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☆ A low-cost trade that wins if the S&P 500 breaks out and heads for 5,000 next
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( Jeff Kilburg | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

After a stuttering start to 2024, the S & P 500 has found its way into positive territory and the benchmark seems poised to establish a new all-time close Friday, surpassing the 4,800 level which served as resistance back in January of 2022. My optimism on U.S. equities is predicated on the continued strength of the U.S. consumer and our economy but, I believe the real reason for the S & P 500 to possibly run up and kiss 5,000 is because of the underinvested bears. SPY 5Y mountain SPDR S & P 500 (SPY), 5 years Investors will remain focused on continuous Fed messaging specific to the timing of the rate cuts in the wake of the Fed's telegraphed pivot from being hawkish to dovish in the fourth quarter. The trade: To reduce the cost of simply being long an at-the-money SPY call, I want to buy a call spread. DISCLOSURES: (Long SPY and long this call spread) THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY .

Persons: TSM Organizations: Federal Reserve, Taiwan Semiconductor Locations: dovish, SOXX

☆ Sell the hype: A trade that wins if bitcoin retreats now that an ETF is finally here
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-12 | by ( Jeff Kilburg | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Asset managers, as well as investors, have been hoping for a spot bitcoin ETF for more than a decade. The reluctant approval from the SEC follows many years of rejections and delays of various attempts to launch a spot bitcoin ETF for public investing. After that legal ruling, money managers had significant confidence heading into 2024 for this spot bitcoin ETF vehicle to come to fruition. The trade In order to express my bearish view on bitcoin, I will use COIN as a proxy to bitcoin. I can hedge my long bitcoin exposure, define my risk in the trade, and also reduce hedging costs.

Persons: bitcoin Organizations: SEC Locations: United States

☆ An options trade with no cost that wins if this is just a short market pullback and not a bigger sell-off
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-05 | by ( Jeff Kilburg | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Naysayers and market bears were annihilated last year after a better-than-expected return for the S & P 500 ETF in the post mid-term election year of 2023. My bullish view is that the recent 2% drop in the S & P 500 reveals opportunity versus signs of a much larger pullback. .VIX 6M mountain The CBOE Volatility Index, 6 months My last input into this bullish view is looking at a chart of the S & P 500 ETF (SPY) . If you concur that equity markets should perform well in this first month of January in 2024, the below bullish risk reversal should allow you to capture a short-term move higher. This risk reversal is being used as an aggressive bull trade.

Persons: Santa Claus, jitters, Kilburg Locations: Santa

☆ A hedged options bet on Tesla's run to continue into January
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-20 | by ( Jeff Kilburg | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

One word we will all say (most likely at nauseum) in 2024 is Optimus (Tesla's bipedal robot). Optimus was toting a gun and fired multiple shots on the new Cybertruck to reveal its bulletproof capabilities. Musk said Optimus would use the same technology and software as Tesla's vehicles, such as the Autopilot system and the Full Self-Driving computer. One of the multiple benefits germane to Tesla stock would be having these Optimus bots assist on the Tesla production line. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.

Persons: Tesla, Elon Musk's, Optimus, Musk Organizations: AMD, Optimus, Elon, Tesla

☆ Earnings Exchange: Toll Brothers, Box & Campbell Soup
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEarnings Exchange: Toll Brothers, Box & Campbell SoupJeff Kilburg, KKM Financial founder and CEO, joins ‘The Exchange’ to discuss Toll Brothers, Box, and Campbell Soup.

Persons: Campbell, Jeff Kilburg Organizations: Toll, KKM Financial

☆ A lower risk way to bet on a Tesla rally as Musk's comments add to share-price volatility
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Jeff Kilburg | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Tesla CEO Elon Musk hosted a delivery event this week at the company's factory in Austin, Texas, touting its towing abilities, race-car like acceleration, and even bulletproof doors. This jaw dropping event is in the wake of Elon Musk's comments earlier this week at the 2023 DealBook Summit in New York. The current opportunity I see for TSLA is a move higher into 2024 once this volatility is digested, yet again. Tesla call spread To capture this move higher, I want to buy a call spread. DISCLOSURES: (Long Tesla, short tesla puts, long call spread) THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY .

Persons: Elon Musk, Tesla, Elon Musk's, Elon, tesla Organizations: EV Locations: Austin , Texas, New York

☆ A lower-cost bet on a year-end rally in Amazon using options
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( Jeff Kilburg | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

I'm going to look at a low cost way to bet on a year-end continuation in the comeback in the shares. That $100 million expenditure is on top of the $1 billion per year Amazon (AMZN) is already paying to broadcast 15 or 16 Thursday Night Football games annually until 2033. Amazon revenue for the 12 months ending September 30, 2023 was not too shabby at $554 billion, a 10 percent increase year-over-year. AMZN mountain 2020-12-31 Amazon since 2020 It is also imperative to remember that Amazon has a vast business with multiple categories from e-commerce to cloud computing. DISCLOSURES: (Long the 1x2 vertical spread and AMZN stock) THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY .

Persons: AMZN Organizations: NFL, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Football, New York Yankees, Seattle Storm, League, English Premier League, behemoth, Amazon, Amazon's AWS, Microsoft, Google Locations: Italy, Germany, India

☆ Earnings Exchange: Nordstrom, Nvidia & Deere
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEarnings Exchange: Nordstrom, Nvidia & DeereJeff Kilburg, KKM Financial founder and CEO, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss Nordstrom, Nvidia, and Deere.

Persons: Deere Jeff Kilburg, Nordstrom Organizations: Nordstrom, Nvidia, Deere, KKM Financial

☆ An options trade that wins if Nvidia moves big on earnings in either direction
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Jeff Kilburg | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Nvidia straddle A long NVDA straddle pays off when volatility increases and the price of the underlying moves by a significant amount, but it doesn't matter whether it's to the upside or the downside. The profit potential is virtually unlimited, so long as the price of the underlying security moves very sharply. Nine percent is the implied volatility going into earnings, that sets the pricing of these options. If you are long NVDA outright, you may want to consider a different and more protective approach (covered call or owning puts, etc.). DISCLOSURES: Long straddle and stock, firm long stock THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY .

Persons: OpenAI chatbot ChatGPT, Nvidia's, NVDA Organizations: Securities and Exchange Commission, Nvidia

☆ Earnings Exchange: Gap, BJ's Wholesale & Applied Materials
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEarnings Exchange: Gap, BJ's Wholesale & Applied MaterialsJeff Kilburg, KKM Financial founder and CEO, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss Gap, BJ's Wholesale, and Applied Materials.

Persons: Jeff Kilburg Organizations: Wholesale, Applied, KKM Financial, Materials

☆ An aggressive bullish trade betting on the rapid comeback in small-cap stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Jeff Kilburg | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Small caps have been struggling versus their peers as a rising interest rate environment has absolutely punished these growth companies. My thesis of small caps finally getting up off the mat is based upon my recent and lonely call of U.S. Treasury yields relenting. In addition, I have repositioned my model portfolios' exposure to include small caps for the remaining six trading weeks of 2023. "Bid" meaning that I am not alone in this idea of small caps finding some legs between now and the end of the year. This risk reversal is being used as an aggressive bull trade.

Persons: Russell, IWM Organizations: Nasdaq, Treasury, Fed

☆ Three buys and a bail: ExxonMobil, Occidental, Halliburton & SolarEdge
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThree buys and a bail: ExxonMobil, Occidental, Halliburton & SolarEdgeJeff Kilburg, KKM Financial founder and CEO, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss three buys and a bail, including ExxonMobil, Occidental, Halliburton and SolarEdge.

Persons: Jeff Kilburg Organizations: ExxonMobil, Occidental, Halliburton, KKM Financial, SolarEdge

☆ A bullish bet on Exxon Mobil using options after decline in crude oil prices
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( Jeff Kilburg | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

@CL.1 YTD mountain WTI in 2023 Despite all of that sounding quite bleak for energy and oil, I believe there is opportunity in Exxon Mobil . Exxon is the world's largest refiner with a total global oil refining capacity of nearly 5 million barrels per day. The option strategy that I will utilize is a credit spread, better known as a risk reversal. This risk reversal is being used as an aggressive bull trade. Being forced to buy Exxon Mobil lower than where I initially opened the risk reversal is still a better outcome than if I would have simply purchased the stock outright.

Persons: Brian Sullivan, Sully, XOM Organizations: West Texas, Exxon Mobil, Exxon Locations: China

☆ A prudent way to bet on a bounce in Apple following its post-earnings decline
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Jeff Kilburg | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Apple has kept up with the Nasdaq 100's outperforming year and continues to deliver alpha per the 3 year look back. The tech giant reported $383.29 billion in sales for the full fiscal year, down about 3% from the prior year. Apple recorded $22.31 billion in services revenue, outpacing analyst expectations and increasing more than 16% from a year earlier. Selling a call spread will help me in capturing my view as long as Apple does not move up more than 10% from here. A bear call Spread The option strategy that I will utilize is selling a call spread better known as a bear call spread .

Persons: Apple Organizations: Apple, Nasdaq, Microsoft, U.S Locations: China

☆ Earnings Exchange: Block, DraftKings & Carvana
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEarnings Exchange: Block, DraftKings & CarvanaJeff Kilburg, KKM Financial founder and CEO, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss Block, DraftKings, and Carvana.

Persons: Jeff Kilburg Organizations: KKM Financial

☆ A cautious way to bet on a bounce in one of the broken 'Magnificent Seven' stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Jeff Kilburg | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The so-called Magnificent Seven group of stocks, which rose together for most of 2023, are starting to break-up this earnings season. The Magnificent Seven constituents (Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, and Tesla) have been the main performance drivers in the S & P 500 index all year. The super-duper seven have added almost $4 trillion in market cap in 2023 alone while collectively as a group contributed roughly 90% of the S & P 500's 2023 gain. I want to focus on one of the high-flying Magnificent Seven names: Tesla . Using the SPDR S & P 500 ETF (SPY) , traders saw the 200-day violated at $422 and Relative Strength Indicator levels have now been slammed into oversold territory.

Persons: Microsoft's, Tesla, TSLA Organizations: Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, Investors, Elon Musk's EV

☆ Here's why KKM Financial's Jeff Kilburg doesn't want to own Coca-Cola
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHere's why KKM Financial's Jeff Kilburg doesn't want to own Coca-ColaJeff Kilburg, KKM Financial founder and CEO, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss declining domestic demand for soda hurting Coca-Cola's earnings, the UAW strike hurting GM's manufacturing numbers, and Spotify's struggle to reach profitability.

Persons: Jeff Kilburg doesn't, Jeff Kilburg Organizations: KKM Financial, UAW

☆ Kilburg: Markets are likely to persist and move higher in the near-term
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailKilburg: Markets are likely to persist and move higher in the near-termJeff Kilburg, Founder and CEO of KKM Financial, discusses stocks vs. bonds and where he's looking for investment opportunities.

Persons: Jeff Kilburg Organizations: KKM

☆ A bullish trade on tech stocks using options that could cost nothing, if it moves in right direction
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Jeff Kilburg | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The highly anticipated speech moved the 10-year yield lower to nearly 4.90% as another rate hike in 2023 seemingly has become less likely. The option strategy that I will utilize is a credit spread but, better known as a risk reversal. If an investor is long a stock, they could create a short risk reversal to hedge their position by buying a put option and selling a call option. No cost...with a catch This risk reversal is being used as an aggressive bull trade. While there is a lot of time before this option strategy expires, there is an opportunity to manage this spread as it either moves for or against me.

Persons: Jerome Powell, dovishly, Powell, Powell's, Long Organizations: Nasdaq, Federal, Treasury Locations: U.S

☆ Tesla should be seen as both an automotive and an AI play, says KKM Financial's Jeff Kilburg
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTesla should be seen as both an automotive and an AI play, says KKM Financial's Jeff KilburgJeff Kilburg, KKM Financial founder and CEO, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss Tesla earnings expectations, the case for buying Lam Research, and more.

Persons: KKM, Jeff Kilburg Jeff Kilburg Organizations: KKM Financial, Lam Research

☆ Walgreen's new CEO has a great reputation for growing investor appetite, says KKM Financial CEO
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWalgreen's new CEO has a great reputation for growing investor appetite, says KKM Financial CEOJeff Kilburg, KKM Financial founder and CEO, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss Walgreen's upcoming earnings report, how Delta compares to airline competitors, and Domino's effort to entice customers with the UberEats loyalty plan.

Persons: Jeff Kilburg Organizations: KKM Financial

☆ Birkenstock slides about 10% in stock market debut after opening at $41 per share
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBirkenstock slides about 10% in stock market debut after opening at $41 per shareJeff Kilburg, KKM Financial founder and CEO, and CNBC's Leslie Picker join 'The Exchange' to discuss the Birkenstock IPO opening, competition in the footwear space, and the health of the IPO market.

Persons: Jeff Kilburg, CNBC's Leslie Picker Organizations: KKM Financial

☆ Kilburg: This year, stocks have seen an exaggeration to both the upside and downside
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailKilburg: This year, stocks have seen an exaggeration to both the upside and downsideJeff Kilburg, Founder and CEO of KKM Financial, discusses the outlook for bonds and stocks as Q3 comes to a close.

Persons: Jeff Kilburg Organizations: KKM

☆ A rebound in memory chips is elevating Micron's performance, says KKM's Jeff Kilburg
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA rebound in memory chips is elevating Micron's performance, says KKM's Jeff KilburgJeff Kilburg, KKM Financial founder and CEO, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss how the restriction on chips from China is impacting Micron, the UAW strike driving used car prices back up, and high bond yields reflecting a struggling equities market.

Persons: Jeff Kilburg Jeff Kilburg Organizations: KKM Financial, Micron, UAW Locations: China

☆ Kilburg: The direction for stocks is contingent on the 10-year and the monthly jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailKilburg: The direction for stocks is contingent on the 10-year and the monthly jobs reportJeff Kilburg, Founder and CEO of KKM Financial, discusses the trading day ahead and which stocks are on his shopping list.

Persons: Jeff Kilburg Organizations: KKM

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