, BlueBay's Dowding, Yoruk Bahceli, Samuel Indyk, Harry Robertson, Hugh Lawson Organizations: U.S, Federal, Allianz Global Investors, Fed, of, European Central Bank, BlueBay Asset Management, Syz, ING, Global, Thomson Locations: Europe, United States, Australia, British, Germany, Britain, U.S, of England
China's Xi Jinping warned Vladimir Putin against using nuclear weapons, The Financial Times reported. If Putin ignored Xi and acted on his nuclear threats to Ukraine, it'd humiliate the Chinese leader, an analyst said. He has provided the Russian president with crucial economic and diplomatic support amid sanctions and international isolation. This gives him leverage over the Russian president in seeking to deter him from a potentially catastrophic escalation of the conflict. Putin has previously shown a willingness to defy China, declaring he'd position nuclear weapons in Belarus in an apparent snub to Xi in March.
Persons: China's Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Xi, Putin, it'd, , Vladimir Putin of, Putin's, Dmitry Peskov, Sumantra Maitra, China Xi, Ali Wyne, Xi Jinping, Wagner Organizations: Financial Times, Service, Ukraine, Putin, Wednesday, European Union, Eurasia Group, Russian Locations: Ukraine, Moscow, Vladimir Putin of Russia, China, Russian, Russia, Beijing, Belarus, West
"We are positioned for a very big bond rally, and we think that risky assets are completely underestimating the risk of a recession or something nasty happening," he added. (.MERW0G1)An early sign that the bond outlook is improving came last week with data showing euro zone business growth stalled in June. In response, German bond yields, which move inversely to prices, posted their second biggest daily drop since March. But highlighting how hard economic data has become to read, higher-than-expected U.S. first quarter growth and German inflation sent yields surging on Thursday. Major central banks fighting a surge in inflation have collectively raised borrowing costs by over 3,750 bps since September 2021.
Persons: Jason Reed, Mike Riddell, Viraj Patel, Vanda's Patel, BoE, Urban, Jill Hirzel, Dhara Ranasinghe, Harry Robertson, Catherine Evans Organizations: U.S . Federal, REUTERS, Bond, U.S, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Reuters, Allianz Global Investors, Vanda Research, Deutsche Bank, General Investment Management, Insight Investment, Thomson Locations: Washington, hawkish, Canada, Britain, Norway, Sintra, Germany, United States, U.S
What could break as interest rates rise?
  + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Sweden, where rates rose again on Thursday, is one to watch with most homeowners' mortgages moving in lockstep with rates. Reuters Graphics2/ REAL ESTATE: PART 2Having taken advantage of the low rates era to borrow aplenty and buy up property assets, the commercial real estate sector is grappling with higher debt refinancing costs as rates rise. "The single most important thing is interest rates. But not just interest rates; what it is equally important is the predictability of rates," said Thomas Mundy, EMEA head of capital markets strategy at real estate firm JLL. "If we were settled on an interest rate, real estate prices could adjust.
Persons: Richard Portes, Thomas Mundy, Banks, Florian, Ielpo, Jerome Powell, Markus Allenspach, Julius Baer, Nick Kraemer, Wagner, Vladimir Putin's, Putin, Tina Fordham, Chiara Elisei, Naomi Rovnick, Nell Mackenzie, Karin Strohecker, Vincent Flasseur, Kripa Jayaram, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alison Williams Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Reuters, Federal, Finance, London Business School, Lombard, Federal Reserve, Casino, Sweden's SBB, Fordham Global Foresight, Thomson Locations: Britain, Norway, Russia, Sweden, lockstep, London's, City, RUSSIA, Ukraine
It represented the most significant affront to President Vladimir Putin's 23-year reign. It has also fed paranoia and put a spotlight on Aleksey Dyumin, Putin's ex-bodyguard turned governor. A brief and ultimately aborted attempt at a coup d'état by Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin represented the most significant affront to President Vladimir Putin's 23-year reign. President Vladimir Putin (L) and Aleksey Dyumin, the governor of Tula and Putin's former personal bodyguard, in Moscow in 2016. Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and Tula Governor Aleksey Dyumin visit Russian writer Lev Tolstoy's former home in 2016.
Persons: Yevgeny Prigozhin, Vladimir Putin's, Aleksey Dyumin, Putin's, , Vladimir Putin —, Prigozhin, Vladimir Fesenko, trundling, Sergey Shoigu, Valery Gerasimov, There's Prigozhin, Wagner, Putin, Belarus —, defenestration, Dyumin, Shoigu, Vladimir Putin, Mikhail Svetlov, Igor Girkin, Alexander Lukashenko —, Dyumin's, Dmitry Peskov, Boris Yeltsin, Viktor Yanukoyvch, Girkin, Andrei Gurulyov, Russia's, Lev Tolstoy's, Tatiana Stanovaya, Alexandra Prokopenko, Prokopenko, Sergei Surovikin, Surovikin, Viktor Zolotov, Zolotov, Alexander Lukashenko, Chris Weafer Organizations: Service, Kremlin, Kommersant, Angry Patriots, Russia's First Channel, Prigozhin, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Central Bank, Washington Post, New York Times, Defense Ministry, Moscow Times, National Guard, Ministry, Macro Locations: Russian, Russia, Rostov, Ukraine, Moscow, Voronezh, Lipetsk, St, Petersburg, Minsk, Belarus, Russia's Tula, Kremlin, Tula, Dyumin's Tula, St Petersburg, Prigozhin, Crimea, Berlin, Novosibirsk, Osipovichi, Africa, Syria
Michael Cuggino, the president and portfolio manager of the Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds, says the current economic situation is a tale of two sides. The firm has two fixed-income funds, an aggressive growth equities fund, and a diversified fund known as the Permanent Portfolio that has been around since 1982. Last year, the permanent portfolio fund outperformed 93% of similar funds, according to Morningstar data. So far this year, it has been the growth stocks that are benefiting. The top four signals he's keeping an eye on are, first, a rapid increase in the unemployment rate, which would hit consumer spending and permeate other parts of the economy.
Persons: Michael Cuggino, Cuggino, It's, it's Charles Schwab Organizations: Federal, Morningstar, Companies, BHP Group, Exxon, Chevron, Nvidia, Broadcom, Apple Locations: Freeport, McMoRan, Australia
These stocks are on the verge of forming a bullish chart pattern
  + stars: | 2023-06-19 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
The market just enjoyed a big relief rally and some stocks are on the verge of breaking out even higher, according to a bullish chart pattern. CNBC Pro used FactSet data to screen the S & P 500 for stocks that are about to form a so-called "golden cross," in which their 50-day moving average breaks above the 200-day trend line. This has been a reliable bullish signal that historically indicates strong rallies on the horizon. Shares have gained 7% this month after the company reported first-quarter results in line with analysts' expectations, according to FactSet. Dow-component Honeywell International is also on the brink of a "golden cross."
Persons: Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Organizations: CNBC, Software, Autodesk, Honeywell, BlackRock Locations: Capital One
The MSCI Europe SMID index of European small to mid-cap firms (.MIEU000D0PEU) is trading near 2008 lows versus the wider market in terms of valuations, including both price/earnings and price-to-book ratios. The bank's small cap basket is invested across sectors, or 'sector neutral', to make it "less prone to the ups and downs of cyclical acceleration and deceleration." But M&A remains a supportive theme, said Amundi's Matti, as big players seeking external growth can look to the small cap sector for niche expertise to add to their portfolios. "When people are trying to find alpha to add to their portfolio, small caps tend to be the place to look at," said Matti. "Ultimately, they (small caps) are a rich hunting ground for long-term investors."
Persons: Dash, Emmanuel Cau, Amundi, Cristina Matti, Amundi's Matti, Matti, Graham Secker, Morgan Stanley, , Bernie Ahkong, Morgan Stanley's Secker, Thomas McGarrity, Lucy Raitano, Susan Fenton Organizations: Barclays, Energy, Reuters Graphics, O’Connor, Alpha, UBS Asset Management, Data, RBC Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: Europe, Amundi
Recent updates from bank executives reinforce the idea that while deposits have stabilized, the industry faces pressure from rising funding costs, weaker lending and coming regulations, according to Piper Sandler analysts. The analysts named two picks for the current environment: "From here, our favorite large regional is Fifth Third Bank , and we find U.S. Bank a compelling value for patient investors," Siefers wrote. Regional bank stocks have r ebounded off the year's lows in recent weeks. The analyst said that customers' move away from non-interest bearing deposits and falling demand for loans have prompted several regional banks to lower their 2023 guidance for net interest income. Fifth Third Bank is "now among the most conservative on through-the-cycle [deposit] assumptions and preparedness for a sustained challenging environment," Siefers wrote.
Persons: Piper Sandler, Scott Siefers, Siefers, Piper Sander, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Fifth Third Bank, U.S, Bank, Silicon Valley Bank Locations: Silicon
The recovery in China has been much slower than what other major countries experienced when they lifted their pandemic restrictions. Still, the Chinese consumer has proved to be resilient in the face of these broader economic challenges. It marked the fastest pace of growth since the first quarter of 2022, fueled by higher spending from Chinese consumers. Club stock results Recent financial results from our China-exposed companies show that Chinese consumers have been holding up even as broader economic recovery is delayed. China is a growth market for each company and improvement in economic activity there should be a catalyst for these stocks.
Persons: Estee Lauder, , Ting Lu, WYNN, hasn't, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Jason Lee Organizations: Starbucks, Wynn Resorts, WYNN, China Index Academy, National Bureau of Statistics, Club, Gaming, Prestige, CNBC Locations: China, China's, Beijing, Macao, Asia, SBUX
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSynovus CEO Kevin Blair: We've been able to grow deposits despite March's bank strugglesSynovus CEO Kevin Blair joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the current situation with regional banks, how the bank can grow earnings, and more.
Persons: Kevin Blair, We've
OECD sees limited growth pick-up as rate hikes weigh
  + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Leigh Thomas | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Growth would then accelerate only slightly next year to 2.9% - unchanged from March's forecast - as the impact of rate hikes by major central banks over the last year increasingly drags on private investment, starting with housing markets. The U.S. Federal Reserve's main interest rate was seen peaking soon at 5.25-5.5%, with "modest" rate cuts in the second half of 2024. The OECD forecast the U.S. economy would grow 1.6% this year before slowing to 1% in 2024, with the lagged effect of rate hikes hitting the world's biggest economy particularly hard. In March, the OECD saw growth of 0.8% in 2023 and 1.4% in 2024. Similarly, UK growth was seen rising from 0.3% in 2023 to 1% in 2024 as real income growth starts to improve.
Persons: nudging, Leigh Thomas, Mark Potter, Bernadette Baum Organizations: OECD, Organisation for Economic Cooperation, Development, World Bank, Reuters, U.S, Federal, ECB, The Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Central, PARIS, Paris
The unemployment rate climbed to 3.7% in May, according to the jobs report on Friday. This monthly job growth came in far above the forecast of 180,000. Job openings data for April was released by the BLS on Wednesday. Data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed that after a few months of job openings consecutively falling, there was an uptick from March to April. The number of layoffs and discharges fell by 264,000 from March to April to 1.6 million, according to the latest JOLTS report.
Persons: , Daniel Zhao, Glassdoor's, Nick Bunker, Nela Richardson Organizations: Service, payrolls, Labor Statistics, BLS, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Labor, Bank of America Institute, Bank of America
Borrowing costs, or bond yields, in the benchmark euro area issuer are down at least 20 basis points (bps) this week , . Yet this week's notable moves suggest investors are plumping with the view that easing inflation and recession risks are strong bond buy signals. Traders now expect the ECB hikes to peak at around 3.7% by September, suggesting two more hikes from 3.25% currently. COMPLICATEDInvestors cautioned that the European inflation outlook remained more complicated than in the United States, where inflation broadly is down sharply from peaks. This week's fall in borrowing costs followed sharp rises the previous two weeks on bets for more rate hikes.
Persons: Kaspar Hense, Flavio Carpenzano, It's, Cosimo Marasciulo, Marasciulo, BlueBay's Hense, Oliver Eichmann, DWS, Eichmann, Yoruk Bahceli, Harry Robertson, Dhara Ranasinghe, Susan Fenton Organizations: Bank, British, Thursday's, Traders, BlueBay Asset Management, Capital Group, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, General Investment Management, Bank of England, NatWest, Pictet Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: Germany, United States, Europe, Amundi, U.S, Britain, DWS
Weakness in China's manufacturing sector has been matched by soft outcomes in other important parts of the world's second-biggest economy. Rather it is construction and manufacturing that propel commodity demand, especially for steel raw material iron ore and for copper. The softness in those sectors is likely to show up in commodity imports in coming months, but not yet. Seaborne iron ore imports are expected at about 93.29 million tonnes, according to Refinitiv data, which would be stronger than the 90.44 million tonnes recorded by customs in April. If this is the case, it's likely that they may consider trimming imports in coming months, especially if the run of soft economic data continues.
Persons: it's, Robert Birsel Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Refinitiv Oil Research, Global, Brent, Singapore, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, China, March's
In the 20-city version of the index, all 20 of the cities saw home prices rise month-over-month. "That said, the challenges posed by current mortgage rates and the continuing possibility of economic weakness are likely to remain a headwind for housing prices for at least the next several months." "A shortage of listings, plentiful jobs, and strong wage growth are largely offsetting the headwind to housing from high mortgage rates," Adams told Insider. Their reasons include high mortgage rates, historically low affordability, and a potential recession. Below, we've listed in descending order the six cities in the Case-Shiller 20-city index that posted month-over-month growth of at least 2%.
Persons: Craig J, Lazzara, Bill Adams, Adams, Suisse's Ray Farris, Rosenberg Research's David Rosenberg, Ian Shepherdson, American Enterprise Institute's Desmond Lachman, Skylar Olsen Organizations: Home, NSA, Redfin, Comerica Bank, American Enterprise Locations: Denver, Detroit, San Francisco, San Diego, Seattle, Minneapolis, West Coast, Miami , Florida, Tampa , Florida, Charlotte, North Carolina
Total: 25