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Institutional portfolios will continue to underperform due to a lack of adequate exposure to Nvidia and other winning technology names, UBS warned. Strategist Patrick Palfrey told clients that large-cap managers have 4.4% exposure to Nvidia, despite the artificial intelligence darling accounting for 6.6% of the S & P 500 . That is the biggest underweight position ever in Nvidia, according to Palfrey. As a result, "a continued TECH+ underweight is likely to remain a headwind for many portfolios," Palfrey wrote to clients. The latest evidence came Tuesday as the S & P 500 hit a record high , boosted by a 4% rally in Nvidia as CEO Huang finished selling shares for the time being under a preset trading plan.
Persons: Patrick Palfrey, Jensen, Palfrey, bode, Huang Organizations: Nvidia, UBS, Microsoft, Apple, Google
Analysts are warning that Coinbase could be entering a down trend after the stock scored a six-day-long advance. In early trading Wednesday, Coinbase rose as much as 1.3%, paving the way for what may be its seventh straight gain. "Coinbase looks very toppy to me as the recent bounce out of the oversold condition looks to be stalling out," Wolfe Research macro strategist Rob Ginsberg told CNBC. Lau also cited muted trading volume on crypto exchanges and pressure on subscription and services revenue due to the declining interest rate outlook. But cryptocurrency "trading volume could jump" when interest rates move even lower and if bitcoin again challenges its all-time high, Lau noted.
Persons: Coinbase, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Tamplin, Owen Lau, Oppenheimer, Lau, bitcoin, Bitcoin, Nick Wells Organizations: Wolfe Research, CNBC Locations: bitcoin
In fact, the S & P 500 is on pace for a winning September — its first since 2019 — with a gain of more than 1%. The month is typically the worst stretch of the year on average for all three major averages and the Russell 2000, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. Some of September's strength could be attributed to the Federal Reserve's supersized rate cut last week . The S & P 500 notched a fresh record close on Monday and an intraday all-time high on Tuesday. The benchmark S & P 500 typically pulls back nearly 1% on average in October in election years, per the Stock Trader's Almanac.
Persons: , Russell, Gary Pzegeo Organizations: Federal, CIBC Private Wealth Management
Piper Sandler upgraded shares of Salesforce to overweight, with its new price target implying upside of more than 20%. Helfstein placed a $45 price target on shares, implying about 48% upside from Monday's close. Along with the downgrade, Low reduced the firm's oil price target to $75 from $80 a barrel. — Samantha Subin 6:02 a.m.: Jefferies downgrades Starbucks to underperform Jefferies is bracing for more troubles ahead for shares of Starbucks . SBUX mountain 2024-06-28 SBUX in Q3 — Samantha Subin 5:45 a.m.: Piper Sandler upgrades Salesforce Piper Sandler is turning more bullish on shares of Salesforce .
Persons: Piper Sandler, Lowe's, Oppenheimer, Jason Helfstein, Pinterest, Helfstein, — Samantha Subin, Jefferies, Keith Devas, Samantha Subin, Peter Low, underperform Jefferies, Andy Barish, Barish, they've, Salesforce Piper Sandler, Brent Bracelin, Bracelin, Brian Nagel, Nagel, it's, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, Oppenheimer, Amazon, Google, Kenvue, Atlantic, Exxon Mobil, BP, Starbucks, U.S, Federal Reserve Locations: China, Salesforce, Monday's
In today's big story, China isn't proving to be the economic promised land US companies once hoped for . US-China relations have been on shaky ground for a while, to put it mildly. But despite the growing animosity, US corporations' push to sell things to Chinese consumers has been a middle ground everyone can agree on. AdvertisementTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company makes vital hardware components for most the world's chip companies, including industry giant Nvidia. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently said his company has a backup plan if things were to kick off in Taiwan .
Persons: , Jamie Dimon, Tyler Le, Insider's Linette Lopez, It's, that's, Kiran Ridley, Stringer, Getty, Jensen Huang, Huang, Alyssa Powell, Trump, Harris, isn't, Howard Marks, Marks, Rebecca Noble, Vance, Tom Brady, Jeff Bezos, it's, Ryan Routh, Donald Trump, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Jack Sommers, Amanda Yen, Grace Lett, Milan Sehmbi Organizations: Service, Business, China Xinhua News Agency, Getty, Apple, Nike, Huawei, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Nvidia, Billionaire, Economic Forum Locations: Washington ,, China, China . US, Washington, Beijing, Taiwan, USA, Florida, New York, London, Chicago
Morgan Stanley upgrades Centessa Pharmaceuticals, to overweight from equal weight Morgan Stanley said in its upgrade of Centessa that it's bullish on the biopharma company's narcolepsy treatment. Morgan Stanley downgrades Pepsi to equal weight from overweight Morgan Stanley said it sees "topline softness." Morgan Stanley names Nio a research catalyst idea Morgan Stanley said it's bullish on Nio after the China electric vehicle company debuted its latest model, the L60. Morgan Stanley downgrades FedEx to underweight to from equal weight Morgan Stanley downgraded FedEx following its disappointing earnings report on Thursday. Morgan Stanley reiterates Sunrun as overweight Morgan Stanley said the solar company has more room to run and that it's long term bullish on the company's partnership with Costco.
Persons: Jefferies, Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley downgrades Pepsi, Key, it's bullish, Riley, Reddit, Nio, it's, Bernstein downgrades Darden, Bernstein, Olive, DRI, Morgan Stanley downgrades ASML, Wells, Susquehanna, Evercore, Sunrun, Tesla, Mercado Organizations: Duke Energy, Centessa Pharmaceuticals, Amkor, China, UBS, Apple, RBC, FedEx, Deutsche Bank, American Airlines Deutsche, Susquehanna, Darden, Costco, Bank of America, Citi, Nike, Mercado Libre, Clearway Energy Locations: Nio, tailwinds, Olive, Argentina
Forty-one percent of analysts polled by FactSet have a buy rating on Tesla stock, while 21% have a sell rating. About 43% of analysts surveyed by FactSet maintain a buy rating on IBM stock, but 21% are at a sell. He also noted that the risk-to-reward skew on IBM stock is more balanced, leaving less upside for the stock. IBM YTD mountain IBM stock. Goldman Sachs recently added IBM to its conviction list with a $220 price target, or 2% above where shares closed Wednesday.
Persons: Tesla, TSLA, Wolfe Research's Emmanuel Rosner, Rosner, Morgan Stanley, Adam Jonas, Jonas, Elon Musk, Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi, Sacconaghi, Goldman Sachs, Jim Schneider, Campbell Soup Organizations: CNBC Pro, FactSet, U.S, automakers, IBM, Pepperidge
Shares dropped as much as 4% as a lockup period was set to expire. Following the lockup, Trump can dump his shares, though he's said he wouldn't sell. AdvertisementTrump Media & Technology Group shares dropped to their lowest level since the company went public earlier this year as a lockup period preventing insider selling was set to expire. The company went public in March, with shares spiking to all-time highs above $70 shortly after, before steadily declining in the following months. AdvertisementOnce the lockup period is over, the Republican presidential candidate has the all-clear to start selling his stock.
Persons: Trump, he's, Organizations: Trump Media, Service, Trump Media & Technology Group, CNBC, Republican
The consensus view is that lower rates will stave off a recession by stimulating economic growth through lower borrowing costs. The hidden danger of a double cutHowever, David Kelly of JPMorgan Asset Management warned that lower rates aren't an economic panacea. In fact, the chief global strategist thinks these cuts could, paradoxically, cause the economy to slow in the near term. Advertisement"The important thing to recognize is that cutting interest rates at the start doesn't stimulate the economy at all," Kelly said on CNBC. "There is a J-curve effect; it actually slows the economy because people begin to anticipate those lower rates, so they want to wait for lower rates."
Persons: , Jim Caron, Claudia Sahm, Jerome Powell, Sahm, Ronald Temple, Kevin Philip of, David Kelly, Kelly, what's, you've, Kelly isn't, it's, they've Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, Fed, Dow Jones, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, CNBC, New Century Advisors, Lazard, Kevin Philip of Bel Air Investment Advisors, JPMorgan Asset Management
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. But the tables are finally starting to turn as mortgage rates slide and inventory rises across US cities. Mortgage rates have fallen to the lowest levels since February 2023 as markets have priced in the Federal Reserve's long-awaited interest rate cuts, which finally arrived on Wednesday. pic.twitter.com/aAQvC80WPY — James Faris (@JamesFaris_) September 18, 2024Rising inventory is a big win for buyersHome inventory is also heading in the right direction. 20 cities where homes are much easier to findIn her note, Scibetta listed 20 major US cities where home inventory rose meaningfully from July 2023 to July 2024.
Persons: , aAQvC80WPY — James Faris, Mackenzie, Zoocasa, Scibetta, Kendall Bonner, Sellers, Bonner, " Bonner Organizations: Service, Business, National Association of Realtors, eXp, NAR
FedEx reported a steep quarterly profit drop and lowered its full-year revenue forecast on Thursday after its customers continued to trade down from speedy, pricey delivery to cheaper, slower options. Shares in the Memphis-based delivery giant tumbled almost 11% to $267.74 in after-hours trading, dragging shares in rival United Parcel Service down 2.5%. The shift to less-profitable packages is squeezing profits at FedEx and UPS. Subramaniam is leading a complex restructuring at FedEx that involves slashing billions of dollars in overheads and merging its separate Ground and Express delivery units. On an adjusted basis, profit fell to $3.60 per share from $4.55 per share a year ago.
Persons: Raj Subramaniam, Subramaniam Organizations: FedEx, United Parcel Service, UPS, Reuters, Federal, United States Postal Service, FedEx Freight Locations: Memphis, China, Shein, U.S
—Katie Stockton with Will Tamplin Access research from Fairlead Strategies for free here . Fairlead Strategies Disclaimer: This communication has been prepared by Fairlead Strategies LLC ("Fairlead Strategies") for informational purposes only. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this information must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed absent the written consent of Fairlead Strategies.
Persons: AAPL, Headwind, — Katie Stockton Organizations: Apple, AAPL, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, Fairlead, CNBC Pro, Securities Locations: AAPL
Oracle — The stock rose nearly 2% after the database software company raised its fiscal 2026 revenue outlook . Uber — Shares of the ride-sharing company advanced more than 5% following news that it plans to expand its partnership with Alphabet's Waymo . Adobe — Shares tumbled 9% after the software company issued weaker-than-expected guidance for the current quarter. Unity Software — Shares of the game engine company added nearly 7%. Discovery — Shares advanced about 9% after the media conglomerate entered an early renewal agreement with Charter Communications.
Persons: Kevin Clark, RH —, Gary Friedman, Alphabet's Waymo, Uber, Stifel, Biden, David Zaslav, , Jesse Pound, Sean Conlon, Samantha Subin, Hakyung Kim Organizations: JPMorgan, Oracle, Aptiv, — Stock, Adobe, Boeing, Unity, Holdings, PDD Holdings, Redfin Corporation, Federal Reserve, U.S, Home, Warner Bros, , Charter Communications, Discovery Locations: U.S, Austin , Texas, Atlanta, China
(This is CNBC Pro's live coverage of Friday's analyst calls and Wall Street chatter. A biotech stock and an energy company were among the names being talked about by analysts on Friday. — Sean Conlon 6:19 a.m.: Pivotal says buy TKO Group A competitive media landscape could mean gains for TKO Group , according to Pivotal Research Group. TKO Group shares are up nearly 41% year to date. TKO YTD mountain TKO in 2024 — Sean Conlon 5:49 a.m.: JPMorgan downgrades Moderna to underweight JPMorgan sees a rocky road ahead for Moderna .
Persons: Raymond James, Srini Pajjuri, — Sean Conlon, Jeffrey Wlodarczak, Jessica Fye, Fye, it's, Ameet, Thakkar, he's, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, JPMorgan, Moderna, BMO Capital Markets, GE Vernova, ARM, Research, JPMorgan downgrades Moderna, Food and Drug Administration, BMO, GE, General, Gas Power, General Electric Locations: Thursday's
The bank raised its price target on MercadoLibre Thursday to $2,500 from $2,225, suggesting 22% upside from Wednesday's close. The bank increased its price target to $230 from $200, implying nearly 16% upside from Wednesday's close. Supino also lifted the firm's price target to $93 a share, reflecting about 33% upside from Wednesday's close. Analyst Adam Berlin lowered his 12-month price target to $29 from $34, implying 6% downside. The investment firm's price target of $159 implies more than 2% downside from Wednesday's close.
Persons: Robert Ford Aguilar, — Michelle Fox, Wells, Wells Fargo, Eric Luebchow, Luebchow, Lisa Kailai Han, Sean Conlon, Wolfe, Peter Supino, Supino, Samantha Subin, BofA, George Staphos, a.m, Adam Berlin, Berlin, IPG, — Sean Conlon, Bernstein, Mark Moerdler, — Lisa Kailai Han, Stifel, Simon Yarmak, Andrea Pistacchi, Brandt Montour, it's, Montour, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, Barclays, Bank of America, Diageo, Mercado, Mobile, Sprint, Wolfe Research, UBS downgrades, UBS, billings, GM, Pfizer, Oracle, Simon Property, Property Group, SPG, U.S, New York Stock Exchange Locations: Brazil, Mercado Pago, Wells Fargo, Wells, Roku, Berlin, America, U.S
The presidential candidate has pledged to unleash universal tariffs on all US trade if elected. The firm outlined which five sectors are the most exposed to losses if Trump wins and implements tariffs. To be sure, US firms have some way of navigating higher costs associated with tariffs, Barclays said. Other economists have loudly criticized Trump's tariff idea as fuel for inflation, given that prices will rise amid a pullback in foreign products. AdvertisementAccording to Barclays, inflation would climb 0.09 percentage points in the short run, and US GDP could take a 1.2% hit in the first 12 months.
Persons: Trump's, , Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris, Trump Organizations: Barclays, Trump, Service, Democratic, Companies Locations: Mexico
Read previewLast night's contentious debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris brought the looming presidential election fully into the mainstream, even for those who've been trying to block it out. However, strategists at Oppenheimer Research believe those who ignore the election — and the implications that electing Trump or Harris may bring — do so at their peril. Advertisement"This playbook is intended to help investors navigate trading dynamics around the elections," Oppenheimer strategists wrote in a September 9 note. "We expect US foreign policy toward China to become more restrictive over the next four years, irrespective of who wins the election," Oppenheimer strategists wrote. AdvertisementBelow are seven stocks with an outperform rating from Oppenheimer analysts and can survive regardless of whether Republicans or Democrats emerge victorious this fall.
Persons: , Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, who've, Harris, Steve Eisman, Bernstein, Oppenheimer, Biden Organizations: Service, Investors, Business, Oppenheimer Research, Trump, Republicans Locations: China
China's slow post-Covid recovery could be a lasting headwind for its stock market. With the mainland's two largest indexes — the Shanghai Composite and the Shenzhen Composite — each negative so far in 2024, KraneShares Chief Investment Officer Brendan Ahern thinks government stimulus is necessary to kick-start the country's stock market performance. Ahern, whose firm runs the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) , added that Chinese households are still reluctant to spend at pre-pandemic levels. This week's post-earnings plunge in PDD Holdings is emblematic of China's consumer pullback, according to Ahern. Ahern returned to the idea that a top-down economic recovery might be necessary to stimulate China's tech sector in particular.
Persons: China's, Brendan Ahern, CNBC's, we've, Ahern Organizations: Shenzhen, CSI China Internet, country's National Bureau, Statistics, Holdings Locations: Shanghai, China, country's
Management blamed "higher interest rates and greater macroeconomic uncertainty" for pressuring consumer spending on home improvement projects. The recent data certainly supports the idea of a rate cut at the Fed's mid-September meeting. However, that's weeks away, we know things can turn on a dime in the data and the stock market. Lower rates can certainly impact the stock market — but when it comes to picking individual stocks, we remain focused on earnings. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Persons: Thursday's, Stanley Black, Decker, Stifel, bode, Russell, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Nasdaq, PPI, Management, Dow, Home Depot, Trade, Costco, Depot, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: U.S, New York City
Deere (DE) , headquartered in Moline, Illinois, manufactures agricultural machinery, heavy equipment, forestry machinery, diesel engines, and related components. One of the oldest companies in the United States, Deere traces its history back to John Deere's "self-scouring plow" in 1837. However, even assuming 50 bushels per acre and a $5/bushel average price increase, the revenue per acre would have risen by ~$250/acre. However, while Deere & Company stock has underperformed the S & P this year, its enterprise value is nearly $100 Billion, almost double the company's valuation in January 2020, just before the pandemic. Unsurprisingly, DE options are pricing in a larger-than-average 6% move when the company reports earnings on Thursday.
Persons: John Deere's, John Deere, outperforming, Massey Ferguson Organizations: Deere, Caterpillar, Deere & Company, Nasdaq, Farmers, CNH Industry, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, ~$, ~ $ $ Locations: Moline , Illinois, United States, Mexico, Holland
Depreciation costs could lead to AI stock price declines and valuation scrutiny, according to Baird's Ted Mortonson. AdvertisementThe lurking problem is that the useful lifetime of AI GPU chips can be a lot shorter than many expect, especially as AI chips go through an ever-accelerating innovation cycle, leading to higher-than-expected depreciation expenses that ultimately drag down profits. For example, the bank expects Alphabet to record $28 billion in depreciation costs in 2026, which is 24% more than current consensus estimates of $22.6 billion. AdvertisementBut even that has its limits because of how quickly Nvidia is releasing new GPU chips. And for Mortonson, it all comes back to the return on invested AI capital.
Persons: Ted Mortonson, , doesn't, outlays, Ross Sandler, Baird, Morton, Sandler, Mortonson, there's Organizations: Barclays, Service, Companies, Nvidia, Business
The recent unwinding of the yen "carry trade" could remain a long-term headwind amid already turbulent markets. JPY= YTD mountain The Japanese yen's appreciation against the U.S. dollar marked the unwinding of the so-called carry trade. "There's still quite a significant yen short position out there," Osborne said. He estimates that there is still a roughly $15 billion yen short position through July 30, still to be covered. In other words, that short position could drive more strength in the yen as that position is covered.
Persons: , Shaun Osborne, Osborne, Everyone's, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, FedWatch, Ben Emons Organizations: Bank of, U.S, Scotiabank, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Wolfe Research, Swiss Locations: Bank of Japan, Japan
U.S. stocks have whipsawed since last Friday, with a sharp sell-off followed by a bounce-back on Thursday. This led the S&P 500 to its strongest session since 2022, leaving it around the 5,310 level. The S&P 500 is facing a key test level as the consensus view of a soft landing for the U.S. economy reaches a "make or break" point, according to one strategist. But essentially what that means is a bull trap squeeze, where there's a lot of leveraged, bullish views on [the] back of a consensus soft landing view, which ultimately is now make or break." William described a bull trap as a selling point in which bullish consensus is proven wrong.
Persons: Ron William, CNBC's, William, that's, Ron William's Organizations: Advisory Locations: U.S,
In its simplest form, the yen carry trade has investors borrowing cheap yen to invest in higher yielding assets, often currencies. For example, because there is not a central source to track currency trades, we have no idea how big the yen carry trade is. The yen is rising, and that is making the yen carry trade less profitable. If the yen goes from 155 to 145, which is where it traded Monday, it will take $68,965 to repay that 10 million yen (10 million yen divided by 145 = $68,965). One positive sign: the ETF to watch is the Invesco Japanese Yen ETF (FXY), which tracks the price of the Japanese yen, had volume six times normal yesterday.
Persons: That's, Nicholas Colas Organizations: Nikkei, Street Journal, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, U.S, U.S ., Yen ETF Locations: U.S, Japan
Bitcoin was no exception to Monday's broad market rout, which gives investors a good buying opportunity, according to analysts. The flagship cryptocurrency dropped 11% over the three days ending Monday, according to Coin Metrics, pulling down the performance of stocks related to it. "As a reminder, Bitcoin historically has very strong returns in the one-year period post halving," Brett Knoblauch, an analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, said in a note Monday. Cantor has overweight ratings on eight mining stocks, including Riot Platforms , CleanSpark , Iris Energy , Core Scientific and Cipher Mining . Knoblauch said Riot Platforms, one of the largest of the mining stocks, has the best liquidity and one of the cheapest all-in costs to mine bitcoin.
Persons: Bitcoin, Brett Knoblauch, Cantor Fitzgerald, Knoblauch, Cantor, Iris, Energy, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Iris Energy, Core, Cipher
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