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CNBC Daily Open: All eyes on U.S. elections
  + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. History forecasts a market rally after electionsHistorically, stocks have mostly risen after a presidential election, though there can be some short-term volatility. The three major U.S. benchmarks on average have almost always clocked gains between Election Day and year-end, going back to 1980, according to CNBC data. Markets slip ahead of Election DayStocks fell Monday as investors awaited the U.S. presidential election and Fed rate verdict later this week.
Persons: Wall, aren't, Stocks, Jeff Bezos Organizations: CNBC, JPMorgan, Fitch, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Intelligence, Investors, Amazon, U.S, Conference Board Locations: U.S, Francisco
Steel stocks would likely outperform under if former President Donald Trump returns to the White House, while clean energy providers might rally if Vice President Kamala Harris captures the presidency, according to JPMorgan. Clean Energy In the same 14-page report, JPMorgan shared the name of specific companies that are likely to benefit should either candidate prevail. Steel and aluminum Conversely, Peterson is bullish on steel and aluminum companies if former President Trump gets a second term. Shares of steel producer Nucor have tumbled nearly 18% in 2024 but could bounce back under a Trump victory, according to JPMorgan. Other potential winners under a Trump presidency include aluminum producer Kaiser Aluminum and rare-earth materials processor MP Materials , said JPMorgan.
Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris, Bill Peterson, Peterson, EBITDA, William Grippin, Trump, Morgan Stanley, Carlos De, Martin Englert Organizations: White, JPMorgan, Trump, EV, Department of Energy's, Office, Democratic, UBS, DOE, Power, Energy, Republican, Steel, Nippon Steel, U.S . Steel, Seaport Research Partners, Aluminum Locations: Los Angeles, adj, 2H25, Charlotte, Cleveland
In today's big story, a final look at the impact a Harris or Trump presidency will have on your finances . The big storyThe White House and your walletGetty Images; Jenny Chang-Rodriguez/BIOn the eve of election day, we're offering a final breakdown of how both candidates might affect your wallet. Let's get into it:Investing : The corporate tax rate is the major difference between the two sides that'll likely have the biggest impact on markets. Harris wants to raise the corporate tax rate, which would likely have the opposite effect. Cost of things : Both candidates are looking to keep leveraging tariffs, but Trump's policy is much more aggressive.
Persons: , Harris, Trump, let's, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Let's, she's, Mario Tama, Peacock, Chip Somodevilla, Dow, BI's Emma Cosgrove, Siri, We've, Montana Sen, Jon Tester, Colin Allred, Carl Godfrey, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Ella Hopkins, Amanda Yen, Milan Sehmbi Organizations: Business, Service, BI, . Tech, Nvidia, Intel, Dow Jones, Trump, Mario, Fed, Street, CNBC, MSNBC, NBC, Apple Intelligence, WWDC, Apple, Democratic, Texas Rep, Fox Corp, Goodyear, Marriott Locations: Trump, New York, London
Judith Kent, Jamie Dimon's wife, hit the campaign trail for Kamala Harris on Sunday. Kent went door to door to speak to voters in Lansing, Michigan. AdvertisementJudith Kent, the wife of JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, was out in Michigan canvassing voters for Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris on Sunday. "I have a lot of respect for Jamie Dimon," Trump told the outlet. In addition to Kent, the Harris campaign has won the support of multiple powerful women in business and entertainment alike.
Persons: Judith Kent, Jamie Dimon's, Kamala Harris, Kent, Dimon hasn't, , Jamie Dimon, Dimon, Harris, Maggie Haberman, Walz, Andrew Restuccia, I'm, I've, Donald Trump, Trump, BI's Grace Eliza Goodwin, Taylor Swift, Melinda French Gates, Laurene Powell, Gates Organizations: Service, Democratic, New York Times, Democratic Party, Kent, Harris, Business, JPMorgan, Bloomberg, Bloomberg Businessweek, Truth, Democratic National Committee Locations: Lansing , Michigan, Michigan, Lansing, Maggie Haberman . Michigan, Kent
JPMorgan’s favorite stock picks heading into November
  + stars: | 2024-11-04 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
With the election around the corner, JPMorgan has updated its top ideas list that target growth, income, value and short-selling strategies. Yet, JPMorgan thinks that trajectory can keep going, as it has an overweight rating on the stock with a $300 price target. JPMorgan's overweight rating and target of $1,100 on the name also implies more than 34% upside from here. JPMorgan also highlighted the newly added Regency Centers as one of its growth strategies for the new trading month. Shares have jumped more than 7% this year, and JPMorgan's target implies almost 8% upside from Friday's close, on par with its average target of $77.12.
Persons: JPMorgan's, Carvana, Eli Lilly, David Ricks Organizations: JPMorgan, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Regency Centers, Caterpillar Locations: Carvana
Specifically, he warned about traders taking the 10-year Treasury yield , a bond market benchmark, above 5% — a level it hasn't seen since mid-2007. To be sure, there are myriad reasons why the bond market has been in a state of tumult since mid-September, political considerations of a second Trump term being just one of them. "The bond market could easily nullify the impacts of another rate cut. That's because the bond market believes the Fed is cutting rates by too much, too soon, and is therefore raising long-term inflation expectations. It could carry "higher tariffs and mass deportations, which triggers stagflation in the US including a second inflation spike," the bank said.
Persons: Donald Trump, Chip Somodevilla, Kamala Harris, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Trump, Harris, Kumar, it's, Karen Dynan, Trump's, Peterson, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Fiserv, Republican National Convention, Treasury, Trump, Reserve, Bond, Yardeni Research, Sri, Kumar, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Republicans Locations: Milwaukee , Wisconsin, United States
As China's biggest shopping festival of the year gets underway, analysts are starting to favor Chinese logistics companies as a way to play the online shopping trend. The JPMorgan report initiated coverage of U.S.-listed ZTO Express , which the analysts said is China's largest express parcel player with more than 20% of the market. ZTO YTD mountain ZTO Express shares in the U.S. in 2024. Morgan Stanley is less bullish, rating J & T equal-weight while citing competitive risks in China and potential challenges in Southeast Asia. "Cuts on overseas profitability outlook has weakened our investment thesis," the Morgan Stanley analysts said.
Persons: JD.com, Morgan Stanley, ZTO, Morgan Stanley's, Nomura, Jet Li, Li, Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, YTO Express, STO Express, Yunda, T Global Express Ltd, ZTO's, ZTO Express, J, T Global Express, HK, Nomura, Hong Kong, Hong, CNBC Locations: Hong Kong, U.S, China, Southeast Asia, T Global Express Hong Kong
The major stock benchmarks rallied Friday but were lower last week, with the Nasdaq leading the way lower after reaching new highs. Eight other Club names reported earnings last week, including Eli Lilly and Eaton. Despite indications from Big Tech that Nvidia's AI chips will remain in hot demand, the Club stock fell 4.3% for the week. The S & P 500 , which is less tech-weighted, fell nearly 1.4% for the week, making it back-to-back weekly losses for the broader market index. Earnings After analyzing earnings reports from 14 of our portfolio companies last week, there is only one Club name on the docket this week.
Persons: Eli Lilly, Eaton, Jim Cramer, financials Goldman Sachs, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Trump, That's, Jerome Powell, We're, we'll, Archer, Johnson, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Brendan McDermid Organizations: Nasdaq, Devices, Apple, Microsoft, Big Tech, Club, Nvidia, Dow, Intel, AMD, Dow Jones, Visa, American Express, JPMorgan, Bond, Federal Reserve, Boeing, Treasury, White, DuPont, Election, Protection, Electronics, Industrial, Constellation Energy, Marriott, Century Fox, Wynn Resorts, WYNN, Goodyear Tire, Cirrus, Diamondback Energy, Daniels, Midland, Apollo Global Management, Ferrari, Restaurant Brands, Emerson Electric, Devon Energy, Novo Nordisk, CVS Health, Howmet Aerospace, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, Cedar Fair Entertainment, Toyota, American Electric Power Company, Johnson Controls, Dine Brands, Holdings, AMC Entertainment, Qualcomm, Coty, COTY, Energy, Barrick, Halliburton, HAL, Hershey, Air Products & Chemicals, Warner Bros ., Arista Networks, Rivian Automotive, Trade, Icahn Enterprises, Sony, SONY, Paramount, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange Locations: BlackRock, Florida, China, Sluggishness, Cleveland, New York City, U.S
If Trump wins the election, the Fed could pause rate cuts in December, JPMorgan's David Kelly says. Kelly points to Trump's plans for expansionary fiscal policy that would fuel inflation. Kelly pointed to Trump's plans for an expansionary fiscal policy that would fuel inflation higher and keep rates from coming down. AdvertisementIn that case, the Fed would likely stick to its projected path of policy easing, Kelly said. Advertisement"Once they got some sense of what fiscal policy is going to do, I think that will have some impact on their decision-making.
Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly, Kelly, Harris, , Donald Trump, David Kelly, Trump, Kamala Harris, They're Organizations: Trump, Service, Federal, JPMorgan, Business, Fed
"What's driving price action is undoubtedly the election," Nic Puckrin, CEO and co-founder at crypto education site Coin Bureau, said of the November outlook. BTC.CM= YTD mountain Bitcoin YTD Republican nominee former President Donald Trump has courted the crypto industry this year, presenting himself as the pro-crypto candidate . October and November are historically strong months for bitcoin, finishing higher in seven of the past 11 Novembers. "Volatility has decreased for both gold and bitcoin as traders look forward to the [election] results, although both assets have benefited from positive underlying fundamentals incrementally driving the price up." "The main danger we foresee would be temporary angst around election results affecting sentiment and holding back further development of the ecosystem," Chung added.
Persons: Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, Kamala Harris –, Nic Puckrin, Trump, bitcoin, Donald Trump, Harris, Devin Ryan, there's, Needham's John Todaro, Chris Chung, Chung, Michael Bloom Organizations: Republican, Democratic, Citizens, Trump, bitcoin, JPMorgan, BTC, Solana Locations: Washington, U.S
Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan predict relatively muted S&P 500 returns over the next decade. AdvertisementMuch has been said about the gloomy outlook for the S&P 500 that some of Wall Street's largest investment banks conveyed in recent weeks. Goldman Sachs said in October that the S&P 500 would return 3% annually, on average, over the next 10 years, underperforming current 10-year Treasury yields. Goldman Sachs"There is little argument that U.S. stock market valuations are elevated compared to historical averages. Investors appeared to do that, with the S&P 500 rising 0.4% on Friday to 5,728, 2.3% below all-time highs.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Lance Roberts, Roberts, , It's, Goldman, Sam Kuhn Organizations: JPMorgan, RIA, Service, Bank of America, RIA Advisors, Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: Wall
Nvidia is replacing Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P Dow Jones Indices said Friday. AdvertisementNvidia is joining the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P Dow Jones Indices said on Friday, replacing its rival Intel, which held the position for 25 years. AdvertisementThe Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) will also replace Dow Inc. (DOW) in the index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, or DJIA, is made up of 30 blue-chip companies, from Amazon to Walt Disney Co., and is often used as a benchmark for the broader US economy. Now, with its entrance into the DJIA, it only underlines the mainstream acceptance of Nvidia as a market leader.
Persons: Dow, , Sherwin, missteps, Pat Gelsinger, Jensen Huang, Jensen, Dan Ives, JPMorgan Chase, Johnson, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Nvidia, Intel, Dow Jones, Service, Williams Company, Dow Inc, DOW, Walt Disney Co, Amazon Web Services, Corporate Finance Institute, Microsoft, Walmart, JPMorgan, UnitedHealth, Procter, Gamble Company, Cola Company, Chevron Corporation, Merck, Co, Cisco Systems, McDonald's Corporation, Business Machines Corporation, IBM, American Express Company, Caterpillar, Verizon Communications, Walt Disney Company, Goldman, Honeywell International, Nike, Boeing Company, Intel Corporation, 3M Company, Travelers Companies, Dow Locations: Amazon, Silicon Valley, Susquehanna
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJPMorgan's Michael Feroli expects two 25 bps cuts through year-endMichael Feroli, JPMorgan chief U.S. economist, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the disappointing jobs report and the economy.
Persons: Michael Feroli Organizations: JPMorgan
The S & P 500 fell 1% in October, snapping a five-month advance. Now, Wall Street is coming into what has historically proven a strong month for stocks — which could push stocks to new heights. A CNBC analysis of FactSet data showed November has been the second-strongest month for the S & P 500 going back 10 years. Going back 20 years, the S & P 500 averages a 2.2% increase in November. Elsewhere on Wall Street this morning, analysts reacted to the latest quarterly earnings reports from megacaps Apple and Amazon .
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Goldman Sachs, Michael Ng, Doug Anmuth, Anmuth Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, CNBC, U.S, NBC, Apple Locations: U.S
Investors have been heavily buying two very different categories of assets ahead of next week's election: bonds and bitcoin . Bank of America credit strategist Yuri Seliger highlighted a shift toward bond buying among fund investors over the past week. A look at the list of most popular ETFs on FactSet over the past week shows that the demand for bonds has been broad across categories. Funds for investment grade corporate bonds, municipal bonds, mortgage backed securities, long-term Treasury bonds and high yield bonds are all in the top 20 funds by inflows over the past week. The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) has raked in more than $2 billion of inflows over the past week, according to FactSet.
Persons: Yuri Seliger, Seliger, outflows Organizations: Bank of, HG, HY, Bank of America, , JPMorgan
Wall Street analysts think Amazon is only at the beginning of a new era of growth. Here's what analysts at some of the biggest shops on Wall Street are saying about Amazon's latest earnings report. His $250 per share price target implies more than 34% upside from Thursday's close. "Another margin upside surprise supports our retail margin efficiency upside thesis, while AWS is still in the early innings of a big AI cycle and is investing accordingly," Post said. The analyst also increased his 2025 full-year earnings per share forecast by roughly 4%.
Persons: Doug Anmuth, Anmuth, Justin Post, Lee Horowitz, " Horowitz, Ronald Josey's, Josey Organizations: Web Services, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Citi
A handful of stocks have momentum behind them heading into their quarterly results next week. With roughly 64% of S & P 500 companies reporting results thus far, they've collectively posted earnings growth of more than 9%. Analysts have increased their earnings forecasts for DuPont by more than 23% over the past six months and 29% over the past six months. Of all the stocks, analysts are most optimistic on Constellation Energy . Earnings forecasts over the past three months have surged 215%, faster than the 163% increase seen in the trailing six months.
Persons: they've, Wolfe, Chris Parkinson, Parkinson, JPMorgan Chase, Jeremy Tonet, Tonet Organizations: Analysts, DuPont, Constellation Energy, CNBC Pro, Wolfe Research, PFAS, JPMorgan, Howmet Aerospace, Emerson Electric
Wall Street's bullish sentiment on Microsoft hasn't faded, even after the tech giant forecast disappointing revenue growth numbers. The company's revenue increased 16% year over year in the quarter, and its net income rose 11% during the period compared to the year-ago quarter. That forecast led shares to slip nearly 4% in premarket trading, despite the company's strong earnings performance. That would be the company's fastest ever AI-related revenue growth rate. Barclays, which has one of the lowest price objectives on Wall Street, said it sees Microsoft shares being "range bound" in the short term.
Persons: Morgan Stanley —, Bernstein, Morgan Stanley, Keith Weiss, Weiss, Kirk Materne, Materne, Raimo Lenschow Organizations: Microsoft, LSEG, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Barclays, Citi, 25X, Investors Locations: Wells
There could be additional upside to bitcoin and gold if former President Trump emerges victorious in next week's election, according to JPMorgan. Spot bitcoin ETFs saw $1.3 billion of new investor money in the first two days of this week, Panigirtzoglou noted. Meme and AI-related tokens are also outperforming the overall crypto market in another measure of retail investors' aniumal spirits. Bitcoin futures have become "rather overbought" and could face vulnerability "going forward." The picture is similar for gold, where retail investors continue to buy gold ETFs while activity in gold futures shows a pause.
Persons: Trump, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Kamala Harris, Panigirtzoglou, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, Retail, Trump, Republican, Democratic
Wall Street faces another key litmus test Thursday with results from megacap technology giants Apple and Amazon . For Apple, Wall Street also wants to see its latest iPhone pick up steam, and investors seek more insight into when the company's AI initiative will begin lifting sales. For Apple, Wall Street expects EPS of $1.60 on $94.58 billion in revenue. Amazon's retail business also remains top of mind for Wall Street ahead of the busy holding shopping period. Apple For Apple, Wall Street is eagerly searching for signs of strong demand for its latest iPhone model and updates on its AI strategy.
Persons: Jason Helfstein, Brent Thill, Bank of America's Justin Post, Doug Anmuth, Goldman Sachs, Eric Sheridan, Ronald Josey, Morgan Stanley, Erik Woodring, Jefferies, Edison Lee, Samik Chatterjee, Davidson's Gil Luria, Wamsi Mohan, Tim Long, AAPL, Long Organizations: Apple, Nasdaq, Microsoft, Wall, LSEG, Amazon, StreetAccount, Jefferies, Bank of America's, Apple Intelligence, " Bank of America, Barclays Locations: Amazon
Currently, more than 80% of India's energy needs are met by coal, oil and solid biomass, according to the International Energy Agency. On the demand side, the Indian government has aggressively pushed policies that favor vehicles powered by compressed natural gas (CNG), a derivative of liquified natural gas (LNG). Meanwhile, the number of households that could receive piped natural gas is more than 300 million. For instance, natural gas is a crucial ingredient for making fertilizers, and manufacturing it domestically helps increase food security. Seth is also optimistic about India's growth rate for its third and fourth quarters despite slower capital expenditure in some states.
Persons: Punit Paranjpe, Francis Mascarenhas, They're, Maruti Suzuki, GAIL, MGL, of Home Affairs Amit Shah, David Morrison, Shah, Ajay Seth, Seth, Aravind Maiya, Embassy REITs, Maiya, Landsberg Bennett, Michael Landsberg, Landsberg Organizations: Gas, Private, Afp, Getty, International Energy Agency, Energy, Reuters, Maruti, Institute for Energy Economics, Rystad Energy, Citi, JPMorgan, Gujarat Gas, of Home Affairs, Foreign, Department of Economic, Reserve Bank of India, CNBC, Embassy, Fortune, Wealth Locations: Dhamra, Bhadrak district, India's Odisha, India, Europe, Ukraine, Moscow, Russia, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Pune, Gujarat, Canada, U.S
JPMorgan's trading desk has some ideas on how much the stock market might move following Friday's all-important job report. Between 120,000 and 200,000 jobs added; 30% chance: This is the so-called Goldilocks print. The S & P 500 should finish the day somewhere between flat and up 0.5%. Below 20,000 jobs added; 5% chance: This should catalyze a large sell-off as a negative nonfarm payrolls print typically front runs a recession. The S & P 500 should pull back somewhere within the range of 0.75% and 1.5%.
Persons: payrolls, Dow Jones Organizations: Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Equity
High-net-worth sports fans can now invest in an index of companies tied to their favorite league. AdvertisementSports fans with money to spare can now reap returns from their favorite leagues thanks to a new investment offering from Morgan Stanley. The Parametric Custom Core Sports League strategy is a portfolio that allows high-net-worth fans to invest a minimum of $250,000 in an index of companies tied to major sports leagues. The offering involves 13 of the biggest sports leagues, from the NFL and NBA to the US Open and Formula 1. Last year, Goldman Sachs unveiled a new unit of dealmakers to pitch investments in teams and stadiums to wealthy clients.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, , Sandra Richards, Morgan Stanley's, Richards, Marc Lasry, Steve Cohen, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Wall, Service, League, NFL, NBA, US, Women's, Morgan Stanley's Global Sports, Entertainment Division, CNBC, Nielsen Sports, Sports, PGA, Yankees, Citi, JPMorgan
Here are the biggest calls on Wall Street on Thursday: Goldman Sachs reiterates Microsoft as buy Goldman says the stock remains extremely attractive following earnings on Wednesday. Bank of America reiterates as Meta as buy Meta remains a "top AI pick" following earnings on Wednesday. Deutsche Bank downgrades Kraft Heinz to hold from buy Deutsche says it sees "reduced growth" following earnings. BTIG upgrades Wingstop to buy from neutral BTIG said investors should buy the dip following earnings on Wednesday. "We are upgrading shares of Wingstop to Buy from Neutral with a $370 price target following the post-earnings selloff in shares yesterday."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Al, Oppenheimer, Wolfe, Bernstein, it's, JPMorgan downgrades Brinker, Morgan Stanley downgrades Biogen, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank downgrades Kraft Heinz, KBW, Wells, Wells Fargo, L3Harris Organizations: Microsoft, Bank of America, Meta, JPMorgan, Chili's, Corp, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche, Walmart, Technologies, of America Locations: Robinhood, 4Q24, OW
CFRA trimmed its Amazon price target to $219 a share on October 21, indicating 13% upside ahead. The firm has a "buy" rating on the stock and a $210 price target, which implies an 8.3% gain from current levels. The firm said investors have toned down margin expectations due to Amazon's spending in new investment areas, such as Project Kuiper. AdvertisementWedbush reiterated its "outperform" rating and $225 price target, implying a 16% gain from current levels. Morgan Stanley has a $210 price target for the stock, representing upside of about 8% from Wednesday's share price.
Persons: , Arun Sundaram, Sundaram, Justin Post, BofA, Scott Devitt, Wedbush, Morgan Stanley, Bullish, Brian Nowak Organizations: Service, CFRA, Bank of America, Amazon Web Services, 3Q, JPMorgan, Wedbush Securities
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