DIRS.INFO The most relevant business & tech news

Most-active CBOT soybean futures shed 3.6% through May 16, and funds added gross shorts for a sixth consecutive week. That could mean money managers at Friday's close were net short soybean futures and options for the first time since April 2020. They have not held a net short for two or more consecutive weeks since March 2020. Money managers' all-time soybean net short of 168,835 futures and options contracts was set on May 14, 2019. CBOT wheat futures had been rallying mid-month due to uncertainty over the Black Sea grain deal, though Russia on Wednesday agreed to a two-month extension, allowing Ukraine to continue exports by sea.

The Kansas wheat tour and its findings always prompt these questions: How does the tour yield compare with USDA’s May forecast? Since 2005 and including 2023, USDA’s May estimate for Kansas winter wheat yield was lower than the tour yield in all but three years: 2010, 2018 and 2019. USDA's May Kansas wheat yield vs tour yieldBefore 2021, the tour was always held before USDA’s May report, but it now takes place after. Compared with final Kansas winter wheat yields, the tour yields have been streaky. Kansas winter wheat yield: tour versus finalFinal Kansas wheat yield has come in higher than USDA’s May forecast in 11 of the last 15 years.

NAPERVILLE, Illinois, May 17 (Reuters) - Chicago December corn futures on Wednesday traded below $5 per bushel for the first time since 2021, supportive for those who believe new-crop corn has already inked its yearly high. The average price of December corn during February, which represents the insurance guarantee to U.S. corn farmers, is not too impactful for the futures market itself. New-crop corn is already breaking the ranks in terms of downward momentum. Almost three-quarters of the years featured higher new-crop corn prices versus February at some point from July 1, and that happened beyond Oct. 1 half the time. But 2013, which has been compared with 2023 for corn, featured one of the narrowest-ever margins.

Plenty of uncertainty around global wheat production and trade remains, especially in the Black Sea, since 2023-24 grain crops are far from settled. Wheat SU among major exporters in May 2022 was pegged at a 15-year low of 13.5% for 2022-23, expanding to 13.75% by February 2023. This SU trend in major wheat exporting countries is not exclusive to 2022-23. USDA has 2023-24 Ukraine wheat production at 16.5 million tonnes with exports at 10 million, down from 20.9 million and 15 million in 2022-23, respectively. OTHER HOTSPOTSIn top exporter Russia, USDA shows 2023-24 wheat production down 11% from last year's record, though exports are seen edging up 2% to a new high.

Crop Watch farmers have mostly wrapped up their planting except for in North Dakota, where recent rains have already reduced the producers’ corn acreage plans. The North Dakota producer, located in the east central part of the state, has not yet started field work. This issue does not extend throughout the whole state, but the Crop Watch producer estimates roughly half the state faces his same situation. The North Dakota producer needs several sunny and windy days to prepare the fields, which could be in store. Crop Watch planting dates May 15Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters.

But 29% of U.S. corn areas and 21% of soybean areas are in a drought versus 21% and 12% a year ago, respectively. Some 48% of winter wheat areas are experiencing drought versus 68% a year ago, but 16% of it is currently under exceptional drought versus just 3% a year ago. That is despite decent conditions in soft red wheat states in the east. The Drought Monitor shows 64% of Kansas in extreme or worse drought this week, topped only by a stretch from July 2012 to March 2013 in records back to 2000. The latest Drought Monitor stats in the top corn state are almost identical to the same point in 2021, leading into Iowa’s record corn-yielding season.

New-crop soybeans last printed a January high in 1999, one of three such instances in the last half-century. The last time new-crop corn and soybeans both made their year-of-expiration highs in January was in 1985, though on different days. In the last two decades, June and November have been the most common months for new-crop soybeans’ high, at five apiece. In a highly unusual twist, soybeans also made their yearly low in August 2013.CBOT November soybeans: month of highSOYBEANS VERSUS CORN? However, that phenomenon has not yet been seen for Brazil’s upcoming bumper corn harvest, which will be collected most heavily during June and July.

Crop Watch farmers last week continued planting their corn and soybeans at a faster-than-normal pace, mirroring national progress, though field work has barely started in North Dakota. As of Monday, 15 of the 22 Crop Watch fields had been planted, most recently the ones in eastern Iowa, finished Thursday and Friday. Unplanted soybean fields include those in Kansas, Minnesota, South Dakota, North Dakota and Ohio. Crop Watch planting is moving slower than in 2021, when 19 of the 22 fields had been planted by May 7. The final two fields, Ohio corn and North Dakota soybeans, wrapped up on May 18 that year.

CBOT December corn futures’ high so far in 2023 was printed Jan. 3, the first trading day of the year. New-crop corn made May highs in 2021 and 2022, and it made April highs twice, most recently in 2014.CBOT December corn months of highsSAME SETUP? New-crop corn futures bounced in early May 2013 on slow U.S. corn planting, but a new low was eventually set later that month. December corn futures in 2014 lost 38% between the April high and October low, more than the 32% decline in 2013. Money managers' net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsFOOD FOR THOUGHTExceptionally bearish quarterly stock reports in March and September plagued corn futures in 2013, but while the market was likely misjudging U.S. corn demand, so was the Department of Agriculture.

Since then, the combined net long hit an all-time high near 840,000 futures and options contracts in April 2022. In the July contracts, soybeans and soymeal fell 5%, corn and soyoil shed around 6% and CBOT wheat plunged 8%. The only period in which funds were more bearish toward CBOT wheat was between July 2016 and January 2018. ADDITIONAL PRESSUREThe downturn continued for corn and wheat futures between Wednesday and Friday, likely increasing bears’ recent momentum in the grains. Most-active CBOT wheat fell nearly 3% over the last three sessions and featured a dip on Friday to the lowest levels since July 2021.

The last two times U.S. corn exports were lower than the 2022-23 expectations were 2019-20 (36.1 million tonnes or 1.78 billion bushels) and 2012-13 (16.5 million tonnes or 730 million bushels). CHINA BOWING OUTOn Thursday, USDA confirmed the week's second cancellation of U.S. corn sales to China, bringing the total to 560,000 tonnes (22 million bushels). As of April 20, China had 8.6 million tonnes of U.S. corn on the books for 2022-23 delivery, and 3.7 million still awaited shipment. Outstanding corn sales to China are comprised mostly of new purchases since March, implying those are among the ones now being cancelled. China only began accepting Brazilian corn shipments at the end of last year, though Japan frequently imports several million tonnes.

As of Wednesday, CBOT soy futures had closed lower for six consecutive sessions, losing a total of 5%. Most-active CBOT soybean futuresHistorically low port premiums for Brazilian soybeans have weighed heavily on prices since they suggest supplies are currently outpacing demand. Within the last few days, CBOT soybean futures began trading at the lowest levels for the date in three years, something that was last applicable in 2020. Brazilian agency Conab sees Brazil’s total corn crop near a record 125 million tonnes versus last year’s high of 113 million. Brazil’s second corn crop is seen topping 95 million tonnes this year, a mark the country’s total corn crop first achieved in 2016-17.

Traders seem more focused on the grain deal’s recent success than the risk to Ukrainian exports should Russia cease to cooperate. As of Monday, Ukraine’s 2022-23 grain exports were down about 11% from the same date last year compared with margins of 18% in late March and 27% in late February. According to USDA data, Ukrainian corn exports in 2022-23 will represent 94% of the year’s corn harvest. The inflow of cheap Ukrainian grain has driven down prices in European neighbors, angering farmers and leading some countries to propose bans on Ukrainian goods. The EU last week proposed compensation packages for farmers as well as restrictions on Ukrainian grain imports.

In the week ended April 18, money managers increased their net long position in CBOT corn futures and options to 49,434 contracts from 27,112 a week earlier, marking their most bullish corn view since Feb. 28. Funds have been net corn buyers for five consecutive weeks for the first time since September. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsBut some of those longs may have already been scrapped in the last three sessions, as CBOT corn futures fell 4.5% in the July contract and 4% in the December. Money managers trimmed their net short to 102,983 futures and options contracts from 104,247 a week earlier. That is their most bearish CBOT wheat view for the time of year since 2017.

NAPERVILLE, Illinois, April 19 (Reuters) - U.S. corn yield possibilities for this summer are still wide open, though industry participants might disagree over what represents a “normal” yield due to some recent trends. This question was discussed during USDA’s data users’ meeting on Tuesday, where the agency’s unofficial 2023 U.S. corn trend yield of 181.5 bushels per acre was challenged as potentially too high. Setting state yields at a straight five-year average produces 173.0 bpa, and an Olympic five-year average, dropping high and low, yields 174.5. However, most analysts probably support a national corn trend higher than these numbers, which are in the vicinity of what USDA was using for trend in 2018. U.S. corn yield: trend versus finalKaren Braun is a market analyst for Reuters.

Crop Watch follows 11 corn and 11 soybean fields across nine U.S. states, including two each in Iowa and Illinois. As of Tuesday, four Crop Watch fields had been planted and a fifth, the Indiana soybeans, was in progress. Since 1980, U.S. corn planting progress has matched or exceeded 10% by April 16 only five times, most recently in 2016. Some notable corn planting progress by state as of Sunday include Illinois at 10%, Iowa 7%, Kansas 17% and Missouri 30%. The five-year average corn planting is 11% for April 23 and 26% for April 30.

Managed money net position in Chicago wheat futures and optionsMost-active CBOT wheat futures had shed 2.5% in the period. They also reduced their net long in Minneapolis wheat to 245 futures and options contracts from 694 a week earlier. wheat rose 1.2% and CBOT wheat gained 1.3%. CBOT wheat has also displayed considerable weakness versus CBOT corn, as front-month wheat’s advantage to corn slipped below 15 cents per bushel Thursday, the lowest since July 2021 and below long-term averages. The record net long is 154,550 contracts set in April 2019, and it is very rare for funds to be short cattle.

However, strong suppressive trade winds have not yet allowed this warmth to disperse across the ocean and allow El Nino to gain its footing. The most recent two weeks where the anomaly was as warm or warmer were in July 2015, preceding the 2015-16 El Nino event, and in June 1998, coming off the 1997-98 event. A few forecasters see a possible Super El Nino in 2023. The timing of El Nino is most immediately pressing in the Southern Hemisphere, which begins planting wheat next month. Argentina, often wet during El Nino, is wrapping up a catastrophic crop year due to severe drought.

It is still early to get a clear picture on spring planting weather, though May is the most active month for field work, emphasizing favorable weather starting in late April. U.S. corn planting progressSoybean planting in North Dakota was also the slowest ever last year, but the national pace was only a bit behind average. The five-year April 30 average for soybean planting is 11%, close to the 10-year average of 9%. That could become important later if planting issues arise for North Dakota, which accounts for half of the spring wheat crop. Nationally, farmers plan to sow the smallest spring wheat area in 51 years, down 2% from last year.

However, the trade’s recent track record with March corn acres suggests the possibility of a big miss on corn should stay on the table. On average, analysts peg 2023 U.S. corn plantings at 90.88 million acres and soybeans at 88.24 million acres, up 2.6% and 0.9%, respectively, from last year. The five-year average range is 4.5 million acres, including 6.2 million last year and 5.5 million in 2021. USDA’s Outlook Forum last month tentatively pegged 2023 U.S. corn and soy acres at 91 million and 87.5 million, respectively, combining for 178.5 million. USDA’s wheat area would be a seven-year high and up more than 8% from last year, the biggest year-on-year rise in wheat plantings since 1996.

In the week ended March 21, money managers reduced their net long position in CBOT soybean futures and options to 110,786 contracts from 127,661 a week earlier. In the week ended March 21, most-active CBOT soybean futures fell 1.8%, new-crop November soybeans shed 3.2%, soymeal lost 4.3% but soyoil added 0.1%. GRAINSMoney managers were modest buyers of CBOT corn futures and options in the week ended March 21 after selling nearly 300,000 contracts over the previous four weeks. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsIn CBOT wheat, money managers cut their net short for a second consecutive week, to 86,500 futures and options contracts from 95,257 a week earlier. In the week ended March 21, most-active CBOT corn futures rose 1.5% but CBOT wheat fell 1.9%.

The recent losses are far from records by magnitude, though the selling is the most extreme for new-crop beans in March since 2008. Over 28 sessions between April and May 2019, new-crop beans were lower in 22, a 79% losing rate. New-crop beans had been down in both June 2021 and July 2022 by around 13% within a 13-session span. The last comparable time was mid-March 2020, when RSI on new-crop beans remained below 17 for three consecutive sessions. CBOT November soybean futures with RSIKaren Braun is a market analyst for Reuters.

Most-active CBOT soybeans on Wednesday fell to their lowest level since early December, ending nearly 6% off this month’s high. Money managers’ biggest weekly dumping of CBOT soy futures and options was about 61,400 contracts in November 2019, requiring double the weekly record for funds to be flat by the next report. Net selling in corn recently blew out a weekly record at more than 147,000 contracts in the last week of February, well past the prior high near 104,000. Despite catastrophic crop problems in Argentina, Brazil’s enormous harvest and equally enormous export program have recently weighed on the soybean market. However, the potential size of the 2023 U.S. soybean crop remains up for debate with farmers’ planting plans not yet known.

Most-active CBOT futures contracts all traded lower in the week ended March 14, and losses are as follows: corn 2.1%, soybeans 1.4%, wheat 0.3%, soymeal 1.4% and soyoil 4.2%. Corn and soyoil notched multi-month lows during the week and wheat dropped to its lowest level in a year-and-a-half. Money managers were net sellers of more than 75,000 CBOT corn futures and options contracts in the week ended March 14, establishing a net short of 54,134 contracts, their first bearish stance since August 2020. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsMoney managers also flipped to a net short in CBOT soybean oil as of March 14, their first since June 2020. In the week ended March 21, which represents the next set of CoT data, most-active CBOT corn futures rose 1.5% and soyoil added 0.1%.

However, they pushed their bullish soybean meal bets to a new record and bought a respectable amount of beans, though investors’ pessimism toward CBOT wheat increased even further. They also reduced their net long in CBOT soybean oil to 20,526 futures and options contracts from 28,093 in the prior week. Through March 7, money managers increased their net short in CBOT wheat futures and options by nearly 9,000 contracts to 100,636 contracts, their most bearish since January 2018. They also sold more than 3,500 Minneapolis wheat contracts through March 7, flipping to a net short of 3,029. Between March 7 and March 16, most-active CBOT futures traded as follows: corn -0.2%, soybeans -1.6%, wheat +0.1%, meal -2.8%, soyoil -1.6%.

Search resuls for: "Karen Braun"

25 mentions found