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☆ The job market is about to rebound as widespread spending boosts the economy, Apollo chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

In a note to clients, Slok issued a more positive outlook on the US job market, even as hiring has slowed this year. "It is inconsistent to say that the incoming economic data is strong but the labor market is weakening," Slok wrote. AdvertisementHowever, consumption and business spending data have been strong in recent months. If the 30-year fixed rate slumps to around 5%, that could that could spark a rebound in home sales, providing a boost to the economy and job market, Slok said. AdvertisementThe outlook for the job market, though, remains mixed, with some commentators warning that hiring could continue to slow due to the lagged impact of the Fed's rate hikes.

Persons: —, Torsten Slok, Slok, Freddie Mac, David Rosenberg, who's Organizations: Service, Apollo Global Management, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Challenger, IRA, Atlanta Fed Locations: Atlanta

☆ Americans running out of unemployment benefits and part-time jobs at record levels point to a recession coming, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The job market is flashing signs the US is still headed for a hard-landing, Danielle DiMartino Booth says. The forecaster pointed to workers rolling off unemployment benefits, while part-time jobs have soared. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The veteran forecaster and QI Research founder pointed to continued signs of weakness in the US job market, zooming in on a few key areas that are flashing signs of trouble. Booth said that more workers who once qualified for unemployment insurance are now rolling off of their benefits.

Persons: Danielle DiMartino Booth, —, Booth Organizations: Consumers, Service, QI Research, Workers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business

☆ Baby boomers have a ton of their wealth tied up in stocks and housing. Here's why that's a risk to the economy.
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-21 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Khurana thinks what has made boomers the wealthiest generation — stocks and housing — also makes them a risk to economic stability. AdvertisementSuch a scenario is an '"underappreciated risk," he said, given how much boomers' spending habits have fueled economic growth in recent years. The demographic spends around $548 billion a year, more than any other generation, according to a report from marketing research firm Epsilon. AdvertisementBroken down by each generation's holdings of property and stocks, boomers accounted for 42% of all real estate ownership and 54% of all corporate equity and mutual fund ownership. That's not to say boomers will cause the next recession, but the risk during a recession is dialed up under the current paradigm, Khurana said.

Persons: —, America's, Brij, Khurana, boomers, they've, John Hussman, That's Organizations: Service, Wellington Management, Business, McKinsey & Company, New York Fed, Epsilon, New, Boomers, Federal Reserve, Governors Boomers, Governors Locations: New, New York, Florida and Texas

☆ Sanctioned tankers are back to transporting Russian oil in a blow to the West's efforts to restrict crude flows
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The nation loaded at least 17 cargoes of oil and oil products onto ships sanctioned by the West. Another 20 sanctioned ships are still idling by Russia's coasts and ports, the outlet said. A dozen sanctioned ships were known to load Russian crude and crude products in August and September, up from just one sanctioned ship recorded in April, the outlet reported. Another 20 sanctioned tankers are known to be idling near Russia's coasts or anchored at Russian ports, the report added. Falling crude prices also appear to be hitting Russia's oil trade.

Persons: —, Putin Organizations: Bloomberg, West, Service Locations: Russia, Moscow, Belgorod, China

☆ An under-the-radar corner of the stock market has the green light for a 'powerful' catch-up rally, Goldman Sachs portfolio manager says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Small-cap stocks are poised for a significant rally, Goldman Sachs' Greg Tuorto said. The portfolio manager pointed to lower interest rates and a promising economic backdrop for small-caps. The presidential election could also be a positive catalyst, leading to a catch-up rally, he said. That's according to Greg Tuorto, a portfolio manager at Goldman Sachs Asset Management who says he sees a big "catch-up" rally coming for small-cap stocks. AdvertisementThe Russell 2000 surged 2% after the Fed cut interest rates on Wednesday, with the small-cap index up 12% year-to-date.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Greg Tuorto, —, Tuorto, it's, Fundstrat's Tom Lee Organizations: Service, Goldman Sachs, Management, CNBC, Atlanta Fed

☆ Trump Media stock drops as lockup expiration set to give the former president clearance to sell shares
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Shares dropped as much as 4% as a lockup period was set to expire. Following the lockup, Trump can dump his shares, though he's said he wouldn't sell. AdvertisementTrump Media & Technology Group shares dropped to their lowest level since the company went public earlier this year as a lockup period preventing insider selling was set to expire. The company went public in March, with shares spiking to all-time highs above $70 shortly after, before steadily declining in the following months. AdvertisementOnce the lockup period is over, the Republican presidential candidate has the all-clear to start selling his stock.

Persons: Trump, he's, — Organizations: Trump Media, Service, Trump Media & Technology Group, CNBC, Republican

☆ The Fed is following its 1995 playbook — and that's great news for stocks and the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed looks like it's following the same path it did in 1995, according to TS Lombard. It's also great news for stocks, as the S&P 500 more than doubled in value that decade. AdvertisementThe Fed is following a 30-year-old playbook with its interest rate moves — and that's good news for the US economy, according to TS Lombard. Stocks soared a day after the big rate cut. Despite wobbling in the hours after the Fed's rate move, the major indexes hit fresh records in Thursday trades.

Persons: It's, —, Dario Perkins, Perkins, Stocks Organizations: TS Lombard, Service, Fed, American Institute for Economic Research, Cleveland Fed

☆ The stock market got just what it wanted from the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed just issued its first interest rate cut in four years. AdvertisementStocks got a brief leg up to a new intraday record on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve issued its first rate cut since 2020. "The Fed has given the market what it was looking for with the bigger 50-basis point rate cut," Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group said in a statement. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4 p.m. closing bell on Wednesday:AdvertisementStocks have historically reacted well to Fed rate cuts. "All we needed today was for Powell to validate market expectations that the Fed is acknowledging the downside risks to the labor market and responding appropriately."

Persons: Stocks, —, Jerome Powell's, Joel Kruger, Morgan Stanley, Kruger, Tom Lee, Priya Misra, Powell, Jason Pride Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, LMAX, JPMorgan Asset Management Locations: Glenmede

☆ Fed rate cuts are arriving too late and layoffs show the US economy is already in a recession, bond king Jeff Gundlach says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The Fed should have cut interest rates a lot sooner, according to Jeff Gundlach. The "Bond King" thinks the economy is already in recession, as evidenced by rising layoffs. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe Fed is cutting interest rates too late, as mounting job losses show that the US economy is already in a recession, according to Jeff Gundlach.

Persons: Jeff Gundlach, — Organizations: Challenger, Service, Business

☆ Stock market today: Indexes edge up ahead of major Fed interest rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

US indexes edged higher as investors waited for a likely interest rate cut from the Fed. AdvertisementUS stocks rose on Wednesday as traders readied for what's likely to be the Federal Reserves's first rate cut in four years. "Though consensus is leaning toward a 50 basis point move, we look for the Fed to cut by 25 basis points today. AdvertisementFollowing the interest rate decision, all eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who will deliver prepared remarks during a press conference. "While the market has usually bounced immediately following the 2 PM rate decision, the sell-off usually starts at or near the end of Powell's post-FOMC press conference."

Persons: Jerome Powell's, —, John Lynch, José Torres, Jerome Powell, Powell, shouldn't Organizations: Fed, Traders, Service, Federal, Comerica Wealth Management, Interactive, Deutsche Bank, Investment

☆ The 'Fed put' is back. Here's why central bankers will want to support the stock market, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee.
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

That's because the Fed wants a "healthy economy," a big component of which is a strong stock market, he said. AdvertisementThe "Fed put" is back, and stock investors may not be fully pricing in the good news, according to Fundstrat's head of research Tom Lee. The prominent stock bull pointed to the idea that central bankers could move to further ease monetary policy at any sign of weakness in the stock market. AdvertisementA healthy economy, though, hinges on consumer and business confidence, which is largely tied to the stock market, Lee said. We could be seeing turbulence for the next 8 weeks, but this is also in the context of a very strong stock market in 2024," he added.

Persons: Tom Lee, That's, —, Lee, There's Organizations: Fed, Service, Wednesday

☆ New home sales saw the biggest burst of activity in August since 2022, MBA says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The housing market saw a burst of activity in August. New home sales rose around 15% last month, the biggest jump since 2022. Buyers are coming back to the market as mortgage rates ease. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! AdvertisementThe housing market is seeing a fresh burst of activity as mortgage rates edge lower.

Persons: Buyers, — Organizations: Service, Mortgage, Association, Business

☆ Russia is still passing $2 billion worth of its oil products to the West via middlemen, think tank says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The West is still taking in billions worth of Russian oil products, a new think tank analysis shows. AdvertisementRussia is still passing off billions of dollars worth of oil products to the West — a sign that the West is still struggling to throttle Moscow's war revenue with strict sanctions. CREA data shows that Russia sold $1.3 billion worth of oil to three Turkish refineries in the first half of the year. G7+ nations, meanwhile, purchased around $2 billion of oil products of Russian origin from Turkish refiners, the think tank estimated. Turkey is the last-remaining "short-haul market" for Russian oil sent from its western ports, taking in around 210,000 barrels of Russian crude a day the last month, the outlet reported.

Persons: —, It's, crimp Organizations: Service, Centre for Research, Energy, Clean, Argus Media, Bloomberg Locations: Russia, Turkey, West, Turkish, Ukraine, ., New York

☆ Get ready for stocks to embark on a weekslong rally after the Fed cuts rates, Fundstrat's Tom Lee says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks are set to climb higher for at least the next few weeks, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. Lee pointed to the Fed's policy meeting, with markets expecting a rate cut on Wednesday. A Fed rate cut will be bullish for stocks, regardless of its size, he told CNBC. AdvertisementWall Street has been anticipating rate cuts for months, especially as the economy has shown some weakness stemming from tighter financial conditions. However, stocks should move higher regardless of the size of the rate cut, Lee said, so long as central bankers assure markets that more cuts are coming.

Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, —, Powell Organizations: CNBC, Service, Bureau of Labor, New York Fed

☆ Russia's oil revenue has plunged as global crude prices tumble
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Russia's oil revenue has plummeted as global crude prices fall. Oil sales dropped to $1.44 billion in the week ending September 8, per data cited by Bloomberg. AdvertisementRussia's oil business has taken a hit, with the nation's crude revenue dropping to its lowest levels in seven months, according to Argus Media data cited by Bloomberg. Urals crude, Russia's flagship oil blend, has edged lower to $67.61 a barrel, down around 20% from its peak in the spring of this year. Russia is set to make even steeper oil production cuts later in 2024, as part of OPEC's goal to boost crude prices.

Persons: —, Russia's Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Argus Media, Russia's Energy Ministry Locations: Moscow, Russia, Hungary, Asia

☆ Why people are souring on one of the country's hottest housing markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementThe exodus is mainly being driven by higher housing costs, a higher cost of living, and souring attitudes toward the influx of people who moved to Florida in recent years. Property insurance costs in the state are rising at the fastest pace in 20 years, according to Capital Economics. According to Cindy, her home insurance costs around $8,000 a year. The cost of living has also risen, in part due to rising housing costs and more people living in the city.

Persons: —, who's, Cindy, isn't, Rafael Corrales, Corrales, Kevin, hadn't, it's, Bill McBride, McBride, That's, It's, Darryl Fairweather, Redfin, Fairweather Organizations: Service, Business, Tampa —, Capital Economics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Washington DC, Florida Department of Law, Sunshine State Locations: Florida, Sunshine, Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville, South Florida, Miami, St, Pete, Seattle, New York, Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach, Petersburg, Clearwater, Florida's

☆ Nvidia stock can climb for the next 12 months, S&P Global analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Nvidia's stock rally has another 12-18 months left to go, according to S&P Global's Andrew Chang. The stock has at least another year of "strong runaway" amid big demand for its chips, Chang said. His comments bolster predictions of continued upside for Nvidia, Chang said in an interview with Schwab Network on Friday. "It just confirms our view that we have strong runway for at least the next 12 months," Chang said. Nvidia stock sold off in the weeks following its earnings report at the end of August, but the stock staged a fresh rally this week alongside other tech stalwarts including Oracle and Super Micro Computer.

Persons: Andrew Chang, Chang, —, Jensen Huang, Goldman Sachs, Blackwell Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Goldman, Schwab Network, Oracle, Apple, Microsoft, Department of Justice, Bloomberg, Micro Computer, Nasdaq Locations: San Francisco

☆ The US will enter a mild recession as the economy deflates after its boost from unproductive stimulus cash, former Commerce Secretary says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewThe US is moving toward a recession, as the economy is feeling the comedown after trillions of "unproductive" cash was pumped in during the pandemic, according to former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. AdvertisementBut most of the stimulus cash wasn't deployed productively, Ross said, pointing to Americans who "immediately spent" their checks in a wild shopping spree. Related storiesStrength in the labor market was also partly distorted by stimulus cash, he suggested. Hiring has steadily slowed over the past year, with the unemployment rate triggering one long-running recession indicator with a perfect track record. Most economists still agree that the economy remains on solid footing, given the rapid pace of growth and historically low unemployment rate.

Persons: —, Wilbur Ross, Trump, Ross Organizations: Service, Commerce, Bloomberg, Business, Conference, Investor

☆ Russia stands to lose $6.5 billion a year if Ukraine doesn't renew a gas pipeline deal at the end of the year, report says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Russia's energy revenue could take another hit if Ukraine doesn't renew a key gas deal by the end of the year. AdvertisementRussia could end up losing billions if Ukraine turns its back on a deal to keep gas flowing from the country. Ukraine's state-run energy giant, Naftogaz, is up to renew its gas pipeline deal with Russia's Gazprom by the end of the year. Ending the pipeline deal would be a blow to Russia's gas trade, which is a key lifeline for the economy as it navigates a third year of war in Ukraine. Recently, Russia established a gas pipeline deal with China, which has become one of its largest trading partners.

Persons: Ukraine doesn't, — Organizations: Moscow, Service, Gazprom, Bloomberg, Ukraine, Yale Locations: Ukraine, Europe, Russia, Ukraine's, Moscow, China

☆ An influx of young people entering the housing market next year will lead to a homebuilding boom, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewA wave of younger buyers are about to enter the housing market in a trend that could spark a boom for homebuilders, according to one housing analyst. That's because young Americans are itching to buy a home, and they'll likely enter the housing market in droves once mortgage rates come down, he told CNBC in a recent interview. AdvertisementThe 30-year fixed mortgage rate hovered around 6.35% the last week, Freddie Mac data shows, close to their lowest level since early 2023. Yet, 89% of existing homeowners have a mortgage rate below 6%, Redfin found in a survey at the start of the year. Mortgage rates, though, could be slow to come down, housing experts say.

Persons: —, Phillip Ng, they'll, We've, Ng, Freddie Mac, Redfin, Pricing's Organizations: Service, Jefferies, CNBC, Business, Buyers, National Association of Realtors, Builders, Mortgage Locations: Redfin

☆ Stock market today: Stocks fall as annual inflation slows but monthly CPI notches surprise increase
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Core inflation rose 0.3% in August, slightly above economists' expectations. Meanwhile, investors dashed their hopes for a 50 basis point rate cut from the Fed next week. AdvertisementUS stocks traded mixed on Wednesday as investors took in last month's inflation report, which showed an unexpected increase in the monthly core consumer price index. Bond yields rose as traders readjusted expectations for a jumbo rate hike of 50 basis points at next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. AdvertisementThe surprise increase led investors to almost completely discount the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut at the Fed's next policy meeting.

Persons: —, Josh Jamner, Jack McIntyre Organizations: Fed, Service, Dow Jones, ClearBridge Investments, Brandywine Global Locations: Here's

☆ Delinquent debt is piling up. Here's why it's not a reason to worry about the US consumer, according to BofA CEO Brian Moynihan.
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

There's no need to worry about consumers falling behind on debt payments, BofA's Brian Moynihan said. Deliquency rates on credit card and auto loans are normalizing and are close to 2019 levels. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! AdvertisementConsumers are falling behind on their credit card and auto loan payments, but that's actually not such a big deal for the economy, according to Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan. Late payments on consumer credit card loans have ticked slightly higher over the last quarter, with 9.1% of credit card balances and 8% of car loans transitioning into delinquency, according to the New York Fed's latest Household Debt and Credit Survey.

Persons: BofA's Brian Moynihan, —, that's, Brian Moynihan, Moynihan shrugged Organizations: Service, Bank of America, CNBC, Credit Survey, Business Locations: York

☆ Here's why the stock market is throwing a tantrum about new inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Core inflation rose unexpectedly, dashing hopes for a bigger rate cut from the Fed. US indexes slumped on Wednesday, with the Dow dropping as much as 600 basis points in the early morning as traders took a mixed-bag of inflation data. That's the lowest headline inflation rate recorded since early 2021. On the other hand, cutting interest rates by just 25 basis points means higher for longer interest rates. "Today's inflation data cemented in a 25 basis point cut next week 50 basis points in out the window," she added.

Persons: —, Julian Howard, Gina Bolvin, Preston Caldwell, Chris Zacarelli Organizations: Fed, Traders, Service, Dow, of Labor Statistics, GAM Investments, Bolvin Wealth Management, Labor Department, Morningstar, Independent

☆ Stock market today: Indexes rise as stocks whipsaw after inflation-fueled decline
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks traded mixed as traders reacted to a mixed inflation report. Core consumer prices rose more than expected, reducing chances of a 50 basis-point rate cut. AdvertisementUS stocks traded mixed on Wednesday, with investors staging a recovery after taking in a mixed inflation report. Odds for a 50 basis-point cut have been slashed by more than half to just 15%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Markets will assess August producer price inflation data and weekly jobless claims on Thursday and fresh retail sales data next Tuesday.

Persons: —, Bill Adams, Jensen Huang, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, Traders, Comercia Bank, Bank of America, Tech, Nvidia, Here's

☆ Nvidia stock is on track to double in coming years as AI follows the path of past tech bubbles, portfolio manager says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Nvidia stock has a lot more room to run, according to Dan Niles. The Niles Investment founder compared Nvidia to Cisco prior to the peak of the dot-com bubble. Nvidia shares could double in the next couple of years, he predicted. Nvidia shares, by comparison, have risen around 1,500% over the last six years. The chipmaker has hit a rough stretch in recent weeks, with shares dropping 27% from their peak earlier this summer.

Persons: Dan Niles, —, who's, Niles, you've, I've, Blackwell Organizations: Niles Investment, Nvidia, Cisco, Service, Niles Investment Management, CNBC, Blackwell, Nasdaq

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