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☆ AI Becomes Silicon Valley’s Next Buzzy Bandwagon as Crypto Boom Fizzles
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-18 | by ( Christopher Mims | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The new artificial-intelligence tools getting widespread attention for spitting out text, images and computer code are also generating something else: talk of the next technology bubble. Technologists broadly agree that the so-called generative AI that powers systems like ChatGPT has the potential to change how we live and work, despite the technology’s clear flaws. But some investors, chief executives and engineers see signs of froth that remind them of the crypto boom that recently fizzled.

Commodities from iron ore to crude oil to copper rallied after Beijing's surprise abandonment of the zero-COVID policy late last year, but have since eased back. While there are other factors driving commodity prices, it's also the case that the positive market sentiment created by expectations of a rebound in the world's second-largest economy ran ahead of actual commodity demand. China's imports of major commodities have yet to show any major spike higher, even as they remain at relatively robust levels. The irony is that just as commodity prices are losing some steam, China's economic momentum appears to be gathering pace. Overall, there is little doubt that China's re-opening will be positive for the country's commodity demand.

World markets this week will be dominated by U.S. inflation figures on Tuesday, leaving Monday free for investors in Asia to digest the previous session's action on Wall Street and adjust positioning ahead of the numbers. Indian consumer price inflation for January tops Monday's Asian economic calendar. Revised figures on Friday showed that inflation in December was a little stronger than originally reported, and a closely-watched consumer inflation expectations survey showed a notable spike in the short-term outlook. Tough talking on inflation from Fed officials was matched last week by their peers in Australia, India and Sweden, so the push is global. Sources have told Reuters that 71-year old academic Kazuo Ueda, a former Bank of Japan policy board member has been lined up to replace Haruhiko Kuroda as BOJ governor.

☆ Sorry investors, the AI hype that's gripped the stock market is premature and the bubble will probably burst this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Tschosik says frenzied investing in obscure AI companies reminds him the 2001 dot-com boom and bust. The rally in AI stocks will probably run until about mid-year before stock prices return to earth, he said. This means some obscure artificial intelligence companies could easily be getting overvalued. In an experiment, Tschosik asked ChatGPT to list the best artificial intelligence stocks. With such a small pool, obscure AI stocks have been getting outsized attention from Wall Street investors, helping boost prices higher than they might otherwise go if the sector was more developed.

Consumer price inflation in January is expected to have risen 0.7% on the month and at an annual rate of 2.2%, up from 0.0% and 1.8%, respectively, as the economy picks up following its COVID-19 pandemic paralysis. chartOn its own, economic re-opening will likely accelerate growth and inflation this year. Deteriorating Sino-U.S. relations could encourage some investors and businesses to rethink their exposure to China, potentially affecting Chinese assets and rippling through to others, like European equities and U.S. Treasuries. Risk assets are repricing accordingly. Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:- China CPI and PPI inflation (January)- Japan goods price inflation (January)- India industrial production (December)By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Coking coal prices, along with those for iron ore, have rallied on the back of this optimism, with both steel raw materials recording strong gains this year. The answer is that for coking coal there appears to be both rising demand and some supply disruptions at work. Japan, the second-biggest buyer of seaborne coking coal, imported 5.01 million tonnes in January, up from December's 3.98 million and roughly level with last January's 5.08 million. Outside of Asia, Europe's imports of coking coal rose to 3.81 million tonnes in January from December's 3.55 million, according to Kpler. The overall picture from coking coal imports is that there has been a move higher in recent months, which does provide some fundamental backing to the rally in prices.

☆ Investors are hooked on the 'heroin' of Fed rate cuts but the focus will turn to earnings gloom, Morgan Stanley's top strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Federal Reserve's not going to start cutting interest rates soon, Morgan Stanley's top strategist said. When investors realize that, the focus will shift to the weakness in earnings, Mike Wilson told CNBC. But with once-soaring prices starting to cool, many investors now expect the Fed to start cutting rates by the end of 2023. But many strategists have put the gains down to investors' blindly focusing on hypothetical Fed rate cuts while ignoring other factors, such as earnings. "The Fed will be part of that story, but I think it'll be cutting rates long after the market has bottomed."

While the Chinese ban has been lifted, it's unlikely that buyers will flock back to Australian thermal coal, given the availability of cheaper, and similar quality, coal from Russia. The weakness in prices wasn't limited to Australian thermal coal, with Indonesian grades also dropping. Indonesia is the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, while Australia ranks second and Russia third. Russian thermal coal from Vostochny port, which is largely being bought by China after Japan curbed imports following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has also been weakening. Prices for Indonesia, Russia and Australia thermal coalVOLUMES SLIPThe softer prices for thermal coal are occurring as demand for seaborne cargoes appears to be weakening among Asia's top two importing nations.

☆ My blog was plagiarized using AI. Here's what that means for the future.
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Alex Kantrowitz | Big Technology | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Big Technology is a newsletter about tech and society by independent journalist Alex Kantrowitz . A Substack plagiarized analysis from Big Technology and posted it. The core of the story, lifted from Big Technology, was good enough to spark a discussion. The tools enable AI writing and likely helped remix the original article. Follow Big Technology on Twitter.

☆ Jeremy Grantham says the first leg of bursting bubble is complete, but still more losses to go
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Jeremy Grantham, famed investor with a history of calling bear markets including the one last year, said investors should brace for even more losses in 2023 as the bursting of the growth stock bubble was just the beginning. "Given the complexities of an ever-changing world, investors should have far less certainty about the timing and extent of the next leg down from here." Grantham, the co-founder of Grantham Mayo van Otterloo in 1977, is a widely-followed investor and market historian with a track record of identifying market bubbles. He foresaw the 2008 bear market and the dot-com bubble-bursting of 2000. Despite the great uncertainties ahead, there are still a number of reasonable investment opportunities in the markets, including emerging markets, which are reasonably priced, Grantham said.

ORLANDO, Fla., Jan 22 (Reuters) - A key part of the U.S. yield curve is the most inverted in decades and for hedge funds, enough is enough. It is the smallest net short since December 2021, and considering that short position exceeded 1 million contracts in early September, it is virtually neutral. Funds also increased their one-month SOFR net long position to over 67,000 contracts, the largest long since August. A short position is essentially a wager that an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. Meanwhile, speculators increased their net short 10-year Treasuries futures position by 133,699 contracts, the biggest weekly shift since last October, to 545,000 contracts.

☆ ChatGPT-style A.I. replaced crypto as the hot tech topic for Davos crowd at 2023's WEF summit
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Ryan Browne | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Jonathan Raa | Nurphoto | Getty ImagesAttendees of the annual World Economic Forum couldn't get enough of a new development in the realm of artificial intelligence: generative AI. Most machine learning tools rely on existing information and identify patterns in the data to pick out trends or reach a preferred outcome. Generative AI tools like ChatGPT and Dall-E stand out from the crowd through their ability to take data inputs and create new content. This week at the WEF forum in Davos, Switzerland, generative AI virtually replaced crypto and so-called "Web3" as the hyped technology of choice for top business executives and policymakers. "Generative AI has a huge potential," said Hiroaki Kitano, CEO of Sony Computer Science Laboratories, on Tuesday's generative AI panel.

☆ This asset class is outperforming U.S. stocks in 2023, and you may be missing out
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Ryan Ermey | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

It's a continuation of a relatively strong 2022 in which foreign stocks shed 14.5% compared with an 18% loss for U.S. names . "International stocks are set up quite well," says Ross Mayfield, an investment strategy analyst at Baird Private Wealth Management. Investing experts point to a handful of factors that have boosted the performance of international stocks of late. "Now that it's come back down, it's relieved a lot of the pressure on international stocks." "The sector mix for international stocks is more compatible with the economy we've seen," says Mayfield.

☆ Wall Street's rally signals more conviction in the market in 2023 - listen to 'The Homestretch'
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

BUT PEOPLE DON'T KNOW WHAT TO BEAGGRESSIVE IN BECAUSE THEY DON'TWANT TO BE IN SOMETHING THAT'SABOUT TO REPORT AND HAVE A BADNUMBER. AND WHAT PEOPLE ARE BUYING ARE,YOU KNOW, THEY'RE BUYING BOEING,CATERPILLAR AND SALESFORCE. I DON'T KNOW. I DON'T KNOW HOW MUCH TO BE -- IDON'T KNOW HOW MUCH TO BETHANKFUL ABOUT TAIWAN SEMI. I DON'T THINK IT'S -- I THINKIT'S A -- I DON'T THINK ITMATTERS.

☆ Hong Kong set to shortlist crypto tokens for retail trading
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Georgina Lee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HONG KONG, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Hong Kong securities watchdog will propose a subset of tokens it would allow for retail investors' trading, its chief executive said on Wednesday, as it presses on with a new regulatory regime that will make the city more friendly to crypto startups. Hong Kong's move to allow retail trading in cryptocurrencies has come after months of turmoil in the sector, with the collapse of crypto exchange FTX the latest blow. The SFC will start accepting applications for VASP licences, in mid 2024, Leung said. The new crypto regime requires all trading platforms and exchanges to apply for a licence failing which would result in fines and jail terms,Industry sources have said they expected the consultation on retail trading to start within the first quarter. Leung said the tokenization of investment funds and bonds will also fall under the purview of the SFC.

☆ Here's how to invest before markets reach a key pivot point in 2023, according to iCapital's chief investment strategist
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stunning plunge in asset prices, however, has created a promising entry point for investors, Amoroso told Insider. Markets moves will likely be muted in the coming months as the economy endures slowdown and the central bank brings the Federal Funds rate higher, she explained. The second half of this year, though, will be a key pivot point once the terminal rate is higher than core PCE inflation. "The times you want to invest," according to Amoroso, "is when economic data is falling apart, not surging." "We like private credit because amid the pullback in public markets, the banks are not as eagerly lending to companies," Amoroso said.

☆ Bitcoin volatility fell to historic lows this week. Here’s why that might be bad news
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

"An uptick in bitcoin volatility would, rather than trigger concern, be greeted as a positive sign and would most likely be closely followed by a similar move in spot and derivative trading volumes." Sigel also pointed to bitcoin miners who may be selling covered calls in order to monetize profits as much as they can. Bitcoin miners have had a difficult time with the bitcoin price stuck at such low levels. "Each time volatility has been this low, historically, bitcoin prices have bottomed," said Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy Digital. Thorn said that while seeing lenders and exchanges collapse feels unstable, the crypto market will emerge from this period having significantly matured.

Any time America reports its economy is strong, Wall Street has a freak-out. So why is good news taken as bad news on Wall Street? Wall Street is particularly sensitive to strong jobs numbers. The fear is that the strong jobs market (good for Main Street) will spin off more inflation (bad for companies and Wall Street.) That may not sound like great news to you or me, but Wall Street took that reading as a sign the Fed’s medicine may be beginning to work.

The dollar, a beneficiary of rising U.S. interest rates, was on track for its best annual performance in seven years. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against six major currencies, dipped 0.16%. Sterling was set for its worst performance against the dollar since 2016, when Britain voted to leave the European Union. "Averting a downturn is a tall order," said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank, noting that the odds are stacked against economies emerging unscathed from global policy tightening. U.S. Treasuries and German bonds, the benchmarks of global borrowing markets, lost 16% and 24% respectively in dollar terms this year.

☆ Bitcoin still has a big opportunity in payments despite 60% drop this year and choppy waters ahead
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

Investors are constantly reminded that despite the myriad coins, projects and innovations in crypto, bitcoin may be the only "safe" crypto asset to buy. And while Tesla didn't credit the volatility for its reversal, many observers saw it as evidence that the belief in bitcoin's payments capabilities were misguided. "Bitcoin's price on any given day — as a remittance vehicle — has no effect on us," he said. The group that runs the Lightning Network, a payment protocol built on the Bitcoin network, is committed to making Bitcoin network payments even faster, less costly and more readily confirmed than transactions made directly on the Bitcoin blockchain. Crypto investors, on the other hand, were "disproportionately high-income, almost always had a traditional banking relationship, and typically had other retirement savings."

☆ A notorious market bear who called the dot-com bubble warns stocks are still as overvalued as they were in 1929 and 2000, setting up the S&P 500 for a 'far deeper retreat' and a decade of negative ret
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-24 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

John Hussman expects a "far deeper retreat" in stocks, despite the S&P 500's 20% loss in 2022. The 20% loss the S&P 500 has suffered this year has most investors searching for a bottom. "Though recent market losses have removed the most extreme speculative froth, our most reliable valuation measures remain near their 1929 and 2000 extremes." He also said he expects -6% returns over the next 10-12 years for the S&P 500. The chart below shows actual market returns (vertical axis) over 12 years when considering market capitalization of non-financial stock-to-gross value added valuations.

☆ FTX flameout showed investors bought crypto for the wrong reasons. Why most are hoping that'll change in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-18 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

In some ways, disgraced FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried helped bring more legitimacy to crypto, pushing it further into the mainstream. Decentralized finance has exploded in popularity, but there are other uses for digital assets that people are excited about. Now is a good time for investors to gain knowledge, and doing so would help them solidify their crypto investment thesis in 2023, he said. Specifically, Blumberg added, leaving funds on centralized exchanges is far more dangerous than keeping custody of funds yourself. "The smart investors are seeing this and remembering that what we have here is a fixed supply and, growing demand."

☆ ECB seeks urgent regulation after multiple crypto bubbles burst
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Crypto investors suffered a series of blows this year from the collapse of the FTX exchange, to the crash of stablecoin TerraUSD and the decline of Bitcoin. It is like froth: multiple bubbles are bursting one after another," Panetta said in a speech in London. Unbacked crypto assets are a form of financial gambling without any socially or economically useful function, so the task is to thwart criminal activity, protect unassuming investors and save a financial system that may become increasingly intertwined with crypto assets, Panetta said. The links between the crypto market and the financial system could strengthen, especially if major tech companies enter the sector, meaning regulation is urgently required, Panetta said. Regulatory efforts should be directed primarily at preventing the use of crypto-assets to circumvent financial regulation and in shielding the mainstream financial system from crypto risks, Panetta said.

☆ Falling house prices will help the Fed tame inflation – but they also increase the risk of a prolonged economic downturn
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-26 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

But a housing market slowdown also increases the risk of a recession. The aggressive monetary tightening lifted the average 30-year US mortgage rate from 5.60% to 6.84% over the last three months, according to Bankrate. "A decline in home buying is one of the byproducts of tighter monetary policy," Macquarie's head of economics David Doyle told Insider. What has the Fed said about the housing market? Should borrowing costs remain too high for too long, those industries risk facing a decline in business at a time when monetary tightening is already squeezing their cash flows.

A sour mixture of manufacturing hiccups, Chinese Covid lockdowns and other issues have watered down Oatly’s once-heady growth rates. On that basis, the company could exhaust its $116 million cash pile early next year. Petersson has announced layoffs and other cost-cutting measures, which he hopes will save $50 million in annual terms. And even if he finds a manufacturing partner soon, it’s unlikely to stop the company burning cash. That leaves Petersson two options: sell the company, or raise cash.

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