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How Powell's testimony could impact the markets
  + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Melissa Lee | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHow Powell's testimony could impact the marketsRBC's Lori Calvasina looks at how Powell's congressional testimony could impact the markets. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Tim Seymour, Karen Finerman, Bonawyn Eison and Steve Grasso.
RBC Capital Markets' Lori Calvasina maintained a base-case scenario for the S&P 500 ending the year at 4,100. But she told Bloomberg TV that the broad market index could reach 4,500, representing upside of more than 12%. But inflation would have to cool enough for the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Other analysts have warned investors to prepare for a steep stock market downturn on expectations the Federal Reserve is set to lift rates even higher than expected, not ease them. Fundstrat's Tom Lee published a note on Wednesday, saying that most of the Fed's previous tightening cycles coincided with stock market advances.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with RBC's Lori Calvasina, Veritas’ Greg Branch and Crossmark’s Victoria FernandezRBC's Lori Calvasina, Veritas’ Greg Branch and Crossmark’s Victoria Fernandez join 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss their market view and how investors should position themselves.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe debt ceiling could be a problem this summer, says RBC Capital's Lori CalvasinaLori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss her neutral view on the market and how investors should position themselves heading into the summer.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe bears have overstayed their welcome, says RBC's Lori CalvasinaLori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss market volatility today after Powell's remarks in Washington.
REUTERS/Charles PlatiauCHICAGO/DETROIT, Jan 31 (Reuters) - The companies that produce goods at the heart of the U.S. consumer economy - SUVs, washing machines, heavy equipment and hamburgers - kept rolling along at the end of 2022. Bellwethers including McDonald's (MCD.N), General Motors, Exxon Mobil (XOM.N), appliance maker Whirlpool (WHR.N) and delivery giant United Parcel Service (UPS.N), posted results that exceeded estimates. That's a good sign for the broader economy, according to Lori Calvasina, equity analyst at RBC Capital Markets. The economy's performance may depend on whether price pressures that have afflicted consumer and business spending start to wane. "As we go into 2023, there is going to continue to be inflation," said Christopher Kempczinski, McDonald's CEO, on the company's earnings call Tuesday.
The early 2023 corporate earnings outlooks that companies are issuing alongside actual fourth-quarter results are deteriorating, Bank of America equity and quantitative strategist Savita Subramanian wrote in a report Sunday. As a result, S & P 500 earnings estimates for 2023 have already fallen 1% — but are 10% down from where they were at the peak in June 2022. "Early signs are troubling," with an in-house "S & P guidance ratio" falling into the 10th percentile, signaling that "corporate misery [is] rising." What's worse, analysts' estimates had already fallen 7% coming into the reporting period, Subramanian said. She noted the same disconcerting early earnings trend, headlining a report out on Monday with, "EPS Backdrop Continues To Soften."
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email2023 earnings downgrades are at fastest pace since 2010: RBC’s Lori CalvasinaLori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets, joins CNBC"s "Fast Money" to discuss the state of markets and the recent rally.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full discussion with RBC's Lori Calvasina and Barclays' Venu KrishnaLori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets, and Venu Krishna, Barclays Investment Bank, join CNBC's 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss where they see the markets headed this year.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailS&P 500 will see flat 2023, forecasts RBC Capital Market's Lori CalvasinaRBC Capital Markets' Lori Calvasina on where markets are headed into the new year. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Chris Verrone, Karen Finerman, Steve Grasso and Julie Biel.
The outlook for next year is a bit better for stocks, but the first half sounds like it could be downright ugly. The strategist expects lows to be retested due to what could be a significant decline in earnings as interest rates rise. Jeff Kleintop, Charles Schwab's chief global investment strategist, expects a shallow recession may already have begun. He predicts the first half will be worse for stocks than the back half of the year, with a choppiness similar to the past six months. Calvasina expects small caps to be an area of outperformance, and she still sees value in energy and financials.
Markets could be volatile and in search of a catalyst in the week ahead, as investors consider year-end trades in the lull before the Federal Reserve's December 13-14 policy meeting. Stocks were higher in the past week, with the year's worst performing sectors, communications services and consumer discretionary companies, leading the gains. On the geopolitical front, Arone said investors will watch the Dec. 6 runoff election in Georgia's senate race . Week ahead calendar Monday Earnings: Sumo Logic , Gitlab 9:45 a.m. Services PMI 10:00 a.m. ISM services 10:00 a.m. Initial jobless claims 10:00 a.m. Quarterly services survey Friday 8:30 a.m. PPI 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment 10:00 a.m. Wholesale trade
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors should start thinking about recovery trades, says RBC Capital's Lori CalvasinaLori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss investment plays in the current market environment.
Election nights and morning-afters are becoming wild times in the stock market as traders track the results race by race or county by county and assess the implications. That could continue Wednesday as it was too early to determine whether Democrats or Republicans will end up with control of the House of Representatives or the Senate. Also positive for stocks is the potential for divided government, with Democrats in control of the White House and Republicans holding at least one house of Congress. Republicans could still control Congress, but on Tuesday that wave was well short of what they, and many pundits, had expected. Dozens of races haven't been called, and it's possible that the Georgia Senate race will go to a runoff election.
New York CNN Business —US stocks were mostly unchanged in after-hours trading as results from Tuesday’s midterm elections rolled in. If Republicans take at least one chamber of Congress, that will likely result in more gridlock, which the market usually loves. Investors are more than happy when politicians bicker but don’t actually enact any new laws that may hurt corporate profits. S&P 500 futures were down 0.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.01%. Early results on election night can be very different from the final outcome once all the votes are tallied.
Even if the election results match expectations, stocks may still rally as some unknowns are removed. Broad sector ETFs from firms like iShares, State Street and Vanguard are one way to play these sectors, offering cheap broad exposure. For example, the Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) and Vanguard Communications Services ETF (VOX) both have an expense ratio of 0.10%. Under-the-radar elections Federal elections are not the only contests on Tuesday that could move stocks. The biggest marijuana ETFs — AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) and ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ) — are each down more than 50% for the year.
The stocks also have to have a potential upside of at least 20%, based on the average analyst price target, according to FactSet. Shares are up more than 36% year to date and have another 30% upside to the average analyst price target, according to FactSet. Google-parent Alphabet is down about 38% year to date but has nearly 45% upside to the average analyst price target. Match has lost more than 65% so far this year but has 50% upside to the average analyst price target, according to FactSet. The stock is down about 28% year to date, but has 27% upside to the average analyst price target.
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailS&P to see a big rally post-midterm if Republicans take Congress, says RBC's CalvasinaRBC's Lori Calvasina offers her market midterm survival guide. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Bonawyn Eison, Karen Finerman, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami.
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 7, 2022. Stock futures were flat Monday evening following a winning day for markets as investors looked ahead to U.S. midterm elections on Tuesday. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.03% and 0.10%, respectively. Shares of Lyft fell 13% while Take-Two Interactive and Tripadvisor slumped more than 15% each after reporting disappointing quarterly results. On Tuesday, Lordstown Motors , Lucid Group, Walt Disney and AMC Entertainment all report their latest quarterly results.
If the midterm elections go as Wall Street expects, stocks should rally into year-end, according to RBC. The average S & P 500 returns are higher in the years when a Democrat is president and the GOP controls Congress, her analysis showed. This year is most similar to 2002 — so far the S & P has had a 76% correlation with 2002, the strongest in any midterm election year in recent decades. Back then, the S & P rallied back 20% from its October lows, she said. Additionally, biotech in the health-care space and specialty/consumer finance and regional banks within financials should outperform, according to RBC.
It is the value player's dream: A revaluation of growth stocks. As a result, money in October has been moving into financials, materials, industrials, energy and even small caps. Investors have noticed this deceleration in earnings for growth sectors and have been buying classic "value" sectors like energy, industrials and health care this month. Third-quarter arnings growth for tech names is down a modest 1.2% and is only projected down 3.3% for the fourth quarter. Krinsky wasn't alone in his caution about earnings estimates.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with RBC Capital Markets' Lori CalvasinaRBC Capital Markets head of US equity strategy Lori Calvasina joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the reasons behind her Meta target cuts, the influence of midterm elections on markets and investing tips for the tech landscape.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUntil we've de-risked 2023 expectations, expect further volatility, says RBC Capital Markets' CalvasinaRBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy Lori Calvasina joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the reasons behind her Meta target cut, the influence of midterm elections on markets and investing tips for the tech landscape.
Some leading strategists and experts are very positive on smaller companies right now. Heading into a recession, smaller companies usually look expensive compared to their bigger peers. Steven DeSanctis, a SMID-cap strategist for Jefferies, is another expert who is positive on smaller companies right now. But he notes that even though small caps have delivered better returns than large caps since June 30, investors are still pulling money out of small cap-themed ETFs. In fact, Fisher wrote that when small caps do this poorly, it can lead to powerful recoveries.
Analysts at Barclays raised their forecasts on Fed rate hikes in December and February to 75 and 50 basis points, respectively. Any relief rally that takes hold in the stock market could send the S&P 500 to its first big resistance test around 3,914, Stockton added. High inflation reports could become the norm after more than a decade of sub-2% inflation readings, according to Bank of America. That's because underinvestment in energy production, sticky wage inflation, and aging demographics are set to drive structural inflation for years to come. There's reason to believe the stock market is close to its low point, according to RBC.
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