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☆ Exclusive: CME to launch nickel contract using prices from new platform -sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Pratima Desai | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

CME want a nickel contract, they are planning to base it on traded prices on GCH's physical platform," one of the sources with direct knowledge of the matter said. In response to a request for comment, CME said: "We cannot comment on whether we are developing any particular product." Nickel industry sources said illiquidity meant LME nickel prices often did not represent the fundamentals of the market. "There aren't really any alternatives to the LME contract at the moment and the market needs a liquid contract. Using ShFE's nickel contract is difficult for non-Chinese firms as they need to be affiliated with a local entity and because it is priced in yuan.

Power-hungry aluminium producers in Yunnan and neighbouring provinces were already operating at reduced capacity, some of them since September, dragging down China's national output. The latest cuts will impact around 740,000 tonnes of annual production capacity, adding to the million tonnes already offline, according to industry consultancy Mysteel. Aluminium capacity has grown to around 5.25 million tonnes, making it the fourth largest provincial producer after Shandong, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang. January's estimated annualised production was 40.50 million tonnes, a drop of almost one million tonnes over the last five months. Registered inventory on both exchanges has risen fast, cushioning the supply chain from the loss of Chinese production momentum.

☆ G20 watchdog says commodity market concentration poses threat to wider economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-20 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The FSB, which coordinates financial rules for G20 economies, said that forced governments to offer liquidity to some cash-strapped market participants. But fallout from the surge in nickel prices echoed concerns over large, concentrated positions and opacity in commodities more generally. The commodities market adapted to stress by switching to opaque over-the-counter (OTC) or off-exchange contracts where margin requirements are less strict, making ties between commodities and banks more complex, the report said. FSB Commodities Graphic 1The FSB said vulnerabilities in commodities are similar to those in non-bank financial intermediaries as economies went into COVID-19 lockdowns, and are now being addressed. FSB Commodities Graphic 2Reporting by Huw Jones; Editing by Kirsten DonovanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Column: The devil's metal strikes again in Trafigura nickel fraud case
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Andy Home | Thomson Reuters | Senior Metals Columnist Who Previously Covered Industrial Metals Markets For Metals Week | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Appearances can be deceptive when it comes to nickel, as Trafigura has just found out half a millennium later. Just as it's impossible to say whether some of the recent price volatility on the LME nickel contract was down to Trafigura restructuring hedge positions. The problem is that LME nickel trading has been volatile and unpredictable ever since last year's meltdown. There is now also a growing crisis of confidence in the world of physical nickel trading. Nickel could really do with a reputational break but recent history suggests it's just a matter of time before the devil's metal strikes again.

With Europe's winter energy crisis abating and power prices falling, there are growing expectations that idled zinc smelter capacity will restart. The exchange's latest positioning report shows four dominant long positions on cash zinc as of Monday. All of which serves to underline just how depleted LME zinc stocks are. STOCKED OUTLME zinc stocks total just 25,075 tonnes, less than one day's worth of global consumption. LME zinc pricing is going to remain volatile for a while yet as shorts betting on a return to surplus have to navigate today's low-stock reality.

Surging Shanghai metal stocks have injected an element of doubt into the bull narrative and the LME Index is now showing year-to-date gains of only 3% after a February pull-back. Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks of aluminium, copper and zincSEASONAL SURGEMetals bulls have been nervously watching the fast build in Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) stocks over the past few weeks. Copper stocks have grown equally dramatically, from 69,268 tonnes to 242,009 tonnes over the same period. It is currently assessed by Shanghai Metal Market at a bombed-out $22.50 a tonne, down from an October high of $152.50. WAIT AND WATCHIt's difficult to say until China's seasonal stocks pattern plays out in full.

Western policy-makers are still mindful of the supply-chain chaos caused by U.S. sanctions on Russian aluminium giant Rusal and its owner Oleg Deripaska in 2018. A unilateral move to shut out Russian aluminium will accelerate the splintering of what was once a highly globalised market-place. Excess Chinese product in the Asian region is now being supplemented by excess Russian primary aluminium as many Western users choose to self-sanction and not buy Russian metal. Were the United States to impose high tariffs on Russian metal, the LME need only suspend delivery to U.S. locations, a precedent set with the United Kingdom's post-war tariffs on Russian nickel. The LME decided in November not preemptively to ban Russian metal deliveries ahead of formal government action against Russian producers.

Cobalt has lost share to lithium as the Chinese EV market in particular pivots towards non-cobalt battery chemistry. The abrupt turnaround in both narrative and price has led to a surge in trading activity on the CME cobalt contract as producers and consumers respond to the shifting landscape. CME cobalt price, total volume and market open interestCHANGE OF GEARCobalt's fortunes are still tied to the EV sector but the relationship is changing. That eye-watering growth rate would be stronger still were it not for a shift towards non-cobalt battery chemistries, led by China, the world's largest EV market. COBALT FUTURES TAKE OFFOne beneficiary of this turnaround in cobalt market dynamics has been the CME (CME.O), which has seen activity in its cobalt contract mushroom since the middle of last year.

LONDON, Feb 3 (Reuters) - China was a net exporter of refined zinc last year for the first time since 2007, while exports of refined lead remained super strong for the second year running. China's net trade in refined leadTRADE SWITCHChina exported 116,500 tonnes of refined lead last year, the highest-volume outflow since 2007. The Flin Flon zinc smelter in Canada produced its last zinc in 2022 after more than 25 years of activity. That of the Florence secondary lead plant in South Carolina in 2021, by contrast, was an unexpected hit to the U.S. supply chain. If China gets there first, last year's east-west imbalances in both zinc and lead markets may last longer than expected.

Median 2023 price forecasts for all the core LME base metals are lower than both last year's price and current trading levels. The LME copper cash settlement price was $9,075 per tonne on Tuesday, up 10% on the start of January. A median forecast of $8,625 for the full year is 2.1% lower than last year's average of $8,814 per tonne. Aluminium is viewed as more finely balanced, with a median forecast supply surplus of 80,535 tonnes this year and 92,100 tonnes in 2024. That said, last January's median forecast proved surprisingly close to the mark at $34,880 in what was a year of extraordinary volatility.

China's net refined copper imports and year-on-year changeBOOMING IMPORTSThe strength of last year's imports was even more surprising given the financial problems at privately-owned Maike Group. But it has clearly had minimal impact on the overall flow of refined copper into China. But China's imports of Russian copper actually fell by 20% to 324,000 tonnes in 2022. China's net imports of refined copper were running below year-earlier levels through May but steadily accelerated over the second part of the year. Goldman suggests that a sign of restocking by China's copper sector would be net refined imports being consistently higher than 280,000 tonnes per month.

China's own production of refined tin was flat year-on-year at 165,900 tonnes in 2022, according to Shanghai Metal Market. ShFE tin price, market open interest and stocksSHIFT IN POSITIONINGWhile China has reshaped tin's fundamental picture, the price recovery has forced an equally significant shift in fund positioning. Investment funds turned net short on the LME tin contract in September as the price was imploding. Tin market open interest collapsed from 102,106 to 71,218 contracts in the week before the Lunar New Year holidays, indicating a big clean-out of short positions. GOLDILOCKS PRICEThe tin price is now in the Goldilocks zone, not high enough to frighten off physical users, and not low enough to threaten existing supply.

☆ Davos 2023: LME CEO says nickel reforms to be implemented 'relatively quickly'
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Divya Chowdhury | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 18 (Reuters) - The London Metal Exchange (LME) will implement recommendations on accountability and position limits "relatively quickly" from an independent review of last year's nickel crisis to prevent market distortions and improve risk monitoring, its chief executive officer said on Wednesday. "The recommendations around accountability levels and position limits are particularly important, are broadly rules-based, so could be brought about quite quickly," LME CEO Matthew Chamberlain said on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. The LME, the world's largest and oldest metals forum, annulled all nickel trades on that day, for which it is facing legal action, and suspended the market for the first time since 1988. Independent consultancy Oliver Wyman was appointed by the LME to carry out a review of the debacle. He said the LME plans to make its platform more attractive to traders by not increasing fees in 2023 "even with inflation".

Currently trading around $9,130, the copper price is up by 9.6% since the start of January. Investors played copper from the short side for much of last year, if they were prepared to engage at all. The funds' sudden return is a sign that many are betting on a much sunnier outlook. "To the degree these short positions have not already covered, this may support copper in the short term", the bank said. It's clear, though, that copper long positioning is primarily a bet on Chinese recovery, underpinned by measures to revitalise a foundering property sector and more metals-intensive green infrastructure.

It's the lowest end-year inventory in the system this century and reflects two years of steady withdrawals which have left exchange stocks of metals such as zinc and lead almost depleted. It's no coincidence that all the LME base metals have experienced bouts of extreme tightness over the last couple of years. Zinc stocks were down by 65% and lead stocks down by 59% on December 2021. LME stocks could desperately do with any sort of rebuild, whether seasonal or cyclical. So far, however, significant arrivals remain conspicuous by their absence and until that changes, low visible inventory is going to keep roiling the LME base metals.

☆ Exclusive: UK watchdog blocks LME plan to restart Asian hours nickel trade-sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Pratima Desai | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The world's largest metals trading exchange was forced to suspend all nickel activity for eight days in March 2022, after prices spiked more than 50% during Asian trading hours to hit a record above $100,000 a tonne. Volumes and liquidity on the LME have collapsed since then, partly due to the continued suspension of nickel trade in the Asian time zone. The LME had said on Nov. 28 that it hoped to resume trading during Asian hours within two weeks. "The regulator wants the LME to monitor nickel trading and make sure volatility is contained. "The regulator needs to be sure that if Asian hours nickel trade was to resume, supervision is effective.

The four each held a sizeable short position of between 13,000 and 24,000 lots, equivalent to 78,000 to 144,000 tonnes. LME warehouses held just 80,088 tonnes of nickel stocks when Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. The mix of producer hedging and speculative overlay in the short position landscape is impossible to know with any precision. It's worth remembering that Tsingshan is itself a huge nickel producer, albeit not in a form that can be delivered against an LME short position. Excerpt from Oliver Wyman reportLATE ARRIVALThe shorts were not helped by the rapid build-up of a long position on March 7 which the report links to "one financial client with no material existing nickel position".

LONDON, Jan 10 (Reuters) - The London Metal Exchange (LME) said on Tuesday it will set out by the end of the first quarter how it will deliver on the recommendations of an independent report into the nickel crisis last year. Months after turbulence highlighted shortcomings in LME oversight, the nickel contract remains broken. It appointed management consultants Oliver Wyman to carry out a review of the nickel trading debacle last June. Part of the problem is that only about 21% of global production or 650,000 tonnes can be delivered against the LME nickel contract. "The LME Nickel Committee will continue to explore whether any changes to the LME Nickel contract ... may be beneficial to the market," the LME said.

Although commanding a weighting of just 0.936%, lower than any other industrial metal, lead is included in the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) for the first time this year. LME lead three-month price, stocks and spreadsSTOCKED OUTLME lead stocks fell by 54% to 25,150 tonnes over the course of last year. The distribution of LME warehouse stocks says a lot about the underlying stresses in the physical supply chain. China has emerged as a supplier of last resort to a stretched Western market. REBALANCINGThe lead market that has been trying to rebalance for two years and the return of Nyrstar's Port Pirie smelter in Australia after three months of maintenance should help.

LONDON, Jan 6 (Reuters) - March 2022 will go down in the history books as the moment the global nickel market broke down. The search is on for a new nickel price discovery process. Global Commodities Holdings (GCH) thinks it has a solution, a blast from the LME's own distant past that could have far-reaching consequences for industrial metals trading. This is self-evidently true of the LME nickel contract, which simply could not absorb the scale of short positions accumulated by China's Tsingshan Group. It may not just be nickel players keeping a close eye on GCH's proposed new metals pricing solution.

The additional demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and tighter supplies of piped gas placed enormous strain on the global market, spurring an energy crisis that pushed gas prices to historic highs. Newcastle coal futures have soared almost 140% in 2022, the biggest jump since 2008. U.S. gas futures jumped by more than 20% and Dutch wholesale gas prices rose by almost 8%, both rising for a third consecutive year. Power-generation fuels - coal, natural gas and gasoil - outperform other energy products in 2022 following cut in Russian energy supplies to EuropeBecause Europe will continue to import LNG to rebuild gas inventories next year after winter, gas prices are expected to remain elevated as limited new supplies come onstream. However, a European cap on gas prices starting in February could keep a lid on the market and reduce the volatility seen this year.

Industrial metals, iron ore and rubber are on track to finish in negative territory, pushed down in 2022 by China's strict zero-COVID policy and fears of a world recession. The additional demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) amid tighter supplies of piped gas placed enormous strain on the global market, spurring an energy crisis that pushed gas prices to historic highs. U.S. gas futures and Dutch wholesale gas prices have jumped by more than 20%, rising for a third consecutive year. Power-generation fuels - coal, natural gas and gasoil - outperform other energy products in 2022 following cut in Russian energy supplies to EuropeBecause Europe will continue importing LNG to rebuild gas inventories next year after winter, gas prices are expected to remain elevated amid limited new supplies coming on-stream. However, a European cap on gas prices starting in February could help keep a lid on the market and reduce the volatility seen this year.

☆ Judge dismisses demands for LME disclosures on cancelled nickel trades
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

AQR Capital Management said after the ruling it would continue to evaluate all legal options. The other claimants in the filing were Winton Capital Management, Capstone Investment Advisors, Flow Traders (FLOW.AS) and DRW Commodities. The London Metal Exchange was represented by global law firm Hogan Lovells, instructing Brick Court Chambers. "Hogan Lovells has today secured an important victory for its client the London Metal Exchange (LME)," it said in a statement. The LME also faces lawsuits from U.S. hedge fund Elliott Associates and Jane Street Global Trading, which are suing the LME for $456 million and $15.3 million, respectively, for the cancelled nickel trades.

LONDON, Dec 22 (Reuters) - China's imports of primary aluminium jumped to a one-year high of 110,700 tonnes in November in a significant reversal of the recent trend. China's imports and exports of primary unwrought aluminiumTRADE FLOWS FLIP AGAINChina's primary aluminium export surge has passed. Global aluminium production monthly change annualisedSLOWING MOMENTUMChina's renewed import appetite for primary aluminium looks at odds with the combination of lockdown-weakened demand and strong domestic production growth. Expressed in terms of annualised production, China's collective run-rate has dropped by almost 1.2 million tonnes since August. Sichuan briefly rationed power to industrial users, including aluminium smelters, in August because of a protracted drought in the hydro-rich province.

London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouse stocks of the galvanising metal total 36,525 tonnes, the lowest amount this century. LME zinc price, spread and stocks; Shanghai Futures Exchange stocksSMELTER DISRUPTIONGlobal refined zinc output fell by 3.2% in January-October, according to the ILZSG, matching the drop-off in usage. Shanghai Metal Market (SMM) estimates total "social" inventories of zinc ingot across seven domestic markets at a low 56,000 tonnes. The longer-term question-mark over Europe's power-hungry smelters hasn't gone away, injecting a whole new twist in the zinc market narrative. In the short term the zinc market is going to remain beholden to the European power market.

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