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☆ Is the Fed 'sleepwalking into a policy mistake?': Abrdn analyst calls for faster easing of rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-02 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

He pointed to economic data like non-farm payrolls, saying they were later revised to reflect a weaker economic picture. Akintewe said: "Is the economy already weaker than the headline data suggests and [the Fed] should already be easing?" "And once you've done that amount of easing, it takes six to eight months to transmit that." "The other question no one seems to ask is, why is the policy rate still at 5.5% when inflation is down [to] almost 2.5%? Like, do you need a 300 basis point real policy rate in this kind of environment with all the uncertainty that we're facing?"

Persons: abdrn, Kenneth Akintewe, Akintewe Organizations: U.S . Labor Department, of Labor Statistics, Fed, U.S, CNBC Locations: U.S

☆ The Fed's preferred inflation indicator is out Friday. Here's what to expect
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-29 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

While the Fed uses a whole dashboard of indicators to measure inflation, the PCE index is its go-to data point and its sole forecasting tool when members release their quarterly projections. Policymakers especially hone in on the core PCE measure, which excludes food and energy, when making interest rate decisions. "To me, it's going to be just one more piece of evidence to confirm that the Fed is seeing sustainable inflation readings at a sustainable pace," said Beth Ann Bovino, chief economist at U.S. Bank. Any slight upticks are "really just base-effect kinds of things that aren't going to change the Fed's view." Fed officials aren't declaring victory over inflation yet, though recent statements indicate a more positive outlook.

Persons: Dow Jones, Beth Ann Bovino, aren't Organizations: Federal, Commerce Department, Fed, Labor, Dow, U.S . Bank

☆ The Fed now will focus on the employment part of its mission — and for good reason
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-28 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Various indicators are pointing to a labor market that, if not in outright deterioration, is at least slowing. "Declines of this magnitude tend to occur when the economy is heading into recession and when the unemployment rate is on the ascent," he said. The unemployment rate almost always either heads up or down, with little evidence of extended plateaus. The current momentum is up, though the consensus estimate for August is that the unemployment rate will tick down to 4.2%, according to FactSet. "When you talk to firms ... it doesn't look like the labor market is not healthy," former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said Tuesday on CNBC.

Persons: Troy Ludtka, Jerome Powell, Beth Ann Bovino, Mary Daly, Nonfarm, Nikko, Loretta Mester, hasn't Organizations: Federal, Nikko Securities, Conference Board, Board, Labor Department, San Francisco Fed, Bloomberg News, Cleveland Fed, CNBC Locations: U.S

☆ Restaurants fight back against the FTC crackdown on 'junk fees' as diners balk at new charges
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-24 | by ( Amelia Lucas | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Leopatrizi | E+ | Getty ImagesLawmakers want to crack down on "junk fees," but restaurants are trying to stay out of the fight. The Biden administration has broadly targeted so-called junk fees, like an undisclosed service charge for concert tickets or unexpected resort fees when checking out of a hotel. The Biden Administration is attempting to crack down on so-called "junk fees" in retirement accounts with a rule prosed by the U.S. Labor Department. Lobbyists vs. legislatorsOn the state level, restaurants have already had some success in getting excluded from the fight over junk fees. California's SB 478 law would ban so-called "junk fees".

Persons: Birkin, Biden, Joe Biden, Chip Somodevilla, Biden administration's crosshairs, Sean Kennedy, Kennedy, Andres Clavero, Clavero, Galit, Peter Demetri, Tai Huh, Huh, CSHG Organizations: Getty, National Restaurant Association, Federal Trade Commission, White, Biden Administration, U.S . Labor Department, National Women's Law, Cambridge Street Hospitality Group, Health, Restaurant Association, California's Locations: Los Angeles, Chicago, Washington ,, New York, Denver, Asian, Massachusetts, California, –, Oakland , California

☆ The Big Number: 818,000
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Santul Nerkar | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The U.S. labor market has been less resilient than was initially believed. On Wednesday, the Labor Department said that the economy had added 818,000 fewer jobs than it had previously reported for the 12 months that ended in March. The number means employers had overstated job growth by about 28 percent per month, especially in industries like hospitality and professional services. This adjusted number is an initial estimate of an annual revision, in which monthly employment figures from the Labor Department are reconciled with more accurate state unemployment reports. “We’ve known that things on net were probably moving gradually in the wrong direction,” said Guy Berger, director of economic research at Burning Glass Institute, a labor market research and data firm.

Persons: “, ”, Guy Berger Organizations: Labor Department, Glass

☆ Rate cuts won't prevent a recession and the economy is deteriorating 'quite rapidly,' investment strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewMarkets are confident that rate cuts will benefit stocks and the economy, but one strategist says lower borrowing costs won't stave off a recession. Yet, BCA Research chief asset allocation strategist Garry Evans said this week that lower rates can't avert a looming downturn. "There's things that are breaking down quite rapidly now," Evans said, including recent manufacturing data. Related storiesEvans said labor and manufacturing data, plus a range of global data like weak Japanese exports, are showing signs of a tough economic outlook worldwide. AdvertisementEvans said the Fed will likely cut rates in September, but that it won't prevent a pending recession.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Jackson, Stocks, Garry Evans, Evans Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, Research, CNBC, Labor Department, Wednesday, Institute for Supply Management

☆ The one question on everyone’s mind about interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

That’s precisely why the Fed is poised to cut interest rates in September for the first time since 2020. Therein lies the one question on everyone’s mind: How aggressively will the Fed ultimately cut rates? A high threshold for jumbo rate cutsThe Fed makes its decisions on interest rates consistent with what’s happening in the economy. Fed officials have mostly signaled that they’re finally ready to cut rates, but some have still expressed some hesitance. But, for now, there’s no emergency demanding the Fed cut rates aggressively next month, or any time later in the year.

Persons: Jerome Powell, pare, Price, Powell, “ They’re, ” Tani Fukui, they’re, Raphael Bostic, ” Powell, Ryan Sweet, Sweet, That’s Organizations: Washington CNN, Labor Department, Kansas City Fed, Fed, Traders, MetLife Investment Management, CNN, Atlanta Fed, Citi, Oxford Economics Locations: Unemployment, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ A recession is coming in the U.S., and 'a few rate cuts' won't prevent it, says strategist
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | In Ying-Shan-Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Evans pointed to signs of the economy slowing down, including what he called the "deteriorating" U.S. labor market. The Fed funds futures market suggests that investors are expecting at least three rate cuts by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. "A few rate cuts are not going to prevent a recession. Average recession is 10 months… It takes something like a year before fed cuts actually start to give a boost to the economy," he said. "The market believes that the fed fund rate at the end of next year will be 3%.

Persons: Garry Evans, Evans, It's, Jerome Powell, isn't Organizations: BCA Research, . Federal, BCA Research's, U.S . Labor Department, Traders Locations: U.S, Jackson

☆ Nonfarm payroll growth revised down by 818,000, Labor Department says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-21 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The U.S. economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the 12-month period through March 2024, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. Wall Street had been waiting for the revisions numbers, with many economists expecting a sizeable reduction in the originally reported figures. "The labor market appears weaker than originally reported," said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. "A deteriorating labor market will allow the Fed to highlight both sides of the dual mandate and investors should expect the Fed to prepare markets for a cut at the September meeting." Nonfarm payroll jobs totaled 158.7 million through July, an increase of 1.6% from the same month in 2023.

Persons: Jeffrey Roach, Jared Bernstein, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell Organizations: Labor Department, of Labor Statistics, BLS, Federal Reserve, LPL, Goldman Locations: U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ Consumer spending jumped in July as retail sales were up 1%, much better than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

watch nowConsumer spending held up even better than expected in July as inflation pressures showed more signs of easing, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Advanced retail sales accelerated 1% on the month, according to numbers that are adjusted for seasonality but not inflation. Excluding auto-related items, sales increased 0.4%, also better than the 0.1% forecast. Miscellaneous retailers saw a plunge of 2.5% while gas stations saw receipts climb just 0.1% and clothing stores were down 0.1%. There was one counterpoint to that in another data release Thursday in which the Labor Department said import prices increased 0.1% in July, slightly ahead of the forecast for no change.

Persons: Dow Jones, Richard de Chazal, William Blair Organizations: Commerce Department, Stock, Labor Department

☆ Why you shouldn't worry about the job market and a recession just yet
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Read previewThe labor market is trending in the wrong direction, but it might not be time to sound the alarm just yet. The unemployment rate has risen for four consecutive months and at 4.3%, it's the highest it's been in nearly three years. However, there are some reasons it might be too soon to freak out about the labor market. AdvertisementSatyam Panday, chief US economist for S&P Global Ratings, said in a note published on August 6 that the slowing labor market appears to suggest a "normalization" of a previously red-hot labor market, rather than an "economy that's about to slip into a recession." The labor market might get worseTo be sure, there are plenty of reasons to remain concerned about the state of the labor market.

Persons: —, there's, it's, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Manuel Abecasis, they've, It's, Goldman Sachs that's, Satyam Panday, Michael Gapen, JP Morgan, Claudia Sahm Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Department, Federal, Satyam, Bank of America, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, New Century Advisors Locations: US

☆ Annual inflation rate slows to 2.9% in July, lowest since 2021
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The consumer price index, a broad-based measure of prices for goods and services, increased 0.2% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.9%. Excluding food and energy, core CPI came in at a 0.2% monthly increase and a 3.2% annual rate, meeting expectations. The annual rate is the lowest since March 2021, while the core is the lowest since April 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report. A 0.4% increase in shelter costs was responsible for 90% of the all-items inflation increase. Food prices increased 0.2% while energy was flat.

Persons: Joe Raedle, Dow Jones Organizations: Getty, Labor Department, Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: Miami , Florida

☆ Wednesday's big CPI inflation report could mark a change in thinking for the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

watch nowThe PPI report, seen as a gauge of wholesale inflation, showed prices up just 0.2% in July and about 2.2% from a year ago. Still, investors are looking for the Fed at its September meeting to start cutting interest rates, considering that inflation is weakening and so is the labor market. Another benign inflation report "makes the Fed completely comfortable that they can shift their focus away from inflation and toward labor," said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at PGIM Fixed Income. There are cracks forming in the labor market backdrop." "I'm as curious about [Wednesday's] inflation report as anyone else, but I think it would take a real outlier to change the Fed's tune from 1) shifting to labor as its focus, and 2) seriously thinking about cutting in September," Porcelli said.

Persons: Jim Baird, Plante, Baird, Dow Jones, there's, Tom Porcelli, Porcelli Organizations: Walmart, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Financial Advisors, PPI, Fed, Traders

☆ Wholesale inflation measure rose 0.1% in July, less than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A key measure of wholesale inflation rose less than expected in July, opening the door further for the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates. Excluding volatile food and energy components, core PPI was flat. A further core measure that also excludes trade services showed an increase of 0.3%. Trade services prices fell 1.3% while margins for machinery and vehicles wholesaling tumbled 4.1%. An increase of 2.3% in portfolio management offset some of the decline in services prices.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI, BLS, Trade Locations: Brooklyn, New York City

☆ Three-year inflation outlook hits record low in New York Fed consumer survey
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The latest views from the monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations indicate that respondents see inflation staying elevated over the next year but then receding in the next couple of years after that. In fact, the three-year portion of the survey showed consumers expecting inflation at just 2.3%, down 0.6 percentage point from June and the lowest in the history of the survey, going back to June 2013. That's still a full percentage point away from the Fed's 2% goal but about one-third of where it was two years ago. While the medium-term outlook improved, inflation expectations on the one- and five-year horizons stood unchanged at 3% and 2.8% respectively. Respondents expect the price of gas to increase by 3.5% over the next year, 0.8 percentage point less than in June, and food to see a rise of 4.7%, which is 0.1 percentage point lower than a month ago.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: New York Federal, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Fed Locations: New

☆ 401(k) rollover advice rule is at risk. Here's what retirement savers need to know
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Two federal district courts in Texas issued a national "stay" of the regulation, in separate rulings in July. The rule will "create a level playing field" for all trusted investment professionals, according to a Labor Department spokesperson. "The insurance industry can continue to advise investors and sell annuities, without giving advice that is imprudent, disloyal, or tainted by misrepresentations or overcharges," the spokesperson said. Current retirement rollover advice rules stay in effectIn the meantime, the current status quo remains in effect, attorneys said. Current rules let brokers give investment advice that earns them a higher commission but isn't in savers' best interests, the Labor Department said during the rulemaking process.

Persons: Julie Su, Chip Somodevilla, Fred Reish, Drinker Biddle, didn't Organizations: Getty, U.S, Northern, Northern District of, American, of, United States Department of Labor, Americans, Consumer Choice, Department of Labor, Labor Department, Department of Justice, Biden, National Association of Insurance, Financial Advisors, National Association Locations: Texas, Northern District, Northern District of Texas, ACLI, NAIFA, Dallas, Fort Worth

☆ This industry is defying America’s slowing job market
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-10 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Enter America’s top job creator: The mighty health care industry. Demand for health care workers remains red hot, according to recent government data on job openings. In June, the health care and social assistance industry had the highest seasonally adjusted job openings rate of any industry, at 7.6%, well above the total rate across the job market of 5.5% that month. That has translated into fatter paychecks for health care workers compared to the general private sector. “Virtually every nurse or health care tech in the country has a job,” Girard said.

Persons: Washington CNN —, there’s, ”, Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter’s, ” David Mafe, Mafe, it’s, “ We’ve, ” Mafe, “ We’re, Sebastien Girard, Girard, ” Girard, “, Pollak, ” Pollak, “ She’s, She’s Organizations: Washington CNN, Employers, Labor Department, CNN, “, Novant Health Locations: UCHealth, Denver, North Carolina, “, California

☆ The unemployment insurance program is unprepared for a recession, experts say
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-09 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

However, the system that workers rely on to collect unemployment benefits is at risk of buckling — as it did during the Covid-19 pandemic — if there's another economic downturn, experts say. Unemployment insurance provides temporary income support to laid-off workers, thereby helping prop up consumer spending and the broader U.S. economy during downturns. There's also wide variation among states — which administer the programs — relative to factors like benefit amount, duration and eligibility, according to the report, authored by more than two dozen unemployment insurance experts. Why the unemployment insurance program buckledJoblessness ballooned in the pandemic's early days. Claims for unemployment benefits peaked at more than 6 million in early April 2020, up from roughly 200,000 a week before the pandemic.

Persons: Joe Raedle, Michele Evermore, There's, Andrew Stettner, NASI, Stettner, haven't, Indivar Dutta, Gupta Organizations: Getty, The Century Foundation, U.S . Labor Department's, National Academy of Social Insurance, Labor, Labor Department, Roosevelt Institute Locations: Florida, Sunrise , Florida, U.S

☆ Markets no longer think the Fed needs to be as aggressive with interest rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-09 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

In just a few short days, markets have taken some of the urgency off the table for the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates. Earlier in the week, there were even some calls for an emergency intermeeting rate cut. At the least, markets figured the Fed was a near-certainty to reduce benchmark rates by at least a half percentage point. Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel has been one of the loudest voices for aggressive Fed action, calling Monday for an emergency cut . The Fed has been holding its benchmark rate in a range between 5.25%-5.50% for more than a year.

Persons: we've, Steven Wieting, Wieting, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Jerome Powell, Siegel, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reserve, Citi Wealth, Labor Department

☆ Dollar gains after U.S. jobless claims fall more than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Japanese yen banknotes of various denominations are arranged in Kawasaki, Japan, on Friday, June 23, 2023. The dollar rose on Thursday after new U.S. labor market data showed that unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, easing fears of an imminent recession. Initial jobless claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week ended Aug. 3, the Labor Department said on Thursday, suggesting fears that the labor market is unraveling were overblown. The sharp moves in the yen pushed the dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six others, including the yen, to a weekly high, before backing off. The Australian dollar rose 1.12% to $0.659, while the New Zealand dollar was up 0.25% at $0.601.

Persons: Shinichi Uchida, Eugene Epstein, Uchida, Marc Chandler, Jerome Powell, Vasu Menon, bitcoin, Ether Organizations: Labor Department, Bank of Japan's, Bannockburn Global Forex, U.S . Federal, Swiss, New Zealand Locations: Kawasaki, Japan, North America, Moneycorp, ., Bannockburn

☆ Weekly jobless claims fall to 233,000, less than expected, in a positive sign for labor market
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Initial claims for unemployment insurance totaled less than expected last week, countering other signs that the labor market is weakening. Stock market futures, which had been negative earlier, turned sharply positive following the 8:30 a.m. In the previous week, claims had jumped by 14,000, adding to worries that layoffs are on the rise. "If you're looking for additional weakness in the labor market, you'll need to find it somewhere else." Concerns escalated over the state of the labor market following last Friday's nonfarm payrolls report, which showed an increase of just 114,000 in July.

Persons: Dow Jones, Beryl, Robert Frick, nonfarm Organizations: Labor Department, Navy Federal Credit Union, Federal Reserve Locations: Michigan, Texas, U.S

☆ 37-year-old mom earns $73,000 in one of the most in-demand jobs in the world—and it doesn't require a degree: 'I love what I do'
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Morgan Smith Mickey Todiwala | Morgan Smith | Mickey Todiwala | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Jackson, 37, is a technician at Vestas, a wind turbine manufacturer, in Bee County, Texas, and earns $73,000 per year. The Labor Department reports that wind turbine service technicians have one of the highest rates of injury and illness of all occupations. Here's how Jackson earns $73,000 a year as a wind turbine service technician in Texas. Mickey Todiwala | CNBC Make ItWhile you don't need a bachelor's degree to become a wind turbine service technician, some jobs might require you to complete a 2-year technical program or apprenticeship. "The wind turbines are smart, they're basically computers and constantly communicating to us what is going on with them."

Persons: Jessica Jackson, —, Jackson, It's, Jackson's, Mickey Todiwala, Vestas, She's Organizations: CNBC, The Labor Department, University of Arizona, Blattner Energy, Blattner Locations: Jackson, Bee County , Texas, U.S, Texas, Vestas

☆ Chicago Fed President Goolsbee says if economy deteriorates, Fed will 'fix it'
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee on Monday vowed that the central bank would react to signs of weakness in the economy and indicated that interest rates could be too restrictive now. Policymakers have been focused on the "real" fed funds rate, which is the Fed's benchmark minus the inflation rate. As inflation declines, the real rate increases — unless the Fed chooses to cut. The real rate now is around 2.73%; Fed officials judge the long-term real rate to be closer to 0.5%. Traders expect the Fed to slice 1.25-1.5 percentage points off the funds rate by the end of the year, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, nonfarm, I'm, we're Organizations: Chicago Federal, Dow Jones, Fed, Labor Department, Traders

☆ Here are all the reasons why Monday's major market wreck is happening
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on August 05, 2024, in New York City. "The market got a little bit ahead of itself in that run-up that it's had. Soon, traders began pricing in aggressive Fed rate cuts after expecting the central bank to do little the rest of the year. "This is the confluence of a very high market that has been soaring and riding on a lot of sentiment and emotion. For several months now, the momentum trade has been the successful trade," said Michael Farr, CEO of Farr, Miller & Washington.

Persons: Spencer Platt, Robert Teeter, it's, John Belton, —, Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump, Michael Farr, Farr Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Getty, Federal Reserve, Silvercrest Asset Management, Dow Jones, Labor Department, Gabelli, Bank of Japan, Nvidia, Democratic, Republican, Miller & Washington Locations: New York City, cumulatively, Ukraine, U.S

☆ 3 reasons to worry about July’s weak jobs report — and 1 reason not to panic
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-03 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

The Federal Reserve now has egg on its face after it kept interest rates near a quarter-century high earlier this week. By now, there’s ample evidence that the job market, a key driver of the US economy, has lost steam. Here are three reasons to be worried about July’s shockingly weak jobs report — and one silver lining. Consumer demand itself also hasn’t weakened just yet, despite the highest interest rates in more than two decades. Generally, the Fed makes its decision congruent with what’s going on with inflation or the job market.

Persons: , July’s, ’, ”, Claudia Sahm, Sahm, Elizabeth Crofoot, Alicia Wallace, Jerome Powell, ” Crofoot, ” Michael Gapen, Matt Egan, weren’t, ” Truist’s Keith Lerner, they’ll, hasn’t, ” Chris Rupkey, Alan Blinder, Paul Krugman Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Bloomberg, Bank of America, Dow, Nasdaq, Wall, Investors, Labor, Citigroup, JPMorgan Locations: New York, decelerate, American

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