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☆ How US allies can mitigate Trump 2.0
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

LONDON, May 29 (Reuters Breakingviews) - A return to the White House by Donald Trump would create challenges for the world’s other rich democracies. TRUMP IN POLYCRISISBiden has painstakingly created a consensus with his core allies since Putin invaded Ukraine last year. PREPARE FOR THE WORSTThe world’s other rich democracies - call them the G6 - cannot change the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. Politicians in other rich democracies can also try to persuade Republican leaders that now is not the time to abandon Kyiv. If other rich democracies adopt a vigorous mitigation strategy now, they’ll be better prepared if Trump does return.

☆ Aussie billionaires’ solar spat enters new phase
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MELBOURNE, May 29 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The battle between two of Australia’s richest men for control of bankrupt renewables startup Sun Cable has ended in a whimper. Surprisingly absent from the final bout was Squadron Energy, one of Fortescue Metals (FMG.AX) founder Andrew Forrest’s investment companies. Both were early investors in Sun Cable; their spat over its strategy plunged the firm into administration in January. Cannon-Brookes wants to stick to the original plan of sending most of the energy it produces to Singapore via an undersea cable. Now the race is on to see which of the two men is first to flick the on switch.

☆ China thesis lurches from one lazy extreme to next
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-25 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

HONG KONG, May 25 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Foreigners that once piled into offshore Chinese equities are evacuating as confidence in the country’s economic recovery sags. The China trade has always been unbalanced towards overseas-listed Chinese consumer and internet firms, and foreigners preferred building factories, acquiring large stakes in companies and the like over portfolio trading. Even at a peak in 2021, they held barely over 8 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) of yuan-denominated Chinese stocks and bonds, per official data, compared to $27 trillion of American equivalents. Now the former figure has fallen below 7 trillion yuan. Major Chinese indexes in Hong Kong and New York have also slid, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index having lost around 15% in the last three months.

☆ BYD and Great Wall feud portends potholes ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HONG KONG, May 25 (Reuters Breakingviews) - China’s Great Wall Motor (601633.SS) has made a rare public allegation that BYD’s (002594.SZ), (1211.HK) Qin Plus and Song Plus hybrid models do not meet emissions standards in the country. Thursday’s accusations sent BYD’s Hong Kong-listed shares down 5.4%, but the whistleblower’s own stock fell 7.3% by market close. BYD is currently the world’s best-selling electric-car marque per Bernstein, and it sold nearly 15,000 electric passenger cars outside China in the year to April. As for Great Wall, some 73,789 of its cars, representing nearly a quarter of its sales, were overseas in the same period. If the mud Great Wall slings ends up sticking, the global image of Chinese auto brands could get stained just as they expand into global markets.

☆ EU will go easy on Indian resale of Russian fuel
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-23 | by ( Shritama Bose | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Yet, the risk of an energy inflation resurgence makes a European Union ban on Russian oil reselling a tough call. The war in Ukraine has offered India an opportunity to boost purchases of discounted Russian oil. European imports of oil derivatives jumped to 200,000 barrels per day after the EU banned Russian crude products imports on Feb. 5 from 154,000 barrels previously, according to Kpler data. And New Delhi argues oil products substantially transformed in a third country cannot be subject to EU sanctions. loadingTo avoid an open clash with India, the EU could try to target European companies buying Russian-origin refined oil.

Tesla is proposing to manufacture and sell vehicles in the country, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing a source. Import duties of as much as 100% made it difficult to gauge demand, so Tesla lobbied to reduce tariffs, rather than producing locally. Committing to a factory could work for Musk too, though justifying a Tesla-sized facility calls for fast and furious sales. When Tesla set up a Gigafactory in China in 2019, its sheer scale meant supply chains sprang up to serve it. Senior Tesla executives are in India this week to meet the government to discuss local sourcing of parts and other issues, Reuters reported on May 16.

☆ Thailand’s election could be a lose-lose scenario
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( Anshuman Daga | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, May 12 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Thailand’s elections on Sunday might return opposition parties to power for the first time since 2014, or alternatively deliver a stitched-up military-backed government. Assuming one of these opposition parties wins, it will need to control 376 seats out of the combined 500-seat House of Representatives and the 250-seat Senate to choose a prime minister. Pheu Thai claims it can lift annual economic growth to around 5% so long as is in power, which would be nearly double 2022’s low base. Higher incomes might ease Thailand’s household debt, which at 87% of GDP is the third-highest in Asia. HSBC analysts expect revenue at major Thai corporations to grow by only 2% next year – again, well behind neighbours – and Pheu Thai is mulling a 20% tax on private company profits, per a report in the Bangkok Post.

☆ Private equity is being squeezed from all sides
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

But this time around there’s a lot more private equity money chasing a limited number of opportunities. So private equity funds could face the prospect of a prolonged period of higher borrowing costs, lower valuations, and depressed investment returns. The birth of private equity coincided with the Reagan administration’s policy of relaxing regulations and tax cuts. Recent high profile corporate bankruptcies owned by private equity include car-rental firm Hertz and retailer Toys R Us. The private equity industry could soon find itself caught in a pincer, between tighter financing on the one hand and tighter regulation on the other.

HONG KONG, May 3 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Chinese travellers are opening their suitcases again, but not their wallets. Domestic travel bookings during the holiday surged eightfold from a year earlier, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, according to online travel agency Trip.com (9961.HK). The return of Chinese holiday-goers should be a huge relief at home and abroad. Before the pandemic, domestic tourism contributed a whopping 11% of GDP and 10% of national employment, according to Fitch. The country's Big 3 carriers - Air China (601111.SS), China Southern (600029.SS), and China Eastern (600115.SS) - are grappling with high oil prices, a weak yuan and geopolitical tensions.

☆ Kirin investors find vitamin deal hard to swallow
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The $15 billion Japanese company is best known as a brewer, but sources more than half its top line from other businesses. Kirin, led by CEO Yoshinori Isozaki, also reckons the deal will be accretive to earnings per share in the first year. Yet investors immediately wiped some $450 million off the purchaser’s market value on Thursday, almost double the premium it agreed to pay Blackmores’ shareholders. Blackmores may yet show Kirin has adopted a better dealmaking regimen, but investors aren’t holding their breath. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Hong Kong bourse’s profit pop looks passive
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Thomas Shum | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

HONG KONG, April 27 (Reuters Breakingviews) - What does a stock exchange operator do when equity markets are weak and interest rates are high? Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (0388.HK) posted a 28% year-on-year profit pop on Wednesday, largely propelled by stellar investment returns as opposed to its core business. Sustained weakness in equities trading and initial public offerings could augur tougher times ahead if transaction volumes don’t come back soon. Though Hong Kong’s IPO pipeline is better than many, with over 90 applications as of the end of March, the issue sizes are restrained. Net profit amounted to HK$3.4 billion ($434 million), up 28% from a year ago, with revenue and other income rising 19% year-on-year to HK$5.56 billion.

HONG KONG, April 26 (Reuters Breakingviews) - If Japan is the next Macau, $16 billion MGM Resorts International (MGM.N) may be the only winner left at the table. After years of debate and delays, Japan has finally given approval for a resort in Osaka. But as diversifying from China becomes a popular mantra, this big bet looks smarter than it once did. The 1.08 trillion yen ($8.1 billion) resort is set to open in 2029. U.S. casino operator MGM Resorts International and local partner Orix will each own a 40% stake in the company set up to manage the complex.

☆ Exploring the City of London’s existential dread: podcast
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Peter Thal Larsen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON, April 25 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The global financial centre is suffering a spasm of anxiety about its status, while the government is pushing post-Brexit reforms. In this Exchange podcast William Wright, founder of the New Financial think tank, discusses the roots of the malaise and what can be done to fix it. Subscribe to Breakingviews’ podcasts, Viewsroom and The Exchange. Editing by Thomas Shum and Katrina HamlinOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

HONG KONG, April 14 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Macau, once the world’s largest gambling hub, is far from a sure bet. For MGM China (2282.HK) and Sands China (1928.HK), the highest is two-thirds more than the lowest, for example. Uncertainty is compounded by onerous obligations companies have to help Macau reduce its dependence on gaming. Take $16 billion MGM Resorts International (MGM.N), whose Japanese resort received a green light on Friday. There’s also $13 billion Wynn Resorts (WYNN.O), which is pushing into the fast-growing United Arab Emirates.

☆ China reluctantly keeps sanctions powder dry
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Yet most trade measures Xi has taken so far are best seen as defensive tactics to protect market share from aspirant rivals in the West and India. The easiest option is picking on America’s $120-billion-plus of direct investment stock in China. Of course, that is no way for China to revive the decaying quantity and quality of the investment it receives. Chinese officials consistently say they welcome U.S. trade and investment and there is no reason to doubt them. The move comes after the United States implemented multiple restrictions on sales of chipmaking tools and components to China.

☆ Buffet breaks out of Japan’s value trap
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HONG KONG, April 12 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa.N) has upped its stake in iconic Japanese trading houses, according to an interview boss Warren Buffett gave the Nikkei newspaper on Tuesday. Worries that the nonagenarian was walking into Japan’s infamous “value trap” now look overwrought. The rise in global interest rates and the popping of the tech bubble have pushed funds back into the boring nuts and bolts companies Buffett loves. Given that the trading houses are themselves Berkshire-like investors, Buffett says he is open to doing deals with them, and investing more in Japan. The hedge funds and activist investors who have been banging their heads against Japan Inc might watch what Buffett does next.

☆ Temasek hospital deal channels its Dr Resilience
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Anshuman Daga | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, April 11 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Temasek is picking a good time to focus on health. The sovereign investor is taking control of Indian hospital operator Manipal for $2 billion. Others are on an Indian health drive too. Follow @anshumandaga on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSSingapore’s Temasek will buy an additional 41% stake in Manipal Health Enterprises, the unlisted Indian hospital chain said on April 10. After the deal closes, the Pai family’s Manipal Group will hold about 30% of Manipal Health.

☆ Hong Kong sharpens fine art edge over Singapore
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Thomas Shum | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

HONG KONG, March 24 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Chinese collectors are piling into Hong Kong for Art Basel this week. As the financial hub jostles with rival Singapore, its vibrant art market could help it grab a bigger slice of Asia’s wealth management pie. The cream of that crop tends to go on the block in Hong Kong. Hong Kong is hardly out of the economic woods. But the chattering crowds at Art Basel should remind investors that the city retains a profitable artistic edge.

HONG KONG, March 22 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Time may be on Richard Li’s side. By cobbling together acquisitions, Li has built a brand to sell life insurance across Hong Kong, Japan and Southeast Asia. The value of new business – a measure of the present value of future earnings from policies signed - rose around 30%. Follow @KatrinaHamlin on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSAsian insurer FWD has made a fresh application for a Hong Kong listing, according to stock exchange filings published on March 13. A first attempt to go public in Hong Kong in 2021 was refused owing to concern over its dual-class shares.

☆ UBS salvages most value from Credit Suisse wreck
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-19 | by ( Liam Proud | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Meanwhile the government will cover up to 9 billion Swiss francs of losses, such as markdowns on Credit Suisse assets, past a certain threshold. A UBS takeover is preferable to the Swiss government nationalising Credit Suisse or winding it down. Follow @liamwardproud on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSUBS will rescue Credit Suisse in a deal worth about 3 billion Swiss francs, Swiss authorities and the two banks said on March 19. Shareholders in Credit Suisse will get one new UBS share for every 22.48 shares they currently hold. Based on UBS’s closing price on March 17 the offer values Credit Suisse shares at 0.76 Swiss francs each, well below the last closing price of 1.86 Swiss francs.

Now overseas demand is slumping amidst a local credit crunch and a corruption crackdown. A trade agreement and warmer relations with Washington spared its manufacturers from tariffs and sanctions applied to its northern neighbour. Now overseas demand is stuttering. Vietnam's exports of goods and services have been slowingFollow @KatrinaHamlin on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSVietnam's economy grew 8.02% in 2022, the fastest annual pace since 1997, according to data released by the country’s General Statistics Office on Dec. 29. Vietnamese exports were flat in February and fell 23.4% in January compared to a year earlier, according to Refinitiv data released on March 9.

☆ CATL’s battery ram is losing power
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HONG KONG, March 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Chinese battery maker Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750.SZ) posted earnings growth of 61% for the quarter ended December on Thursday. The company led by Robin Zeng boasts unrivalled economies of scale, allowing it to drive down costs for clients including Tesla (TSLA.O). Alas, in China, which accounts for four fifths of CATL’s top line, such dominance is drawing unwanted attention. On Monday, during a meeting between Zeng and Chinese President Xi Jinping, the Party leader expressed mixed feelings about CATL’s 37% global market share. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Cathay’s people problem is Hong Kong’s too
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Thomas Shum | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

HONG KONG, March 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Cathay Pacific (0293.HK) may be a high-flying reminder of the Asian finance hub’s pandemic-induced isolation for longer than anyone wants. It promises a swift reversal on a HK$6.5 billion ($834 million) net loss for 2022 Cathay reported on Wednesday. The company has close to 2,405 pilots, roughly 63% of pre-pandemic numbers, according to a survey conducted in March by the Hong Kong Aircrew Officers Association and seen by Breakingviews. That makes Cathay’s people problem Hong Kong’s too. Cathay Pacific carried 1.03 million passengers in January 2023, up from 24,699 last year.

HONG KONG, March 9 (Reuters Breakingviews) - European financial centres are rolling out the red carpet for Chinese companies. Its free-float market capitalisation of $1.9 trillion is just a tenth of the New York Stock Exchange, January data from the World Federation of Exchanges show. Yet as tensions between Washington and Beijing rise and Chinese companies in New York face the threat of delisting, traditionally neutral Zurich has become an attractive alternative. That removes the risk that overseas regulators will demand access to mainland companies’ books - the source of a lengthy spat between the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board and Beijing. Deutsche Börse (DB1Gn.DE), which operates Frankfurt’s stock exchange, is technically ready to launch the China-Germany Stock Connect, board representative Niels Tomm said in November.

☆ China’s unambitious goals reflect growing worries: podcast
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Aimee Donnellan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON, March 9 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The People’s Republic is hoping to deliver 5% GDP growth this year and is creating a new finance watchdog. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how jitters in real estate could hamper a recovery and how regulatory changes could create bigger problems. Listen to the podcastFollow @aimeedonnellan on TwitterSubscribe to Breakingviews' podcasts, Viewsroom and The Exchange. Editing by Peter Thal Larsen and Katrina HamlinOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

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