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☆ Markets are underestimating the potential for an economic slowdown, and 'greedflation' won't help investors anymore, Societe Generale says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewInvestors are underestimating the risk of an economic slowdown, and "greedflation" among companies can't prop up the market any longer, Société Générale said in a note this week. Firms hiking prices likely helped avoid a deeper slump in profits stemming from a slowing economy, Société Générale strategist Albert Edwards said. "The Greedflation driven surge in margins helped stop the profits slowdown turning into a deep downturn. A recession still poses a decent risk to the economy, though investors have warmed up to the prospect of a soft-landing.

Persons: —, Société Générale, they're, Société, Albert Edwards, Greedflation, Edwards, –, Evercore, quant, Andrew Lapthorne, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, New, Fed, Institute of Supply, Evercore ISI

☆ China's policy support is a 'stop-gap' measure — not stimulus, SocGen economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Clement Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Close up of Chinese Yuan notes, with Mao Tse-tung Peter Dazeley | The Image Bank | Getty ImagesChina's recent policy support is aimed at fixing its system and shouldn't be seen as economic stimulus, according to Societe Generale's Asia chief economist and head of research. PMI divergenceExpansion in China's services sector climbed to its strongest since August, a private survey on Tuesday showed. However, the private survey diverged from China's official PMI. The moderating manufacturing PMI and contracting services PMI, along with other November data point to the fragility of the Chinese economy and a faster deceleration of growth momentum last month, they added. The official PMI includes more companies engaged in heavy industries compared with the Caixin PMI, which covers more consumer-focused firms, Barclays economists said.

Persons: Yuan, Mao Tse, Peter Dazeley, Wei Yao, Yao, Jian Chang Organizations: Bank, Getty, Societe Generale's, CNBC, Economic Work Conference, China Communist, PMI, National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, Barclays Locations: Societe Generale's Asia, China

☆ China's economy is on a 'very treacherous' path of stabilization, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina's economy is on a 'very treacherous' path of stabilization, economist saysWei Yao, Societe Generale chief economist and head of research, says China's economy still faces "immense" downward pressure from the housing sector and debt problems.

Persons: Wei Yao Organizations: Societe Generale

☆ SocGen issues 10-mln-euro digital green bond on a public blockchain
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A logo of French bank Societe Generale is seen on the company's skyscraper at the financial and business district of La Defense near Paris, France September 14, 2023. REUTERS/Gonzalo Fuentes/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsPARIS, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Societe Generale , France's third-biggest listed bank, said on Monday it issued its first so-called digital green bond on a public blockchain, as the lender seeks to build expertise in crypto services. AXA IM made the investment in the digital green bond by acquiring and then spending 5 million euros worth of SocGen's euro-denominated stablecoin, EUR CoinVertible (EURCV). SocGen's bond issuance, made on the Ethereum public blockchain, follows the launch last week by the European Investment Bank (EIB) of its second euro-denominated digital bond on a private blockchain, in partnership with Goldman Sachs Bank Europe, Santander and SocGen. SocGen's digital green bond issuance was made via its crypto unit, Forge.

Persons: Gonzalo Fuentes, Generali, SocGen, Blockchain, Mathieu Rosemain, Bernadette Baum Organizations: Societe Generale, La Defense, REUTERS, Rights, AXA Investment, AXA, Generali Investments, European Investment Bank, Goldman Sachs Bank Europe, SocGen, Thomson Locations: La, Paris, France, Santander

☆ UBS sold a Credit Suisse private jet that was used by its ex-chair to fly to Wimbledon and the Euros, breaking COVID rules — and the Maldives for a family vacation
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( Pete Syme | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A former Credit Suisse chair used the bank's private jet to breach COVID restrictions. AdvertisementUBS has sold the Credit Suisse private jet that prompted its ex-chairman's resignation after just nine months, according to the Financial Times. António Horta-Osório used the bank's Dassault Falcon 7X to travel to sports matches and breach COVID travel restrictions, an internal investigation found. A used Falcon 7X typically sells for around $18 million, according to listings on AV Buyer. The FT reported that Credit Suisse planned to sell its jet before being rescued by UBS earlier this year, but UBS executives pushed through the sale.

Persons: deplaning, —, António, Osório, deplaned, Dan Kitwood, Taylor Swift Organizations: Credit Suisse, Dassault Falcon, Service, UBS, Financial Times, Wimbledon, soccer's, Reuters, FT, Bombardier Global, Business Locations: Maldives, António Horta, London, Horta, Singapore, Zurich

☆ Exclusive: Four banks quit initiative assessing climate targets
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Tommy Wilkes | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Four major banks, including Standard Chartered Plc (STAN.L) and HSBC Plc (HSBA.L), have quit a United Nations-backed initiative to scrutinise climate targets set by corporations, according to people familiar with the matter. Many lenders say they should finance fossil fuels as long as economies depend on them. The spokesperson added that Standard Chartered was seeking alternative third-party validation of its climate targets and that it was setting science-based targets through the NZBA. It will still require them to cease the financing of fossil fuel projects that would weigh on their longer-term emissions targets. Credit Agricole (CAGR.PA), ING (INGA.AS), BBVA (BBVA.MC) and Swedbank (SWEDa.ST) told Reuters they remained committed to SBTi validating their emissions targets.

Persons: SBTi, SBTi's, Pietro Rocco, haven't, it's, Rocco, Tommy Reggiori Wilkes, Simon Jessop, Josie Kao Organizations: Standard Chartered, HSBC Plc, United, Societe Generale SA, ABN Amro Bank, Zero Banking Alliance, HSBC, Societe Generale, ABN Amro, Reuters, Credit, ING, BBVA, NatWest, Commerzbank, BNP, Allianz, Alliance, Zero, Carbon Trust, Thomson Locations: United Nations, Nations, Paris, U.S, decarbonising, London

☆ Stock-market bulls are growing bolder: Now Deutsche Bank predicts the S&P 500 will hit a record 5,100 in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The benchmark S&P 500 will climb 12% to hit a new all-time high of 5,100, strategists said. Much of Wall Street has turned bullish on the index, which has defied gloomy predictions to rack up stellar gains this year. AdvertisementDeutsche Bank has become the latest big name on Wall Street to issue a bullish stock-market forecast for 2024, with analysts predicting the S&P 500 will soar to a fresh all-time high next year. AdvertisementWall Street bullishnessThere's clearly an optimistic atmosphere amongst stock-pickers right now, with Deutsche Bank far from the only big name on Wall Street to predict the S&P 500 could climb to record highs. Burnishing Chadha's credentials is the fact that he was one of the only Wall Street strategists who called this year's surprise stock-market rally.

Persons: —, Goldman Sachs, …, Binky Chadha, Tesla, Société Générale, Brian Belski, Burnishing Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Service, Bank of America, RBC Capital Markets, BMO Capital, Deutsche, Business, Big Tech, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Nvidia, Facebook, Nasdaq, Dow Jones

☆ We see slowdown in the U.S. economy in 2024 and no Europe recession: SocGen economist
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe see slowdown in the U.S. economy in 2024 and no Europe recession: SocGen economistKokou Agbo Bloua, global head of economics, cross-asset and quant research at Société Générale, discusses the economic outlook.

Persons: Kokou Agbo, Générale Locations: U.S

☆ The S&P 500 will trade near its all-time high before a recession drags it down again in a topsy-turvy 2024, Société Générale says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The S&P 500 will climb higher in the first quarter but then plunge 12%, the French bank said. AdvertisementGet ready for an up-and-down 2024 where the S&P 500 nears record highs, plunges, and then stages another comeback, Société Générale says. "The S&P 500 should be in 'buy-the-dip' territory, as leading indicators for profits continue to improve." The S&P 500 traded at 4,556 as of Wednesday's closing bell. Goldman Sachs' David Kostin said earlier this month that he's expecting the S&P 500 to trade at 4,700 points by the end of 2024.

Persons: Société, —, Société Générale, SocGen, Manish Kabra, It's, Kabra, who's, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, he's Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Big Tech, Wall, Bank of America, RBC Capital Markets

☆ Dollar nurses losses as US rates seen peaking
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The index , which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, fell 1.9% last week alongside a big rally in U.S. The yuan also hit a three-month high on the dollar on Monday as the central bank guided it higher. "The dollar continues to struggle, with the dollar index breaking below 104 on Friday and (now) below 103.5 ... as markets decide that the Fed is done," analysts at ANZ said in a note. The Australian dollar was marginally firmer at $0.6561, just below Monday's three-month high of $0.6564. The New Zealand dollar was steady at $0.6040.

Persons: Pierre Wunsch, Kit Juckes, Christine Lagarde, Tom Westbrook, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: European Central Bank, New Zealand, ANZ, Conference, Federal Reserve, Futures, Generale, U.S, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, U.S, Japan, Tokyo

☆ Exclusive: China's state banks seen swapping and selling dollars for yuan
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Chinese Yuan and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSHANGHAI, Nov 21 (Reuters) - China's major state-owned banks were seen exchanging yuan for U.S. dollars in the onshore swap market and selling those dollars in spot currency markets this week, two sources told Reuters on Tuesday. Some market participants said state banks might be trying to speed the yuan's gains and spur exporters to convert more of their FX receipts into yuan. The selling of dollars by state banks caused the onshore spot yuan to briefly touch 7.1296 per dollar, firmer than its daily official guidance for the first time in four months. To me, it looks like they are doing preparatory work ahead of a policy rate cut," said Kiyong Seong, lead Asia macro strategist at Societe Generale.

Persons: Yuan, Dado Ruvic, Kiyong Seong, Zhi Xiaojia, Zhi, Simon Cameron, Moore, Clarence Fernandez Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Federal, People's Bank of China, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole, Shanghai, Thomson Locations: Asia, China, United States

☆ Environmental groups urge funding halt for TotalEnergies' Mozambique project
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Wendell Roelf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

TotalEnergies signs are seen at a petrol station in Nice, France, October 10, 2022. The letter, seen by Reuters, comes at a crucial juncture for the French energy company as it prepares to relaunch Africa's largest foreign direct investment project. Activists warn the project may worsen climate change and fuel human rights abuses in the impoverished southern African nation. TotalEnergies said before Friday's letter that arrangements for project finance remain in place despite a 'force majeure' halt in 2021 when Islamist militants threatened the project site. The project delay has led some investors to reassess their previous cost assumptions in light of inflation and global gas market swings.

Persons: Eric Gaillard, Banks, TotalEnergies, Ntshengedzeni Maphula, Reta Jo Lewis, Wendell Roelf, Toby Sterling, Nellie Peyton, Forrest Crellin, Mathieu Rosemain, Yuka Obayashi, Tim Cocks, Olivia Kumwenda, Elaine Hardcastle Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, ActionAid International, Greenpeace, African Development Bank, Societe Generale, Africa's Export Credit Insurance Corporation, Thomson Locations: Nice, France, Mozambique, Greenpeace France, Netherlands, U.S, Exim, Cape Town, Amsterdam, Johannesburg, Paris, Tokyo

☆ Dollar rallies to fresh one-year high against a beaten-down yen
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | Thomson Reuters | Senior Correspondent On The London Markets Team Covering European Sovereign Bond Markets | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said the government would keep monitoring the currency market and respond appropriately. The comments had little immediate impact on the yen, which is down almost 14% against the dollar this year. "Given the move in U.S. Treasuries of course the yen is not rallying yet," he said, referring to U.S. bond yields. The dollar on Monday rose to 151.88 yen , its highest level since October 2022.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Shunichi Suzuki, Sterling, inched, Rishi Sunak, Kit Juckes, Jerome Powell, Geoff Yu, Sunak, David Cameron, Suella Braverman, Dhara Ranasinghe, Brigid Riley, Emelia Sithole, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Federal, Finance, British, Generale, BNY Mellon, Thomson Locations: U.S, Japan, Tokyo, TOKYO

☆ UniCredit’s Greek stake is less odd than it seems
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

But Italy’s UniCredit (CRDI.MI), which on Monday purchased 9% of Alpha Bank for about 300 million euros, should have better luck. This will include merging the lenders’ Romanian units and Alpha distributing UniCredit’s asset-management products in Greece. Probably the most reassuring news for investors in the Italian bank is that Orcel has no plans to raise its stake. UniCredit hasn’t requested regulatory permission to buy more and doesn’t envisage doing so, according to a person familiar with the matter. For shareholders, then, UniCredit’s mini-Greek adventure is unusual but easily tolerable.

Persons: Italy’s, Andrea Orcel, Crédit, Société, Orcel, UniCredit, UniCredit hasn’t, Liam Proud, Aimee Donnellan, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, Alpha Bank, Alpha, Piraeus Financial, X, SEC, Thomson Locations: Greece

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with IG North's JJ Kinahan and Societe Generale’s Subadra Rajappa
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with IG North's JJ Kinahan and Societe Generale’s Subadra RajappaIG North America CEO JJ Kinahan and Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale head of U.S. rate strategy, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, upcoming retail earnings, and more.

Persons: North's JJ Kinahan, JJ Kinahan, Subadra Organizations: North, Societe Generale

☆ 'The damage has already been done': A 31-year market vet shares 3 pieces of evidence that the labor market is about to collapse, sending the economy into recession and the stock market spiraling
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The US economy added just 150,000 jobs, under the expected 180,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, now 0.5% higher than its low earlier this year. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis/Bullandbearprofits.comSecond, the inverted yield curve is starting to steepen. An inverted yield curve has been an extremely reliable recession indicator over the last several decades. Bullandbearprofits.com"Proven leading indicators show that the unemployment rate is likely to start rising materially soon. Piper SandlerIn addition to the yield curve and employment indicators above, other recession indicators continue to point to a downturn ahead.

Persons: Jon Wolfenbarger, Merril Lynch, Wolfenbarger, Louis, bode, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, Edwards Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal Reserve Bank of St, National Federation of Independent, Fed, Bank of America, Societe Generale's, Generale, Edwards . Societe Generale Locations: lockstep, Edwards .

☆ U.S. Treasury yield curve will likely continue to steepen, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. Treasury yield curve will likely continue to steepen, analyst saysGuy Stear, head of emerging markets and credit research Société Générale, weighs in on the outlook for bond markets.

Persons: Guy Stear, Société Organizations: U.S, Treasury

[1/2] The branch of Credit Agricole bank is seen in Warsaw, Poland, July 3, 2018. Its net income jumped 33% to 1.75 billion euros ($1.87 billion), above the 1.37 billion expected by analysts in a company-compiled poll. Group revenue rose 19% to 6.34 billion euros, topping the 5.99 billion expected by analysts. It reported lower-than-expected provisions of 429 million euros, helping its bottom line. Credit Agricole controls Europe's largest fund manager Amundi (AMUN.PA) and recently announced plans to acquire Belgian wealth management firm Degroof Petercam.

Persons: Marcin Goclowski, Morgan, Amundi, Degroof, Mathieu Rosemain, Augustin Turpin, Silvia Aloisi, Jason Neely Organizations: Credit Agricole, REUTERS, Credit, Credit Agricole Group, Societe Generale, BNP, Deutsche Bank, Barclays, Thomson Locations: Credit, Warsaw, Poland, PARIS, Italy, France

NII at the French retail division fell by 27% in the quarter, excluding two regulated savings accounts, "well below expectations," JP Morgan said in a note to clients. The French lender said it now saw NII of its French retail, private banking and insurance division falling by more than 20% in 2023. The French retail division's earnings also suffered from hedging contracts against the risks of low interest rates. SocGen's shares had edged up 0.6% by 0924 GMT. The bank has also finalised the merger of its two French retail networks.

Persons: Gonzalo Fuentes, JP Morgan, SocGen, Slawomir Krupa, Jefferies, Krupa, ALD, Mathieu Rosemain, Silvia Aloisi, Ingrid Melander, Emelia Organizations: Societe Generale, La Defense, REUTERS, European Central Bank, BNP, Deutsche Bank, Barclays, Thomson Locations: La, Paris, France

☆ SocGen Q3 earnings beat estimates as investment bank offsets French slump
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Societe Generale , France's third-biggest listed bank, posted better-than-expected quarterly earnings onFriday, as a resilient performance from its investment bank offset the steep downturn seen at its French retail division. SocGen's third-quarter reported group net income came in at 295 million euros ($313.2 million), above the 168 million-euro average of 13 analyst estimates compiled by the company. The bank has also finalised the merger of its two French retail networks. NII at the French retail division fell by 27% in the quarter, excluding two regulated savings accounts. In this context, the 0.4% drop in sales seen at SocGen's investment bank, compares well with some of its European peers.

Persons: Slawomir Krupa Organizations: Generale, BNP, Deutsche Bank, Barclays

☆ There are 2 factors that may be driving bond yields more than Fed meetings, Societe Generale says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Fed meetings may not be the biggest mover of the bond market, Societe Generale said. AdvertisementAdvertisementDespite US bond yields plunging after Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting, central bankers may not be moving the market as much as other factors, according to Societe Generale. Another factor elbowing yields higher is the Bank of Japan, according to Edwards. AdvertisementAdvertisementThis week, the BoJ further loosened its grip on bond yields, marking another step back from its so-called yield curve control policy meant to stimulate the economy by keeping interest rates low. "That pressure intensified at exactly the same time as it became apparent just how gargantuan US Treasury issuance had become," he added.

Persons: —, Albert Edwards, Fedspeak, Edwards Organizations: Societe Generale, Bank of Japan, Service, Reserve, Treasury, Treasury Department

☆ The Fed and war in the Middle East are the 2 things that could push the US economy into a recession, 'Dr. Doom' economist Nouriel Roubini says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US economy still faces two risks that could push it into a recession, Nouriel Roubini warned. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe US is facing two risks that could push the economy into a recession, according to economist Nouriel Roubini. That will cause the Fed to push interest rates higher, a move that could overtighten financial conditions and push the US into a recession, Roubini warned. Meanwhile, bond yields could plunge as investors flock to safe-haven assets like US Treasurys, Roubini warned. Other economists have also warned of recession risks, despite the resilience of the economy and the stock market so far this year.

Persons: Roubini, Doom, —, Nouriel Roubini Organizations: Service, Fox Business, Fed, Societe Generale Locations: Israel, Iran

The central bank left interest rates unchanged from its September meeting, but its formal statement acknowledged that “economic activity expanded at a strong pace in the third quarter.” In its last statement in September, it referred to the economy’s “solid” pace. But the Fed and Chairman Jerome Powell made sure that the lack of action Wednesday does not mean that rates could be raised should incoming data show the economy is remaining strong. And the Fed says it remains committed to bringing annual inflation down to its target level of 2%. “As of Oct 31, markets expect that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates above 4.5% through the end of 2024. But we think that interest rates could go much lower,” said BeiChen Lin, investment strategy analyst at Russell Investments.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, “, We’re, ” Powell, “ We’re, It’s, ”, Neel Mukherjee, Subadra Rajappa, BeiChen Lin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Fed, Societe Generale, Russell Investments Locations: TIAA, 10y

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Paul McCulley, Subadra Rajappa, and Nancy Tengler
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Paul McCulley, Subadra Rajappa, and Nancy TenglerPaul McCulley, former PIMCO chief economist, Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale head of U.S. rates strategy, and Nancy Tengler, CEO & CIO of Laffer Tengler Investments, join 'The Exchange' to discuss fed Fed policy producing a gradual decline in inflation, the manufacturing recession spilling into services, the contrast between Fed and fiscal policy.

Persons: Paul McCulley, Subadra Rajappa, Nancy Tengler Paul McCulley, Subadra, Nancy Tengler Organizations: Societe Generale, Laffer, Investments, Fed

☆ A renowned market bear who called the dot-com bubble shares 3 warning signs that the economy is crumbling despite upbeat data, putting stocks at risk of further downside
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-28 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500 is up 7.6% year-to-date. Only about 40% of analyst ratings changes for S&P 500 companies are upgrades. While the S&P 500 is up over 7% this year, Edwards cited it as another data point covering up the economy's true health. Their outsized contribution to the index's performance is evidenced by the returns of the S&P 500 equal-weighted index, Edwards said, which is down by 5% this year. In the equal-weighted index, each individual S&P 500 constituent's performance impacts the overall index's performance the same.

Persons: Albert Edwards, " Edwards, Edwards, Freddie Kruger, —, Russell Organizations: Generale Chief Global, Societe Generale They're, Societe Generale, National Federation for Independent, Institute, Supply, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, RBC Capital Markets

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