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The most recent week saw purchases of NYMEX and ICE WTI (+12 million), Brent (+8 million), U.S. gasoline (+2 million) and European gas oil (+1 million) but sales of U.S. diesel (-3 million). But in products, the long-short ratio has increased to only 2.69:1 (40th percentile) from 2.39:1 (38th percentile) on March 21. And in middle distillates, such as gas oil and ultra-low sulphur diesel, the ratio has actually fallen slightly to 1.70:1 (33rd percentile) from 1.78:1 (35th percentile). Even on the crude side, however, the end of the short-covering process has sapped oil prices of some of their upward short-term momentum. U.S. NATURAL GASInvestors are becoming cautiously more bullish on U.S. gas prices, anticipating prices have already dropped so low the balance of risks is tilted strongly towards the upside.

☆ Global rice shortage is set to be the largest in 20 years – here's why
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The global rice market is set to log its largest shortfall in two decades in 2023, according to Fitch Solutions. "At the global level, the most evident impact of the global rice deficit has been, and still is, decade-high rice prices," Fitch Solutions' commodities analyst Charles Hart said. That would mar the largest global rice deficit since 2003/2004, when the global rice markets generated a deficit of 18.6 million tonnes, said Hart. "The global rice production deficit situation will increase the cost of importing rice for major rice importers such as Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia and African countries in 2023," said Tjakra. "It is our view that global rice production will stage a solid rebound in 2023/24, expecting total output to rise by 2.5% year on year," Fitch's report forecast, hinging on India being a "principal engine" of global rice output over the next five years.

☆ Oil prices steady as strong China data offsets US rate worries
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

2 oil consumer China offset concerns that possible increases in U.S. interest rates could dampen growth in the top consuming country. China's economy grew by a faster-than-expected 4.5% in the first quarter while oil refinery throughput rose to record levels in March, data showed. The dollar eased on Tuesday after the upbeat China data. Most traders, however, believe that the recent crude price rally is in need of a correction, said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial. Crude prices posted gains for the last four weeks, a streak not seen since June 2022.

[1/2] The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, U.S., November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File PhotoSummarySummary Companies U.S. dollar, interest rate concerns pressure oilG7 coalition to keep Russian oil price cap at $60/bbl -sourceBaghdad, KRG take step toward resuming Iraq oil exportsChina's Q1 GDP data expected to support oil pricesSINGAPORE, April 17 (Reuters) - Oil prices turned lower on Monday as the U.S. dollar strengthened and as investors mulled over a possible May interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which could dampen economic recovery hopes. The U.S. dollar has been strengthening alongside interest rate hikes, making dollar-denominated oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. "The dollar is a little bit stronger, and that seems to be putting a little bit of pressure on oil here," Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn said. In Saudi Arabia, crude oil exports in February fell to 7.455 million bpd from 7.658 million bpd in January, official data showed on Monday.

Also supporting prices was a Wednesday report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration that U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell unexpectedly in the week to March 24 to a two-year low. These factors offset bearish sentiment after a lower than expected cut to Russian crude oil production in the first three weeks of March. The 300,000 bpd production decline compared with targeted cuts of 500,000 bpd, or about 5% of Russian output, sources familiar with the data told Reuters. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is likely to stick to its existing deal on reduced oil output at a meeting on Monday, five delegates from the producer group told Reuters. "If all goes as expected, and we manage to avoid a recession, oil prices will dance around $75-$85/bbl in the coming months," FGE analysts said in a note.

Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 142 million barrels in the six most important contracts in the seven days ending on March 21, after selling 139 million barrels in the week to March 14. Fund managers have slashed their combined position to just 289 million barrels (6th percentile for all weeks since 2013) from 570 million (46th percentile) on March 7. The fund community liquidated 163 million barrels of previous bullish long positions in the two most recent weeks, while establishing 115 million barrels of new bearish short ones. The most recent week saw heavy sales across the board, including Brent (-63 million barrels), NYMEX and ICE WTI (-48 million), U.S. gasoline (-15 million), U.S. diesel (-6 million) and European gas oil (-10 million). Anticipating the erosion of the surplus, funds have bought the equivalent of 774 billion cubic feet in the last seven weeks.

LONDON, March 22 (Reuters) - Portfolio investors dumped petroleum futures and options at one of the fastest rates on record in the early stages of the banking crisis, as traders anticipated an increased probability of a recession hitting oil consumption. Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 139 million barrels in the six most important futures and options contracts over the seven days ending March 14. Fund managers have sold a total of 148 million barrels since the end of January, taking their combined position to 432 million barrels (20th percentile for all weeks since 2013). In the most recent week, there were heavy sales of Brent (-65 million barrels), NYMEX and ICE WTI (-59 million), U.S. gasoline (-12 million) and European gas oil (-7 million), with only minor buying of U.S. diesel (+4 million). Related column:- U.S. bank failure places oil prices under pressure (March 13, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Oil prices rebounded as Wall Street posted gains. Earlier, Brent and WTI fell about $3 a barrel to the lowest since December 2021, with WTI sinking below $65 a barrel at one point. After the deal was announced, the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and other major central banks pledged to enhance market liquidity and support other banks. "There's a lot of fear-based movement (in oil prices)," Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn said. Some executives are calling on the central bank to pause its monetary policy tightening but be ready to resume raising rates later.

The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude contract for April was down 28 cents at $66.46 before its expiry on Tuesday. "There's a lot of fear-based movement (in oil prices)," Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn said. "We're not moving at all on supply and demand fundamentals, we're just moving on the banking concerns." On Monday, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones gained, helping lift oil prices off the day's lows. The group agreed in October to cut oil production targets by 2 million barrels per day until the end of 2023.

Oil futures have fallen over 8% since last Friday as the collapse of SVB Financial (SIVB.O) and peer Signature Bank (SBNY.O) prompted concerns of a wider banking crisis. Investors in the oil market, including oil producers, have rushed to buy put options, used to either bet on or protect against downside movement. For U.S. crude futures options open interest, the ratio of puts to calls is the highest since August 2022. The discount of later-dated oil futures contracts to the front-month contract tightened on Wednesday, indicating that market participants were less confident in short-term demand. That short-term uncertainty should buoy put buying, Price Futures Group's Flynn said.

☆ Oil slumps $5/bbl to lowest in more than a year as banking fears mount
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"Nobody wants to go home with a big position on anything today ... you have nowhere to hide really." Both crude benchmarks hit their lowest since December 2021 and have fallen for three straight days. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was down $4.51, or 6.3%, at $66.84, breaking through technical levels of $70 and $68 and extending the sell off. Wednesday's monthly report from the International Energy Agency provided support by flagging an expected boost to oil demand from China, a day after OPEC increased its Chinese demand forecast for 2023. "We definitely have seen the oil market separate themselves from oil inventories and we’re more focused on a larger meltdown of the global economy," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.

☆ Oil prices fall 2% in choppy trade as banking fears rattle markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices fell over 2% in volatile trading on Monday as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank roiled equities markets and raised fears of a fresh financial crisis, but a recovery in Chinese demand provided support. Brent crude futures settled down $2.01, or 2.4%, to $80.77. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) dropped $1.88, or 2.5%, to $74.80 a barrel. Worries about further Fed monetary tightening have been exacerbated by high U.S. crude oil inventories. Crude oil production in the seven biggest U.S. shale basins is expected to rise in April to its highest since December 2019, the Energy Information Administration said.

☆ Be skeptical of funds that invest like politicians: 'The smart money is not even in the same building'
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Ryan Ermey | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Last year, a bipartisan bill seeking to ban members of Congress from trading stocks while in office fell short of a floor vote in the House. That's the conceit behind two recently unveiled exchange-traded funds from Subversive Capital and investment data firm Unusual Whales. One with the ticker symbol NANC invests in stocks purchased or sold by Democratic members of Congress and their spouses. The fund trading under the symbol KRUZ does the same for Republicans. "There are far cheaper ways to get that exposure than paying 75 basis points," says Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at investment research firm VettaFI.

☆ Even a weak Russia is a problem for Europe
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-20 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

TINOS, Greece, Feb 20 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Almost a year after Russia invaded Ukraine it is hard to see Vladimir Putin winning his war. After all, that would involve either Ukraine surrendering land, which it cannot accept, or Russia giving up all the territory it has occupied including Crimea, which Putin won’t do. Radoslaw Sikorski, a former Polish foreign minister who is now a member of the European Parliament, says Russia only reforms itself after military defeats like the Crimean War, the Russo-Japanese War, World War One and the Cold War. Europe, which was late to appreciate the danger posed by Putin, won’t quickly forget the lesson even if he goes. Yet even a Russia weakened by a year of war and sanctions remains a problem for Europe.

☆ Orange juice prices soar to record highs as recent hurricanes plunge Florida's expected production haul to lowest since the 1930s
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Orange juice prices have soared 30% year-to-date to record highs after recent hurricanes hampered production. And over the past year, futures contracts that are tied to orange juice concentrate have nearly doubled. The US Department of Agriculture expects this year's orange production to fall to its lowest haul since the 1930s. Orange juice futures are up 87% from a year ago, when they traded at about $1.40 per pound. Florida orange production has plummeted more than 90% from the peak seen in the late 1990s.

Brent crude futures were up $2.70, or 3.3%, to $83.69 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose $3.03, or 4.1%, to $77.14 per barrel. The U.S. dollar index fell after the data, raising oil prices. The BTC terminal, which exports Azeri crude oil to international markets, will be closed through Wednesday. Iraqi crude oil loadings from storage in Ceyhan were ready for resumption on Tuesday, but bad weather was preventing vessels from berthing, a trade source said. Iraq's crude oil pipeline to Turkey's Ceyhan port was still halted, the Kurdistan Regional Government's energy ministry said.

The U.S. dollar index fell after the data, raising oil prices. Forecasted stronger demand in China also lifted crude prices on Tuesday. The BTC terminal, which exports Azeri crude oil to international markets, will be closed on Feb. 6-8. Iraqi crude oil loadings from storage in Ceyhan were ready for resumption on Tuesday, but bad weather was preventing vessels from berthing, a trade source with direct knowledge said. Iraq's crude oil pipeline to Turkey's Ceyhan port was still halted, the Kurdistan Regional Government's energy ministry said.

But the wave of buying spread beyond crude to encompass U.S. gasoline (+11 million barrels), U.S. diesel (+8 million) and European gas oil (+7 million). Chartbook: Investor petroleum positionsThe net position across all six contracts climbed to 575 million barrels (47th percentile for all weeks since 2013), up from 343 million barrels (11th percentile) on Dec. 13. Hedge funds became more bullish about Brent than at any time since May 2019, before the pandemic erupted and upended the oil industry. In the oil market, investors are increasingly sure continued growth will cause supplies to tighten and send prices higher. Unenviable alternatives for 2023 (Reuters, Jan. 26)- Investors surge back into oil on rising economic optimism (Reuters, Jan. 23)- Bullish oil investors look beyond China's COVID wave (Reuters, Jan. 3)- Investors abandon bullish oil positions as recession nears (Reuters, Dec. 12)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

☆ Oil prices steady after smaller-than-expected U.S. crude build
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Shariq Khan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Smaller-than-expected build in U.S. crude stocksBroader markets weighed by economic slowdown concernsU.S. business activity contracts in JanuaryOPEC+ unlikely to tweak oil policy at Feb. 1 meetingBENGALURU, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Oil prices were largely unchanged on Wednesday, after government data showed a smaller-than-anticipated build in U.S. crude inventories, countering weak economic data from Tuesday. Brent crude was up 25 cents, or 0.3%, to $86.38 a barrel by 1:41 p.m. EST (1841 GMT) after declining 2.3% in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 49 cents, or 0.6%, to $80.62 a barrel, after a 1.8% drop on Tuesday. "If we look at crude, the increase in stocks was much smaller-than-anticipated, and that is raising concerns about tightness in supply. On Wednesday, oil prices and broader financial markets were weighed down by data published on Tuesday showing U.S. business activity contracted in January for the seventh-straight month, raising concerns about an economic slowdown.

Jan 25 (Reuters) - U.S. crude inventories rose last week as demand for fuels tapered off, and while the increase was less than expected, crude stocks reached the highest level since June 2021, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday. U.S. crude futures rose by more than $1 to a session high of $81.23 on Wednesday morning, before paring gains. Total product supplied, a proxy for fuel demand, fell 867,000 barrels per day to 19.4 million bpd, EIA data showed. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub (USOICC=ECI) rose by 4.3 million barrels in the last week, the EIA said. Net U.S. crude imports (USOICI=ECI) fell by 1.79 million barrels per day, the EIA said.

☆ Oil edges up after less-than-expected U.S. inventories rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Shariq Khan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 39 cents, or 0.5%, to $80.52 a barrel, after a 1.8% drop on Tuesday. U.S. crude inventories (USOILC=ECI) rose by 533,000 barrels in the last week to 448.5 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday. "If we look at crude, the increase in stocks was much smaller-than-anticipated, and that is raising concerns about tightness in supply. An OPEC+ panel is likely to endorse the group's current policy at a Feb. 1 meeting, OPEC+ sources said on Tuesday. OPEC+ in October decided to trim output by 2 million barrels per day from November through 2023 on a weaker economic outlook.

Brent crude was up $1.29, or 1.6%, at $79.80 a barrel by 1:29 p.m. EST (1829 GMT). "The gradual reopening of the Chinese economy will provide an additional and immeasurable layer of price support," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. The rally followed a drop last week of more than 8% for both oil benchmarks, their biggest weekly declines at the start of a year since 2016. As part of a "new phase" in the fight against COVID-19, China opened its borders over the weekend for the first time in three years. "The NY Fed data should be supportive for oil prices, as it suggests that inflation is peaking," said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures group.

LONDON, Jan 9 (Reuters) - Rallying oil prices ran out of steam just before the end of the year as investors turned cautious after two weeks of heavy petroleum buying. Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 12 million barrels in the six most important petroleum-related futures and options contracts over the seven days ending Jan. 3. Light selling emerged after funds had purchased 103 million barrels over the preceding two weeks, according to position records published by ICE Futures Europe and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. But global distillate inventories remain severely depleted after an unprecedented drawdown between the middle of 2020 and the middle of 2022. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Oil prices rise over $2 on drawdown in U.S. crude stocks
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Brent crude futures for February delivery were up by $2.23, or 2.8%, at $82.22 a barrel by 12:20 p.m. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained $2.03, or 2.7%, to $78.26. U.S. crude inventories fell by 5.89 million barrels, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), compared with estimates for a drop of 1.66 million barrels. Distillate inventories fell by 242,000 barrels, according to EIA data, compared with analyst estimates for a build of 336,000 barrels. Overall, Russian oil exports fell by 11% month on month for Dec. 1-20 after the European Union's embargo on Russian oil came into force, the Kommersant daily reported.

And much like the COVID pandemic, calling the big event wouldn't necessarily have made your year-ahead financial market forecast much better or your bottom lines any fatter. Forecasts are a lifeblood in markets because no one can take a position without at least some conviction about what might happen next. The Federal Reserve's quarterly economic and policy rate projections for three years hence are a case in point. For context, the 4 point error range on unemployment rate forecasts is a difference of almost 6 million jobs and a 4.6 point range on GDP is more than a trillion dollars of output. The European Central Bank is more explicit about what market price assumptions it uses in staff forecasts.

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