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☆ Stocks tiptoe higher as US inflation data offers hope
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Lawrence White | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's gauge of global equity performance (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.03% after the Labor Department's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.9% year-over-year in April, against expectations of 5%. "Bigger picture, I think the market is hyper fixated on the ‘pause’ but a pause is still restrictive overall," he said. The dollar index hit a session low of 101.36 after the headline April inflation data, while benchmark 10-year German bond yields edged down 4 basis points. Emerging markets currencies rallied on Wednesday following the U.S. data, with MSCI's index (.MIEM00000CUS) up 0.26%. Spot gold turned positive after the CPI data, last trading up 0.3%.

The Labor Department's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.9% in April from a year ago and compared with expectations of a 5% increase. "You still have a reasonably strong economy and rates that are not going any higher." ET, Dow e-minis were up 181 points, or 0.54%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 33.75 points, or 0.82%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 116.25 points, or 0.88%. Shares of regional banks rose after a few volatile sessions last week on concerns about the health of the sector. Oil and gas producer Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY.N) fell 0.9% after its first-quarter earnings fell short of analysts' estimates.

☆ Stocks stumble in jittery mood ahead of US inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

S&P 500 futures were steady and European futures rose 0.1%. "That's the thing that'd get taken out if CPI numbers come in on the higher side," said ING economist Rob Carnell. "It doesn't look particularly sensible if inflation is falling at too slow a rate and that could feed through into higher longer-term treasury yields as well." Interest rate futures imply about a 60% chance the Federal Reserve cuts rates in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool. "But the debt ceiling drama, and market participants’ focus on rate cuts is unlikely to change much from one CPI report.

☆ Stocks stumble as investors' nerves show ahead of US inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SINGAPORE, May 10 (Reuters) - Stocks were struggling to advance in Asia and the dollar was firm on Wednesday ahead of U.S. consumer price data that could damage hopes for interest rate cuts later this year if inflation fails to show much of a decline. Overnight the S&P 500 (.SPX) fell 0.5% and S&P 500 futures were steady in the Asian morning. A firm U.S. dollar pushed the euro back below $1.10 to $1.0971. Treasuries were broadly steady overnight, though debt-ceiling brinkmanship is warping the bills market as investors avoid bills maturing early in June. The dollar was also firm at 135.14 yen and has lifted slightly from recent lows on the Aussie , kiwi and sterling .

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Bracing for April’s CPI reading
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Investors are hoping April's CPI reading will show dipping prices. April's jobs report showed the labor market's still going strong, which might contribute to price pressures. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Bracing for April’s consumer price index
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Markets had a quiet Tuesday as investors braced for key inflation reports coming out later today and Thursday. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. April's jobs report showed the labor market's still going strong, which might contribute to price pressures. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ Annual inflation cooled off slightly in April
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

Minneapolis CNN —Annual inflation continued its slow-but-steady deceleration in April, according to the latest Consumer Price Index released Wednesday. The CPI climbed by 4.9% for the 12 months ended in April, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, representing a slightly slower pace of increase than the 5% in March. It’s the 10th consecutive month that the headline CPI rate has slowed, and it’s at its lowest rate since April 2021 — when this bout of painfully high inflation started to spike. Excluding food and energy costs, which tend to have more volatility, core CPI was unchanged at 5.5% for the 12 months ended in April. A welcome decline — albeit a slight one — came in the category of grocery prices, which fell 0.2% over the month, helping bring the annual rate of inflation there to 7.1%.

☆ South African rand pauses after steep fall; focus on U.S. CPI
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

JOHANNESBURG, May 10 (Reuters) - The South African rand was little changed in early trade on Wednesday after a steep fall the previous day, with global market attention firmly pinned on U.S. inflation figures due later in the day. At 0545 GMT the rand traded at 18.6425 against the U.S. currency , not far from its previous close of 18.6375. The risk-sensitive rand lost more than 1.6% against the greenback on Tuesday, as caution built ahead of Wednesday's U.S. Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) print scheduled for 1230 GMT. Economists expect the headline CPI to hold steady at an annual 5% and core CPI to moderate very slightly to 5.5%, though anything stickier could confound bets interest rates will fall. Among local drivers, South Africa's central bank governor Lesetja Kganyago will from 0900 GMT deliver a lecture on the topic: "Challenges facing the global economy: A South African Perspective".

☆ The latest inflation readings are expected to show that prices are still rising
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Stubbornly higher prices across multiple key categories of goods and services are expected to at least keep the inflation rate steady — and possibly even push levels up. That would put the respective annual inflation rates at 5%, essentially unchanged from March , and 5.5%, down just 0.1 percentage point. With inflation rising rapidly around this same time in 2022, the year-over-year comparisons should make the annual rate go down. "We continue to project inflation will ease over the course of the year with the headline CPI inflation dropping considerably in May and June as a result of base effects," UBS economist Jonathan Pringle wrote. April's nonfarm payrolls report also showed that average hourly earnings increased 0.5% on the month and 4.4% annually, both higher than expected.

☆ Stifel raises S&P 500 target on falling inflation expectations, says buy cyclical stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stifel just got more bullish on where stocks will land at the halfway point of 2023, and encouraged investors buy cyclical stocks. However, the strategist expects investors will not have to worry about a downturn until later down the road. Given this, Bannister said he's been bullish on cyclical growth and value stocks since October. Meanwhile, he expects cyclical value stocks in basic materials, capital goods, banks, transportation and others that took a hit during the regional banking crisis are "oversold" if the economy continues to hold up. He said defensive value stocks are "last year's story," while defensive growth stocks will benefit when the U.S. reaches a recession.

☆ The economist who discovered the inverted yield curve as a recession indicator now says his model will prove correct again as the Fed continues to hike rates — and that a downturn will strike anytime
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Harvey discovered the inverted yield curve as a recession indicator. Back in December, Cam Harvey made an eyebrow-raising call: the inverted yield curve, the famous recession indicator he discovered in the 1980s, would produce its first false reading since the 1960s. Harvey's yield curve looks at yields on three-month bills and 10-year notes; the latter are normally higher. Another reason Harvey's view has dimmed is that short-term inflation expectations have come down, meaning the real-yield curve (which is adjusted for inflation expectations) has now inverted. In December, Harvey said that much higher short-term inflation expectations relative to long-term expectations meant that real yields weren't inverted.

☆ Wall Street closes lower after Fed minutes, inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The minutes followed a cooler-than-expected inflation report which belied stickier underlying data and cemented the likelihood of another policy rate hike when the Fed convenes next month. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid"(Economic) data has been very mixed so investors are overacting to any positive or negative hint of Fed rate hike policy. Analysts now expect aggregate first-quarter S&P 500 earnings down 5.2% year-on-year, a stark reversal from the 1.4% annual growth seen at the beginning of the quarter. Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, seven ended in negative territory, with consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) suffering the largest percentage loss. The S&P 500 posted 12 new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 64 new highs and 187 new lows.

If the fed funds rate is discounted by core PCE inflation, the real interest rate is currently a positive 0.275%, and rising. Using annual headline PCE inflation of 5% in February, the real fed funds rate is only -0.125%. Real policy rates were positive for at least two decades up until 2002. For its part, the Fed sees the real fed funds rate ending this year around +180 bps, based on its median fed funds and PCE inflation projections of 5.1% and 3.3%, respectively. Bank of America rates strategists think this is far too optimistic, and real policy rates will be much lower.

☆ Instant View: Here’s what experts think of India's surprise rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +16 min

The monetary policy committee (MPC) retained the key lending rate or the repo rate (INREPO=ECI) at 6.50% in a unanimous decision. With the likely softening of CPI to the low- to mid-5% levels in the coming month, the current repo rate of 6.5% implies that India’s real policy rate will hover around 1% during 2023-24, while maintaining a policy rate differential of about 1.5% with the US. Room for additional rate hikes has been retained with MPC’s policy stance continuing to remain unchanged at ‘withdrawal of accommodation’. We believe the bar for future rate hikes has increased, especially since near-term prints of CPI will be sub 6%. Scope for further hikes is limited given our growth-inflation outlook and impact of the past rate hikes on the same.

New York CNN —A key measure of inflation fell dramatically in February, according to the latest Producer Price Index, which tracks what America’s producers get paid for their goods and services. Producer price increases slowed to an annual pace of 4.6% last month, significantly down from 6% in January, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Refinitiv had been expecting the 12-month rise in wholesale prices to slow to a 5.4% increase. Those are down from January’s downwardly revised 5% annual price gain and 0.1% monthly increase. The latest Consumer Price Index, which was released Tuesday, showed prices were up 6% during the 12 months ended in February.

☆ Inflation gauge increased 0.4% in February, as expected and up 6% from a year ago
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.5% in February and 5.5% on a 12-month basis. The consumer price index increased 0.4% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 6%, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. Inflation rose in February but was in line with expectations, likely keeping the Federal Reserve on track for another interest rate hike next week despite recent banking industry turmoil. Food prices rose 0.4% and 9.5% respectively. That entails core services inflation minus housing, cohort that increased 0.2% in February and 3.7% from a year ago, according to CNBC calculations.

☆ The Fed will have a political problem while headline CPI is moderating, says Cerity's Jim Lebenthal
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed will have a political problem while headline CPI is moderating, says Cerity's Jim LebenthalCNBC’s ‘Halftime Report’ investment committee, Stephanie Link, Jim Lebenthal and Kari Firestone, discuss Fed Chair Jerome Powell's statements during his congressional hearing.

☆ US manufacturing sector still shrinking; raw material prices rebound
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Nevertheless, the rebound in prices at the factory gate suggests inflation could remain elevated for a while after monthly consumer and producer prices surged in January. The ISM's manufacturing PMI edged up to 47.7 last month from 47.4 in January. Paper products, textile mills, furniture and related products as well as nonmetallic mineral products, computer and electronic products were among the 14 reporting contraction. Comments from some manufacturers in the ISM survey were supportive of this thesis. Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said "new order rates remain sluggish due to buyer and supplier disagreements regarding price levels and delivery lead times."

☆ The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge will be the big market hurdle of next week
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-18 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Most important this week is Friday's core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index for January. In comparison, the consumer price index (CPI), released this past week, only tracks price changes over time. The market is expecting the core PCE price index to rise 0.4% monthly and 4.9% annually. In addition to the core PCE price index, we're going to be looking closely at the housing and utilities component. Lastly, the January producer price index came in hotter than expected, rising 0.7% from December versus expectations for 0.4% increase.

☆ Dollar finds friends after sticky U.S. inflation readout
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, Feb 15 (Reuters) - The dollar found some support on Wednesday after stubbornly high U.S. inflation suggested interest rates are going to remain high for longer than investors had expected. The U.S. dollar climbed to a six-week high of 133.30 yen and sat not far below that at 132.73 early in the Asia session. "Inflation remains too high," Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joe Capurso said. There is not much good news for (the Fed) that is looking for inflation to head down much further towards its 2% target." Federal Reserve officials said the U.S. central bank will need to keep gradually raising interest rates to beat inflation.

☆ Asian Shares track Wall Street's inflation optimism, yen recoups losses
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Overnight on Wall Street, the S&P 500 (.SPX) rose 1.2%, while the Nasdaq (.IXIC) rallied 1.5% and Dow Jones (.DJI) was up 1.1%. Treasuries rallied a little, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year government bonds easing 2 basis points to 3.6940%. The two-year bond yields also eased from their three-month highs to hover at 4.5090%, compared with the previous close of 4.5340%. It weakened 0.2% against the Japanese yen to 132.13 yen, after gaining 0.8% the previous day. On Tuesday, the Japanese government is expected to name academic Kazuo Ueda as its pick to become next central bank governor.

☆ Fed still has work to do on inflation but it doesn't derail our view we're in a bull market
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

We think the market is looking past these readings to what Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently highlighted as the central bank's main focus, core services excluding housing or so-called super core. Super core inflation Keying in on this sub-index is going to be crucial if we are going to try and think about additional rate hikes from here from the perspective of a Fed official. Here are the top services components in the CPI data outside of food, energy, and housing and how they're trending. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on February 14, 2023 in New York City.

☆ Morning Bid: Wings of a Dove
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

U.S. President Joe Biden is expected on Tuesday to name Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard to a top White House economic policy position, replacing National Economic Council Director Brian Deese. Biden confidant Jared Bernstein is expected to replace Cecilia Rouse as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers. Brainard was seen as a powerful voice cautioning against over-aggressive Fed policy tightening. U.S. stock futures and world equities were higher on Tuesday, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar were steady to lower. Euro zone economic growth slowed in the last three months of 2022 but avoided a contraction many had predicted for months.

☆ Gold firms in run-up to U.S. inflation reading
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Meat bans, soaring gold prices and Britain voting to 'un–Brexit' could be on the cards for 2023, according to Saxo's Outrageous Predictions. Gold prices rose on Tuesday as the dollar retreated, with investors bracing for U.S. inflation data that could determine the Federal Reserve's next moves in its monetary policy plans. Spot gold was up 0.2% at $1,857.22 per ounce, as of 0305 GMT, after falling to its lowest since early January in the previous session. Gold is highly sensitive to rising interest rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. Several Fed policymakers have recently signaled that more interest rate hikes were needed to bring inflation down to its 2% target.

☆ Are we on the brink of a corporate credit crisis?
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Economists at S&P Global Ratings forecast that speculative-grade (perceived to have a lower level of credit quality compared to more highly rated, investment-grade, companies) corporate default rates in the US and Europe will double this year alone. So are we on the brink of a corporate credit crisis? Before the Bell spoke with Ruth Yang, managing director and global head of thought leadership at S&P Global Ratings to discuss what lies ahead for the corporate credit market. Before the Bell: What’s your big picture view of the credit economy right now? There will be slower growth with thinner margins and that’s going to change how people look at their investment opportunities.

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