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☆ Futures stable after Wall St rout on rate worries
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

ET (1900 GMT), is anticipated to detail the breadth of debate at the central bank over how much further interest rates may need to be raised to slow inflation. Money market participants expect rates to peak at 5.35% by July and stay around those levels till the end of 2023. ET, Dow e-minis were up 26 points, or 0.08%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 2.5 points, or 0.06%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 12 points, or 0.1%. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said rates will have to go north of 5% to tame inflation. Reporting by Johann M Cherian and Medha Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun KoyyurOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Jim Cramer's top 10 things to watch in the stock market Wednesday: Fedspeak, stocks bounce, Palo Alto beats
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. ET: Q&A with Jim and Jeff Marks on general investing, market thoughts, education11:30-12:15 p.m. ET: Jim and Jeff discuss the portfolio (Part 2)2:15-2:45 p.m.

☆ Wall St inches higher as investors focus on Fed minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Johann M Cherian | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies Fed minutes due at 2:00 p.m. U.S. stocks shed more than 2% on Tuesday after a rebound in business activity in February stoked fears of interest rates staying higher for longer. "We expect all indicators to point to the Fed remaining hawkish in its inflation fight." However, stocks have had a volatile run in February as traders priced in higher interest rates for longer, considering inflation remains elevated in the face of a sturdy economy. Money market participants expect rates to peak at 5.35% by July and stay around those levels till the end of 2023.

☆ St. Louis Fed Pres. Bullard: U.S economy is stronger than we thought
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSt. Louis Fed Pres. Bullard: U.S economy is stronger than we thoughtSt. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss whether he is happy with recent moves in treasury yields, where he is at regarding a terminal federal funds rate, and more.

☆ The economy is stronger than previously expected and markets are repricing to adjust to blowout data, Fed President Bullard says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard says the US economy is proving more resilient than the central bank thought. Bullard says strong labor market data has caused investors to prepare for further tightening. Bullard says markets are reacting to this "blowout" data, which indicates that US economic growth has not slowed enough to pull back on rate hikes. "You have a very strong labor market combined with more momentum coming out of the second half of 2022 than we previously thought," Bullard told CNBC's 'Squawk Box' on Wednesday. "Our risk now is inflation doesn't come down and reaccelerates, and then what do you do?"

While the Fed settled for a quarter-percentage-point rise, it also said "ongoing increases" would push the policy rate as high as needed. Recent data also showed inflation continuing to slow, though by less than expected. Today's 4.5%-4.75% policy rate is its highest since the eve of the housing crisis in 2007. "I don't see that indicating to me that we're slowing the economy," Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said of recent data, including strong retail sales and job growth. Richmond Fed's Barkin, by contrast, said he took little "signal" from recent data, anticipating inflation would continue falling.

☆ US stocks end mixed as Fed officials sound off on inflation fight and path of future rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks closed mixed as top Fed officials weighed in on what it will take to rein in inflation. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said he supports raising rates in 25 basis-point increments. Elsewhere, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said inflation remains "much too high" and that the central bank should continue raising rates. On Thursday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said delivering another rate increase will "lock in" easing inflation, while Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she had seen a "compelling economic case" for delivering another half-point hike in the fed funds rate at the previous central bank meeting. For oil, "one major upside risk to prices remains China and its recovery from the transition to living with COVID.

☆ Stocks slide as investors worry about more rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks tumbled Thursday morning after the US government’s Producer Price Index report showed that prices at the wholesale level rose faster than expected in January. The unwelcome inflation news comes just two days after the Consumer Price Index figures showed that retail prices continue to come in above forecasts. Investors also were unnerved by comments from Cleveland Federal Reserve president Loretta Mester about inflation and the economy. St. Louis Fed president James Bullard, another regional bank president who does not have a vote on the FOMC this year, is giving a speech this afternoon. Streaming media device maker Roku (ROKU) also soared following strong earnings.

☆ US stocks drop on stubbornly high inflation and Fed officials' comments on more rate hike to come
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks fell Thursday as an increase in wholesale prices heightened inflation worries. Fed officials Loretta Mester and James Bullard said further rate hikes are warranted. "[Coupled] with a hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI), markets have priced in a Federal Reserve probability of more rate hikes than initially anticipated," Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, said in a note. "With the futures market now pricing in a strong probability of two more 25-basis-point rate hikes this year, probability is edging higher for a third hike." Separately, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard reportedly said more rate increases will "lock in" slowing inflation, even alongside an economic expansion.

☆ Wall St slides as inflation, jobless claims data fuel rate-hike angst
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Johann M Cherian | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Another set showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, offering more evidence of the economy's resilience. "You're also seeing the job market still very strong as well, with claims coming in less than expected." The Fed is seen pushing the benchmark rate above the 5% mark by May and keeping it above those levels till the year-end. Traders will also scrutinize remarks from other Fed officials, including St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, to assess the central bank's tone on monetary policy. The S&P index recorded two new 52-week highs and one new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 28 new highs and 22 new lows.

☆ Wall St eyes lower open as producer prices rebound
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Johann M Cherian | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A Labor Department report showed producer prices climbed 0.7% in January after a 0.2% fall in the previous month. "You're also seeing the job market still very strong as well, with claims coming in less than expected," Zaccarelli added. ET, Dow e-minis were down 274 points, or 0.8%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 47.5 points, or 1.14%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 185.75 points, or 1.46%. Traders will also scrutinize remarks from other Fed officials, including St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, to assess the central bank's tone on monetary policy. Reporting by Johann M Cherian and Sruthi Shankar in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'SilvaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: Growth trumps rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

While there were some questions about seasonal adjustments in the data, economists were impressed that sales growth was pretty broad based and have scrambled to re-crunch first quarter U.S. output forecasts as a result. There may be a more mixed picture from Thursday's data slate on producer prices, housing starts and weekly jobless claims. Even though rates futures and Treasury yields ticked back a bit today, pricing now has Fed policy rates moving as high as 5.25% and staying above 5% all year. And while full-year earnings growth estimates for S&P500 companies have sunk to zero, consensus forecasts are now pencilling in a rebound of almost 12% next year. Uncertainty about the pace of growth and annual tax receipts in April makes it difficult for government officials to predict the exact "X-date", it said.

☆ A mysterious trader known as '50 Cent' may have bet millions that volatility in the stock market will explode
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A trader nicknamed "50 Cent" may be placing big bets that the VIX - known as Wall Street's fear index - will surge. That someone may be a trader nicknamed "50 Cent" who has in past positioned themselves to make money off of market volatility by way of consistently buying Cboe Volatility Index options that usually cost about 50 cents. The VIX - known as Wall Street's fear index - gauges the expected volatility of the US stock market. "'50 Cent' is back. Whoever "50 Cent" may be, they're anticipating a surge in the VIX as it currently sits around a 13-month low.

☆ Here's everything the Fed is expected to do Wednesday
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell holds a news conference following the announcement that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by half a percentage point, at the Federal Reserve Building in Washington, U.S., December 14, 2022. Evelyn Hockstein | ReutersThis week's Federal Reserve meeting will be remembered more for what policymakers say than what they do. Fed projections released in December indicate no cuts this year and continued rate hikes. That will take the fed funds rate to a target range of 4.5%-4.75%, the highest since October 2007. Though some Fed officials, such as St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, have suggested the rate hike could be half a point, there's virtually no chance of that happening.

☆ Futures fall as weak data fuel recession worries, Fed comments on tap
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Futures down: Dow 0.52%, S&P 0.54%, Nasdaq 0.61%Jan 19 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures fell on Thursday after weak economic data fueled recession worries, while investors await comments from more Federal Reserve officials for clues on the central bank's path of monetary tightening. "For once bad news really was bad news because of the implications it might have for interest rates. Weak retail sales suggested consumers' resilience may have been pushed beyond breaking point," said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell. Analysts now expect year-over-year earnings from S&P 500 companies to decline 2.6% for the quarter, according to Refinitiv data, compared with a 1.6% decline in the beginning of the year. ET, Dow e-minis were down 173 points, or 0.52%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 21.25 points, or 0.54%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 69.5 points, or 0.61%.

☆ Recessions risks knock stocks, speculators drawn back to yen
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Nikkei dip and the bounce for the yen suggest such speculation is here to stay, at least for now. April was another possibility, she added, since by then the BOJ would have a new governor. "My guess would be that more speculators would look to build positions going into these meetings." Microsoft's announcement of 10,000 layoffs and hawkish comments from Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard added to the gloom, with both Fed officials expecting U.S. interest rates above 5% this year. The Australian dollar was last down 0.5% at $0.6907, losing ground after data showed an unexpected fall in Australian employment last month.

Before the market opened, U.S. economic data showed retail sales and producer prices declined more than expected in December, while production at U.S. factories fell more than expected and November output was weaker than thought. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 613.89 points, or 1.81%, to 33,296.96 and the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 62.11 points, or 1.56%, to 3,928.86. Today's economic data served as a trigger to initiate a profit taking spell and the groups with most profits to take have been the ones that have done best last year," said Stovall. Earlier in the day, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stressed on the need to raise rates beyond 5% to bring inflation to heel. The S&P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 78 new highs and 20 new lows.

☆ U.S. dollar advances vs major currencies as risk appetite fades
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The earlier sell-off in the dollar came after the Bank of Japan maintained ultra-low interest rates. In afternoon trading, the U.S. currency rose against the commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian, New Zealand, and Canadian dollars, which sensitive to risk appetite. The Australian dollar fell 0.7% to US$0.6936, after hitting its highest since August last year. In Japan, the BOJ kept intact its yield curve control (YCC) targets, set at -0.1% for short-term interest rates and around 0% for the 10-year yield, by a unanimous vote. The dollar rose as much as 2.7% to 131.58 yen before gains were pared.

Brent <LCOc1> futures fell 94 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $84.98 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 70 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at 79.48. Markets at first reacted positively to U.S. data, which showed retail sales and manufacturing production declined more than forecast in December, on hopes the Fed would now ease up on interest rate hikes. Supporting oil prices early in the session, China reported economic data that beat forecasts after the country started rolling back its zero-COVID policy in early December. Rystad said the losses were at about 500,000 barrels per day and that India and China remain key buyers of Russian crude.

Markets reacted positively to data, which showed retail sales and producer prices declined more than expected in December. However, the gains were short-lived as St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stressed on the need to raise rates beyond 5% to bring inflation to heel. U.S. stock markets have started 2023 on a strong footing on hopes that a moderation in inflationary pressures could give the Fed cover to dial down the size of its interest rate hikes. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 1.23-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 1.53-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded nine new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 63 new highs and 12 new lows.

☆ Fed policymakers call for further rate hikes to beat inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Howard Schneider | Lindsay Dunsmuir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

(Reuters) -Federal Reserve policymakers on Wednesday signaled they will push on with more interest rate hikes, with several supporting a top policy rate of at least 5% even as inflation shows signs of having peaked and economic activity is slowing. REUTERS/Jason Reed“I just think we need to keep going, and we’ll discuss at the meeting how much to do,” Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said in an interview with the Associated Press. The remarks appeared to reflect a widely shared view among her fellow policymakers, most of whom as of December had penciled in a 5.00%-5.25% policy rate in coming months. Mester said that for her part she expects the Fed’s policy rate to need to go “a bit higher” than that, and stay there for some time to further slow inflation. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan also supports a slower rate hike pace ahead because of the uncertain outlook and the need to be flexible.

☆ Fed's Bullard urges colleagues not to "stall" on remaining rate increases
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationWASHINGTON, Jan 18 (Reuters) - St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said Wednesday that U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers should get the policy rate of interest above 5% "as quickly as we can" before pausing rate increases needed to battle an ongoing outbreak of inflation. Asked during a Wall Street Journal event if he was open to another half point rate increase at the Fed's upcoming meeting, Bullard responded "why not go to where we're supposed to go?...Why stall?" Bullard said he felt the policy of "frontloading" rate increases with larger three-quarter-point and half-point increases had worked well, and that he saw no reason to stop until the policy rate was nearer the level seen as a likely stopping point. In projections issued in December the median official saw that "terminal" rate at around 5.1%. With the risks of inflation remaining higher than expected and the economy at this point performing better than anticipated, "let's move the policy rate to the right level...then we'll see how 2023 unfolds."

"I just think we need to keep going, and we'll discuss at the meeting how much to do." The Fed's benchmark overnight lending rate currently sits in a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Investors expect the Fed to lift that rate by a quarter of a percentage point at the end of its Jan. 31 -Feb. 1 meeting. Several Fed officials have expressed support for slowing to quarter-percentage-point rate increases so as not to slow the labor market more than necessary. The answer may in part be found in the latest "Beige Book" report published by the Fed on Wednesday.

☆ The global rally in stocks that's kicked off 2023 may prove to be 'head fake' as it's too soon to assume inflation is receding, says UBS
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The stock-market rally at the start of 2023 faces risks from still-elevated inflation, UBS Global Wealth Management said. Central bankers are monitoring core prices, which rose in the euro area and the US in December. "The possibility that core inflation is sticker than expected remains a risk for markets." In the US, core prices increased by 0.3% as monthly shelter costs drove higher by 0.8%. "While the strong start to the year is welcome and we believe more risk-tolerant investors can start to anticipate an inflection point in 2023, we advise against complacency," Haefele wrote.

A reading from the Commerce Department showed retail sales fell 1.1% in December against expectations of a 0.8% drop, while a separate report showed producer prices declined more than expected in December. Traders' bets of a 25-basis point rate hike rose after the data, while U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell to a four-month low. Analysts now expect year-over-year earnings from S&P 500 companies to decline 2.6% for the quarter, according to Refinitiv data, compared with a 1.6% decline in the beginning of 2023. Among major S&P 500 sectors, consumer discretionary stocks (.SPLRCD) were up 1%, leading gains. U.S. stock markets have started 2023 on a strong footing on hopes that a moderation in inflationary pressures could give the Fed cover to dial down the size of its interest rate hikes.

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