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☆ Recession fears have peaked, which historically has been a great sign for stocks, BofA survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Professional investors are growing less pessimistic about the economy, which could mean good things for stocks. "Prior peaks in recession fear were big turning points in asset prices," wrote Michael Hartnett, Bank of America's chief investment strategist. In fact, a net 50% of respondents to the BofA survey say they see a slowing global economy over the next 12 months. That, too, is a potentially good sign for markets, as it represents an improvement from the peak of economic fears. "As with 'recession fear' ... asset prices have inflected higher whenever monetary policy was seen as restrictive in the past 20 years."

☆ Morning bid: Dodging a downturn
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Global investors have fretted endlessly about a 2023 recession for the major global economies for more than six months. And Tuesday's latest economic healthcheck showed that the severe hit to Chinese economic activity from the draconian lockdown policies was actually much less than feared. The survey showed that investors' recession expectations peaked at a net 77% of respondents in November but have fallen to 68% in January. The BofA survey showed fund managers may have already repositioned, however, as their allocation to U.S. equities dived in January and a net 39% said they were underweight while preferring euro zone stocks.

☆ The S&P 500 could return 16% in 2023 as a contrarian indicator sends bullish signals, says Bank of America
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Bank of America's Sell Side Indicator is nearing a "Buy" signal, as Wall Street sentiment remains bearish on stocks. The indicator is part of the firm's forecast for 16% returns in the S&P 500 in 2023. BofA's Sell Side Indicator, which tracks strategists' average recommended allocation for stocks, is nearing a "Buy" signal, and is part of the firm's view for 16% returns in the S&P 500 in 2023. In 2022, the average recommended allocation to stocks fell by 6 percentage points, and the S&P 500 shed more than 19%. In the note, BofA analysts pointed out that Wall Street recommended underweighting equities through the bull market of the 1980s and 1990s, as well as the 2009-to-2020 bull market.

☆ The 'pain trade' is for stocks to rally because investors are so bearish, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A big rebound for the stock market could prove unwelcome news to many professional investors, according to Bank of America. "We say Jan/Feb 'pain trade' is up for bond yields & risk assets. ... [fund manager survey] investors say best performing asset in '23 to be government bonds & most overweight bonds vs stocks since Apr'09," the note said. While stocks are well off their lows of the year, investors appeared to turn bearish again in recent weeks. There were some signs in the survey that investors were starting to become less bearish, according to Bank of America.

☆ Dollar near one-week high as traders prepare for Powell, payrolls tests
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

China's offshore yuan traded near a one-week high as traders returned to wagering on a reopening from strangling COVID-19 curbs. The dollar slipped 0.07% to 138.60 yen , as the pair continued to consolidate following a bounce from a three-month low of 137.50 on Monday. The euro ticked up 0.15% to $1.03435, lifting from a one-week low reached earlier on Wednesday at $1.0319. The Aussie rose 0.11% to $0.66945, consolidating in the middle of its range of the past couple of weeks. Optimism about a China reopening was balanced against an easing in Australian inflation, reducing the pressure for Reserve Bank rate hikes, and weak Chinese purchasing manager surveys.

☆ Dollar near one-week high as traders prepare for Powell speech, payrolls tests
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

China's offshore yuan traded near a one-week high as traders returned to wagering on a reopening from strangling Covid-19 curbs. The dollar slipped 0.07% to 138.60 yen , as the pair continued to consolidate following a bounce from a three-month low of 137.50 on Monday. The euro ticked up 0.15% to $1.03435, lifting from a one-week low reached earlier on Wednesday at $1.0319. The Aussie rose 0.11% to $0.66945, consolidating in the middle of its range of the past couple of weeks. Optimism about a China reopening was balanced against an easing in Australian inflation, reducing the pressure for Reserve Bank rate hikes, and weak Chinese purchasing manager surveys.

The average year-to-date losses on Thanksgiving days in these years was 10.5%, and the average rise post-Thanksgiving through Dec. 31 was 1.5%. The S&P 500's year-to-date loss on Thanksgiving Thursday this year was 15.5%, having been down as much as 27% in mid-October. chartIf ever there was a year Wall Street was primed to register an above-average whoosh in the last few trading weeks of the year, this is it. Even beyond investors' instinctive "FOMO" (fear of missing out) on the upswing underway, positioning is extremely light and portfolios are historically underweight stocks. Relative to average positioning over the past 10 years, investors' biggest underweight position this month is in stocks.

☆ The S&P 500 has been rallying, but investor sentiment is still very bearish
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P 500 has been rallying, but investor sentiment is still very bearish. Nearly 60% of traders say it feels like the U.S. is in an economic recession or will be by the end of 2022. One interesting tidbit on the Schwab survey: despite the cautious tone, most respondents don't seem to have sustained too much damage to their portfolios. Schwab traders (financial standing vs. year ago) Better off/Much better off: 25% About the same: 36% Much worse off/worse off: 37% Wow. These Schwab traders must be pretty smart.

☆ Oil prices slip on OPEC cut in demand forecast, China Covid cases
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices extended losses in early Asian trade on Tuesday after OPEC cut its 2022 global demand forecast, while rising Covid-19 case numbers in China clouded the outlook for fuel consumption in the world's top crude importing nation. Brent crude futures fell 39 cents, or 0.4%, to $92.75 a barrel by 0133 GMT after settling down 3% on Monday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $85.31 a barrel, down 56 cents, or 0.7%, after tumbling 3.5% in the previous session. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut its 2022 global oil demand growth forecast for a fifth time since April, citing mounting economic challenges including high inflation and rising interest rates. "The market is currently defying looming supply risks, despite expectations that the latest demand downgrade could be supply-negative for OPEC oil output," the analysts said, referring to imminent European Union sanctions on Russian oil exports.

☆ Oil prices slip on OPEC cut in demand forecast, China COVID cases
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Florence Tan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Oil prices extended losses in early Asian trade on Tuesday after OPEC cut its 2022 global demand forecast, while rising COVID-19 case numbers in China clouded the outlook for fuel consumption in the world's top crude importing nation. Brent crude futures fell 39 cents, or 0.4%, to $92.75 a barrel by 0133 GMT after settling down 3% on Monday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $85.31 a barrel, down 56 cents, or 0.7%, after tumbling 3.5% in the previous session. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut its 2022 global oil demand growth forecast for a fifth time since April, citing mounting economic challenges including high inflation and rising interest rates. "The market is currently defying looming supply risks, despite expectations that the latest demand downgrade could be supply-negative for OPEC oil output," the analysts said, referring to imminent European Union sanctions on Russian oil exports.

WASHINGTON, Nov 13 (Reuters) - The global economic outlook is even gloomier than projected last month, the International Monetary Fund said on Sunday, citing a steady worsening in purchasing manager surveys in recent months. The global lender last month cut its global growth forecast for 2023 to 2.7% from a previous forecast of 2.9%. In a blog prepared for a summit of G20 leaders in Indonesia, the IMF said recent high-frequency indicators "confirm that the outlook is gloomier," particularly in Europe. "The challenges that the global economy is facing are immense and weakening economic indicators point to further challenges ahead," the IMF said, adding that the current policy environment was "unusually uncertain." That in turn posed "increasing risks of a sovereign debt crisis for vulnerable economies," the IMF said.

The S&P is 10.6% above its Oct. 12 closing low for 2022, though still down 17% for the year. "If you're sitting in cash and the market rallies, you might think you were greedy waiting for a bigger discount." Institutional investors' exposure to stocks was low going into Thursday's inflation report. Last month's fund manager survey from BofA Global Research showed investors' cash levels at their highest since April 2001. Lewis said he had not seen so-called real money – a term for mutual funds, pension funds and other non-leveraged market investors – participating in Thursday's rally, though he saw no evidence of selling from that cohort, either.

☆ Analysis: As U.S. stocks rip higher, investors hunt for signs of market bottom
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The current gain – which has seen the S&P 500 bounce about 6.5% last week's fresh intraday low for 2022 – comes on the heels of several rebounds throughout the year that eventually crumbled. However, the index has not been above that level since March even as the S&P 500 continued making new lows. The put/call ratio is yet to approach a 10-day average of at least 1.2 that has historically indicated that "you are more in the ballpark of panic and fear and close to a market low," he said. The current bear market has also been less severe than many past downturns. The S&P 500 slid as much as 25.4% this year, while bear markets since 1929 have seen an average decline of 35%, according to BofA.

Oct 18 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeeverWhisper it, but the rebound underway on Wall Street - which is lifting markets and risk appetite everywhere - may have legs. This should put Asian markets on a positive footing on Wednesday. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterU.S. earnings are rolling in nicely, with some notable beats like Bank of America and Goldman Sachs. The issues that crushed markets this year - rapid tightening of policy and financial conditions, growth fears, sticky inflation and messy fiscal policy - haven't gone away. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ U.S. factory output solid in September; builder sentiment slumps further
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Dan Burns | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The two data points out Tuesday illustrate the uneven impact the U.S. central bank's rate hikes are having so far on the economy. Manufacturing output rose 0.4% last month, keeping pace with an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in August, the Federal Reserve said on Tuesday. Overall industrial production rose 0.4%, after slipping 0.1% the prior month. The rate hikes have torpedoed activity in the housing sector, and Wednesday's data from the National Association of Home Builders reinforced that. "And given expectations for ongoing elevated interest rates due to actions by the Federal Reserve, 2023 is forecasted to see additional single-family building declines as the housing contraction continues."

☆ Investor survey signals start of "policy capitulation" - BofA
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

MILAN, Oct 18 (Reuters) - Investors raised cash levels further in October as sentiment towards the economic outlook remained close to max bearishness, the latest global fund manager survey (FMS) by BofA showed on Tuesday, although expectations of a policy pivot grew. "FMS screams macro capitulation, investor capitulation, start of policy capitulation," BofA said in the survey. The share of investors anticipating lower short-term rates in the next 12 months doubled to 28% in October from 14% in September and versus only 5% in March, it said. BofA polled 371 panelists overseeing $1.1 trillion in assets between October 7 and October 13. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Danilo Masoni, editing by Alun JohnOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Investors are nearing capitulation and setting up for 'another bear rally,' BofA survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

For the third prong of BofA's capitulation test, the policy outlook also is getting closer, with respondents seeing interest rate cuts and lower bond yields ahead. However, investors are much closer to peak-fear capitulation when it comes to the economy and market outlook. A net 72% of survey respondents see global growth declining over the next year, just off the all-time low. However, he also noted that the rising pessimism has still been met with positive flows to equity funds, "suggesting no sign yet of capitulation from retail/institutional investors." The survey indicated the most crowded trade to be long the U.S. dollar, followed by short U.S. stocks and long ESG assets.

☆ Morning Bid: Mini budget, major turmoil
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Henry NichollsA look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman DagaWhat was meant to be a mini-budget is still thundering across financial markets. read moreAsian stocks markets and currencies extended their downward journey, burdened by the gloomy growth outlook, while dollar bulls pushed the currency to yet another two-decade high. "Indeed a recession in Europe in particular is already well anticipated, with 92% of our European Fund Manager survey respondents expecting one in the coming 12 months," BofA said. Elsewhere, the energy crisis in Europe intensified as European authorities investigated what Germany, Denmark and Sweden said were attacks which had caused major leaks into the Baltic Sea from two Russian gas pipelines. The energy crisis between Europe and Moscow has already battered major Western economies, sent gas prices surging and sparked a hunt for alternative supplies.

☆ Analysis: Crowd of dollar bulls raises risk of violent pullback
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Some investors worry the dollar trade has become excessively crowded, raising the risk of a sharp unwind if the case for owning the currency changes and investors try to exit their positions all at once. International Monetary Market speculators held a net long U.S. dollar position of $10.23 billion for the week ended Sept. 20. Barring a brief period of peak pandemic-related uncertainty, broad net options positioning data going back to 2014 shows U.S. dollar long positions are the most stretched ever, according to Morgan Stanley. While a hotter-than-expected u.s. inflation report in August dashed those hopes and sent the dollar higher, the dangers stemming from the crowded dollar trade have only grown, investors said. But with the dollar scaling new multi-decade highs, positioning for a pullback can be painful.

☆ The definitive guide to getting started in real-estate investing
▼ + stars: | 2020-07-21 | by ( Business Insider | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

But have you ever considered real-estate investing? If you aren't yet a subscriber to Investing Insider, you can sign up here. Our research culminated in a definitive guide to getting into real-estate investing. Among Mittal's funds is the StocksPlus Long Duration Fund, which consistently beats 99% of peers. — Bill Miller, the founder of Miller Value Partners, whose record-setting fund trounced the market for 15 consecutive years

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