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☆ Yields and energy are both coming to life, says Strategas' Chris Verrone
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailYields and energy are both coming to life, says Strategas' Chris VerroneChris Verrone, Strategas Research Partners head of technical and macro research, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the stocks, market trends, and more.

Persons: Strategas, Chris Verrone Chris Verrone Organizations: Strategas Research Partners

☆ Labor markets will hold up better than price inflation, says RenMac's Neil Dutta
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLabor markets will hold up better than price inflation, says RenMac's Neil DuttaNeil Dutta, head of U.S. economics at Renaissance Macro Research, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss his case for avoiding a recession, tailwinds of fiscal policy, and understanding the uptick in consumer delinquency rates as a credit normalization.

Persons: RenMac's Neil Dutta Neil Dutta Organizations: Email Labor, Macro

☆ 'I've seen this show before': A renowned market bear who called the dot-com bubble warns a recession is still barreling toward the US economy — and stocks are due to suffer as misguided optimism fuels
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-08 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

There's a fairly simple way to characterize Societe Generale strategist Albert Edwards' latest note to clients. Bears are boys who cried wolf (recession), and investors are the shepherd who have become sick of the ongoing warnings and have stopped heeding their calls. Societe GeneraleAll of this optimism is likely a mistake, Edwards said as he doubled down on his recession call. In an May note, Edwards said "recession is a done deal," citing The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which has been at recessionary levels for months now. The indicators takes into account variables like manufacturing activity, stock performance, consumer confidence, housing market activity, and bond market activity.

Persons: Albert Edwards, Edwards, downgrades, —, I'm, Michelle Cluver, Jason Draho, Neil Dutta, Ian Shepherdson Organizations: Societe Generale, Bears, Generale All, Generale, Investors, Bureau of Labor Statistics, X, Federal Reserve, UBS, Macro

☆ Investors have become 'disillusioned' from China's slowing growth, says NWI Management's Hariharan
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors have become 'disillusioned' from China's slowing growth, says NWI Management's HariharanTara Hariharan, NWI Management managing director of global macro research, said investors have become "disillusioned and disengaged" from China's slowing growth and its tighter regulatory policies.

Persons: NWI Management's, Tara Hariharan Organizations: Investors, NWI Management

☆ Wall Street Recession: Stock Market Crash Predictions Are Wrong
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( Neil Dutta | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

Wall Street analysts and economists have always had a tendency to fall in love with their forecasts. This stubbornness helps explain why Wall Street is having an exceptionally hard time letting go of the idea that a recession is just around the corner. Despite the year-plus in which analysts have been arguing that a recession is imminent, none of the arguments behind the predictions stand up to scrutiny. Bear growlsOver the past year, Wall Street pessimists' reasons for an approaching recession have shifted. The drag from the US housing market is fading.

Persons: doomsayers, it's, Neil Dutta Organizations: Street, Federal Reserve, Fed, Macro

☆ S&P 500 futures inch lower after Tuesday's tech-fueled rally: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. S&P 500 futures inched lower on Tuesday night. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.16% and 0.37%, respectively. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite jumped more than 1% each, buoyed by a resurgence in tech stocks after last week's selloff. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks Wednesday morning before a policy panel at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal. Powell will be joined by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda.

Persons: selloff, Jeff deGraaf, deGraaf, Jerome Powell, CNBC's Sara Eisen, Powell, Andrew Bailey, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, Jeff Cox Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow Jones, Investors, Macro, Federal, European Central Bank, Central Banking, Bank of England, Bank of Japan Locations: New York City ., Sintra , Portugal

☆ Renaissance Macro's Jeff deGraaf is bullish on the market but still bearish on banking
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRenaissance Macro's Jeff deGraaf is bullish on the market but still bearish on bankingJeff deGraaf, Renaissance Macro Research chairman, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss whether he believes the market is overbought or undervalued.

Persons: Jeff deGraaf Organizations: Macro

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Strategas Research's Chris Verrone
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Strategas Research's Chris VerroneChris Verrone, head of technical and macro research at Strategas Research Partners, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss if there's more to come in the rally in equities, what would happen if the Federal Reserve decided to stay higher for longer, and what's causing yields to move higher.

Persons: Strategas, Chris Verrone Chris Verrone Organizations: Strategas Research Partners, Federal Reserve

☆ Suspicious we're bumping up against the high-end of the range in equities, says Strategas' Verrone
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSuspicious we're bumping up against the high-end of the range in equities, says Strategas' VerroneChris Verrone, head of technical and macro research at Strategas Research Partners, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss if there's more to come in the rally in equities, what would happen if the Federal Reserve decided to stay higher for longer, and what's causing yields to move higher.

Persons: Chris Verrone Organizations: Strategas Research Partners, Federal Reserve

☆ Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan turn bullish on emerging market local bonds
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, June 12 (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley has become the latest Wall Street bank to turn bullish on local emerging market bonds, though its strategists said they remained wary of developing economies' currencies in the face of a dollar that is set to remain strong. "We upgrade our stance on EM local currency bonds to bullish, where we have held a neutral stance for much of the year," Morgan Stanley strategist James Lord said in a note to clients dated Friday. In a note published on Friday, JPMorgan moved its recommendation emerging market local bonds back to "overweight" from "market weight". "We prefer EM local to hard currency bonds for 2H23," Luis Oganes, head of global macro research at JPMorgan wrote in a note to clients. Emerging market central banks had been quick to raise rates in 2021, frontrunning major peers such as the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, James Lord, Lord, Luis Oganes, Oganes, frontrunning, Karin Strohecker, Conor Humphries Organizations: FX, JPMorgan, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Hungary, Uruguay, America

☆ Stock market scales steep wall of worry to approach one-year high
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-03 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

.SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 this year Yet with it all, the S & P 500 managed three closes in a week above the 4200 level deemed by most to be the top of its range, before jumping 1.5% Friday to finish at 4282 – just half a percent below its August peak closing value. S & P 500 poised to break out The trip to 4300 today comes under quite different, and less malign, conditions. Back then there was still nearly 300 basis points of Fed tightening ahead of us and earnings forecasts were dropping fast. Even at the August stock-index highs, the CBOE S & P 500 Volatility Index was scarcely able to drop below 20 – typically a floor during bear markets. In the near term, the S & P 500 looks a bit stretched, the index pushing well above its trend channel – a sign both of respectable strength and temporary overheating.

Persons: –, Jerome Powell, Russell, Jeff DeGraaf, it's, Let's Organizations: Federal, Treasury, Fed, Renaissance Macro Locations: U.S

☆ Risks the global economy still faces as threat of US debt default recedes
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

London CNN —With the threat of an unprecedented US debt crisis receding fast, the global economy looks to have dodged a huge shock. While an immediate crisis has likely been avoided, the litany of problems that had been temporarily overshadowed by the specter of a US default — among them, high inflation, rising interest rates and sluggish growth — haven’t gone away. Bloomberg/Getty ImagesInflation still too highAgainst that backdrop, inflation has eased in Europe’s second biggest economy, mimicking falls in Germany, Spain and Italy. But it could still arise from two longstanding threats: the Ukraine war and the climate crisis, both of which pose risks to global supply chains and food prices. The war helped drive international food prices to an all-time high last year.

Persons: specter, haven’t, ”, Carsten Brzeski, “, Charlotte de, Neil Shearing, Vladimir Putin, Michael Bociurkiw, Bociurkiw, Marcelo del Pozo Organizations: London CNN —, ING, Charlotte de Montpellier, Bloomberg, Getty, Data, United, Deutsche Bank, Capital Economics, Atlantic Council, Isla Mayor, ” Gro Intelligence Locations: United States, China, Germany, France, Beijing, Europe’s, Spain, Italy, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Moscow, Russian, Russia, Isla, Europe

☆ Traders turn optimistic on debt ceiling deal — and one strategist says it's a 'market opportunity'
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Speaker McCarthy discussed the latest development of the debt ceiling negotiations with the White House. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images) Win Mcnamee | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesAnalysts are broadly optimistic that the deal to raise the U.S. debt ceiling will pass a divided Congress. The compromise also sees the debt ceiling suspended until Jan. 1, 2025, pushing it past the 2024 presidential election. watch nowDavid Roche, president and global strategist for Independent Strategy saw this as a "Democratic win." He expects the deal will pass the House with Democratic support, although, like Pavlick, he said right-wing Republicans will likely vote against it.

☆ Negotiation of a debt ceiling deal is in itself a win for the Republicans, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNegotiation of a debt ceiling deal is in itself a win for the Republicans, research firm saysSteve Pavlick of Renaissance Macro Research discusses U.S. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy's final agreement on a deal to raise the nation's debt ceiling.

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns the S&P 500's 17% surge since October is a bear market rally — and that stocks are ripe for a decline of up to 60%
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-27 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Since October 2022, the S&P 500 is up 17% following a 25% decline as the Fed embarked on its rate-hiking cycle. The median S&P 500 price target for the end of the year is 4,000. Predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did. Predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up 1.1% over the past year.

☆ Asian stocks inch up on US debt ceiling hopes, Nikkei hits 33-year high
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index (.AXJO) rose 0.66%, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) continued its ascent, rising to its highest since August 1990, during the country's so-called bubble era. Futures indicated European stocks were set to open higher, with Eurostoxx 50 futures up 0.44%, German DAX futures up 0.41% and FTSE futures up 0.23%. China's blue-chip CSI300 Index (.CSI300) rose 0.20%, while the Shanghai Composite Index (.SSEC) was up 0.13%, having reversed from earlier losses. Hawkish rhetoric from Fed speakers continued with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard saying inflation was not cooling fast enough to allow the Fed to pause its interest-rate hike campaign. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar rose 0.029% and was wedged near a two-month high.

☆ Asian shares mixed as China growth worries crimp U.S. debt ceiling optimism
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) eased 0.20% but was set to eke out a gain of 0.19% for the week. Data in the week underscored that China's economy lost momentum at the beginning of the second quarter, stoking worries over the wobbly post-COVID-19 recovery. Investor attention has been firmly on the negotiations over U.S. debt ceiling and increasing hopes that a deal could be reached sent U.S. shares higher overnight . Hawkish rhetoric from Fed speakers continued with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard saying inflation was not cooling fast enough to allow the Fed to pause its interest-rate hike campaign. U.S. crude fell 0.14% to $71.76 per barrel and Brent was at $75.78, down 0.11% on the day.

☆ US debt ceiling: How to trade off it
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

BlackRock says (BLK.N) it's been buying Treasuries in anticipation of an economic slowdown and a protracted debt ceiling fight. 2/ RAINY DAY DEFAULT PROTECTIONCredit default swaps (CDS), which work like insurance against a debt default, are seeing strong demand. "If debt ceiling concerns grow we think markets will price in more Fed rate cut expectations, which means 5-year yields would fall," said Miyairi. 5/ ALL THAT GLITTERSDeutsche Bank strategist Robin Winkler says a good hedge may be buying gold against the dollar, as it has the tightest relationship with newsflow around the debt ceiling. In August 2011, as a debt ceiling crisis prompted a U.S. credit rating downgrade, gold rose 11% that month alone.

☆ Stocks would be a trade 'to rent not own', says Renaissance Macro's Neil Dutta
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStocks would be a trade 'to rent not own', says Renaissance Macro's Neil DuttaNeil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss the April jobs report and what it means for the Federal Reserve and economy.

☆ Expect rotation into defensive stocks to continue, says JPMorgan's Dubravko Lakos
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect rotation into defensive stocks to continue, says JPMorgan's Dubravko LakosDubravko Lakos, JPMorgan global head of equity macro research, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the risk of recession and his post-risk playbook.

☆ Morgan Stanley's wealth business just keeps on winning
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

It's good to be Morgan Stanley these days. Amid a difficult market for Wall Street banks — thanks in large part to non-existent deal flow — Morgan Stanley's massive wealth business has been paying off big time. But Morgan Stanley's success isn't coming in a vacuum. -Meanwhile, UBS, arguably Morgan Stanley's biggest competitor in the space, was begrudgingly saddled with Credit Suisse's carcass. With wealth advisors, a key part of hiring includes offering "bonuses" that are actually loans.

☆ 'Bears might have it completely wrong' on recession outlook, says Renaissance's Jeff DeGraaf
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Bears might have it completely wrong' on recession outlook, says Renaissance's Jeff DeGraafJeff DeGraaf, Renaissance Macro Research, and Ed Clissold, Ned Davis Research, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss the domestic and global markets, recession fears, and a potential bull market.

☆ Wall Street Investors Recession Bet May Cause Bond, Stock Market Crash
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Neil Dutta | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

And it's becoming increasingly clear that the bond market is reading the economic tea leaves all wrong. On the economic side, the bond market view would probably look something like the Fed's latest GDP projections. So if the bond market ends up being right about the economy, there would be a serious, ugly wake-up call for the stock market. I don't think the Wall Street aphorism about the bond market being "right" holds up this time. On the other hand, the bond market would take it squarely on the chin.

☆ 'The risk of recession is far from priced in': JPMorgan warns stocks are set up for a 'bearish outcome' as investors crowd into the top names in the market at rates last seen in the 2000 and 2008 bubb
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Investors are crowding into the biggest stocks in the S&P 500 at levels seen in prior bubbles. On a surface level, the S&P 500 looks like it's having a stellar start to 2023. The chart below shows crowding levels in low-volatility stocks, which investors seek in recessionary environments. If the US economy continues to avoid a recession, stocks could be well positioned to continue their gains this year. But many strategists believe a downturn — or at least a pullback in earnings — will drag the S&P 500 down to its October 2022 lows, or worse.

Shares of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have risen sharply since November, when top securities regulator Yi Huiman called for a new model to price them. Mainland-listed state telecom operators China Mobile and China Telecom have jumped more than 50% each this year and China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (600028.SS) has soared 44%, compared with a 5% gain in the benchmark index (.CSI300). More than 10 mutual fund companies have applied to launch nearly a score of SOE-dedicated funds since March, state media reported. E Fund Management Co this week launched a mutual fund, aiming to raise up to 8 billion yuan ($1.16 billion) to be ploughed into shares of strategically important SOEs. State companies' shares have so far outperformed the broader market, delivering what investors term a rare "SOE alpha".

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