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☆ Dollar General shares sink on second annual forecast cut, disappointing investors
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Savyata Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Dollar General shopping carts are seen outside a store in Mount Rainier, Maryland, U.S., June 1, 2021. The Goodlettsville, Tennessee-based retailer has fallen short of the average analyst forecast for four straight quarters, and on Thursday cut its annual profit and sales targets for the second time this year. The quarter "marks the fourth consecutive guide down for Dollar General, which admittedly creates further uncertainty if we are hitting the bottom yet," said Raymond James analyst Bobby Griffin. "While we expect traffic trends to improve, we do not expect positive traffic until the fourth quarter," CFO Kelly Dilts said. To better compete with rival Dollar Tree and bigger grocer Walmart (WMT.N), Dollar General has been investing to keep prices low for its everyday staples, improve merchandise mix and increase wages.

Persons: Erin Scott, Raymond James, Bobby Griffin, Kelly Dilts, Savyata Mishra, Pooja Desai Organizations: REUTERS, Dollar, Walmart, Thomson Locations: Mount Rainier , Maryland, U.S, , Tennessee, Bengaluru

☆ Dollar Tree forecasts tepid annual profit on costs, pivot to spending on essentials
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A Dollar Tree sign is seen outside the store in Washington, U.S., June 1, 2021. REUTERS/Erin Scott/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsAug 24 (Reuters) - Dollar Tree (DLTR.O) forecast annual profit largely below estimates on Thursday, owing to higher costs and a shift in spending towards lower-margin consumables. Chief Financial Officer Jeff Davis said the profit outlook was also impacted by unfavorable shrink trends and higher diesel fuel prices. Dollar Tree, like retailers Target (TGT.N) and Macy's (M.N), has been plagued by a rise in retail shrink, where inventory is lost, damaged, or stolen. Dollar Tree said it now expects to earn in the range of $5.78 to $6.08 per share in fiscal 2023, compared with its prior outlook of between $5.73 and $6.13.

Persons: Erin Scott, Jeff Davis, Savyata Mishra, Pooja Desai Organizations: REUTERS, Target, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Chesapeake , Virginia, Bengaluru

NEW YORK, Aug 23 (Reuters) - A recent spike in U.S. bond yields has come alongside muted expectations for inflation, a sign to some bond fund managers that economic resilience and high bond supply are now playing a larger role than second-guessing the Federal Reserve. Bond yields, which move inversely to prices, tend to rise in an inflationary environment because inflation erodes the value of a future bond payout. But while higher moves in bond yields in the last several months were often driven by investors pricing in higher interest rates as the Fed sought to tame rising inflation, expectations on the pace of price rises have moved lower in recent weeks. Long-term Treasury yields account for factors such as inflation expectations and term premiums, or what investors demand to be compensated for the risk of holding long-term paper. A recent string of strong economic data despite higher interest rates has strengthened investor beliefs that interest rates will remain higher for longer, even if inflation is tamed.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, Bond, ”, Calvin Norris, John Madziyire, Anthony Woodside, “, Aegon's Norris, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Anna Driver Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Aegon Asset Management, Investors, Bank of Japan, BMO Capital Markets, Treasury, Securities, Reuters, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, America

He called the U.S. central bank's misreading of the issue "a major failure" that can mar analysis of where the economy stands. Since 2016, policies from the vastly different Trump and Biden administrations have combined in a sort of accidental complementarity to keep both job and economic growth above the Fed's estimate of potential. Median Fed policymaker projections of potential U.S. economic growth have slid from a level around 2.5% a decade ago to 1.8% as of June 2023, when the last projections were issued. Under pressure from colleagues to raise interest rates as the economy accelerated, Greenspan resisted and accommodated the expansion instead of fighting it. But it could help economic growth continue even as prices cool, another prop for the "soft landing" the Fed hopes to engineer and possible evidence of rising potential.

Persons: John Williams, Joe Biden, Adam Posen, Donald Trump, Trump's, Biden, Dana Peterson, Peterson, Jerome Powell, Board's Peterson, Alan Greenspan's, Greenspan, Jackson, John Fernald, Huiyu Li, Michael Feroli, Antulio Bomfim, Powell, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Fed, San Francisco, Fed, Reuters, BlackRock, Bank of England, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Trump, Biden, Conference Board, Jackson, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan, Trust Asset Management, Thomson Locations: U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Washington

☆ NY Fed finds record wage expectations in July consumer survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

People walk by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in the financial district of New York City, U.S., June 14, 2023. Meanwhile, respondents to the bank’s Survey of Consumer Expectations said that the lowest wage they’d accept to take a job also jumped, hitting a record $78,645, from $72,873 a year ago. The survey said that survey respondents said that in July the average wage offered for a full-time job was $69,475 versus $60,764 in July 2022. The jump in compensation, actual and expected, came even as poll respondents saw some softening around the edges of the job market. The New York Fed reports on labor market expectations quarterly as part of a data series best known for tracking the expected path of inflation and household financial situations.

Persons: Shannon Stapleton, they’re, there’s, they’d, “, Michael S, Chizu Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, bank’s Survey, Consumer Expectations, New York Fed, Cleveland Fed, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ America's wealthiest 10% are responsible for 40% of its climate-crisis-causing emissions. Tax them, researchers say.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Morgan Mcfall-Johnsen | Marianne Guenot | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The richest 10% of Americans' income has generated 40% of US carbon emissions, a new study found. Tax shareholders rather than focusing on consumers, the study authors argue. How much carbon emissions are produced in the supply chain to create the earnings of each income group, pre-tax. Not only was the top 10% earners' income generating over 40% of emissions, but the income of the top 1% was responsible for 15%-17% of emissions, they found. In the US, multiple proposals for a carbon tax have been introduced in Congress.

Persons: Peter Unger, Patrick T, Fallon, Jared Starr, Starr, Carlo Allegri, That's Organizations: Investments, Service, Getty Images, Getty, University of Massachusetts Amherst, International Monetary Fund Locations: Manhattan

For investors who had expected more economic strife, sticking to those calls has become increasingly difficult. "It's going to take longer for rates to rally," said John Madziyire, senior portfolio manager and head of U.S. Treasuries and TIPS at Vanguard Fixed Income Group. "Recession or no recession, we think the probability of higher-for-longer interest rates is far greater than the likelihood of near-term cuts," credit investment firm Oaktree Capital said in a recent note. A re-acceleration in inflation could lead to higher rates than the market has priced in. Some are navigating the uncertainty by combining exposure to higher-yielding short term bonds with long-term bonds in case of a downturn.

Persons: –, Felipe Villarroel, John Madziyire, Oaktree Capital, Danielle Poli, Anthony Woodside, Woodside, Stephen Dover, Chip Hughey, Davide Barbuscia, Richard Chang Organizations: Bond, Federal Reserve, TwentyFour Asset Management, Bank of, Fitch's U.S, Treasury, Oaktree, Fund, Reuters, U.S, Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, Truist Advisory Services, Vanguard, Thomson Locations: U.S, Oaktree

☆ As recession fears fade, we may be experiencing a 'richcession' instead — here’s what that means for you
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-16 | by ( Jessica Dickler | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"Although we are not in an overall recession yet, the demand for and wages of lower-income groups are outpacing higher-income groups." But there still aren't enough workers to fill open positions in the service industry and the unemployment rate remains near a 50-year low at just 3.5%. What a 'richcession' means for consumers"Recession is a loaded term," said Jacob Channel, senior economist at LendingTree. "White-collar jobs might not be as plentiful as they were last year, but they're still around." "On the contrary, most current data indicates that despite numerous headwinds, the broader economy is doing remarkably well, all things considered," he added.

Persons: Tomas Philipson, Jacob Channel Organizations: University of Chicago, White House Council, Economic Advisers, Digitalvision, Challenger

☆ Soft landing hopes are drawing money back into this risky asset that’s paying 8% yield. How to navigate
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

High yield mutual funds and exchange traded funds saw inflows of $1.9 billion in July, Barclays said, citing Lipper data. High yield bonds are corporate issues that are rated below BBB, meaning they have a higher risk of default compared to their investment-grade counterparts. "When we are in junk and high yield names, we prefer loans – more senior loan positions rather than high yield." Novak added outside of high yield loans, the firm's other big fixed income play is higher quality investment grade bonds. "We don't think taking a heroic position [in high yield] makes a whole lot of sense in our view," he said.

Persons: Dow Jones, Bill Zox, it's, Zox, Bryan Novak, Novak, Brandywine's Zox, nonbank financials, Bill Ahmuty, Lawrence Gillum, Michael Bloom Organizations: Barclays, Fitch, Management, Brandywine Global, SEC, Astor Investment Management, Corporate, State, LPL

☆ China turns to rural tourism and smart appliances to boost consumption
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

On Monday, the central government announced 20 measures to support tourism, as well as spur consumption of electric cars and so-called smart appliances. The support measures announced included an entire section on spurring rural consumption. Specifics included subsidizing trade-ins for purchase of smart household appliances, improving delivery services and promoting rural tourism. Median disposable income for rural households rose by 6.1% in the first half of the year from a year ago, official data showed. But at 8,920 yuan ($1,245) in disposable income, rural households only had about 40% of what urban households had to spend.

Persons: Yang Bo, Xu Hongcai, Li Chunlin, Li, Nomura, Xu, Wang Jun Organizations: China News Service, Getty, China Association of Policy, National Development, Reform Commission, CNBC, Boston Consulting Group, U.S . Authorities, Huatai Asset Management Locations: Nanjing, China, BEIJING, Beijing, Hong Kong

☆ Retirement account balances have increased substantially for high-income households. These factors help explain why
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The median retirement account balance for high-income households was nine times that of middle-income households in 2019 — $605,000 compared with $64,300, respectively, the research found. That gap is "significantly greater" than it was in 2007, when high-income households had a median retirement account balance that was about four times higher than middle-income households — about $333,000 versus $86,800, respectively. White households also consistently had significantly higher median balances from 2007 to 2019. High-income households contributed about 8% of their pay — or a median of about $10,000 — while low-income households put in about 5% — or about $1,500. Employer contributions were also greater for high-income versus low-income households — with a median of $5,000 versus $1,300.

Organizations: Office, Finance

Global Head of Fixed Income Group Sara Devereux said on Thursday the probability of another interest rate increase by the Fed this year stood at 50%. Beyond that, the U.S. central bank was likely to maintain a "hawkish hold" on rates. "We don't think they're going to cut rates anytime soon ... the Fed may have more work to do." Vanguard, which manages $8 trillion in assets, said its base case scenario remained for a shallow recession in 2024 as higher interest rates hit the economy. "The downside risk ... is the Fed overshoots and they drive us into a deeper recession."

Persons: Sara Devereux, Jerome Powell, Devereux, Davide Barbuscia, Matthew Lewis Organizations: YORK, Vanguard, Reserve, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York

☆ Kids of the 1% are twice as likely to get into 'Ivy Plus' colleges, even when their grades are no better than anyone else's
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Kai Xiang Teo | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A new study shows kids of the top 1% are over twice as likely to be admitted to Ivy Plus colleges. That's despite scoring no better than students of other income groups, per an Opportunity Insights study. Ivy Plus refers to the eight Ivy League colleges Brown, Columbia, Cornell, Dartmouth, Harvard, UPenn, Princeton, and Yale, plus Stanford, MIT, Duke, and the University of Chicago. On Tuesday, the US Department of Education launched a federal civil rights probe against Harvard, alleging favoritism towards legacy students in their admission process, per Reuters. The Ivy Plus colleges did not immediately respond to requests for comment from Insider, sent outside regular business hours.

Persons: Rhodes Organizations: Ivy Plus, Service, Opportunity, Harvard, Ivy, Ivy League colleges Brown, Cornell, Dartmouth, Yale, Stanford, MIT, Duke, University of Chicago, US, Associated Press, US Department of Education, Reuters Locations: Wall, Silicon, Columbia, UPenn, Princeton

☆ Here are 3 ways the Fed messed up since 2021 and how it's impacting the economy, according to UBS
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Federal Reserve has made three big mistakes since inflation took off in 2021, according to UBS. "Today's rate hike will probably have to be reversed in a relatively short space of time," UBS said. Today's additional rate hike from the Fed gets to the root of what has went wrong. These are the three big mistakes made by the Fed over the past two years, and how it will impact the economy, according to UBS. "A sensible recognition of the declining quality of economic data would have stopped the blind hike, hike, hike strategy."

Persons: Paul Donovan, Donovan, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Federal, UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management's, Fed Locations: Ukraine

☆ Behind Prime Day's rosy headlines are mixed signals for back-to-school season. These retail stocks will fare the best
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( Christina Cheddar Berk | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The National Retail Federation is predicting record spending , whether students are heading back to elementary school, high school or college. Bracing for higher prices as wages fall Baked into that outlook was an expectation held by the vast majority of respondents, 82%, that prices will be higher this year than in 2022. As in the KPMG survey, the gain largely reflected the perception that prices will be higher this year. In the JLL poll, Walmart , Target and Amazon were among the top three retailers parents planned to shop, by a wide margin. Stifel reiterated its price target of $163 for Walmart, saying, "We continue to see more upside than downside from current levels."

Persons: Paul Ashworth, Staples, Mark Astrachan, Astrachan, Stifel, Corey Tarlowe, Tarlowe Organizations: Prime, National Retail Federation, KPMG, Big, Capital Economics, Consumers, Walmart, Target, Old Navy, Kohl's, Macy's, Costco, Adobe Analytics, Jefferies, Amazon, Walmart U.S, Bed Locations: American

☆ Renters are being hit harder by inflation than homeowners
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Washington, DC CNN —Renters and homeowners are experiencing inflation differently, according to new data from Bank of America — and, unsurprisingly, renters are taking the hit. Secondly, even if a typical mortgage payment is higher than a typical monthly rent payment, because renters’ income tends to be less than homeowners, more renters put a larger share of their income toward rent than homeowners put toward mortgage payments. Restaurants are the only sector where homeowners and renters are both still showing an increase in spending from last year, and homeowners significantly outpace renters. Even controlling for income — which is necessary because renters tend to have lower incomes than homeowners — renters are showing less spending strength than homeowners in their same income group in most spending categories. Looking ahead, however, this wedge between the spending of renters and homeowners may narrow, the report points out.

Persons: Bank of America —, Freddie Mac’s, —, Freddie Mac Organizations: DC CNN, Bank of America, Consumer, Federal Reserve, Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University Locations: Washington

☆ Your city could get millions to create jobs under a new Biden plan to put Americans back to work
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Cities and regions left behind by bygone industries can now apply for funding to revitalize jobs. The Biden administration is opening up applications for its Recompete Pilot Program. Under that program, a handful of "distressed communities" can receive at least $20 million. It's called the Recompete Pilot Program, and it's meant to pump funds into economically distressed areas. According to research from Timothy J. Bartik for the Brookings Institute, nearly a sixth of the country's population lives in distressed communities.

Persons: Biden, —, It's, Biden's, Gina Raimondo, Timothy J, Bartik, Derek Kilmer, it's, Kilmer, what's, Alejandra Castillo Organizations: Service, Economic Development Administration, Brookings Institute, White, Commerce, Economic Development Locations: Scranton , Pennsylvania, Washington

☆ Nearly all Americans cut back on spending due to inflation, CNBC survey finds
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Courtney Reagan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Nearly all Americans are cutting back on their spending in some way, according to a new CNBC and Morning Consult survey. Of the survey respondents, 92% of middle-income Americans — or those who make between $50,000 and $100,000 a year — reported being "somewhat" or "very" worried about higher prices. "Customers continue to seek value given the impact of inflation," Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said on the retailer's first-quarter earnings call. Spending at value-oriented grocery stores in May outpaced spending in the overall grocery segment, according to Bank of America aggregated credit and debit card spending data. The CNBC and Morning Consult survey was conducted online earlier this month and polled more than 4,400 adults.

Persons: Doug McMillon, Robert Ohmes Organizations: CNBC, Walmart, Target, Walmart U.S, Bank of America, Grocery Outlet, " Bank of America Securities Locations: New York City

☆ The rich often misjudge the potency of their retirement savings, report finds
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Thirty-two percent of high-income households are "not worried enough" about their retirement risk, a larger share than the 26% of low- and middle-income earners. The Center for Retirement Research uses the survey data to construct a National Retirement Risk Index. The index models retirement preparedness according to a range of assets like Social Security, pensions, home equity and employer-sponsored retirement plans, such as a 401(k). Anqi Chen assistant director of savings research, Center for Retirement Research at Boston CollegeIn 2019, 47% of American households were at risk of not being able to maintain their standard of living in retirement, according to the index. Why the rich are more likely to underestimate riskWestend61 | Westend61 | Getty ImagesNineteen percent of U.S. households correctly identify as being at risk of falling short in retirement, according to the center's report.

Persons: Anqi Chen, Chen, they're, David Blanchett, Louis Organizations: Getty, Center for Retirement Research, Boston College, Finance, GOP, Federal Reserve's Survey, Consumer Finances, Retirement Research, Social Security, for Retirement Research, Westend61, Prudential Financial, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Center for Locations: U.S, PGIM

☆ Middle-income buyers face the most severe housing shortage
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

These would-be buyers face the most severe housing shortage of any other income bracket, according to a new analysis from the National Association of Realtors and Realtor.com that found the market is short more than 300,000 affordable homes for these buyers. Given that income, these buyers can purchase homes valued up to $256,000 without being overburdened with housing costs. Middle-income buyers can afford to buy less than a quarter — only 23% — of listings that are currently on the market. In a balanced market, buyers earning $75,000 can afford to purchase 66% of the listings in the Youngstown metro area. However, these buyers would be able to afford to buy more than 50% of the listings in a balanced market.

Persons: ”, Nadia Evangelou, that’s, ” Evangelou, “ It’s, Toledo —, Danielle Hale, “ Organizations: DC CNN, National Association of Realtors, NAR, El, homeownership Locations: Washington, United States, homeownership, Ohio, — Youngstown , Akron, Toledo, Youngstown, El Paso , Texas, Boise , Idaho, Spokane , Washington, In Boise, Boise

☆ Who does inflation hit hardest? Experts weigh in on how higher prices impact households
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Jessica Dickler | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Fizkes | Istock | Getty ImagesStubborn inflation has driven households near the breaking point, but the pain of high prices has not been shared equally. The lowest-paid workers spend more of their income on necessities such as food, rent and gas, categories that also experienced higher-than-average inflation spikes. Because higher-income households spend relatively more on services, which notched smaller price increases compared with goods, they came out ahead. Middle-income households see slower wage growthBy other measures, Americans in the middle class are getting especially squeezed. watch nowEconomists' definitions of middle class vary.

Persons: Laurence Kotlikoff, Tomas Philipson, Brian Albrecht, Albrecht, Philipson, Aron Levine, Boston University's Organizations: Istock, Getty, Boston University ., White House Council, Economic, University of Pennsylvania's Wharton, Finance, International Center for Law, Economics, Congressional, Office, Pew Research Center, Bank of America Institute, Bank of, Boston, Consumer Financial, Bureau

☆ More Americans Are Struggling Financially, as Inflation Takes a Toll
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Americans have jobs. The share of U.S. adults who said they were doing “at least OK financially” fell sharply last year, to 73 percent from 78 percent in 2021, according to the latest Federal Reserve survey of Americans’ financial well-being, released on Monday. The erosion in financial health was broad-based, cutting across racial and ethnic lines, educational categories and income groups. The data, from the Fed’s Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking, echoes other surveys showing that Americans feel glum about the economy and their own finances. But it provides new details on how the economic crosscurrents of a strong job market and rising prices are affecting families.

☆ Old rivalries, new battle as Thailand goes to the polls
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( Chayut Setboonsarng | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/6] Electoral workers prepare ahead of the upcoming general election, in Bangkok, Thailand, May 13, 2023. The election again pits Pheu Thai's driving force, the billionaire Shinawatra family, against a nexus of old money, military and conservatives with influence over key institutions that have toppled three of the populist movement's four governments. We will change from a dictatorship to a democratically elected government," Paetongtarn told cheering crowds on Friday at Pheu Thai's final rally. The United Thai Nation of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, who led the coup against Pheu Thai's last government, has pledged debt relief, cheaper electricity for low-income groups and subsidies for transport and crop harvesting. ($1 = 33.8500 baht)Reporting by Chayut Setboonsarng; Writing by Martin Petty; Editing by William MallardOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Why bank stocks are so unstable
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

New York CNN —The financial sector has been churning in rough water since the shocking collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March. Bank insiders see this and have been buying up shares of regional lenders, according to a report by Timothy Coffey, an analyst at Janney Montgomery Scott. The Oracle of Omaha said he remains cautious about holding bank stocks and that he has reduced his own exposure to the sector. The S&P 500 financial sector, however, is down more than 12% over the same period. Economists were hoping that this year would bring better news, but instead 2023 brought the collapse of three US regional banks and a subsequent lending squeeze.

☆ Morgan Stanley says the global education market will be worth $8 trillion, and names 4 stock picks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Global spending on education will be worth $8 trillion by 2030, Morgan Stanley predicts, saying there are opportunities in the market that are "just beginning to be enabled by technology." Stock picks Morgan Stanley named seven stock picks to capitalize on the trend. 3P Learning : Morgan Stanley said the Australian firm is a "distinct" product that reaches a wide variety of groups – schools, teachers, parents and home users. Arco Platform : Morgan Stanley says Arco is a leader in Brazil's K-12 learning systems, and has a presence throughout the country. YDUQS : Morgan Stanley noted the firm, which is also a Brazilian player, is committed to being accessible and affordable to lower-income groups.

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