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☆ Reluctant to chase the rally? How to bet on a year-end pop with options
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) Index , which closed Friday at 12.63 is currently approaching 5-year lows. It is calculated from the prices of S & P 500 index options. Investors can speculate in VIX futures or VIX futures options, but understanding the futures "term structure" (how the prices of various futures of different expiration relate to each other) isn't that straightforward. Consider the following chart of the Barclays iPath S & P 500 (VXX) , an exchange traded note which is intended to track the S & P 500 short-term VIX futures total return index vs. the VIX Index itself. If one is inclined to make a bullish bet, but is reluctant to get caught "chasing" after the market has already rallied sharply, perhaps we can take advantage of the fact options prices are well below average.

Persons: VXX Organizations: Barclays iPath, Broadcom, Dollar Locations: New York City, VXX, SPDR

☆ Here’s what the S&P 500’s summer hot streak can teach us about the late 2023 rally and its staying power
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-02 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

In the final run-up to the late-July peak in stocks this column surveyed the rally , and asked, "Enough for now? .SPX YTD line The S & P 500's year-to-date performance Yes, the market is overbought by various technical measures. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo and Barclays are seeing the S & P 500 as dead money next year, at best. The virtues of owning the S & P 500 passively have always been low cost, tax efficiency, low turnover and broad exposure to the asset class. While 2021 was a Nasdaq 100 melt-up year, 2022 was the mirror image: Big Tech got blasted and the equal-weight S & P 500 held up better.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells, Jack Bogle, Alan Greenspan's Organizations: Federal, Deutsche, Deutsche Bank and Bank of America, Barclays, Hamas, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Meta, Apple, Microsoft, Big Tech, matchless, Treasury Locations: Wells Fargo, Israel

China's imports are being driven by increased arrivals from Indonesia, the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, with Kpler estimating 18.03 million metric tons will arrive this month. This is up from imports from Indonesia of 16.70 million metric tons in October, according to Kpler data. Imports from Indonesia are expected to decline to 10.92 million metric tons in November from 12.19 million in October. Thermal coal arrivals from Australia are forecast to be 1.11 million metric tons in November, up slightly from the 1.02 million in October. Overall, its possible that China's increased appetite for imported thermal coal ahead of the northern winter is crowding out some demand in India, which tends to be a more price-sensitive buyer.

Persons: Stephen Coates Organizations: Argus, CHINA, Atlantic, Indonesian, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, Indonesia, China, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Beijing, Canberra, South Africa, Asia, Europe

☆ Renters are getting more perks as increased construction adds to housing market supply
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Zillow said 30% of rental listings offer some sort of concession to prospective renters. AdvertisementMore rental listings are offering sweetened deals, as an influx in freshly constructed properties gives prospective tenants more options. Zillow said 30% of rental listings now offer at least one concession, up from 24% a year ago. Construction activity has continued through October, with 408,000 multi-family units added, according to new Census Bureau data on Friday. Multifamily units under construction in October were only down 1% from July's record high, and up by half from late 2019.

Persons: Zillow, —, Bill Adams Organizations: Service, Comerica Bank Locations: Phoenix, Atlanta

☆ UK economy flatlines as finance minister decries inflation drag
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The U.K. economy flatlined in the third quarter, initial figures showed Friday. Services sector output dropped 0.1% on the quarter, but the decline was offset by a 0.1% increase in construction performance, while the production sector flatlined. U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt said high inflation remains the "single greatest barrier to economic growth" in the country, with the consumer price index remaining at 6.7% year-on-year in September. While somehow avoiding a recession this year, today's no growth reading means the UK economy is flatlining with only 0.2% economic growth in the last six months." As the Bank of England stated earlier this month that more than half of the impact of higher interest rates on the level of GDP is still to come through, the U.K. economy faces growing headwinds as we approach 2024."

Persons: Jeremy Hunt, Hunt, Lindsay James Organizations: Gross, Services, Chancellor, Quilter Investors, Bank of England Locations: Canary, London, U.K

NEW YORK (AP) — Two-way star Shohei Ohtani was among seven players who received $20,325,000 qualifying offers from their former teams Monday as the free agent market opened for 168 players. In a sign of the relative weakness of the free agent class, half as many players received qualifying offers as last year. Qualifying offers began after the 2012 season, and 10 of 124 offers have been accepted. The Braves declined options on outfielder Eddie Rosario ($9 million) and right-handers Collin McHugh ($6 million) and Kirby Yates ($5.75 million). Miami declined options on right-handers Johnny Cueto ($10.5 million) and Matt Barnes ($9 million).

Persons: Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Josh Hader, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Matt Chapman, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery, Snell, Gray, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Milwaukee's Colin Rea, Charlie Morton, Eddie Rosario, Collin McHugh, Kirby Yates, Rosario, Yates, Mark Canha’s, Blake Holub, Michael Wacha, Johnny Cueto, Matt Barnes, Cueto, Barnes, Alex Cobb, Brooks Raley, Blake Treinen, Javier Báez, Michael Conforto, Ross Stripling, Josh Bell, Drew Smyly, Báez, Conforto, Bell, Stripling, Adam Ottavino, ___ Organizations: Los Angeles Angels, Chicago Cubs, Qualifying, Braves, Milwaukee Brewers, San, Miami, Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, Tigers, Giants, Cubs, Detroit, Cleveland, Marlins Locations: San Diego, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Toronto, Nola, Atlanta, Detroit, Blake Holub . Milwaukee, San Francisco, Miami

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a meeting of the Economic Club of New York in New York City, U.S., October 19, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 2 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The MSCI World equity index rose just over 1%, its best day since August while the Nasdaq jumped 1.6%, its fourth rise in a row, for its best day since August too. Malaysia's central bank is expected to keep its key interest rate at 3% and through 2024, despite a weakening ringgit, amid stable domestic inflation and a steady growth outlook. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Jamie McGeever, Wall, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Evergrande, Josie Kao Organizations: Economic, of New, REUTERS, Treasury, Bank of, Nikkei, Nasdaq, South, South Korea CPI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, Malaysian, Asia, Hong Kong, South Korea, July's, Malaysia, Australia

☆ Here’s how Taylor Swift, consumer spending and this puzzling labor market fit together
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Karen Firestone | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

On several occasions, I would walk into Macy's and buy a tube of lipstick, which was something I found comforting. Considering that every lipstick I own, which is not a small number, is basically the same color, I also found that strange. For instance, rather than purchasing a new $400 dress, they might choose to buy a $35 tube of Lancôme lipstick. Let's look at the top-grossing concert tours in the U.S. this year. Taylor Swift, Beyoncé, and Ed Sheeran have collectively sold $1.48 billion in ticket sales through August 2023, or $2.22 billion on an annualized basis, according to estimates from Forbes .

Persons: Taylor Swift, Ed Sheeran, Elton John, Jessica Reif Ehrlich, Karen Firestone Organizations: Forbes, Bank of America, U.S . Census, National Association of Realtors, Asset Management Locations: Boston, U.S, Pollster

☆ Bank of Canada leaves rates on hold, sees weak growth and stubborn inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Governor of the Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem walks outside the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada June 22, 2020. The bank increased rates 10 times between March 2022 and this July, with inflation peaking at more than 8% last year. Inflation in September dipped to 3.8% from 4.0% in August, and the central bank said it would average 3.5% through mid-2024. "There is growing evidence that past interest rate increases are dampening economic activity and relieving price pressures," the Bank of Canada (BoC) said in a statement. In July, the BoC forecast third-quarter annualized growth of 1.5%.

Persons: Blair Gable, Steve Scherer, David Ljunggren OTTAWA, David Ljunggren Organizations: Bank of Canada, REUTERS, Wednesday, BoC, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ottawa , Ontario, Canada, Israel, Gaza, Reuters Ottawa

☆ Barclays narrowly beats profit forecasts on strong consumer, credit card business
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON — Barclays on Tuesday reported a net profit of £1.27 billion ($1.56 billion) for the third quarter, slightly ahead of expectations as strong results in its consumer and credit card businesses compensated for weakening investment bank revenues. Venkatakrishnan said the bank "continued to manage credit well, remained disciplined on costs and maintained a strong capital position" against a "mixed market backdrop." Barclays' corporate and investment bank (CIB) saw income decrease by 6% to £3.1 billion, with the bank citing reduced client activity in global markets and investment banking fees. The bank did not announce any new returns of capital to shareholders after July's £750 million share buyback announcement. The cost-income ratio in the third quarter was 63%, but the bank has set a medium-term target of below 60%.

Persons: Venkatakrishnan Organizations: LONDON, Barclays, Reuters, C.S, Barclays U.K, Q423 Locations: London

☆ 'Sticky' inflation is still high but that is a good sign for the health of the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( Cork Gaines | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . As interest rates skyrocketed over the last 18 months, inflation fell from a 40-year high during the summer of 2022. Laoshi/Getty ImagesMcCulley echoed this when asked if strong retail sales are sign that the economy is not coming in for a soft landing. In the short term, further declines in inflation could be difficult if people are spending money they saved during the pandemic. Strong consumer spending is a good sign, but the economy is not out of the woods yet.

Persons: it's, —, Daniel Greenhaus, Greenhaus, Paul McCulley, McCulley, Tim Quinlan, Quinlan, Laoshi, didn't, Tom Barkin, ZIlloq, Paul Bradbury, Patrick Harker, Harker Organizations: Service, payrolls, Georgetown's School of Business, Wells, Richmond, Getty Images, Fed Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ Inflation held steady in September as housing and gas prices keep going up
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

That's the same as the year-over-year increase of 3.7% in August. Core CPI increased 4.1% from September 2022 to September this year. AdvertisementAdvertisementInflation is still elevated and held steady in September, based on Consumer Price Index or CPI data out Thursday. The year-over-year increase in this index had been falling, based on data before Thursday's data release. AdvertisementAdvertisementCore CPI index increased 0.3% from August to September.

Persons: —, Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter, Pollak, Price, Gregory Daco Organizations: Service, Consumer, Index, CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, payrolls

Official data showed economic output expanded by 0.2% in August from July, matching the median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists. "The UK economy is holding up but remains in a precarious state," said David Bharier, head of research at the British Chambers of Commerce. The data showed Britain's huge services sector grew by a slightly stronger than expected 0.4% in August from July while manufacturing and construction shrank by 0.8% and 0.5%. Investors are putting a chance of less than one in four on the BoE resuming its rate hikes after its next scheduled meeting in November. Britain's economy stood 2.1% bigger than in February 2020, just before the coronavirus pandemic hit, the ONS said.

Persons: Matthew Childs, Sterling, Elizabeth's, BoE, David Bharier, William Schomberg, Andy Bruce, Kate Holton Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of England, Monetary Fund, Chambers of Commerce, European Union, ONS, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, Miral

☆ UK economy grew 0.2% in August, propped up by services sector
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.K. gross domestic product grew by 0.2% in August, the Office for National Statistics estimated Thursday, partially recovering from a downwardly revised 0.6% contraction in July. "It does not change the outlook for the Bank of England and confirms that the Bank Rate does not have much upside from here, but will remain at current levels for an extended period." The Bank of England last month ended a run of 14 consecutive interest rate hikes after data showed inflation was running below expectations. "The UK has grown faster than France and Germany since the pandemic and today's data shows the economy is more resilient than expected," U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt said Thursday. U.K. headline inflation dipped to an annual 6.7% in August, below expectations but still well above the Bank's 2% target.

Persons: Mathieu Savary, Jeremy Hunt, Thiru Organizations: Citibank, HSBC, National Statistics, BCA Research, Bank of England, of England, Bank, Finance, Institute of Chartered Accountants, Wales, Bank of England's Locations: Wharf, London, United Kingdom, U.K, European, France, Germany, England

☆ The Fed's own economists are predicting a Goldilocks scenario: No recession, falling inflation, and flat unemployment
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Federal Reserve's economists are predicting a so-called Goldilocks scenario, Fed minutes show. They expect growth, flat unemployment, and inflation to fall to around 2% between 2024 and 2026. Fed staff don't anticipate a recession after raising it as a distinct possibility earlier this year. The latest minutes don't even mention recession, whereas the staff warned that was a distinct possibility back in February. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe latest minutes may also reassure investors.

Persons: —, There's Organizations: Federal, Fed, Service, Staff Locations: Israel

However, the fall Prime event might have better prices for home goods. In fact, the best prices happened on days that were not key shopping event days. Regardless, the July Prime event offered a deeper discount to shoppers when compared to last year's October Prime sale and Super Saturday. The product did go on sale during last October's Prime member event and this past July's Prime sale, but the discounts were not as deep. Downloads of Amazon's shopping app have declined steadily during each subsequent Prime member shopping event since Amazon's Prime Days in July 2021, according to data intelligence platform Apptopia, which tracks mobile app usage for brands like Amazon.

Persons: Tom Williams, Nick Handrinos, Julie Ramhold, it's, Ramhold, iRobot's, Keurig, AF101, fryer, The Bissell Organizations: Washington , D.C, Cq, Inc, Getty, Adobe, Amazon Prime, Gallup, Finance, Deloitte, CNBC, Electronics, Deal, CoreSight Research, NBC, Scout, Amazon, Sony, Black, Health, Revlon, Philips, July's Locations: Washington ,, Research's U.S

WASHINGTON (AP) — The United States on Tuesday formally declared the ousting of Niger's democratically-elected president a coup d'etat, more than two months after mutinous soldiers seized power. The coup designation comes with the suspension of counterterrorism assistance and military training as well as the pausing of certain foreign assistance programs worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Under U.S. law, a formal determination of a coup — the unconstitutional overthrow of a democratically elected government — typically results in a suspension of all non-humanitarian assistance, particularly military aid and cooperation, to the country concerned. The bases are a critical part of America’s overall efforts in West Africa and Niger, hosting more than 1,000 troops in the country. While a sizeable footprint remains in the country, those troops are not conducting either partnered training or counterterrorism missions, administration officials said, raising questions as to why they were staying.

Persons: Niger's, it’s, we’ve, they've, ”, Niger Kathleen FitzGibbon, Mohamed Bazoum who’s, Bazoum, —, Biden, Peter Pham, ___ Mednick Organizations: WASHINGTON, National Council for, U.S, Islamic, Atlantic Council Locations: United States, U.S, West African, Ambassador, Niger, Sahel, Burkina Faso, Mali, West Africa, Niamey, Agadez, West Africa’s, Cotonou, Benin

Funds' net short position in two-year futures is now a record 1.278 million contracts. A short position is essentially a wager an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. STERLING FLIPIn currencies, meanwhile, funds ramped up their broad, net long dollar position by $5.4 billion in the week to $8.45 billion. At around 114,000 contracts, it is now close to July's 118,000, which was the biggest net short position since February 2018. The CFTC data also showed that funds flipped to a net short sterling position for the first time since April.

Persons: STERLING, Jamie McGeever, Lincoln Organizations: Futures Trading Commission, Bank of, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, Bank of Japan

☆ Job growth surged in September
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Madison Hoff | Juliana Kaplan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The US added 336,000 jobs in September, greater than job growth in August. "It is a sign of stability, steady growth, and we are committed to making sure that all Americans share in the growth and prosperity." Leisure and hospitality saw robust job growth in September, with a gain of 96,000. Government employment soared by 73,000, with bigger gains in local and state government roles compared to the job growth for the federal government. After an increase in the unemployment rate in August as more people entered the labor force, the unemployment rate was 3.8% again in September.

Persons: —, Labor Julie Su, Nick Bunker, Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter, Bunker, Daniel Zhao, Karin Kimbrough, Kimbrough, there's Organizations: Workers, Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, of Labor, Labor, North America, Leisure

☆ From Amazon to Target, here's a look at some of the biggest holiday sales happening now
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Jessica Dickler | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Here's a look at some of biggest sales events happening now. This year, other big-name retailers are getting a head start by launching their own holiday sales earlier than ever, according to Katie Roberts, consumer analyst with DealNews.com . You can set up deal alert notifications on Amazon or through your Alexa device so you'll know when the price changes. Prime members can also sign up for invite-only deals on the items that typically sell out fast. But first, you must be an Amazon Prime member.

Persons: Katie Roberts, Andrea Woroch, fryer, Dyson, Barbie Organizations: DealNews.com, Black, Amazon, Sony, Bose, Philips, Finance, July's, Hasbro Locations: iRobot

☆ CNBC Daily Open: High rates are breaking something new in markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on July 18, 2023 in New York City. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. House Speaker, mutedEight hardline conservative Republicans joined all Democrats to oust Republican Kevin McCarthy as speaker in a "motion to vacate" introduced by Republican Matt Gaetz. Patrick McHenry, a close McCarthy ally, will assume the role of speaker temporarily; McCarthy said he won't be running again.

Persons: Kospi, CBRE, Knight Frank, Republican Kevin McCarthy, Matt Gaetz, Patrick McHenry, McCarthy Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Dow Jones, Treasury, Nikkei, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Japan's, U.S, Republicans, Democrats, Republican, Citi Locations: New York City, Asia, Pacific, Canada

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Something else is breaking in markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during opening bell in New York City on August 21, 2023. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. [PRO] Railed by ratesHigher-for-longer interest rates are really starting to hit markets hard. It's very broad swaths of the stock and bond markets that are seeing new 52-week lows, as CNBC Pro's Bob Pisani observes — and explains why they've been hitting troughs.

Persons: Dow, Republican Kevin McCarthy, Matt Gaetz, Patrick McHenry, McCarthy, Bob Pisani, —, they've Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Dow Jones, Treasury, U.S ., Intel, Solutions, House, U.S . House, Republican Locations: New York City

It needs to translate into changes in economic outcomes," Bostic said in comments to reporters alongside the release of a new policy essay. Part of that adaptation is how the Fed's short-term benchmark is translated ultimately into mortgage rates, corporate bonds yields, and other securities that influence economic activity. In separate comments, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she similarly is watching how the rise in bond yields will play out, even though she feels the Fed's policy rate still needs to rise. It may well be that the Fed's hawkish rate posture is no longer the primary impetus for the rise in yields. Reporting by Howard Schneider and Dan Burns; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Raphael, Bostic, Clodagh, Raphael Bostic, Loretta Mester, Mester, Torsten Slok, Slok, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Atlanta Federal Reserve, U.S, Cleveland Fed, Apollo Global Management, Reuters, Fitch, Treasury Department, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Dublin, Ireland, Atlanta, China, York

☆ A top economist explains why a US recession is still on the table
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Phil Rosen | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The US economy is showing signs of resilience, including from the labor market and consumer spending. The labor market has remained robust, steady economic growth is still there, and consumers have yet to buckle. "I think there's still risks gradually accumulating in the economy," Kimbrough said. AdvertisementAdvertisementConsumer and labor market risks loomA number of factors pose as headwinds for consumers, in the chief economist's view. Gregory Daco, EY's chief economist, also recently warned that there are headwinds impacting consumers, forcing them to perhaps cut back on spending.

Persons: isn't, —, Jeremy Grantham, Jamie Dimon, Karin Kimbrough, LinkedIn's, it's, Kimbrough, they've, Gregory Daco, Daco Organizations: Service, Chicago Fed, BlackRock, Labor, of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center, Microeconomic

An employee works on the production line at Jingjin filter press factory in Dezhou, Shandong province, China August 25, 2022. China's non-manufacturing PMI, which incorporates sub-indexes for service sector activity and construction, also rose, coming in at 51.7 versus August's 51.0. PROPERTY RISKSMore stable economic indicators will be welcomed by policymakers as they continue to grapple with a property sector debt crisis that has rattled global markets. Analysts say more policy support will be needed to ensure China's economy can hit the government's growth target of about 5% this year. "China's economy stabilised partly driven by the loosening of property sector policies," said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist of Pinpoint Asset Management.

Persons: Siyi Liu, Zhou Hao, Zhiwei Zhang, Ryan Woo, Tina Qiao, Joe Cash, Michael Perry, William Mallard Organizations: REUTERS, National Bureau of Statistics, PMI, Guotai, China Evergrande, HK, Asian Development Bank, Analysts, Thomson Locations: Dezhou, Shandong province, China, BEIJING

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