Top related persons:
Top related locs:
Top related orgs:

Search resuls for: "Haefele"


25 mentions found


NEW YORK, March 10 (Reuters) - A critical inflation report next week will test a U.S. stock market already consumed by worries over Federal Reserve hawkishness and potential fallout from the largest bank failure since the financial crisis. A hotter-than-expected consumer price report on Tuesday, however, could reignite fears of jumbo-sized Fed rate hikes like those that rocked markets last year. After a big rebound in January, the benchmark index is now clinging to a 0.6% gain for 2023. The consumer price report is followed the next day by more inflation data, on producer prices. Besides signs of falling inflation, reassurance for investors could come if it became clearer that SVB’s issues were unlikely to spread.
The reading is likely to show nonfarm payrolls grew by 205,000 jobs in February, less than half of the eye-popping 517,000 additions in January. The unemployment rate is forecast to stay unchanged at 3.4%, the lowest since May 1969. "The strength of the January jobs data came as a surprise to markets," said Mark Haefele Chief Investment Officer, UBS Global Wealth Management in a note. ET, Dow e-minis were down 127 points, or 0.39%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 11.75 points, or 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 4.5 points, or 0.04%. Among other stocks, Gap Inc (GPS.N) fell 6.7% in premarket trading after the apparel maker posted a bigger-than-expected fourth-quarter loss and forecast full-year sales below Wall Street estimates, signaling a slowdown in demand.
The S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK) dropped 6.6% on Thursday and was set to open lower again on Friday. The crisis at SVG was feeding growing investor concerns that banks will be vulnerable to the rising cost of money. In an unusual step, Commerzbank, one of Germany's largest banks, issued a statement, playing down any threat from SVB, saying it did not see "a corresponding risk for us". "The market is treating this as a potential contagion risk," said Antoine Bouvet, senior rates strategist at ING in London. A spike in interest rates has led to a sell-off in bonds, leaving banks exposed to potential losses on the securities they hold.
[1/2] European Central Bank and SVB (Silicon Valley Bank) logos are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. SVB, which does business as Silicon Valley Bank, was not immediately available for comment. "Silicon Valley Bank is shedding light on vulnerabilities across the US banking sector, primarily in the bond holdings that many large institutions hold," said Karl Schamotta, Chief Market Strategist at Corpay. “The current liquidity run on Silicon Valley Bank is having a knock-on effect on the wider banking system," said Rick Seehra, Prudential Lead at Bovill. But banking experts said SVB's issues were unique and the worries about the broader sector were not warranted.
Experts at BofA and UBS recently wrote about their approaches for investing in the theme. Tech analyst Dan Ives doubled his price target on AI pure play C3.AI, which has soared almost 150%. One of the market's splashiest artificial intelligence newcomers is here to stay, says Wedbush tech stock analyst Dan Ives. On Friday Ives boosted his price target on AI software company C3.AI from $13 per share all the way to $24. "The company continues to experience increased demand for its AI solutions that are designed to increase a range of applications across industries fueling tailwinds in the market," Ives wrote.
And it's little surprise the International Monetary Fund forecast Britain would be the only economy of the G7 to contract this year. But certainly the potential for improved trade relations with the UK's biggest trading partner is clear. Unicredit this month cited estimates that the UK economy would underperform by 5-7% over 10 years if it remains outside the EU single market and customs union. It may even have been a key spur to this week's breakthrough given the frayed geopolitical backdrop. President Joe Biden has long insisted there would be no progress on a U.S. deal with Britain until the Northern Irish conundrum was resolved.
In other words, the risk-reward ratio for stocks — or the equity risk premium — has to make sense, or else why take the risk by investing in them? 10 places to investDespite the lackluster outlook for stocks, strategists still say there are plenty of investing opportunities. The Vanguard US Quality Factor ETF (VFQY) and the Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF (FSTA) offer exposure to the above areas of the market. This supports our preference for emerging markets, and our preference for Germany and consumer stocks in Europe. Within defensives, we like consumer staples over healthcare, which we downgraded this month.
Beaten-up travel stocks have also enjoyed solid gains this year, as investors bet that the worst-case fears of an imminent recession may turn out to be for naught and consumers catch up on missed travel. Some fear this ferocious rebound in consumer and tech stocks may be happening too quickly. “That means there are broader opportunities outside of tech and growth stocks and more in the value and small cap sectors.”Growth stocks, and tech in particular, make more sense as investments if the Fed were set to start slashing interest rates. Add all that up and it could mean that the recent rebound for Tesla, big techs and media firms and other consumer stocks could be short-lived. “Inflation and interest rate uncertainty means we continue to believe value stocks, including the global energy sector, will outperform growth stocks,” Haefele said.
Crude oil prices are on track to end February lower, for their fourth monthly loss in a row. But many analysts expect prices to rise again in March as Russia slashes its oil output. Higher interest rates in the US weigh on oil prices because they curb consumer demand and drag on economic activity. But many analysts expect oil prices to rally again once Russia starts cutting its production levels. Moscow said earlier in February that it plans to cut its oil output by 500,000 barrels a day in March, as Ukraine sanctions hit its ability to find willing buyers.
The semiconductor sector has seen quite a turnaround of late. Chip stocks were among the worst performers last year, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) shedding more than 35% of its value. Despite this, chip stocks have flown somewhat under the radar since the beginning of the year as the buzz around artificial intelligence and a recovery in Big Tech dominated investor attention. While the semiconductor sector is notorious for its cyclicality and boom-bust cycles, several Wall Street pros are urging investors to take a longer-term view. Europe stock ideas In Europe, a raft of chip stocks made Bank of America 's list of "2023 European Best Stock Ideas."
But when US stocks deliver low annualized returns over a 10-year period, international stocks almost always deliver better performance. They included: global value vs. growth; emerging value equities; Japanese small value; and European small value. Among those, Inker and GMO are plugging the most money into global value and emerging market value stocks. Perfect timing would have seen investors hold their fire in emerging markets in 2001-02 to hit the very bottom. "Emerging-markets value, international value represent bargains.
According to figures from the World Federation of Exchanges, U.S. equity market cap accounted for 41.0% of the world total last year. That was just below the previous year's 42.0%, which was the highest since 2003.chartBased on WFE data, U.S. market share has averaged 38.3% since 2000. Meanwhile, global equity market data provider MSCI estimates that U.S. market cap as a share of the global total hit a record high around 62% in 2021. THAT SHRINKING FEELINGAccording to Datastream, global market cap is around $85 trillion, down from a peak of just under $100 trillion in late 2021. chartShrinking the U.S. slice of the global market cap pie will take time, but there are indications that investors' U.S. equity holdings have already been cut significantly.
Stocks have responded positively, with the S&P 500 rising as much as 9.3% since the start of the year. "An improvement in US and global macro data has lifted the S&P 500 by 8% YTD and leads us to lift our 3-month S&P 500 target to 4000 (from 3600). Morgan StanleyMike Wilson, the bank's chief US equity strategist, has been warning of downside in the S&P 500 to fall for weeks now. In other words, this earnings recession is not priced, in our view." Wilson had the most accurate price target for the S&P 500 in 2022 among major Wall Street Strategists.
Here are Morningstar's top 10 stock picks that are trading as much as 35% below fair market value. 2023 has barely begun, but the stock market is already off to the races. But the ongoing market rally has revealed investors' newfound optimism around peaking inflation, China's reopening, and hopes for a dovish Federal Reserve pivot sometime this year. Still, the question remains: is this finally the bull market rally investors have been waiting for, or is it doomed to eventually collapse? The full list of 10 stocks is below, along with each firm's ticker, industry, market capitalization, and current price-to-fair value ratio.
The S&P 500’s (.SPX) 6.2% surge in January has been accompanied by a drop in measures of volatility across the board. The drop in market gyrations has triggered a buy-signal for certain computer-driven strategies including volatility control funds, risk parity funds and Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs). Volatility control funds have raised their equity allocation to a nine-month high of 57.7%, strategists at Deutsche Bank wrote on Friday. Grinacoff, of BNP Paribas, estimates volatility control funds have assets of about $275 billion, while CTAs, not all of which have a volatility control strategy, as a group have $800 billion allocated across strategies. "Market volatility measured by VIX remains stuck above the 18 level, which is its long-term average.
UBS's Mark Haefele says there's a strong possibility the January market rally is a "head fake." But the rally has sputtered to a halt after US stocks sold off this week to erase half the gains they've made in 2023. "But it remains possible that the rally is a 'head fake,' and that economic data will ultimately disappoint." This may be due in part to a strong labor market keeping wage growth robust. And despite energy's astonishing rally last year, Haefele still believes that there's still room to go for the sector.
He says stocks have minimal upside, and could drop another 15% to 20% in a recession. Many of the leading indicators suggest an earnings contraction is likely," wrote Haefele, the groups' chief investment officer, in a recent note to clients. "In a downside scenario where we have a full-blown recession, stocks could fall 15% to 20%," Haefele wrote. With limited upside for stocks, Haefele says investors should play defense for now. Haefele adds that value stocks are trading at lower valuations than growth stocks, which makes them a better choice.
Jan 19 (Reuters) - Chinese companies are expected to report their highest earnings growth in five years, Refinitiv data shows, as economic reopening after COVID lockdowns and accommodative monetary policy raise hopes for higher profits. According to Refinitiv IBES data, China's large and mid-cap companies' profits are seen rising 16.2% in 2023, the fastest growth since 2017. The Reuters analysis showed utilities, consumer staples and consumer discretionary sectors are expected to lead growth with their estimated profit growth of 34.5%, 33.5% and 27.8%, respectively. Meanwhile, the tech sector is expected to see earnings growth of 27% compared with 9.4% in 2022 while the property sector would witness 9.4% higher profits after a 4.9% drop last year. read more"We expect China to outperform Asia ex-Japan due to its faster-than-anticipated reopening, continuing domestic policy support, and potential for stronger earnings growth," said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, in a note this month.
The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) was down 0.8% at 0929 GMT, and on track to snap a six-day winning streak. Energy stocks (.SXEP) fell 1.9%, tracking weakness in crude prices, after U.S. economic data stoked fears of recession in the world's largest economy. "Economic data remains noisy, making it hard to say for certain that the recent encouraging economic trends will continue," said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot added to the chorus, saying markets may be underestimating planned rate hikes by the European Central Bank and investors should take more seriously its forecast to raise rates in multiples of 50 basis points. Investors are focussed on minutes from last month's European Central Bank meeting due later in the day, as well as an appearance from ECB President Christine Lagarde at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Along the Davos Promenade in 2023 there were fewer crypto companies than in previous years after the market crash. Last year, crypto firms from all walks of life took over the place. But since the market slide, there are far fewer crypto firms with flashy store fronts at Davos. He added that the crypto firms that have remained at Davos are "substantiative projects" and "the real deals" versus things like NFTs. There were also those in traditional finance who welcomed fewer crypto firms.
The stock-market rally at the start of 2023 faces risks from still-elevated inflation, UBS Global Wealth Management said. Central bankers are monitoring core prices, which rose in the euro area and the US in December. "The possibility that core inflation is sticker than expected remains a risk for markets." In the US, core prices increased by 0.3% as monthly shelter costs drove higher by 0.8%. "While the strong start to the year is welcome and we believe more risk-tolerant investors can start to anticipate an inflection point in 2023, we advise against complacency," Haefele wrote.
Economic data released Tuesday in China show its growth slowed amid the government's zero-COVID policy. That growth for 2022 is below expectations of 5.5% GDP growth that Chinese officials had set. The data showed the impact from the government's zero-COVID policy. Gross domestic product data released early Tuesday in China showed growth was below the 8.1% increase in GDP that the country reported for 2021. GDP in China rose 2.9% in the fourth quarter from a year prior, according to a press release.
Since the start of November, hedge funds have been consistent net buyers of China equities for eight of the past 10 weeks, according to data from Morgan Stanley. After witnessing the massive rebound from the pandemic low in U.S. stocks, hedge funds are betting that the same scenario will play out in China as it tries to return to a pre-pandemic "normal" after ending most Zero Covid controls. Since November, 80% of hedge fund buying activity has come from hedge funds adding long positions in China, while 20% was from short covering, Morgan Stanley said. Investors getting in early on the trade are betting that China's economy will suffer a deeper — albeit shorter —setback. "Such a dramatic U-turn then implies deeper economic contraction in 4Q22 but also faster reopening and recovery in 2023."
In 2022, experts said that the global economy would get a boost after China lifted its strict zero-COVID restrictions. He added that later in the year the tide could turn, and he expects China's economy to grow 5% by the end of 2023. "China's reopening is also a positive for Asian IG and HY bonds, in particular Chinese property developers," he said. That's had a significant effect on the global economy because China has been the largest single source of global economic growth for many years. That means the fate of China's economy this year will have a major effect on the performance of the global economy.
"We're going to have a spending boom in China, at least in the first half of the year," said Mehran Nakhjavani, emerging market strategist at MRB Partners. How to play emerging markets in 2023 Regardless, there are several ways for investors to get exposure to emerging markets. Perhaps the easiest way is by investing in the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM). Another vehicle through which to play emerging markets is the First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap AlphaDex ETF (FEMS) . The fund is the best-performing emerging markets ETF this year, according to Morningstar, with a year-to-date return of just over 1%.
Total: 25