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☆ Powell indicates further, smaller rate cuts, insists the Fed is 'not on any preset course'
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | Jeff Cox Is A Finance Editor With Cnbc.Com Where He Covers All Aspects Of The Markets | Monitors Coverage Of The Financial Markets | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +4 min

But we are not on any preset course,” he told the National Association for Business Economics in prepared remarks. A basis point equals 0.01%. “We do not believe that we need to see further cooling in labor market conditions to achieve 2 percent inflation,” Powell added. For his part, Powell expressed confidence in economic strength and sees inflation continuing to cool. Broader economic conditions also set the table for further disinflation.”Following the speech, Powell was scheduled to sit for a question-and-answer session with Morgan Stanley economist Ellen Zentner.

Persons: Jerome Powell, ”, ” Powell, Powell, “, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner Organizations: National Association for Business Economics, Committee, Fed Locations: Nashville

☆ Watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell speak live on economy, policy views
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak Monday to the National Association for Business Economists during the organization's annual conference in Nashville. The central bank chair is delivering his assessment on the economy as well as his policy views. Following the speech, Powell will speak in a moderated discussion with Ellen Zentner, global head of thematic and macro investing at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. The speech comes less than two weeks after the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee approved a half-percentage-point reduction in its key overnight borrowing rate, the first rate reduction in more than four years. Markets expect the Fed to follow up with additional cuts this year and in 2025 depending on the path of the economic data.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Ellen Zentner Organizations: National Association for Business Economists, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, CNBC, YouTube Locations: Nashville

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Shiny September days for stocks
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Brendan Mcdermid | ReutersThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Stocks' defiant showing this September was helped by positive sentiment generated by the U.S. Federal Reserve's jumbo rate cut and upbeat economic data. Relatedly, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for September rose to a better-than-forecast 70.1 from 67.9 in August. "Inflation continues to keep its head down, and while economic growth may be slowing, there's no indication it's falling off a cliff."

Persons: Brendan Mcdermid, Chris Larkin, Morgan Stanley, –, Jeff Cox, Brian Evans, Pia Singh Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, CNBC, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, U.S, U.S . Federal, University of, U.S . Bureau, Atlanta Locations: U.S .

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Stocks are dancing in September
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Andrew Kelly | ReutersThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Stocks' defiant showing this September was helped by positive sentiment generated by the U.S. Federal Reserve's jumbo rate cut and upbeat economic data. Relatedly, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for September rose to a better-than-forecast 70.1 from 67.9 in August. "Inflation continues to keep its head down, and while economic growth may be slowing, there's no indication it's falling off a cliff."

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Chris Larkin, Morgan Stanley, –, Jeff Cox, Brian Evans, Pia Singh Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, CNBC, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, U.S, U.S . Federal, University of, U.S . Bureau, Atlanta Locations: U.S .

☆ Today's market is a 'bubble dream' with rate cuts, China inflating economy, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-27 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Massive stimulus from central banks in the U.S., China and elsewhere is driving bubble-like stock returns and could head off a global recession, according to Bank of America. "It's the bubble dream," BofA chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in his weekly "Flow Show" breakdown of where investors are putting their money. "Fed slashing, oil crashing, China inflating ... and if this China stimulus don't work then geopolitical risks [are] going to soar." But while some indicators do point to a slowing in global growth, the abundant forecasts for recession have eased. "Fed cutting into recession is negative for risk assets, but Fed cutting with no recession is positive and investors firmly of view Fed + China is sufficient policy easing to short-circuit recession risk," Hartnett wrote.

Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America, Federal Reserve, People's Bank of China, Investors Locations: U.S, China

☆ Key Fed inflation gauge at 2.2% in August, lower than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-27 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting all-items PCE to rise 0.1% on the month and 2.3% from a year ago. Excluding food and energy, core PCE rose 0.1% in August and was up 2.7% from a year ago, the 12-month number 0.1 percentage point higher than July. "All quiet on the inflation front," said Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at E-Trade from Morgan Stanley. Personal income increased 0.2% on the month while spending rose 0.2%. At their meeting last week, policymakers indicated a likelihood of another half percentage point in cuts this year then a full point in reductions for 2025, though markets expect a more aggressive path.

Persons: Dow Jones, Chris Larkin, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Commerce Department, Fed, Stock Locations: U.S

☆ CNBC Daily Open: More all-time highs? Yes please
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-27 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Why are Treasury yields rising? Treasury yields tend to move in tandem with interest rates. When the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week, it's not unreasonable to expect Treasury yields to dip.

Persons: Hong, it's, they've, Jeff Cox, Sam Altman, Bret Taylor, Sarah Friar, OpenAI's, Ishiba, Shigeru Ishiba, Sanae Takaichi Organizations: CNBC, Major, CSI, Treasury, U.S . Federal Reserve, Altman, PM, Liberal Democratic, Bank of, People's Bank of China, Barclays Locations: Major U.S, Asia, Pacific

☆ CNBC Daily Open: A high of all-time highs
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-27 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. All-time high, againMajor U.S. indexes rose on Thursday, with the S&P 500 notching a fresh closing high. When the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week, it's not unreasonable to expect Treasury yields to dip. But 55% of respondents think Trump will be better for the economy and on inflation.

Persons: Europe's, it's, they've, Jeff Cox, Sam Altman, Bret Taylor, Harris, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Trump Organizations: CNBC, Major, Micron, Swiss National Bank, Treasury, U.S . Federal Reserve, Altman, U.S Locations: Major U.S, China

☆ The Fed slashed interest rates last week, but Treasury yields are rising. What’s going on?
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | Jeff Cox Is A Finance Editor With Cnbc.Com Where He Covers All Aspects Of The Markets | Monitors Coverage Of The Financial Markets | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +6 min

The Treasury market, though, hasn’t been paying attention. Officials penciled in another 50 basis points in reductions by the end of the year and another 100 by the end of 2025. That sentiment is evident in the “breakeven” inflation rate, or the difference between standard Treasury and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities yields. The 5-year breakeven rate, for instance, has risen 8 basis points since the Fed meeting and is up 20 basis points since Sept. 11. Taken together, the various dynamics in the Treasury market are making it a difficult time for investors.

Persons: hasn’t, ”, Jonathan Duensing, — haven’t, “, Robert Tipp, We’re, Jerome, Powell, ” Duensing, Tom Garretson, “ They’d, There’s Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Amundi, Fed, CME, Treasury Inflation, RBC Wealth Management

☆ The Fed slashed interest rates last week, but Treasury yields are rising. What's going on?
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Treasury market, though, hasn't been paying attention. Watching the curveThe difference between the 10- and 2-year notes has widened significantly, increasing by about 12 basis points since the Fed meeting. That sentiment is evident in the "breakeven" inflation rate, or the difference between standard Treasury and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities yields. The 5-year breakeven rate, for instance, has risen 8 basis points since the Fed meeting and is up 20 basis points since Sept. 11. watch nowFed officials aim for a 2% inflation rate, and none of the principal gauges are there yet.

Persons: Anna Moneymaker, hasn't, Jonathan Duensing, — haven't, Robert Tipp Organizations: Federal Reserve, Getty, Treasury, Amundi, Fed, CME, Treasury Inflation Locations: Washington , DC

☆ Consumer confidence fell more than expected this month
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | Jeff Cox Is A Finance Editor With Cnbc.Com Where He Covers All Aspects Of The Markets | Monitors Coverage Of The Financial Markets | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +2 min

The board’s Consumer Confidence Index slid to 98.7, down from 105.6 in August, the biggest one-month decline since August 2021. By contrast, the index had a reading of 132.6 in February 2020, a month before the Covid pandemic hit. Each of the five components the organization samples fared worse on the month, with the biggest fall coming among those aged 35-54 and earning less than $50,000. “Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further. Consumers were also more pessimistic about future labor market conditions and less positive about future business conditions and future income,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.

Persons: Dow, ”, Dana Peterson, Stocks, ” Peterson Organizations: Conference Board, Treasury, Federal Reserve

☆ Fed Governor Bowman explains dissent on rate vote, says she’s worried about inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | Jeff Cox Is A Finance Editor With Cnbc.Com Where He Covers All Aspects Of The Markets | Monitors Coverage Of The Financial Markets | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +3 min

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Tuesday she thought her colleagues should have taken a more measured approach to last week’s half percentage point interest rate cut as she worries that inflation could reignite. In explaining her rationale, Bowman said the half percentage point, or 50 basis point, reduction posed a number of risks to the Fed’s twin goals of achieving low inflation and full employment. Though Bowman favored a reduction, she preferred the Fed lower by a quarter percentage point, more in line with the traditional moves at the central bank. In recent statements, Fed officials have cited easing inflation and a softening labor market as justification for the cut. At last week’s meeting, individual policymakers indicated they expect another half percentage point in cuts this year and another full point in 2025.

Persons: Michelle Bowman, Bowman, ” Organizations: Federal Locations: Kentucky

☆ September consumer confidence falls the most in three years
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The board's Consumer Confidence Index slid to 98.7, down from 105.6 in August, the biggest one-month decline since August 2021. By contrast, the index had a reading of 132.6 in February 2020, a month before the Covid pandemic hit. "Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further. Consumers were also more pessimistic about future labor market conditions and less positive about future business conditions and future income," said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board. The last time the confidence index dropped more came as inflation was just beginning a climb to what ultimately was the highest level in more than 40 years.

Persons: Dow, Dana Peterson, Stocks, Peterson Organizations: Conference Board, Treasury, Federal Reserve

☆ Fed Governor Bowman explains dissent on rate vote, says she's worried about inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Tuesday she thought her colleagues should have taken a more measured approach to last week's half percentage point interest rate cut as she worries that inflation could reignite. In explaining her rationale, Bowman said the half percentage point, or 50 basis point, reduction posed a number of risks to the Fed's twin goals of achieving low inflation and full employment. Though Bowman favored a reduction, she preferred the Fed lower by a quarter percentage point, more in line with the traditional moves at the central bank. In recent statements, Fed officials have cited easing inflation and a softening labor market as justification for the cut. At last week's meeting, individual policymakers indicated they expect another half percentage point in cuts this year and another full point in 2025.

Persons: Michelle Bowman, Bowman Organizations: Federal Locations: Kentucky

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Vaguely reassuring Fedspeak
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. In an interview with CNBC, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said, "We still have a strong, healthy labor market. But I want to keep it a strong, healthy labor market." Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic was more circumspect.

Persons: IXIC BRBY, Jerome Powell, Michael Nagle, Neel Kashkari, Raphael Bostic, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, yesterday's Fedspeak, Dow, Jeff Cox, Brian Evans, Alex Harring Organizations: US Federal Reserve, Market, New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Minneapolis, Atlanta Fed, National Association of State, Chicago Fed, Dow, Nasdaq Locations: New York, U.S

☆ Treasury yields rise as investors await Fed speeches and a fresh batch of economic data
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Sam Meredith | In Samuelmeredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The yield on the 10-year Treasury was more than 4 basis points higher at 3.789%, while the 2-year Treasury yield rose 2 basis points to trade at 3.597%. U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Tuesday as market participants awaited fresh economic data and further comments from Federal Reserve officials. The 10-year Treasury yield ended last week almost 8 basis points higher after the U.S. central bank lowered interest rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday. "I think after 50 basis points, we're still in a net tight position," Kashkari said in a CNBC "Squawk Box" interview. On the data front, consumer confidence data for September and Richmond Fed surveys for September are both scheduled to be released at 10 a.m.

Persons: Neel Kashkari, we're, Kashkari, Michelle Bowman, Adriana Kugler, Jeff Cox, Brian Evans, Jenni Reid Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Minneapolis Federal, CNBC, Fed, Richmond Fed Locations: U.S, Minneapolis

☆ Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari sees a slower pace of rate cuts ahead
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said Monday that he expects policymakers to dial down the pace of interest rate cuts after last week's half percentage point reduction. "I think after 50 basis points, we're still in a net tight position," Kashkari said in a CNBC "Squawk Box" interview. "Right now, we still have a strong, healthy labor market. In their latest economic projections, FOMC members indicated that rate is probably around 2.9%; the current fed funds rate is targeted between 4.75% and 5%. Speaking separately Monday morning, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic indicated he expects the Fed to move aggressively in getting back to a neutral rate.

Persons: Neel Kashkari, we're, Kashkari, Kasharki, Raphael Bostic, Bostic Organizations: Minneapolis Federal, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Fed Locations: Minneapolis

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Markets have finally processed the good news
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. [PRO] Commodity price movements Stocks have rallied on the back of the Fed's rate cut. The S&P climbed 1.7% to end at 5,713.64, the first time the broad-based index has broken through the 5,700 ceiling. At the end of Washington's song, she croons, "What a difference a day makes / And the difference is you."

Persons: Stocks, it's, Jerome Powell's, Jeff Cox, Dinah Washington, Oppenheimer, Brian Belski, Powell, –, Alex Harring, Fred Imbert, Hakyung Kim, Lisa Kailai Han Organizations: Nasdaq, CNBC, Citi, HSBC, People's Bank of, Bank of, Fed, Dow, Nvidia, Apple, BMO Locations: New York, China, Japan, Asia, People's Bank of China, Bank of Japan, Dinah Washington . Washington

☆ Fed Governor Waller says inflation softening faster than he expected put him in half-point-cut camp
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Friday he supported a half percentage point rate cut at this week's meeting because inflation is falling even faster than he had expected. A week before the Fed meeting, markets were overwhelmingly pricing in a 25 basis point cut. Along with the decision, individual officials signaled the likelihood of another half point in cuts this year, followed by a full percentage point of reductions in 2025. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman was the only Federal Open Market Committee member to vote against the reduction, instead preferring a smaller quarter percentage point cut. "I was a big advocate of large rate hikes when inflation was moving much, much faster than any of us expected," he said.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, CNBC's Steve Liesman, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal, CNBC, Fed, Market, Commerce Department

☆ CNBC Daily Open: One day makes all the difference
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. "Recalibration" Fed Chair Jerome Powell's use of the word "recalibration" seemed to reassure investors that the central bank's 50 basis point cut wasn't that worrying. It signaled the Fed wasn't responding to a slowing economy, but shifting focus to ensuring employment doesn't dip further, wrote CNBC's Jeff Cox. At the end of Washington's song, she croons, "What a difference a day makes / And the difference is you."

Persons: BOE, Jerome Powell's, Jeff Cox, Dinah Washington, Oppenheimer, Brian Belski, Powell, –, Alex Harring, Fred Imbert, Hakyung Kim, Lisa Kailai Han Organizations: Nasdaq, CNBC, JPMorgan Chase, of England, Monetary, Fed, Dow, Nvidia, Apple, BMO Locations: New York, Dinah Washington . Washington

☆ The Fed has set out on a 'recalibration' of policy. Here's what Powell's new buzzword means
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has unveiled his latest buzzword to describe monetary policy, with a "recalibration" of policy at a pivotal moment for the central bank. "This recalibration of our policy stance will help maintain the strength of the economy and the labor market, and will continue to enable further progress on inflation as we begin the process of moving forward a more neutral stance," Powell said. Financial markets weren't quite sure what to make of the chair's messaging in the meeting's immediate aftermath. However, asset prices soared Thursday as investors took Powell at his word that the unusually outsized move wasn't in response to a substantial slowing of the economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 jumped to new highs in trading Thursday after swinging violently Wednesday.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, didn't, Tom Porcelli Organizations: Financial, Dow Jones Industrial

☆ JPMorgan economist who nailed half-point call sees another big Fed rate cut in November
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

At its much-anticipated meeting Wednesday, the Fed approved a half percentage point, or 50 basis point, cut to its benchmark funds rate that ran counter to the 25 basis point move that many Wall Street economists and strategists had been expecting. The benchmark fed funds rate now stands at 4.75% to 5.00% after Wednesday's move. Futures market pricing Thursday suggested a 25 basis point move in November followed by a 50 basis point cut in December, according to the CME Group's FedWatch. A basis point equals 0.01%. "Ultimately what we found most important in what Powell said was also among the least surprising things he said: future decisions are going to depend on the data," Feroli wrote.

Persons: Michael Feroli, Feroli, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Fed, Street Locations: U.S

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Markets seemed taken aback by the 50-point cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Anna Moneymaker | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. By contrast, the prevailing sentiment among experts was that a 25-point cut was more likely, according to a CNBC survey. And he was likely aware that a bigger-than-usual cut might connote that the Fed's worried about the economy. "I don't see anything in the economy right now that suggests that the likelihood of a recession, sorry, of a downturn, is elevated," Powell said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, Anna Moneymaker, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Jeff Cox, Yun Li, Hakyung Kim, Samantha Subin Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, Getty, CNBC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Locations: Washington , DC

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Markets need time to digest the 50-point cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Anna Moneymaker | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. By contrast, the prevailing sentiment among experts was that a 25-point cut was more likely, according to a CNBC survey. And he was likely aware that a bigger-than-usual cut might connote that the Fed's worried about the economy. "I don't see anything in the economy right now that suggests that the likelihood of a recession, sorry, of a downturn, is elevated," Powell said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, Anna Moneymaker, Jerome Powell's, Powell, –, Jeff Cox, Yun Li, Hakyung Kim, Samantha Subin Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Locations: Washington , DC

☆ Fed slashes interest rates by a half point, an aggressive start to its first easing campaign in four years
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The matrix of individual officials' expectations pointed to another full percentage point in cuts by the end of 2025 and a half-point in 2026. In all, the dot plot shows the benchmark rate coming down about 2 percentage points beyond Wednesday's move. On core inflation, the committee took down its projection to 2.6%, a 0.2 percentage point reduction from June. In fact, the last time the monthly hiring rate was this low – 3.5% as a share of the labor force – the unemployment rate was above 6%. At his press conference following the July meeting, Powell remarked that a 50 basis point cut was "not something we're thinking about right now."

Persons: Michelle Bowman, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve, Market, Dow Jones, Fed, Gross, Atlanta Fed

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