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☆ US durable goods orders beat expectations; core capital goods rebound
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Durable goods are seen on sale in a store in Los Angeles, California, U.S., March 24, 2017. Part of the surprise increase in durable goods orders reported by the Commerce Department on Wednesday, however, likely reflected higher prices as inflation picked up last month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast durable goods orders falling 0.5% last month. These so-called core capital goods orders were previously reported to have edged up 0.1% in July. Core capital goods shipments rebounded 0.7% after falling 0.3% in July.

Persons: Lucy Nicholson, Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Commerce Department, BMO Capital Markets, Reuters, Machinery, Institute, Supply, PMI, United Auto Workers, General Motors Co, Ford, Thomson Locations: Los Angeles , California, U.S, WASHINGTON, Toronto, muddle

☆ A 31-year market vet shares 2 signals that show a recession is still on the way — and warns the S&P 500 still has 48% downside as valuations remain near the richest levels in history
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-23 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

One is that the Institute for Supply Management's Purchasing Managers' Index continues to show signs of slowing economic growth. "Real GDI has never fallen three quarters in a row without the economy being in a recession," Wolfenbarger said. This partially informs his call for the S&P 500 to fall to around 2,250, which would represent 48% downside from current levels. When it comes to Wolfenbarger's 48% sell-off call, it's well outside the mainstream of where strategists see stocks going. With valuations high, a meaningful recession could make that three times, as Wolfenbarger is warning.

Persons: Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, Costa, Louis, Warren Buffett Organizations: JPMorgan, Bull, Institute for Supply Management's, Crescat, Federal Reserve Bank of St, downturns . Federal Reserve Bank of St Locations: downturns .

☆ 'We are becoming more convinced that the cracks are emerging': JPMorgan warns a host of recession risks are starting to pile up — and shares 2 trades to keep your portfolio safe
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Another is the still-inverted Treasury yield curve, meaning yields on shorter-duration government bonds are higher than those with longer durations. Inversions of the 3-month and 10-year yields have preceded every recession since the 1960s without producing a false signal. The Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) offer exposure to energy stocks. The Consumer Price Index, a main measure of inflation, rose to 3.7% year-over-year in August compared to 3.2% in July. Investors can gain exposure to short-term government bonds through TreasuryDirect, their brokerage, or through ETFs like the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH).

Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Michael Feroli, Cash Organizations: for Supply Management, Bank of America, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Federal, Energy, Vanguard Energy Locations: China, TreasuryDirect

☆ One sector outperforms the stock market 100% of the time when an economic recovery begins, Bank of America says. Where to invest now, and 5 reasons why the downturn phase is over.
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Mark Reeth | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

What happens to the US economy nextBank of America's economic indicator has made a sudden pivot upwards, from the lows of a "downturn" phase into the gradual strengthening of a "recovery" phase. Rising inflation indicates improving economic conditions. Rising inflation indicates improving economic conditions. A rising Z-Score indicates improving economic conditions. A rising Z-Score indicates improving economic conditions.

Persons: it's, Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, Jan, Staples underperformed, Bank of America Subramanian, Dev Organizations: Bank of America, Bank of, Thomson, PMI, Supply Management Manufacturing, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Survey, Conference Board, Bond, ICE, Utilities, Health Care, Fed, of America

☆ America is in a factory boom again. Even a recession may not bring it down this time
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-09 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

A few days before Biden’s speech in Maine, the Fed approved raising interest rates to their highest level in more than 22 years, continuing an aggressive inflation-busting campaign. Customers are also being pinched with higher interest rates,” a food, beverage and tobacco products manufacturer told the ISM in its August survey. “When we built our first building, interest rates were around 14% or so, and that was in the early ’80s,” she said. “We’ve seen some plans go on hold or on a slower burn until those companies see what happens with interest rates and the economy,” he said. Recession or not, the bull case for US manufacturing has the industry — and Biden — in a good mood.

Persons: Kathie Leonard, Leonard, —, ”, ” Leonard, Joe Biden, “, ’ ” Leonard, Biden, Charles Krupa, Paul Krugman, Goldman Sachs, It’s, Scott Paul, Paul, it’s, Auburn Manufacturing’s Leonard, “ we’ve, Julianna Keeling, Lou Pektor, “ We’ve, Jennifer Harris, bode Organizations: DC CNN, Maine Department of Economic, Community Development, Auburn Manufacturing, CNN, Auburn Manufacturing Inc, AP, Commerce Department, Fed, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Alliance for American Manufacturing, PMI, ISM, Labor Department, Auburn, Manufacturers, Fed Companies, National Economic Council, National Security Council Locations: Washington, Maine, Portland, Auburn , Maine, United States, Pointe, Lehigh

☆ Higher-for-longer rate bets lift dollar, sap stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Long-term Treasury yields hovered at a two-week high of nearly 4.28% and close to last month's post-financial crisis highs. "It all goes back to the discussion of where that magical neutral rate happens to be," he said. "While the markets are still feeling around for where that rate may be, it's going to weigh on equities and support the U.S. The dollar index - which measures the currency against six developed-market peers, including the yen and euro - ticked up 0.07% to 104.93. Reporting by Marc Jones; Additional reporting by Kevin Buckland in Tokyo; Editing by Susan FentonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Robert Alster, Brent, Europe's, hasn't, Kyle Rodda, Kit Juckes, Marc Jones, Kevin Buckland, Susan Fenton Organizations: Tokyo Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S, for Supply Management, Federal, Asset Management, Japan's Nikkei, Reuters, Traders, Federal Reserve, Capital.com, U.S ., Treasury, Generale, People's Bank of China, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Europe, U.S, New York, Asia, Melbourne, China

Shares slipped Thursday in Asia as China reported weaker global demand hit its trade in August, adding to pressures on its economy. Investors have been hoping that the Fed might moderate interest rate increases going forward as inflation has been easing for months. Wall Street expects the Fed to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at its next meeting later in September. Economic updates last week on consumer confidence, jobs and inflation reinforced those hopes. Wall Street will get several more economic updates on inflation and retail sales later in September ahead of the Fed’s next meeting.

Persons: Australia's, Stephen Innes, “, Brent Organizations: Nikkei, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Apple, Nvidia, Fed, Institute, Supply, Management, Treasury, Federal, Investors, New York Mercantile Exchange, U.S Locations: Asia, China, Seoul

The prospect of higher rates put particular pressure on growth stocks with the S&P 500 growth index (.IGX) underperforming the benchmark throughout the session. "Growth stocks have been pricing in the idea that inflation has been well anchored and that the Fed's going to cut. The S&P 500 showed little reaction to the Fed's "Beige Book" snapshot of the U.S. economy a week ahead of the keenly awaited August inflation data and the Fed's rate decision on Sept. 20. The report showed "modest" U.S. economic growth in recent weeks while job growth was "subdued," and inflation slowed in most parts of the country. The S&P 500 posted six new 52-week highs and 25 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 34 new highs and 174 new lows.

Persons: Lockheed Martin, Carol Schleif, Schleif, Susan Collins, Patrick Kaser, Mike Segar, advancers, Sinéad Carew, Shristi, Vinay Dwivedi, Richard Chang Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Institute for Supply Management, Traders, Federal Reserve, Boston, Equity, Brandywine Global, Apple Inc, Wall, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow Jones, Energy, Lockheed, NYSE, Thomson Locations: China, Minneapolis, Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, New York, Bengaluru

Raindrops hang on a sign for Wall Street outside the New York Stock Exchange in Manhattan in New York City, New York, U.S., October 26, 2020. "Every Fed governor comes out and says they look for the data and that data point today is definitely something that's a little bit more inflationary." Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 2.14-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 2.06-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded three new 52-week highs and 24 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 32 new highs and 119 new lows. Reporting by Shristi Achar A and Amruta Khandekar in Bengaluru Editing by Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Mike Segar, Martin, Joe Saluzzi, Susan Collins, megacaps, Johnson, Lockheed Martin, Shristi Achar, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: Wall, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Apple, Institute for Supply Management, Traders, Themis, Boston, Nvidia, Treasury, Healthcare, Johnson, HSBC, thefly.com, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Lockheed, NYSE, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, China, Chatham , New Jersey, Bengaluru

☆ Asia stocks slip, dollar firms on growth concerns, Fed outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( Kane Wu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Androniki Christodoulou/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsHONG KONG, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Asia stocks fell on Wednesday after faltering growth in China and Europe heightened concerns about global economic momentum, while the dollar firmed as investors weighed the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rates. MSCI's gauge of Asia Pacific stocks outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) dipped 0.45%. "The China decline was bigger than expected," said Redmond Wong, Greater China market strategist at Saxo Markets. Manufacturing data from Germany, Britain and the euro zone also showed declines, while their service sectors fell into contraction. "The Europe data were rather weak.

Persons: Androniki, HSI, Redmond Wong, Wong, Australia's, Christopher Waller, John Milroy, Ord Minnett, Brent, Kane Wu, Edmund Klamann, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Saxo Markets, Nikkei, U.S, BlackRock Investment Institute, Institute for Supply Management, PMI, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, HONG KONG, Asia, China, Europe, London, U.S, 0520GMT, Asia Pacific, Greater China, Germany, Britain, BlackRock, ., Saudi Arabia, Russia

Crude oil prices pushed higher, adding to inflationary pressures at a time when investors are hoping to see central banks back away from interest rate hikes. Energy stocks rose along with crude oil prices after Saudi Arabia and Russia said they will extend their voluntary production cut of 1 million barrels of oil a day through the end of the year. Much of the information fueled hopes that the Fed might moderate interest rate increases to fight inflation, which has been easing for months. Wall Street expects the Fed to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at its next meeting later in September, just as it did at its previous meeting. The central bank has raised its main interest rate aggressively since 2022 to the highest level since 2001.

Persons: ” Stephen Innes, Russell, Cintas, Brent, Kroger, Alex Veiga, Damian J, Troise Organizations: Japan’s Nikkei, Management, Labor, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, New York Stock Exchange, Merck, Co, JPMorgan Chase, Microsoft, Energy, Chevron, New York Mercantile Exchange, Institute for Supply Management, GameStop, Dave, AP Business Locations: Asia, U.S, Seoul, Australia, Shanghai, Saudi Arabia, Russia

☆ Stock futures are little changed as Wall Street shifts focus back to path of interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on August 31, 2023 in New York City. Stock futures were little changed late Wednesday as renewed concern swirled on Wall Street over the course of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, and whether policymakers will enact another hike this year. S&P 500 futures ticked down 0.07% while Nasdaq futures declined 0.1%. While 93% of interest rate traders foresee no change at September's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, expectations of an additional interest rate hike at the November meeting rose above 40%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. GameStop added more than 6% after reporting second-quarter results, while ChargePoint Holdings fell more than 10% after missing revenue estimates.

Persons: Jeffrey Roach Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Apple, Nvidia, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Institute, Supply Management's, LPL, GameStop, ChargePoint Holdings Locations: New York City

☆ Stocks fall, dollar and yields up after US services data
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. Weighing heavily on Wall Street stock indexes, shares of Apple (AAPL.O) fell 3.6% after the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that China had banned officials at central government agencies from using iPhones and other foreign-branded devices for work. Some investors said the data may add to signs that interest rates could remain elevated for longer. The Nasdaq ended more than 1% lower, leading declines on Wall Street. In other data, manufacturing activity in Germany, Britain and the euro zone declined, while their service sectors fell into contraction territory.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Susan Collins, Jeffrey Roach, Caroline Valetkevitch, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Nell Mackenzie, Kane Wu, Edmund Klamann, Sam Holmes, Will Dunham, Sharon Singleton Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S, Apple, Treasury, Wall, Wall Street Journal, Institute for Supply Management, U.S . Federal, Fed Bank of Boston, Nasdaq, . Technology, Dow Jones, LPL, Brent, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, Germany, Britain, New York, London

☆ Rise in services, manufacturing prices spur fear that Fed has more work to do on inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

On Wednesday, the ISM reported that its services prices index for August rose to 58.9%, a four-month high and 2.1 points above the July level. That comes on the heels of the August manufacturing prices reading of 48.4%, which was below the dividing line for expansion but still 5.8 points ahead of July's level. Following the services reading, traders in the fed funds futures market increased the odds for a November Fed rate hike to about 53%, according to the CME Group . That coincided with a jump in the rate-sensitive two-year Treasury yield to 5.033%, and a slide in stocks that sent the S & P 500 down by as much as 0.9%. "With oil and food prices also higher, this [ISM services] report points to a Fed whose job to quell inflation is certainly not yet quite finished."'

Persons: Quincy Krosby, Susan Collins Organizations: Federal Reserve, Institute, Supply, CME Group, Treasury, LPL, Boston

☆ Dollar rises to six-month high after US data; weak yen prompts warning
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The greenback recovered against most currencies after the data, with the euro and sterling hitting three-month lows and the yen touching session troughs. The euro and sterling fell to three-month lows after the data and were last flat at $1.0726 and down 0.5% at $1.2505 , respectively. Data showed the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)'s non-manufacturing PMI rose to 54.5 last month, the highest since February and up from 52.7 in July. Against the yen, the dollar trimmed losses, last down little changed at 147.69 yen. The dollar showed little reaction to the report.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Helen, Susan Collins, Christopher Waller, Waller, Masato Kanda, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Samuel Indyk, Ankur Banerjee, Savio D'Souza, Alexandra Hudson, Josie Kao Organizations: REUTERS, Institute for Supply Management, Reuters, Monex USA, Federal, Fed, Boston, CNBC, Ministry of Finance, Thomson Locations: Washington, U.S, Kanda, London, Singapore

☆ US services sector picked up in August, along with prices
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Jeenah Moon Acquire Licensing RightsSept 6 (Reuters) - The U.S. services sector unexpectedly gained steam in August, with new orders firming and businesses paying higher prices for inputs -- potential signs of still-elevated inflation pressures. A reading above 50 indicates growth in the services industry, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy. Still, Fed policymakers view the services sector as key to bringing inflation down to their 2% target, and Wednesday's ISM report does little to bolster the view that any slowdown is underway. A measure of new orders received by services businesses rose to 57.5 last month from 55.0 in July. A gauge of prices paid by services businesses for inputs increased to 58.9 in August from 56.8 in July.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Ann Saphir, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Institute for Supply Management, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, PMI, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

Chartbook: U.S. manufacturing and energy useIndustrial electricity use and distillate fuel oil consumption are both correlated with the manufacturing and freight cycle and therefore with the purchasing managers index. Distillate fuel oil consumption fell by 1.0% in the three months from April through June compared with the same period a year earlier. The strength of domestic distillate consumption helps explain why fuel oil inventories have remained well below the prior ten-year seasonal average. Resilient electricity and diesel consumption, and the correspondingly low levels of spare generating capacity and distillate inventories, imply the energy system is operating close to its maximum capacity. Related columns:- U.S. diesel prices surge anticipating a soft landing (August 11, 2023)- U.S. manufacturing slowdown fails to rebuild diesel stocks (August 2, 2023)- Depleted U.S. diesel stocks attract hedge funds (July 20, 2023)- U.S. manufacturing slowdown cools energy prices (July 4, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, John Kemp Organizations: REUTERS, Institute, Supply, U.S . Energy Information Administration, EIA, U.S, Thomson, Reuters Locations: IceStone, New York City , New York, U.S

NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks wavered on Wall Street Tuesday as traders return from a long holiday weekend to face a relatively quiet week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 43 points, or 0.1%, to 34,792 as of 11:22 a.m. Eastern. Hong Kong’s benchmark fell 2.1%, as investors sold real estate shares which have gained recently following government efforts to support the ailing industry. Wall Street will also get updates on aspects of the manufacturing sector and consumer credit. Analysts are still concerned about the potential for a recession, but those concerns have lessened as inflation cools and the economy remains resilient.

Persons: — Stocks, Kroger, — Elaine Kurtenbach, Matt Ott Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Labor, Technology, Microsoft, . Union Pacific, Energy, Chevron, Investors, The Institute for Supply Management, GameStop, Dave, Federal Reserve, Treasury Locations: U.S, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Europe, Asia

☆ The Fed likely won’t raise rates this month — but November is another matter
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-03 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Washington, DC CNN —Last week’s economic data increasingly gave investors hope that the Federal Reserve could hold interest rates steady this month, following a hike in July that brought rates to their highest level in 22 years. It’s hard to say definitively if or when the central bank will hike interest rates again this year. The Fed could hold rates steady for the rest of the year if both the job market and the broader economy continue to slow, helping bring down inflation. Higher for longer means keeping interest rates elevated for a prolonged period. China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases August inflation data.

Persons: hasn’t, ” Leslie Thompson, Thompson, Jerome Powell, Powell, Susan Collins, Powell’s Jackson, there’s, Raphael Bostic, Olesya Dmitracova, ” Patrick Hummel, David Lesne, Juan Perez, Carrascosa, Barnes & Noble Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal, Financial, Spectrum Wealth Management, CNN, Fed, Kansas City, Boston, Yahoo, Finance, Atlanta Fed, Volkswagen, Renault, UBS, French, Swiss, Barnes &, The Reserve Bank of Australia, US Commerce Department, Eagle, Express, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Bank of Canada, US Labor Department, Kroger, China’s National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Washington, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Cape Town , South Africa, Europe

☆ 'The vast bulk of companies are in big trouble': A renowned bear who called the dot-com bubble warns a recession is still on the way as bankruptcies rise — threatening to sink even the mega-cap stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-02 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

While big firms have survived high rates, Edwards said a recession would eventually hurt them too. Here are the effective interest rates for a few cohorts of the S&P 1500. The Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey shows 49% of banks are tightening lending standards for small companies. They weren't able to lock into long-term loans at almost zero interest rates and pile it high in the money markets at variable rates," Edwards said. "In our view, the current savings rate is unsustainably low, and the main downside risk to growth is that the savings rate will suddenly move higher."

Persons: Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, Edwards, haven't, Louis, that's, we'll, Brian Rose, Rose, Piper Sandler, it's Organizations: Societe Generale's, Societe Generale, American Bankruptcy Institute, Generale, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Institute, Supply Management's, UBS Americas, UBS Companies

The Labor Department's report showed the unemployment rate rose to 3.8% last month against expectations that it would remain unchanged at 3.5%, while wages advanced 0.2% on a monthly basis, moderating from a 0.4% rise in July. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 187,000 jobs in August, against expectations of 170,000 additions, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Data for July was revised to show 157,000 job additions instead of the 187,000 additions reported before. The payrolls report follows recent data showing a fall in job openings and softer-than-expected private employment growth, both of which signaled weakness in the labor market. Broadcom (AVGO.O) fell 4.5% as the chipmaker projected current-quarter revenue below expectations on softening enterprise demand.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Nonfarm, Rick Meckler, salvos, Rosalind Brewer, decliners, Shristi Achar, Sruthi Shankar, Shounak Dasgupta Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Broadcom, Dell, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Labor, Data, Traders, Cherry Lane Investments, Fed, Institute for Supply Management, Dow Jones, Disney, Charter Communications, ESPN, Charter's, Dell Technologies, Walgreens Boots Alliance, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Bengaluru

☆ US consumer spending is expected to cool further but not fall off a cliff
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-27 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Investors and economists are bullish that consumer spending, the US economy’s main engine, won’t deteriorate too much, which should help stocks avoid a massive sell-off this year. The US Labor Department releases July figures on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Commerce Department releases July data on household spending, income and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The US Labor Department reports the number of new applications for jobless benefits in the week ended Aug. 26. Friday: The US Labor Department releases August figures on the labor market, including monthly payroll gains, wage growth, and the unemployment rate.

Persons: “ We’re, we’ve, ” Matthew Palazzolo, we’re, We’re, ” Palazzolo, pare, It’s, Biden, Jerome Powell, Sinead Colton Grant, Anna Cooban Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, US, Bernstein Private Wealth Management, CNN, Nvidia, Research, Fed, Kansas City, San Francisco Fed, Mellon, International Monetary Fund, Global, US Labor Department, Board, US Commerce Department, National Association of Realtors, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, P Global, Institute for Supply Management Locations: Washington, Wells Fargo, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, American, Germany, Europe, Berlin

☆ Wall Street is declaring victory too early — the US is still headed for a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

In theory, these higher interest rates push down demand and slow inflation by forcing companies to cut prices to attract stretched-thin customers. And Americans have been spending right through the higher interest rates: Personal consumption expenditures and retail sales numbers have continued to forge upward. But eventually, this attitude will wane as people realize that the higher rates aren't a flash in the pan. The Treasury yield curve measures the different interest rates that are paid out on various bonds issued by the US government. It's the same story every time, both Kantrowitz and Rosenberg say: Investors are bad at pricing in a recession before it unfolds.

Persons: Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Milton Friedman, Bob Doll, Doll, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Tom Essaye, Essaye, Granger, Kantrowitz, Jerome Powell, William Edwards Organizations: Philadelphia Fed, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Consumer, Crossmark Global Investments, BlackRock, Silicon Valley Bank, Rosenberg Research, Fed, Auto, Wall, CPI, Institute for Supply Management's, Treasury, Royal Bank of Canada Locations: Silicon, YOLO

☆ A former BlackRock stock chief shares 3 indicators that tell him it's too early to abandon his recession call despite the economy's strength — and warns the stock market's rally is doomed for a revers
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-12 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The inverted yield curve and The Conference Board's LEI are two indicators that inform his view. Instead, investors should be paying attention to indicators like the Treasury yield curve, The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, and money growth. Here's the yield curve. And the start of a recession typically comes a bunch of of months after the yield curve inverts. The yield curve didn't invert until less than a year ago.

Persons: Bob Doll, LEI, Doll, Wall, — Bank of America's Michael Gapen, Michael Feroli —, we're, Louis, It's, Rosenberg Research's David Rosenberg, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Greg Boutle, Tom Lee Organizations: Federal Reserve, — Bank of America's, Crossmark Global Investments, BlackRock, Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Fed, Louis Investors, Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg, BNP, Institute for Supply, Institute for Supply Management, of Labor Statistics Locations: Wells

☆ Slower, but still strong US employment growth expected in July
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday is still expected to show a tight labor market, with the unemployment rate steady near multi-decade lows, though wage growth probably moderated. Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 200,000 jobs last month, after rising 209,000 in June, according to a Reuters survey of 80 economists. Still, employment growth would be double the roughly 100,000 jobs per month needed to keep up with the increase in the working age population. Striking Hollywood writers and actors also likely had no impact on employment growth. Though annual wage growth remains too high to be consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target, it would be the latest indication of wage pressures continuing to subside into the third quarter.

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Sam Bullard, Nonfarm, Carl Riccadonna, Sung Won Sohn, Veronica Clark, Lucia Mutikani, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor, Fed, BNP, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Supply, Labor Department, Conference, Finance, Loyola Marymount University, Citigroup, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina, New York, Los Angeles

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