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☆ Morning Bid: Debt ceiling jitters, Turkey vote, Soros ditches Tesla
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

President Joe Biden is meeting Congressional leaders on Tuesday to try to hash out a compromise to raise the debt limit and avoid a catastrophic default. A regulatory filing on Friday from the family office of George Soros showed the 92-year old billionaire investor has sold his entire stake in Tesla. Soros bought shares in the electric vehicle maker, run by Elon Musk, in 2022, as well as convertible bonds in 2018. Soros wasn't alone in pulling out of some of the pandemic-era darlings in the first three months of the year. Friday's regulatory filing showed he loaded up on other big tech stocks, including Netflix, Uber, chipmaker Qualcomm and cloud-based data company Snowflake - which fellow 92-year old investor Warren Buffett bought into back in 2020.

☆ Erdogan’s Grip on Power Is Dented but Not Broken, Vote Shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Ben Hubbard | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

His government was accused of botching its response to catastrophic earthquakes that killed more than 50,000 people just three months ago. Despite all of that, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan came out with a lead over his main challenger in Turkish elections, according to official results released on Monday. With nearly all of the ballots counted on Monday, official preliminary results gave Mr. Erdogan 49.5 percent of the vote versus 44.9 percent for his main challenger, opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu. A third candidate, Sinan Ogan, received 5.2 percent, and his right-wing supporters are more likely to vote for Mr. Erdogan in the runoff, analysts say. Finally, Mr. Erdogan’s party and its allies maintained a commanding majority in the parliamentary vote, likely further increasing his ability to be re-elected.

☆ Four Takeaways from Turkey’s Nail-Biting Presidential Election
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Gulsin Harman | Ben Hubbard | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Turkey’s nail-biter election on Sunday made clear that the people’s faith in the country’s electoral system remains strong and that the incumbent, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is still a formidable political force, despite his failure to secure a first-round victory. A runoff is likely to be held on May 28 after preliminary results showed Mr. Erdogan with 49.4 percent of votes and his main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, with 45 percent, according to the state-run Anadolu news agency. Mr. Erdogan, who has led Turkey for 20 years, appeared to be in a strong position to emerge with another five-year term. Before the vote, most polls suggested a slight lead for Mr. Kilicdaroglu, the joint candidate of a newly formed alliance of six opposition parties. But the preliminary results showed the enduring appeal and influence of Mr. Erdogan.

☆ Turkish lira sinks to new record low on possibility of Erdogan re-election
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

The Turkish lira slipped 0.5% to trade at 19.70 against the US dollar, a record low. The uncertainty has investors in Turkish government bonds worrying about the country’s ability to pay them back. Supporters of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan celebrate at the AK Party headquarters on May 14, 2023 in Istanbul, Turkey. Annual consumer price inflation surged to 85% in October, before slowing to 44% in April, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute shows. “A victory for President Erdogan, which now looks like the base case scenario… would be negative for Turkey’s macroeconomic stability and financial markets,” Peach added.

☆ Turkey's lira and stock markets slide as President Erdogan gains momentum in tight presidential race
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The Turkish lira sank close to another record low with Turkey's presidential election heading for an unprecedented runoff, with one analyst forecasting further weakness for the currency over the short term. "Unfortunately it looks like [what] up to 49% of Turks have voted for is an economic crisis ... The YSK confirmed Monday afternoon that the presidential election would indeed go to a runoff on May 28.. Neither 20-year incumbent Erdogan nor Kilicdaroglu has so far cleared the 50% threshold needed to secure an outright victory. The currency was trading at 19.66 against the greenback as of 1 p.m. London time on Monday.

☆ Turkey faces unprecedented election runoff after Erdogan looks unlikely to win outright
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Supporters of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan attend a rally ahead of the May 14 presidential and parliamentary elections, in Istanbul, Turkey, on May 12, 2023. Turkey's presidential election could be headed for an unprecedented runoff, as neither 20-year incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan nor challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu had secured an outright win Monday morning. A candidate must get more than 50% of the vote to win the highly-charged race. If no one passes that threshold, the vote goes to a runoff election in the coming weeks. Whereas Kilicdaroglu, who is representing a united front of six different opposition parties all seeking to unseat Erdogan, vowed to win the election in a second round of voting.

But for the next two weeks, he may become the most important figure in Turkish politics, potentially deciding President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s political fate. Preliminary results from the YSK showed Erdogan as having received 49.51% of the vote, while Kilicdaroglu had 44.88%. Ogan, the third candidate, received 5.17%, enough to swing the runoff vote in favor of either of the candidates. But his political career began with the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), where he spent six years before splitting with it, partly due to its growing closeness with Erdogan’s AK Party, according to Turkish media. Formerly in the opposition, the MHP joined the People Alliance that is led by Erdogan’s AK Party in this election.

☆ Wikipedia cofounder slams Elon Musk for caving to Turkey's government and censoring tweets, says Wikipedia fought similar demands and won
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Grace Mayer | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Twitter announced it would "restrict access to some content in Turkey" right before the country's presidential election. Wikipedia cofounder Jimmy Wales criticized Twitter CEO Elon Musk's decision to restrict content. Twitter's Global Government Affairs account had tweeted about the changes ahead of Turkey's presidential election held on Sunday. Turkey's highest court determined that blocking the website was unconstitutional, and access to Wikipedia was restored in January 2020, The New York Times reported. Before Musk, Twitter agreed to around 50% of government requests.

☆ Turkey Election Maps: Why Erdogan Is Headed For a Runoff
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Lauren Leatherby | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

Central Turkey, a stronghold for Mr. Erdogan, voted mostly in the president’s favor. Mr. Erdogan appeared to have the edge as he heads into the runoff on May 28. 2023 Erdogan vote share compared to 2018 Lower Erdogan vote share Higher Erdogan vote share Mersin Diyarbakır Antalya Kayseri Gaziantep Izmir Bursa Samsun Konya Adana Ankara Istanbul In the areas hit hardest by the earthquake in February, most provinces shifted away from Mr. Erdogan. Presidential election results by year Candidates need 50 percent of vote to avoid a runoff election 2014 Recep Tayyip Erdogan Erdogan 51.8% Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu Ihsanoglu 38.4% Selahattin Demirtas Demirtas 9.8% 2018 Recep Tayyip Erdogan Erdogan 52.6% Muharrem Ince Ince 30.6% Selahattin Demirtas Demirtas 8.4% Meral Aksener Aksener 7.3% 2023 Recep Tayyip Erdogan Erdogan 49.5% Kemal Kilicdaroglu Kilicdaroglu 44.9% Sinan Ogan Ogan 5.2% Sources: Supreme Election Council, Anadolu Agency (unofficial election results). The vote was in many ways a referendum on the performance of Mr. Erdogan, Turkey’s dominant politician for 20 years.

☆ Analysis: Why Erdogan's fate matters to Biden and the US
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Stephen Collinson | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

Erdogan’s fate will have major implications not just for his country’s democracy, which he has worked to weaken, but for US foreign policy too. “Our people should be confident that we will definitely win, and we will bring democracy to this country,” he said. Biden’s entire presidency has unfolded in the shadow of autocrats, assaults on democracy and aspiring strongman leaders – abroad, and most remarkably at home. Biden confronts a threat from democracy at homeBut none of those leaders pose an existential threat to US democracy. Ahead of the election, Kilicdaroglu was talking in very similar terms about the need to preserve democracy as Biden does in the US.

☆ Erdogan's milestones as Turkey faces May 28 runoff vote
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

[1/2] Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan greets supporters at the AK Party headquarters in Ankara, Turkey May 15, 2023. August 2001: He establishes the Justice and Development Party, or AK Party (AKP), and is elected chairman. November 2002: The AKP wins elections with nearly 35% of votes after the worst economic slump since the 1970s, promising to break with past mismanagement and recessions. June 2018: Erdogan wins snap presidential elections. Though his popularity has suffered due to a cost-of-living crisis, Erdogan wins more votes than his rival but falls short of the 50% threshold needed to win in the first round, teeing up a May 28 runoff.

☆ ANALYST VIEW Markets tumble as Turkey faces runoff election after Erdogan leads first round
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

[1/2] Supporters of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan wave flags outside the AK Party headquarters, in Ankara, Turkey May 15, 2023. DEBT: Five-year credit default swaps jumped over 100 basis points from Friday and dollar bonds fell more than 7 cents. STOCKS: Borsa Istanbul issued a market-wide circuit breaker after the benchmark index (.XU100) dropped 6.38% in pre-market trading and was last down 2.7%. PIOTR MATYS, SENIOR FOX ANALYST, IN TOUCH CAPITAL MARKETS, POLAND:"When/if President Erdogan is re-elected, the lira should be trading far more freely. CLEMENS GRAFE AND BASAK EDIZGIL, GOLDMAN SACHS, LONDON:"The (rates and CDS) market dynamics post the initial move will be dependent on the FX market.

[1/5] Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan greets supporters at the AK Party headquarters in Ankara, Turkey May 15, 2023. His six-party alliance did not attract as many nationalist voters as expected, partly due to support for Kilicdaroglu's candidacy from a large pro-Kurdish party, the officials said. Both Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu are expected to meet Ogan in person in the coming days. Given their conservative views, Erdogan and Ogan are seen as easier allies, even though the president's alliance includes a small Islamist Kurdish party that Ogan also opposes. "His motto will be: if you vote for Kilicdaroglu he will be a lame duck," said another senior opposition official who acknowledged a tough road ahead.

☆ Turkey heads for runoff after tight presidential election
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Raphael Sanis | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: 1 min

As neither of the main candidates secured a majority in Turkey's presidential election, a runoff vote will take place on May 28. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is eyeing an extension to his 20-year reign. Opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is standing in his way.

☆ Turkey faces runoff election with Erdogan leading
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Reuters Editorial | ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

PoliticsTurkey faces runoff election with Erdogan leadingPostedTurkey headed for a runoff vote after President Tayyip Erdogan led over his opposition rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu in Sunday's election but fell short of an outright majority to extend his 20-year rule of the NATO-member country. Ryan Brooks reports.

☆ Erdogan and Challenger Appear Headed for Runoff Election in Turkey
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( Jared Malsin | Elvan Kivilcim | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan will likely face opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu in the second round of the presidential election on May 28. Photo Composite: Diana ChanISTANBUL—Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his main challenger said they were both prepared to accept a runoff election later this month with neither candidate claiming an outright victory in a vote that marked the most severe political challenge to the Turkish leader’s two decades in power. Early results appeared to show neither Mr. Erdogan or his top challenger, opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu , reached the 50% threshold required to avoid a runoff, which would take place on May 28.

☆ Erdogan ahead in Turkey initial vote results, but his margin is expected to narrow
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

ANKARA, May 14 (Reuters) - Preliminary results from Turkey's presidential election on Sunday showed Tayyip Erdogan ahead with 59.47% compared to opposition rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu with 34.79%, though pollsters expected the gap to narrow in the tight contest. HaberTurk and other Turkish broadcasters said the results, given less than two hours after polling stations closed, were based on 9.1% of the ballot boxes counted. The head of Turkey's High Election Board earlier lifted a publication ban and said to wait until it announces official tentative results later. Pre-election polls had given the edge to Kilicdaroglu, who pledges to roll back much of Erdogan's two-decade legacy. Writing by Jonathan SpicerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Voting starts in Turkey elections
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

ISTANBUL, May 14 (Reuters) - Turks began voting on Sunday in one of the most consequential elections in modern Turkey's 100-year history, which will decide whether President Tayyip Erdogan extends his two decades in power. Presidential and parliamentary votes are being held, deciding not only who leads Turkey, a NATO-member country of 85 million, but also how it is governed and where its economy is headed amid a deep cost of living crisis. Opinion polls give Erdogan's main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who heads an alliance of six opposition parties, a slight lead, but if either fails to get more than 50% of the vote, there will be a runoff election on May 28. Reporting by Daren Butler; Editing by William MallardOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

[1/6] Mehmet Ali Fakioglu arrives by bus from Istanbul to Hatay to vote during Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections, in Hatay, Turkey May 14, 2023. But as he prepared to cast his ballot, he voiced criticism of the state's slow response to the disaster in which more than 50,000 people were killed. We were forgotten, all of us, on that day, the second day even on the third day. Critics and earthquake survivors have accused Erdogan's government of both a slow response and lax enforcement of building rules - failures they said cost lives. He said around 1.5 million people had left the quake zone, only a portion of whom had registered new addresses for the purpose of voting.

☆ Turkey's lira slides, credit default swaps spike after election
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

It was on track for its worst trading session since early November. The five-year Turkey credit default swap spread TRGV5YUSAC=MG jumped 105 basis points (bps) from Friday's levels to 597 bps, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, the highest since November 2022. Analysts expect the lira to slump in the wake of the elections following years of economic imbalances and unorthodox monetary policy. JPMorgan (JPM.N) forecast the lira could soften to levels of 24-25 to the dollar. The lira, which is prone to sharp swings before regular trading hours, has weakened 5% since the start of the year.

☆ Instant View: Turkey faces runoff election as Erdogan survives first test but remains at risk
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/3] Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan greets his supporters as he leaves his residence in Istanbul, Turkey May 14, 2023. I would expect a significant crash in the Istanbul stock exchange and lots of fluctuations in the currency. Both sides will try to make a case for themselves but Erdogan will be in an advantage in a second round. GALIP DALAY, ASSOCIATE FELLOW AT CHATHAM HOUSE"If the current numbers are confirmed by the Supreme Election Board, the governing coalition will go to the second round with numeric and psychological advantages. It has the majority in the parliament and Erdogan is poised to go to the second round with a lead over his rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu."

☆ Turkey's opposition sounds positive tone in landmark vote
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

ANKARA, May 14 (Reuters) - Turkey's opposition presidential candidate said on Sunday "we are leading" in initial election results in which President Tayyip Erdogan's 20-year rule was on the line, while opposition sources gave him a more than one percentage point lead. "We are leading," Kemal Kilicdaroglu of the six-party opposition alliance said on Twitter. Separately, four sources from the six-party opposition alliance told Reuters that Kilicdaroglu was leading Erdogan by a narrow margin according to initial results. They cautioned against relying on state-run Anadolu Agency results that gave Erdogan the initial edge. Earlier, Faik Oztrak, spokesman for Kilicdaroglu's Republican People's Party (CHP), said they were seeing a positive picture even as Anadolu showed Erdogan leading by 52% to 41% based on initial results.

☆ Turks vote in crunch election as President Erdogan faces greatest threat to his 20-year rule
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Supporters wave flags as Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan holds a rally ahead of the Presidential elections in Istanbul on May 12, 2023 in Istanbul, Turkey. Erdogan will face his biggest electoral test as voters head to the polls in the country's general election. For the presidency — which is expected to be close — if no candidate wins more than 50%, the vote goes to a run-off two weeks later. In a possibly game-changing development, one of the four presidential candidates, Muharrem Ince, pulled out of the race Thursday. A former CHP member, he had been under heavy criticism for splitting the opposition vote in a way that would hurt Kilicdaroglu's chances.

The son of a sea captain, Erdogan has faced stiff political headwinds ahead of Sunday's election: he was already facing blame over an economic crisis when a devastating earthquake hit in February. Critics accused his government of a slow response and lax enforcement of building rules, failures they said could have cost lives. Two days before the vote, Erdogan said he came to office through the ballot boxes and if he had to, would leave the same way. A veteran of more than a dozen election victories, the 69-year-old Erdogan has taken aim at his critics in typically combative fashion. "I swear, Erdogan can solve it with a flick of his wrist," she said at a market in central Istanbul.

☆ Turkey's lira sinks to two-month low in post-election trade
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, May 14 (Reuters) - Turkey's lira slipped to a fresh two-month low as financial markets kicked off trading in the wake of the country's Sunday presidential and parliamentary election with the race for presidency appearing headed for a runoff. The currency weakened to 19.70 to the dollar before retracing some of its losses to 19.66, on track for its worst session since early November. "It is hard to foresee a market-positive scenario emerging from today’s double vote in Turkey," Wolfgango Piccoli at Teneo wrote in a note to clients. Analysts expect the lira to face sharp adjustments in the wake of the elections following years of economic imbalances and unorthodox monetary policy. The lira, which is prone to sharp swings before regular trading hours, has weakened 5% since the start of the year.

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