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Top investors are dumping emerging market equities and buying U.S. stocks at a record pace due to concerns about a potential global crisis, according to Bank of America investment strategist Michael Hartnett. The BofA Global Fund Manager Survey showed that September saw a record jump in investor allocation to the U.S., and out of emerging market securities. The shift in asset allocation stemmed from a significant decline in China growth expectations. Bank of America's survey showed none of the respondents now expect a stronger economy in China, versus 78% when polled in February. Bank of America's survey showed investors see China real estate as the No.1 source of the next global credit event.
Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America, Global, Survey, Bank of, People's Bank of Locations: U.S, China, Beijing, People's Bank of China
[1/3] Brett Isaac, founder and co-CEO of Navajo Power, attends the first annual Tribal Energy Equity Summit in Saint Paul, Minnesota, U.S., May 22, 2023. Tribes cannot access key incentives for larger clean energy projects until they secure an agreement to connect to the regional electrical grid. That could jeopardize a "once in a lifetime opportunity,” according to Cheri Smith, president of the Alliance for Tribal Clean Energy, a nonprofit that is helping tribes develop clean energy. The Standing Rock Sioux have so far spent $3 million on technical studies and fees to remain in the queue, with no guarantee of approval. A NEW DAYThe Standing Rock Sioux tribe's development authority, called SAGE, proposed the 235MW wind farm three years ago.
Persons: Brett Isaac, Sarah Arnoff Yeoman, Cheri Smith, Smith, Joe McNeil, McNeil, Eileen Briggs, Greg Anderson, Alliance's Smith, Jeremiah Baumann ,, Willie Phillips, Alliance’s Smith, Celeste Miller, It’s, , Valerie Volcovici, Richard Valdmanis, Suzanne Goldenberg Organizations: Navajo Power, Tribal Energy Equity Summit, REUTERS, Alliance for Tribal Clean Energy, Reuters, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Energy Information Administration, SAGE, Dakota, Interior Department, Southwest, Sierra Club Foundation, Wallace Global Fund, Bush Foundation, Moapa, Tesla, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Energy, Interior, Infrastructure, DOE, FERC, Thomson Locations: Navajo, Saint Paul , Minnesota, U.S, Sioux, North, South Dakota, United States, Phoenix, Bismarck , North Dakota, philanthropies, Paiute, Nevada, Las Vegas, St, Paul , Minnesota
Higher-for-longer rate bets lift dollar, sap stocks
  + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
Long-term Treasury yields hovered at a two-week high of nearly 4.28% and close to last month's post-financial crisis highs. "It all goes back to the discussion of where that magical neutral rate happens to be," he said. "While the markets are still feeling around for where that rate may be, it's going to weigh on equities and support the U.S. The dollar index - which measures the currency against six developed-market peers, including the yen and euro - ticked up 0.07% to 104.93. Reporting by Marc Jones; Additional reporting by Kevin Buckland in Tokyo; Editing by Susan FentonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Kim Kyung, Robert Alster, Brent, Europe's, hasn't, Kyle Rodda, Kit Juckes, Marc Jones, Kevin Buckland, Susan Fenton Organizations: Tokyo Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S, for Supply Management, Federal, Asset Management, Japan's Nikkei, Reuters, Traders, Federal Reserve, Capital.com, U.S ., Treasury, Generale, People's Bank of China, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Europe, U.S, New York, Asia, Melbourne, China
Investors’ China aversion is bad for everyone
  + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Una Galani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
FIERCE RESTRAINTAs a country on the cusp of high-income status, China ought to be a magnet for overseas investors. Companies in the MSCI China Index trade at 10 times their expected earnings for the next twelve months, half the level of the S&P 500 Index. However, assets following these mandates remain insignificant compared to the $1.3 trillion benchmarked to MSCI’s Emerging Markets Index. However, they have played a bigger role in the past decade funding Chinese companies through Hong Kong and U.S. listings. Chinese equities have a combined market value of $15 trillion, greater than Japanese, French, Indian and British stocks combined.
Persons: Xi Jinping, Goldman Sachs, Gavekal Dragonomics, Gavekal, Tesla, John Welling, Dow, Xi, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, U.S . Federal, People’s Bank of, Treasury, HK, Companies, Apple, Microsoft, BlackRock, China, WHO, International, U.S, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Dow Jones, Global, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, China, People’s Republic, People’s Bank of China, United States, Hong Kong, U.S, Gulf, Asia, North America, Shanghai, Shenzhen
China’s pollution levels in 2021 had fallen 42% from 2013, according to a new report released Tuesday, making it a rare success story in the region, where pollution is getting worse in some parts, including South Asia. The improvement means the average Chinese citizen’s lifespan is now 2.2 years longer, the report said. In 2021, Beijing recorded its best monthly air quality since records began in 2013. But, the report warned, there is still work to do as China remains the world’s 13th most polluted country. While China’s particulate pollution levels are within its national standards, they “significantly exceed” the World Health Organization’s (WHO) guidelines, the report said.
Persons: Greg Baker, China’s, , Health Organization’s, Organizations: Hong Kong CNN —, Getty, Energy, Institute, University of Chicago, Health, CNN Locations: Hong Kong, South Asia, Beijing, AFP, China, United States, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Africa
Here are 20 stocks that hedge funds are gravitating toward in this uncertain market. Although several economic signals have offered investors reasons for optimism right now, hedge funds can't seem to shake their cautious convictions. Bank of AmericaManagers of hedge funds and long-only funds have shifted toward defensive stocks over the last few years, according to Bank of America. 20 stocks hedge funds love nowWhile hedge funds are playing defense until further notice, that's not to say they're bearish. Below are the 20 stocks that hedge funds are unusually bullish about along with the ticker, sector, and net relative weight in hedge funds for each.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, defensives, Subramanian, that's Organizations: Bank of America, BofA's, Equity Locations: defensives,
[1/2] People walk past the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) sign at its building on the Financial Street in Beijing, China July 9, 2021. Fang Xinghai, a vice chairman of the CSRC hosted the meeting from Beijing, the sources said. An executive from Fidelity International was among those from the large funds attending, according to one of the sources. Bloomberg first reported the CSRC meeting on Friday. However, the modest stimulus has so far failed to satisfy investors, who want a stronger policy response, including massive government spending.
Persons: Tingshu Wang, HONG KONG, Fang Xinghai, Selena Li, Sumeet Chatterjee, Sharon Singleton Organizations: China Securities Regulatory Commission, REUTERS, Reuters, The China Securities, Regulatory, Fidelity International, Fidelity, Bloomberg, Thomson Locations: China, Beijing, HONG
In climate negotiations, "loss and damage" refers to existing costs incurred from climate-fueled weather impacts, such last year's devastating Pakistan flooding. The U.S. is part of a 24-country committee deciding how the fund will work before the COP28 climate summit in Dubai can officially adopt it this year. Both voted to approve new funding arrangements under the condition that the fund not be about liability for rich countries and compensation. Instead, both Washington and Brussels say the fund should be filled from myriad sources including industry taxes, philanthropic donations or other schemes. The world’s least developed nations want the fund to be limited to the neediest nations.
Persons: Akhtar Soomro, that's, , Sue Biniaz, Biniaz, Christina Chan, , “ That’s, Avinash Persaud, Mia Mottley, Persaud, Dileimy Orzoco, Valerie Volcovici, Katy Daigle, Josie Kao Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, . State Department, Reuters, The, State Department, EU, Nonprofit, Thomson Locations: Sehwan, Pakistan, U.S, Washington, The U.S, Dubai, Dominican Republic, Paris, Brussels, China, Barbados, Philippines
Michael Burry, the “Big Short” investor who became famous for correctly predicting the epic collapse of the housing market in 2008, also made a gigantic bet last quarter on a Wall Street crash. Bank of America released its August global fund manager survey on Tuesday and found that money managers are feeling the least pessimistic about markets since February 2022. So what do Buffett and Burry know that the rest of us don’t? Russia and Ukraine: Global inflation is finally coming down, but heightened geopolitical tensions threaten to raise food and oil prices across the globe. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to stoke fears of increased commodity prices, global economic instability and uncertainty around security.
Persons: Warren, Berkshire Hathaway, That’s, Michael Burry, Buffett, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase, hasn’t, Fitch, , Gregory Daco, Catherine Thorbecke, Catherine Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Securities, Exchange, Scion Asset Management, Bank of America, Traders, National Bureau of Statistics, JPMorgan, CNBC, Bank, First Republic Bank, Huntington Bank, PacWest, Western Alliance, Commerce Department Locations: New York, China, Ukraine, Russia, stoke, Huntington, Lahaina , Hawaii, Lahaina, Las Vegas, Maui
And with China's post-COVID recovery running into the ground and suffering a deepening real estate bust, western investment curbs throw more sand in the wheels. A question now is whether a retreat of western money from emerging markets at least partly explains both their recent underperformance and that of western government bonds, in which emerging central banks and sovereign funds are heavily invested. The picture has not been much better in aggregate emerging bond indices, even if they have done marginally better than developed world counterparts, and worries over emerging high-yield and property linked bonds are rising. Have global investors high-tailed it from emerging markets already? If western money grows more wary and is increasingly warned off China and other selective emerging investments, will there be a mutual pullback of official emerging money from western bond markets?
Persons: Aly, Joe Biden, Morgan, Biden, crumb, Mike Dolan, Richard Chang Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, U.S ., Bank of, Institute for International Finance, Treasury, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, Ukraine, Washington, Russia, United States, Beijing, Moscow, Taiwan, Brazil, India, South Africa, Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia, South Korea
"Bear positioning strong tailwind for risk assets in H1…not the case in H2," Hartnett wrote in a summary of the closely watched survey. Cash allocations have dropped to 4.8% of portfolios, below the 5% dividing line that has traditionally been a buy signal. Even if there is a recession, managers expect it to be mild, with 65% expecting a "soft landing." Allocation to stocks is the least underweight as a share of portfolios since April 2022 and up 13 percentage points from July. The survey was taken Aug. 4-10 and entailed 247 panelists with $635 billion in assets under management.
Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, REITs, Lehman Organizations: Bank of America, Survey, FMS
HONG KONG, Aug 15 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Hong Kong has lost some permanent appeal. The introduction of two sets of approvals was mandated three decades ago when foreign investors wanted additional protections to invest in the first wave of Chinese firms listing in Hong Kong. China's domestic securities laws have since developed and global investors can now directly buy shares onshore through various channels. That could lead to more onshore shares being issued relative to offshore shares, further diluting minority owners in Hong Kong. In 2020, Hong Kong shareholders vetoed the Bank of Zhengzhou's proposal to avoid such an outcome.
Persons: Hong Kong, HKEX, Una Galani, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Hong Kong Exchanges, HK, China Securities Regulatory Commission, Asia Securities Industry, Financial Markets Association, Corporate Governance Association, China Life Insurance, Wall, Hong, Bank of, Companies, Global, Hang Seng China Enterprise Index, Graphics Global, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, Hong Kong, China, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hong
The National Bank of Canada logo is seen outside of a branch in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, February 14, 2019. National Bank said in a statement it will acquire the C$1 billion ($752 million) loan portfolio made up of technology, life science and global fund banking sectors. National Bank already has made a number of bets in the tech space in Canada investing in fintech firms such as KOHO, Synctera and Flinks over the years. Veritas Investment Research analyst Nigel D'Souza said the deal does not restrict National Bank from acquiring Laurentian Bank (LB.TO), but that deal was now less likely. "We continue to view National Bank as the best fit among the Big Six banks for Laurentian," D'Souza said.
Persons: Chris Wattie, Michael Denham, Denham, Tuyen Vo, Nigel D'Souza, D'Souza, Jaiveer Singh, Will Dunham, Krishna Chandra Eluri, Shilpi Majumdar Organizations: National Bank of Canada, REUTERS, National Bank, National Bank's Technology, Innovation Banking, Bank, Veritas Investment Research, Laurentian Bank, Big, Thomson Locations: Ottawa , Ontario, Canada, U.S, Silicon, Bengaluru
LONDON, July 28 (Reuters) - A reappraisal of the dollar could be the next big "pain trade". Dollar jumps as US 2-year yield premium builds vs G7Net short dollar contracts from CFTCBofA chart on fund managers dollar viewSMILEFor the dollar at least, it starts to look less of a one-way rate bet. For those who favour intra-G7 interest rate differentials for guidance, the picture is not much better for dollar bears. But if "soft landings", disinflation and buoyant markets continue to rule the roost, it may be hard work for the outsize "anti-dollar" bet. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: There's, BoE, What's, it's, Mike Dolan, Alison Williams Organizations: Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Treasury, Bank of England, gilts, ECB, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: U.S, Japan
Companies Standard Chartered PLC FollowJuly 31 (Reuters) - China's Ant Group and Standard Chartered (STAN.L) said on Monday they will work together in green finance and global fund management, broadening their existing partnership. The deal is the first high-profile tie-up between Ant and a major foreign bank since authorities cancelled a planned mega-IPO by the fintech giant in 2020. StanChart will help Ant build "an industry-leading global liquidity and foreign exchange management structure", they said in a joint statement. They also plan to enhance collaboration in environmental, social and governance, digital innovation and inclusive finance, the statement said. Ant also hired StanChart as one of the lead arrangers and book runners for the $6.5 billion sustainability-linked syndicated loan it took out last year.
Persons: StanChart, Ant, Roxanne Liu, Selena Li, Edwina Gibbs Organizations: Chartered, Standard Chartered, Thomson Locations: China
REUTERS/Nir Elias/Illustration//File PhotoLONDON, July 30 (Reuters) - Israel's economy may face ratings downgrades, falling foreign investment and a weaker tech sector if turmoil arising from the government's contentious judicial reforms continues, investors and analysts warn. Reuters GraphicsMaplecroft's Kinnear said comparatively low inflation versus similar countries had buoyed investment, but more civil unrest could derail incoming cash. The reform backlash "threatens to push the economy onto a permanently lower growth path," Nicholas Farr, emerging Europe economist with Capital Economics wrote in a note. Moody's cut Israel's sovereign credit to a "dislike" stance, while S&P said on Thursday the unprecedented protests would lower economic growth this year. S&P warned in May that it could lower its AA- Israel rating "if regional or domestic political risks escalated sharply, depressing Israel's economic, fiscal, and balance-of-payments metrics."
Persons: Nir Elias, Benjamin, Hamish Kinnear, Reuters Graphics Maplecroft's Kinnear, Morgan Stanley, Roger Mark, Mark, Kinnear, Nicholas Farr, Moody's, Fitch, Natalia Gurushina, VanEck, Libby George, Marc Jones, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Middle East, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Copley Fund Research, Reuters Graphics, Gross, TECH, Israeli Innovation Authority, Capital Economics, P, Fitch, AA, Thomson Locations: Israel, North Africa, Europe
LONDON, July 26 (Reuters) - Even as fears of a 2023 U.S. recession recede and stock market bears concede defeat, there's scant sign of party mode. After wild swings of output, prices, employment, liquidity and interest rates, firm convictions about the precise onset of "technical" recessions - or even previously reliable gauges of bull and bear markets - have all become a bit suspect. Whether on a domestic or global scale, aggregate views of the economy, or stock market, right now are likely misleading. A bull to bear market and back again in little over 18 months - or so it seems. SP 500 2023 YTD THROUGH JULY 21BLUNTEDChief among the puzzles is the variable impact of sharply higher interest rates on both households and firms.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Morgan Stanley, Andrew Lapthorne, Russell, Mike Dolan Organizations: Reuters Graphics, Barclays, International Monetary Fund, Tuesday, eventual, San Francisco Federal Reserve, Generale, Fed, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: U.S, midyear
That has helped pressure many of the market’s popular dividend-paying stocks, which investors had turned to when rates were far lower. "The dividend-paying value side of the market is a pretty compelling place to go to maintain that return." Nevertheless, investors are seeking out dividend-paying stocks as a source of total return this year in anticipation that bond yields may falter while stocks continue to gain, Silverblatt said. “If you are going into dividend paying stocks now, you are taking that risk because you think there's a high probability that the market goes up," he said. Corso is searching for dividend-paying companies in cyclical sectors such as financials, where valuations are less expensive.
Persons: Jurrien Timmer, Howard Silverblatt, Dow, Silverblatt, hadn't, Cliff Corso, Corso, Bryant VanCronkhite, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili Organizations: YORK, Federal Reserve, Fidelity Investments, BoFA Global Research, Dow Jones Indices, Companies, Asset Management, Fed, Allspring Global Investments, Thomson
A key consideration before buying dividend-paying stocks is whether they can sustain long-term yields. Adding dividend-paying stocks to a portfolio is one way to navigate the bearish sentiment. Dividend-paying stocks experience less volatility because investors often hold on to them for their yields. A key consideration before buying dividend-paying stocks is whether they can sustain long-term yields. Below is Morningstar's list of the 10 best dividend-paying stocks with strong financials.
Persons: Morningstar's David Harrell, Susan Dziubinski, isn't, David Harrell, Dan Lefkovitz, Harrell Organizations: Bank of America, Morningstar, Verizon, Comcast Locations: Wells Fargo
CNBC Daily Open: Investment banking sees signs of life
  + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Banking on Bank of AmericaInvestors pushed Bank of America shares up 4.42% on the bank's earnings and revenue beat for the second quarter. Profit rose 19% to $7.41 billion while revenue increased 11% to $25.33 billion, helped by a 14% jump in net interest income. But fund managers are still cautious, according to the latest Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey.
Persons: Ocado, Morgan Morgan Stanley's, James Gorman's, we've Organizations: CNBC, Dow Jones, Microsoft, Revenue, Bank of America Investors, Bank of America, Bank of America Global Fund, Survey
The July Bank of America Fund Managers Survey, a survey of more than 200 global fund managers, out today, indicates that 68% expect a "soft landing", while only 21% expect a "hard landing" (4% expect "no landing"). That estimate for a "soft landing" has been rising for several months. One of the underpinnings of a rising market is high levels of skepticism because it represents people who would come back into the market. But with a lot of investors jumping back in, it makes it harder for the market to advance. The market now has two problems: 1) rising levels of bullishness, and 2) high valuations, with the S & P 500 now trading at roughly 19 times forward earnings, well above the historic average.
Organizations: Bank of America, Survey, American Association of Locations: hawkish
Wall Street has gone from more than a year of worrying about a recession to thinking that one actually may not happen. At this point, the outgoing executive said, it doesn't even matter much if the U.S. hits a technical recession. "What matters is if you have a deep recession that changes the unemployment, and that's not happening," he said. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is among those who think the economy can avoid a recession even with 5 percentage points worth of rate hikes since March 2022. Finally, those expecting a "soft landing" for the economy rose to 68%, against 21% of those who see a hard landing.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, James Gorman, CNBC's Leslie Picker, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Spencer Hill, Hill, Gorman, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee Organizations: Citi, Reserve, Chicago Fed, CNBC, Bank of America Global Fund, Survey Locations: U.S
That fear has led a net 39% of survey respondents to say they are taking less risk than normal, a 2 percentage point increase from June. Interestingly, Hartnett noted that 66% retail investors as gauged by the American Association of Individual Investors surveys are in stocks, the "most bullish since late 2021." Hartnett also noted a "capitulation" move out of commodities, as managers have taken their most underweight position in the sector since May 2020. The July survey captured the sentiment of 262 respondents with $652 billion in assets under management. Sentiment surveys often can be contrarian indicators, so rising pessimism can be a good sign for markets.
Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America Global Fund, Survey, U.S . Federal, Nasdaq, Big Tech, American Association of, Investors
The gathering comes at a time when global investors and banks are warning that confidence is waning in China's economic outlook. Such a meeting, with a clear agenda to discuss challenges facing global fund managers investing in China, is rare, the three sources said, and reflected Beijing's keenness to shore up confidence among foreign investors. Weighed down by strict COVID measures, China's economy grew just 3% in 2022, one of its worst showings in decades. The meeting is organized by China's fund regulator Asset Management Association of China (AMAC). U.S. dollar-denominated fundraising by China-focused venture capital and PE firms this year also had its weakest first half year in the past decade, data from industry tracker Preqin showed.
Persons: Fang Xinghai, didn't, Andrew Collier, Premier Li Qiang, Xie Yu, Julie Zhu, Selena Li, Kim Coghill Organizations: U.S ., Reuters, Canada's, Ontario, China Securities Regulatory Commission, Management Association of China, ., Orient Capital Research, Ant, Premier, Wednesday, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, Beijing, U.S, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong
U.S. climate envoy John Kerry ruled out paying into a global fund to help poorer nations stricken by the devastating impacts of the climate emergency, saying that "under no circumstances" would the White House consider delivering on reparations. It comes at a time when countries acutely vulnerable to climate-fueled disasters are pushing for wealthy nations — that have the greatest historic responsibility for the climate crisis — to pay for past greenhouse gas emissions. It remains unclear, however, exactly how much richer countries will pay into the fund. Climate reparations is a highly divisive and emotive issue that is seen as a fundamental question of climate justice. Asked during a hearing before a House of Representatives foreign affairs oversight subcommittee on Thursday whether he intended for the U.S. to pay climate reparations, Kerry replied, "No, under no circumstances."
Persons: John Kerry, Kerry, Brian Mast
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