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☆ Morning Bid: Powell patter, UK shock, FedEx warning
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanThe Fed chair has a tricky message to communicate. Powell's colleagues on Tuesday stressed again they would stay the course until inflation is back to its 2% target. UK inflation defied expectations of a slowdown and held at 8.7% in May, while 'core' inflation jumped above 7% for the first time since 1992. In corporate news, FedEx FDX.N shares dropped almost 3% overnight after a profit warning. Events to watch for later on Wednesday:* Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies to House Financial Affairs Committee.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell's, rationalises, Powell's, Treasuries, BoE, Sterling recoiled, Rivian, Jerome Powell, Adrian Kugler, Philip Jefferson's, Lisa Cook, Austan Goolsbee, Loretta Mester, Christina Fincher Organizations: Federal Reserve, National Association of Home Builders, Bank of, FedEx FDX.N, Rivals Rivian, European, Financial, Fed Board, Chicago Fed, Cleveland Fed, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, Britain, Bank of England, China

Inflation has "started to abate" but the Fed will remain focused on returning it to the 2% target, Fed governor and vice chair nominee Philip Jefferson said in testimony prepared for his confirmation hearing on Wednesday before the Senate Banking Committee. "The economy faces multiple challenges, including inflation, banking-sector stress, and geopolitical instability. "Inflation has started to abate, and I remain focused on returning it to our 2% target." As a group, Fed policymakers last week signaled two more interest-rate hikes are likely by the end of the year. The Senate Banking committee on Tuesday also released prepared remarks from Fed Board nominee Adriana Kugler, who said returning inflation to the central bank's 2% target is key to setting a strong foundation for the U.S. economy.

Persons: Philip Jefferson, Jefferson, Lisa Cook, ” Cook, Cook, Adriana Kugler, " Kugler, Kugler, Bob Menendez, Menendez, Howard Schneider, Michael S, Dan Burns, Ann Saphir, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Reserve, Committee, Federal, World Bank, Fed, of Governors, Senate, Derby, Thomson Locations: Washington, U.S, New York, Berkeley , California

☆ Wall Street prepares for more gains this month after past week's breakout
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

For now, it's not a brighter economic picture or an exuberant earnings outlook pushing stocks higher. Another reason that some investors have come back to stocks is simply because the S & P 500 ended the week more than 23% above last October's low. "The next level of resistance is above 4,500 on the S & P. Historically, the market gains 14.5% on average between the 20% threshold level and the next decline of 5% or more. "Inflation peaked in June of last year and has been rapidly declining over the past 12 months. Trading the week after is often treacherous, Hirsch said, with the Dow Jones Industrials falling in 27 of the past 33 years and the S & P 500 down in 23 of 33 years.

Persons: it's, Sam Stovall, Clinton, Wells Fargo, Chris Harvey, Harvey, Jay Hatfield, Price, CarMax, Stovall, Jeffrey Hirsch, Hirsch, Dow Jones Industrials, York Fed's John Williams, Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, Lisa Cook, Adriana Kugler, Avid Bioservices, Patterson Cos, Christopher Waller, Michael Bloom, Fred Imbert, Alex Harring Organizations: Fed, CFRA, Microsoft, Infrastructure Capital Management, Consumer, PPI, FedEx, Darden, Dow, Housing, Financial, Enerpac, Avid, Banking, Accenture, Commercial Metals, P, PMI Locations: New York, York, Dublin

☆ Bad news for the Fed: American workers are becoming less productive
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But what does the Fed mean when it talks about labor markets and their impact on inflation? What’s happening: At its most basic level, labor productivity is a measure of the value of the goods and services produced by a company compared with the amount of labor used to produce that output. Labor productivity decreased 2.1% in the first quarter of 2023, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported earlier this month. The silver lining: The good news is technological innovations typically drive upturns in productivity and AI could be such an innovation. Absolutely not,” Yellen said, echoing the joint statement leaders from the Group of Seven made at last month’s summit in Japan.

Persons: Lisa Shalett, ”, Lisa Cook, Joseph Brusuelas, Sundar Pichai, aren’t, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Richard Blumenthal, “, Doug McMillon, Roger McNamee, Steven Spielberg, Vito Corleone, Janet Yellen, ” Yellen, Elisabeth Buchwald, Yellen, Biden Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN — Federal Reserve, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Fed, Labor, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, McKinsey Global Institute, Federal, RSM US, of America, Google, Yale School, Management’s, Leadership Institute, Walmart, Technology, Financial, International Monetary Fund, Inter, American Development Bank group’s, African Development Fund, IMF Locations: New York, United States, Michigan, Connecticut, China, Japan

"And as Washington leaks out increments with rolling disclosure about how the discussions are proceeding ... that probably is bolstering confidence in investors." ET, Dow e-minis were up 51 points, or 0.15%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 7.5 points, or 0.18%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 20.75 points, or 0.15%. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Monday he does not expect any interest-rate cuts this year as he does not see inflation going down as fast as market participants believe. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Fed Board Governor Lisa Cook are among other Fed officials set to speak later in the day. Reporting by Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Nivedita BhattacharjeeOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fed Governor Philip Jefferson named as new vice chair to succeed Lael Brainard
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Federal Reserve Governor Philip Jefferson will be nominated by President Joe Biden to be vice chairman of the central bank's board, the White House announced Friday. As vice chair, he takes a position last occupied by Lael Brainard, who is now Biden's director of the National Economic Council. Before coming to the Fed, Jefferson was a professor of economics as well as vice president for academic affairs and dean of faculty at Davidson College. The nomination was not unexpected; multiple media outlets had reported that Jefferson was Biden's likely choice as vice chair. If confirmed, Jefferson would be the second Black person to hold the vice chair position.

If confirmed, Kugler, a Colombian-American, would be the first Latino to serve on the Fed board, marking the latest effort by Biden to improve the central bank’s diversity. Kugler, who is currently on leave from Georgetown University, previously worked in the Obama administration as the Labor Department’s chief economist. Getty Images/AlamyJefferson, who joined the Fed as a governor a year ago, has been tapped by Biden to the influential role of vice chair, serving as the No. He joined the Fed board in May 2022, after winning broad bipartisan support during his congressional confirmation process. He taught economics at Swarthmore College, Columbia University and the University of Virginia, and served as a high-ranking administrator at Davidson College.

☆ Morning Bid: Apple comforts as payrolls loom
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Apple upped its dividend and authorized another $90 billion share repurchase program, same as a year ago. Apple's stock has outperformed most of Wall Street in 2023, up 28% year-to-date. After a torrid 2022, that narrow index is up 35% so far this year - far outstripping the Nasdaq 100's (.NDX) 18% gain and accounting for the bulk of the more modest 6% rise in the S&P500 <.S&P500>. And after three hefty daily retreats in a row for the S&P500 this week, futures are up 0.4% ahead of Friday's open. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Gold prices subdued as caution sets in ahead of cenbank meetings
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold headed for its second decline in three sessions as strength in the dollar and equities diminished demand for the metal as an alternative asset. Gold is highly sensitive to rising interest rates, which raise the opportunity cost of holding non-interest bearing bullion. "Some firming in U.S. Treasury yields following last Friday's flash PMI data are keeping the downward pressure on gold prices," said Yeap Jun Rong, a market analyst at IG. Gold prices dropped by more than 1% on Friday after the release of surveys that showed the U.S. and euro zone business activity gathered pace in April. Moreover, the European Central Bank is expected to hike rates by a quarter percentage point on May 4, with some likelihood for a half-point hike.

☆ Fed's Cook sees a less certain outlook for future of monetary policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Officials have signaled that they expect to raise rates by a quarter percentage point to between 5% and 5.25%, matching market expectations. But they are also unclear how much credit conditions might tighten and restrain growth as a result of the banking sector turbulence. In her remarks, Cook said that inflation has been moving down but underlying price pressures still remain strong and embedded in the economy. Cook also said the labor market remains strong but there are signs that’s also starting to slow down. “Wage growth has moderated somewhat from the rates reached about a year ago” and “indicators of hiring have slowed,” Cook said.

"Investors are okay with earnings so far because the lack of bad news is good news," said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of 50 Park Investments. "The market is waiting to see if we can get some bullish earnings over the next few weeks from some of the big cap tech stocks." A slate of Fed speakers this week voiced support for another 25-basis-point rate hike by the U.S. central bank when it meets next week. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.42-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 1.30-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded 18 new 52-week highs and three new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 27 new highs and 78 new lows.

☆ Morning Bid: April boomlet mocks recession script
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanThe signal is still lost in an awful lot of noise. With next week's Big Tech earnings reports hoving into view, the overall U.S. corporate healthcheck remains pretty mixed. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the overall global stock market direction remains equivocal. Although Asia bourses had initially followed Wall St's Thursday swoon, European indexes and S&P500 futures were little changed on Friday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Futures edge higher as tech and growth stocks gain; focus on jobs data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Oil prices extended gains on Tuesday, with investor attention shifting to demand trends and the impact of higher prices on the global economy. Energy firms Chevron Corp (CVX.N), Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) and Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY.N) were set to extend gains, rising between 0.5% and 0.9% premarket. Among stocks, Virgin Orbit Holdings Inc (VORB.O) tanked 25% after the satellite launch company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on failing to secure long-term funding. Etsy Inc (ETSY.O) gained 3.8% after Piper Sandler upgraded the consumer e-commerce platform's stock to "overweight". Reporting by Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: Markets brush off OPEC as factories stall
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanRelatively calm world markets have brushed off OPEC's latest twist and focussed more squarely on stalled global manufacturing and edgy U.S.-China relations. Crude oil prices held much of Monday's pop higher on the surprise weekend production cut by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. But Brent crude remains below levels seen just before the Silicon Valley Bank bust last month and is still tracking year-on-year declines of 20%. Strikingly, both short and long-term inflation expectations embedded in the Treasury markets , have barely budged since the OPEC news. McCarthy, the third-most-senior U.S. leader after the president and vice president, is due to host a meeting in California on Wednesday with Tsai.

☆ Gold dips as stronger dollar dampens appeal
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

April 3 (Reuters) - Gold prices slipped on Monday as a sturdy dollar made the greenback-denominated metal less affordable for buyers holding other currencies. FUNDAMENTALS* Spot gold was down 0.3% at $1,962.36 per ounce, as of 0049 GMT. * The opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion rises when interest rates are increased to bring down inflation. * Markets see a 48.4% chance of the Fed hiking rates by a quarter point in May, according to the CME FedWatch tool. DATA/EVENTS (GMT)0145 China Caixin Mfg PMI Final0750 France S&P Global Mfg PMI0755 Germany S&P Global/BME Mfg PMI0800 EU S&P Global Mfg Final PMI0830 UK S&P GLBL/CIPS Mfg Final PMI1345 US S&P Global Mfg PMI Final1400 US ISM Manufacturing PMIReporting by Kavya Guduru in Bengaluru; editing by Uttaresh VenkateshwaranOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: Crude cut complicates Q2
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Brent crude surged on Monday in response, settling about 5% higher than Friday's close. The mild reaction in the rates and bond markets to the OPEC move reflects some of that. Asia and Europe's main stock indices were steady to higher, with S&P500 futures only marginally in the red ahead of Monday's open. The VIX (.VIX) volatility index was a touch higher, though still below 20, and the dollar (.DXY) was up smartly. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index teetered back on the 50 dividing line between expansion and contraction again in March.

☆ S&P, Nasdaq futures fall on inflation worries after OPEC+ output cut
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Futures mixed: Dow up 0.36%, S&P down 0.10%, Nasdaq down 0.64%April 3 (Reuters) - Futures tracking the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell on Monday as soaring oil prices renewed worries of persistent inflationary pressures, while energy stocks surged at the start of the week. Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ oil producers announced further oil output cuts of around 1.16 million barrels per day, threatening an immediate rise in prices. Oil prices jumped 5.4% on Monday, propelling over 3% gains in energy firms such as Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) and Chevron Corp (CVX.N) in premarket trade. ET, Dow e-minis were up 119 points, or 0.36%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 4 points, or 0.10%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 84.5 points, or 0.64%. Remarks by Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook on economic outlook and monetary policy are also expected later on Monday.

☆ Morning Bid: Oil spike a black mark for inflation, consumer demand
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Oil prices have stolen the show in Asia on Monday, and not in a good way if you care about global inflation and consumer spending power. Yet, higher petrol prices are also a tax on consumers and have a close correlation to consumer sentiment, especially in the United States. It's also unlikely to be taken well by the White House given the political pain of higher gas prices. Concerns about consumer demand were not helped by the Caixin/S&P survey of Chinese manufacturing in March that badly missed forecasts at 50.0, largely due to a weakness in export orders. Auto sales for March will offer an early read on consumer demand- Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook speaks on the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policyEditing by Jamie FreedOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: A holiday kickoff to the second quarter, and a US jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-02 | by ( Alden Bentley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

April 3 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Alden Bentley. Asia's data calendar across the rest of the week otherwise looks fairly tame and the main economic event for global markets will be U.S. payrolls data on Friday. So given the number of markets that are closed on, or before, Friday, the week could bring surprises of a pleasant, or not pleasant, variety. But any surprise headlines, be they OPEC or bank related, will have to be digested by thinned markets, which can bring excessive market swings. This week will bring CPI releases from Indonesia on Monday, South Korea on Tuesday and Thailand and the Philippines on Wednesday.

☆ Fed's Cook: watching credit conditions in calibrating interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

March 31 (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook on Friday said she is watching credit conditions closely and will factor in potential economic headwinds from recent banking sector turmoil as she weighs the right level of interest rates to deal with high and persistent inflation. "On the one hand, if tighter financing conditions restrain the economy, the appropriate path of the federal funds rate may be lower than it would be in their absence," Cook said in remarks prepared for delivery. "On the other hand, if data show continued strength in the economy and slower disinflation, we may have more work to do." The Fed last week lifted the policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a 4.75%-5.00% range, and said "some additional policy firming may be appropriate." "I am closely watching developments in the banking sector, which have the potential to tighten credit conditions and counteract some of that momentum," Cook said.

SummarySummary Companies February PCE growth slowsVirgin Orbit announces layoff plans, shares tankFutures up: Dow 0.37%, S&P 0.28%, Nasdaq 0.14%March 31 (Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes were set to open higher on Friday after data showed inflation slowed in February, supporting hopes of a softer monetary policy approach from the Federal Reserve. Traders' bets of a 25-basis-point rate hike in May stand at 55.5%, with odds of a pause at 44.5%, according to CME Group's Fedwatch tool. "But in terms of the Fed's calculus, they'll have to have more confirmation that disinflation is really taking hold beyond just a few data points here and there." U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell to a session low of 3.534% after the data. The KBW Regional banking index (.KRX) and the S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK), which houses major banks, have lost 19% and 14%, respectively, so far during the quarter.

SummarySummary Companies February PCE data due at 8:30 am ETVirgin Orbit announces layoff plans, shares tankFutures mixed: Dow up 0.23%, S&P up 0.19%, Nasdaq flatMarch 31 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were mixed on Friday as investors awaited inflation data for cues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path amid receding fears of a banking crisis. The Commerce Department is expected to release the February reading of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, at 8:30 am ET (12:30 GMT). The KBW Regional banking index (.KRX) and the S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK), which houses major banks, have lost 19% and 14%, respectively, so far during the quarter. ET, Dow e-minis were up 76 points, or 0.23%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 7.75 points, or 0.19%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 1.25 points, or 0.01%. Reporting by Amruta Khandekar and Ankika Biswas; Editing by Nivedita Bhattacharjee and Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: Dogged inflation shades rebound
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But for most major stock and bond investments beyond the banking sector itself, the quarter remained a pretty upbeat one overall. "Inflation remains too high and recent indicators reinforce my view that there is more work to do," said Boston Fed chief Susan Collins. Futures markets are still broadly split on the chances of another Fed hike in May, but leaned a bit more on Friday to one more quarter point move. But core inflation, excluding energy and unprocessed food, ticked up as forecast to a new record high for the bloc at 7.5%. Germany said import price inflation fell to its lowest in two years at 2.8% in February.

☆ Futures muted as investors await key inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Futures: Dow flat, S&P up 0.04%, Nasdaq down 0.02%March 31 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were flat on Friday as investors steered clear of big bets ahead of crucial inflation data, amid receding fears of a banking crisis. The Commerce Department is expected to release February data on the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index- the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, at 8:30 am ET (12:30 GMT). Consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan is also due later in the day. New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams and Fed Governor Lisa Cook are also scheduled to speak later on Friday. ET, Dow e-minis were flat, S&P 500 e-minis were up 1.75 points, or 0.04%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 2 points, or 0.02%.

☆ Stock futures are flat Thursday evening: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 29, 2023. U.S. stock futures were flat on Thursday night. S&P 500 futures rose 0.03%, while Nasdaq 100 futures fell by less than 0.01%. "The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance," Krosby continued. "Economic concerns enveloping recession fears haven't vanished as the yield curve still represents a counter to the market's climb higher," Krosby added.

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