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☆ Dollar bears bide their time as US economic strength persists
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Fund managers in the latest BofA Global Research survey named shorting the dollar as the market's third "most crowded" trade. The dollar is "in a very messy transition from bull market to a bear market," said Aaron Hurd, senior portfolio manager, currency, at State Street Global Advisors. Hurd expects the dollar to remain buoyant over the very short term, but decline steadily over the next few years. Most investors believe the dollar will likely remain elevated until U.S. data turns decidedly weaker, allowing the Fed to cut rates. "The dollar strength is entirely related to the fact that U.S. data is actually pretty good," said Alvise Marino, a strategist at Credit Suisse.

Persons: Aaron Hurd, Hurd, Alvise Marino, Bipan Rai, Christine Lagarde, Brian Rose, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Leslie Adler Organizations: YORK, Futures Trading Commission, Fund, Research, Street Global Advisors, Bears, Federal Reserve, Fed, Traders, Credit Suisse, Reuters, U.S . Treasury, CIBC, UBS Global Wealth Management, European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: U.S, North America, Europe

May 28 (Reuters) - Global investors are gaming out how a tentative deal to raise the United States debt ceiling could ripple through markets, as lawmakers strive to pass the agreement through Congress before a June 5 deadline. U.S. five-year credit default swaps narrowed, meaning that the cost of insuring against exposure to a U.S. debt default fell. “The debt ceiling agreement is only the first step in saving the government from the brink of illiquidity.”The deal suspends the debt ceiling until January 2025 in exchange for caps on spending and cuts in government programs. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Friday set a deadline for raising the federal debt limit, saying the government would default if Congress does not increase the debt ceiling by June 5. Optimism that a debt ceiling deal was near and hefty gains in AI-related stocks helped the S&P 500 (.SPX) close at its highest level since August 2022 on Friday.

“The debt ceiling agreement is only the first step in saving the government from the brink of illiquidity.”The deal suspends the debt ceiling until January 2025 in exchange for caps on spending and cuts in government programs. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Friday set a deadline for raising the federal debt limit, saying the government would default if Congress does not increase the debt ceiling by June 5. Optimism that a debt ceiling deal was near and hefty gains in AI-related stocks helped the S&P 500 (.SPX) close at its highest level since August 2022 on Friday. S&P Global Ratings stripped the United States of its coveted top rating over a debt ceiling showdown in 2011, a few days after a last-minute agreement the agency at the time said did not stabilize "medium-term debt dynamics." S&P Global Ratings, Fitch and Moody's did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment.

☆ Analysis: Options investors guard against U.S. stock tumble, despite buoyant markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 30, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermidNEW YORK, May 10 (Reuters) - Options market demand for insurance against a stock market crash has soared to multi-month highs, even as equities have calmed down after a choppy start to the year. U.S. stock market volatility has subsided as the S&P 500 (.SPX) has logged a 7% year-to-date gain. Though stock market gyrations have subsided in recent weeks from levels hit during the regional banks crisis, investors see plenty of catalysts for volatility ahead. Institutional investors' stock exposure has inched higher after slumping in 2022 to a decade low, excluding the COVID-19 market crash of March 2020, Deutsche Bank data showed.

☆ Options investors guard against US stock tumble, despite buoyant markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, May 2 (Reuters) - The cost of insuring against further losses in regional U.S. bank stocks stood near a one-month high in options markets on Wednesday, even as shares of lenders saw a reprieve from their recent sell-off. Skew on the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF - a gauge of relative demand for puts versus calls - remained elevated, hovering near the highest level since the COVID-19 market slump, data from OptionMetrics showed. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF rose about 1.9% to 39.64 in afternoon trade, though it is down 33% on the year and fell on Monday and Tuesday. "The fact that you didn't see the follow-through from some of these other regional banks, with what would appear to be such great news, really didn't inspire a lot of confidence in some of these regional banks," said Seth Hickle, a derivatives portfolio manager at Innovative Portfolios, referring to JPMorgan’s rescue of First Republic. "The problem with regionals are going to be rising interest rates,” said Matt Amberson, principal at options analytics firm ORATS.

Though stocks remain near their 2023 highs, some investors now believe those factors will soon start taking a greater toll, limiting further upside. The market may be "back in the soup on the banking crisis," said Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services. Many investors don’t expect that calm to continue, as a battle over raising the $34 trillion U.S. debt ceiling looms. In the six rate-hiking cycles since 1984, the S&P 500 has posted an average three-month return of 8% following the peak funds rate, Goldman Sachs strategists wrote. However, the S&P 500 is already trading well above its valuation at the end of any cycle except the one ending in 2000, when the S&P 500 declined despite a Fed pause, the bank said.

NEW YORK, May 1 (Reuters) - The weekend rescue of troubled lender First Republic Bank (FRC.N) has done little to allay options traders' concerns about the overall health of U.S. regional banks. Traders who had bought upside calls on regional banks on Friday appeared to be exiting those positions as the regulator-engineered rescue of First Republic failed to catalyze a rally in the mid-cap bank sector. SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF shares were down 2% at $41.70 in afternoon trading. At the individual stock level, traders were focused on regional lender PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) on Monday. With PacWest shares down 7%, put options, typically used for bearish bets, outnumbered call options, usually employed for bullish bets, 4-to-1, according to Trade Alert data.

NEW YORK, April 28 (Reuters) - Bearish options traders are ramping up bets on further declines in the beaten-down shares of First Republic Bank (FRC.N), though strategists say they could run into trouble cashing in their wagers if the bank goes into receivership. Profitable put options are typically automatically exercised by selling underlying shares - either already owned by the investors or newly purchased - at a profit. But brokers might restrict share sales when a stock is halted, keeping investors from reaping gains. Some traders found this out the hard way when they ran into trouble cashing in bearish options bets on failed lenders SVB Financial Group and Signature Bank. The Options Clearing Corp and brokerages Charles Schwab, Robinhood, Interactive Brokers and Fidelity did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

☆ Analysis: Debt ceiling worries bubble up in US stock options market
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, April 26 (Reuters) - Worries over a debt ceiling showdown are creeping into U.S. options markets, as investors grow increasingly concerned that lawmakers will be unable to hammer out a deal in coming weeks, potentially sparking stock volatility as a key deadline nears. In the options market, however, worries are bubbling as some analysts warn the so-called X-date, after which the government is no longer able to pay all its bills, could come in the first half of June. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday warned that failure by Congress to raise the government's debt ceiling - and the resulting default - would trigger an "economic catastrophe" that would send interest rates higher for years to come. AWKWARD TIMINGLegislative standoffs over debt limits this last decade have largely been resolved before they could ripple out into markets. "You are going to have all these fundamental pressures -- and then our friends in Washington aren't going to be able to agree on what to do with the debt ceiling," he said.

☆ Debt ceiling worries bubble up in US stock options market
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

☆ Analysis: Bearish fundamentals, buoyant charts complicate outlook for US stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Technical indicators such as equity price movement largely show stocks are poised to continue a rally that has seen the S&P 500 climb 8% year-to-date, analysts who track them said. TECHNICALLY SPEAKINGThe S&P 500 (.SPX) has traded in a 9.7 percentage point range year-to-date, its narrowest range for comparable periods since 2017. Johnson, who has a year-end S&P 500 target of 4,625, is encouraged by the reversals in downtrends for many U.S. stock indexes. The S&P 500 has traded higher 83% of the time for the full year, returning an average 13.73%, when it hasn't dropped below the preceding year’s December low in the first quarter, a Piper Sandler analysis showed. The S&P 500 is trading at about 18 times 12-month forward earnings estimates compared to its long-term average P/E of 15.6 times, according to Refinitiv Datastream.

REUTERS/Brendan McDermidNEW YORK, April 20 (Reuters) - A debt ceiling fight is looming in the U.S. yet again, giving investors another worry for markets this year. Here is a Q&A about the implications for markets:WHAT IS THE DEBT CEILING? The debt ceiling is the maximum amount the U.S. government can borrow to meet its financial obligations. Outstanding government debt, nominal gross domestic product and federal limit to borrowWHEN WILL THE U.S. HIT THE DEBT CEILING? Some Treasury bills (T-bills) are featuring a premium in their yields that may be tied to an elevated default risk, according to some analysts.

JPMorgan, the biggest U.S. lender by assets, reported a first-quarter profit that beat estimates with interest income offseting weakness in dealmaking. PNC shares were last down 1.9% while Zions was off 3.3% and Comerica Inc (CMA.N) shares fell 3.0%. First Republic shares fell 1.5%. Citi shares rose 4.2% and Bank of America was up 3.0% as their investors appeared to be encouraged by JPM's news. Morgan Stanley shares rose 0.9% while Goldman shares were up 1.1%.

☆ Take Five: How bad is it?
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

China and Britain release key economic data and officials from the Group of Seven nations talk climate goals. 1/ EARNINGS RECESSIONU.S. earnings season goes up a gear and the outlook is gloomy due to the regional banking crisis and the most aggressive monetary policy tightening in decades. Analysts expect Q1 S&P 500 earnings to fall 5.2% from the year-ago period, Refinitiv I/B/E/S data as of April 7 showed. In a sign of which way the authorities want lending rates to head, smaller regional banks have already cut deposit rates. China GDP vs 1-year MLF rate4/ NO ALARMS, NO SURPRISESIt's a big week for UK data, with February jobs figures on Tuesday and March inflation numbers Wednesday.

☆ Analysis: Gloomy U.S. bank sector could yield payoff for contrarian options bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

While the S&P 500 index (.SPX) has advanced 6% since mid-March, when the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) sparked tumult in the banking sector, investors have been more wary of financial stocks. The S&P 500 Banks Group (.SPXBK) is up just 3% from its March low and remains down 14% for the year. The pervasive gloom around financial stocks has increased the cost for investors betting on more downside while making it relatively inexpensive to bet on a rebound. For investors who believe financial earnings and guidance will come in better than expected, Elevation Securities recommended buying Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF.P) call options at the 33 strike. "Given how beaten up bank stocks are, buying calls into earnings can make sense," said Michael Purves, chief executive officer at Tallbacken Capital Advisors.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead US inflation data to test market’s bets on future Fed easing
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Following last month’s banking crisis, investors have become more convinced the Federal Reserve will cut rates in the second half to ward off an economic downturn. That view could gain support if next week’s inflation reading shows a strong rise in consumer prices even after aggressive Fed rate hikes over the past year. The firm is recommending clients slightly underweight equities, expecting interest rate hikes to hit consumer spending and corporate profits. Bets on a more dovish Fed have boosted tech and growth stocks, whose future profits are discounted less when interest rates fall. “If the Fed was trying to protect investors, one way would be to cut rates," Hackett said.

☆ Dollar advances after US nonfarm payrolls data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Prior to the jobs report, the rate futures market had been betting that the Fed would pause at the May policy meeting. The market has now priced in a 68% chance the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps). Friday's data showed there were 236,000 new jobs in March, in line with forecasts of 239,000. Data for February was revised higher to show 326,000 jobs were added instead of 311,000 as previously reported. Against the yen, the dollar was up 0.3% at 132.075 yen while the euro was 0.2% weaker at $1.0905 .

☆ Dollar pares gains vs euro after U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

[1/2] U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationNEW YORK, March 31 (Reuters) - The dollar pared gains against the euro on Friday after U.S. data showed personal consumption expenditure growth slowed in February, supporting hopes of a softer monetary policy approach from the Federal Reserve. The euro was 0.17% lower at $1.08855 after the data. Earlier in the session data showed euro zone inflation dropped by the most on record in March, but core price pressures, which exclude food and energy, accelerated, maintaining pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep raising rates. The data has left markets positioned for more rate rises in the euro zone than in the United StatesReporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Editing by Sharon SingletonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Explainer: How a massive options trade by a JP Morgan fund can move markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

read moreWHAT IS THE JP MORGAN HEDGED EQUITY FUND? The JPMorgan Hedged Equity Fund holds a basket of S&P 500 (.SPX) stocks along with options on the benchmark index and resets hedges once a quarter. For the year, the fund was down 10.66% through September 28, compared with a 21% decline for the S&P 500 Total return Index (.SPXTR). On June 30, the refresh of the fund's options positions involved about 140,000 S&P 500 options contracts in all, including S&P 500 puts at strikes 3580 and 3020 and calls at 4005, all for the September 30 expiry. Options dealers - typically big financial institutions that facilitate trading but seek to remain market-neutral - take the other side of the fund's options trades.

☆ Dollar rebounds as banking fears fade; yen falls on quarter-end flows
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, March 29 (Reuters) - The dollar rose against most major peers on Wednesday, reversing some of its recent declines, and gained sharply against the yen, which was volatile as the end of the Japanese fiscal year approaches. Improving risk sentiment and investor hopes that central banks can once again turn their attention toward fighting inflation was helping support the dollar, Given said. The dollar rose to a one-week high against the yen, which remained volatile in the run-up to the end of the Japanese fiscal year on Friday. "A decent amount of USD/JPY flow today is end of quarter related," Monex USA's Given said. The dollar was 1.37% higher at 132.71 yen .

☆ Dollar firmer as banking fears fade; yen sinks on quarter-end flows
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"The dollar is trading mixed today with a bit of upside as global risk sentiment improves and central banks can turn their attention back toward inflation," Given said. The dollar rose to a one-week high against the yen , which remained volatile in the run-up to the end of the Japanese fiscal year on Friday. "A decent amount of USD/JPY flow today is end of quarter related," Monex USA's Given said. "Traders are concerned with real money outcomes at the moment, but as global risk sentiment continues to improve, JPY as a traditional haven looks less appealing," she said. The dollar was 1.03% higher at 132.275 yen.

☆ For battered U.S. bank shares, earnings may make or break
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Even so, the S&P 500 bank index (.SPXBK) is down 16% since March 8, two days before Silicon Valley's collapse, with the failure of Signature Bank and problems at other banks adding to the turmoil. Some say quarterly results could be key to what happens next with bank shares. Among other financials, Jefferies Financial Group (JEF.N) is expected to report quarterly results after the closing bell Tuesday. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to fall 4.6% in the first quarter of 2023 from the year-ago period. They are forecasting S&P 500 financials (.SPSY) to post year-over-year earnings growth in the first quarter of 5.4%, making it among just four sectors whose earnings are expected to climb.

☆ Analysis: As worries over banks swirl, investors seek protection against market crash
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500 is down 5% from its early February high though it remains up 3% year to date. ... Now the downside tail has a lot more risk priced into it," said Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna. Volatility in the Cboe Volatility Index (.VIX), which reflects expectations of stock volatility, has been muted by comparison, though the index hit a five-month high earlier this week. "That is something worth monitoring closely to gauge the expansion of risk within the system," he said. Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Mark PorterOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Credit Suisse plunge sends traders flocking to its U.S-listed options
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

That made Credit Suisse the fourth most heavily traded single-stock name in the U.S. options market on Wednesday. The surge in trading followed a near 31% tumble in Credit Suisse shares on Wednesday after Saudi National Bank (SNB) (1180.SE), which holds 9.88% of Credit Suisse (CSGN.S), said it would not buy more shares on regulatory grounds. Trading in Credit Suisse puts outnumbered that in its call options 1.7-to-1. "There's a lot of moving parts in the Credit Suisse trade right now with respect to a major credit event, European bank contagion, and the possibility of ECB intervention," said Steven Place, an independent options trader in Destin, Florida. For SPDR S&P regional banking ETF (KRE.P), the options trading action was a mix of investors taking profits on existing hedges while putting on new defensive positions, Susquehanna's Murphy said.

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