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☆ The Fed's rate decision shows its focus has shifted from inflation to the labor market
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday. Inflation is no longer the central focus on the Federal Reserve, they said. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve has finally delivered its first interest-rate cut in four years — and a jumbo-sized one at that. While inflation has long been seen as the Fed's sole mandate, it's also starting to show signs of concern for the job market.

Persons: —, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Reserve, Business

☆ Trump-supporting hedge fund billionaire says he'll pull his money out of the market if Harris wins the election
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Trump-supporting hedge fund billionaire criticized Harris' tax plans on a Fox Business segment. Paulson said a proposed tax on unrealized gains would "could mass selling of almost everything." AdvertisementBillionaire hedge fund manager and Trump donor John Paulson told Fox Business that he will sell his stocks if Kamala Harris wins the presidency in November. Paulson was particularly focused on Harris' proposal to levy a 25% tax on unrealized gains for individuals worth more than $100 million. AdvertisementBillionaire Mark Cuban took to X, formerly Twitter, to compare how businesses would do between Harris' tax policy and Trump's plans for broad-sweeping tariffs, concluding that Harris would offer more in after-tax profit.

Persons: John Paulson, Kamala Harris, Harris, Paulson, —, I'd, Kent Smetters, Donald Trump, Mark Cuban Organizations: Trump, Fox, Service, Billionaire, Fox Business, Penn Wharton Budget, Business, Biden, Jobs, Republican

☆ The SEC wants to make trading stocks cheaper for the average investor
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The SEC on Wednesday approved a change that will allow some stocks to be quoted in half-penny increments. The measure will narrow bid-ask spreads and reduce costs for investors, the SEC said. AdvertisementThe US Securities and Exchange Commission has revamped how stocks get priced in an effort to reduce costs on investors. On Wednesday, the SEC voted to adjust market rules, so that some stocks will be quoted in increments of $0.005. AdvertisementPrior to Wednesday's vote, stocks had been priced at a one-penny minimum since 2005.

Persons: —, Gary Gensler, Gensler Organizations: SEC, Service, US Securities and Exchange Commission, Reuters, Ford, Wall, Commission

☆ The Archegos disaster isn't over yet for banks as the feds reportedly revive criminal antitrust probe
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewFederal prosecutors are reexamining Wall Street banks that lost billions in the 2021 Archegos collapse, anonymous sources told Bloomberg. The revived probe follows just months after Archegos' founder Bill Hwang was convicted of fraud, racketeering, and market manipulation in July. AdvertisementHowever, this plot fell apart when the stocks fell in March 2021, sending Archegos's $150 billion in bets fell into freefall. After an agreement failed to materialize, banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley unleashed their shares onto the market. Sources told Bloomberg that the department has begun making inquiries, with special attention paid to the 2021 banks' emergency discussions.

Persons: —, Archegos, Bill Hwang, Hwang, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, US Department of Justice, Business, Credit Suisse, Nomura, UBS, DOJ Locations: freefall

☆ Stock market today: Indexes rise on upbeat retail sale data ahead of Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks pushed higher as positive retail sales surprised investors. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve's likely interest rate cut on Wednesday. AdvertisementStocks moved higher after stronger-than-expected US retail sales boosted confidence in consumer health, as the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting is set to kick off. Retail sales increased 0.1% last month, compared to consensus estimates of a 0.2% decline. Strong retail sales suggest that the Fed does not necessarily have to hurry with larger cuts, as the consumer economy appears intact for now.

Persons: Stocks, —, That's, Scott Helfstein Organizations: Service, Federal, Investment, Global

☆ The biggest threat to the US dollar is America's exorbitant debt load, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

One of the main takeaways was that the biggest threats to dollar dominance are swelling US debt levels and fiscal deficits, which officials in Washington could step up to tackle. "The biggest challenge to US dollar dominance is the US itself given the mounting public debt levels and elevated fiscal deficits," JPMorgan said, in a note summarizing the webinar. For instance, many alarmists have focused on the dollar's share in foreign reserve holdings, often pointing out that the foreign central banks have piled into gold as an alternative. But this fixation omits the fact that bank deposits, sovereign wealth fund assets, and other dollar instruments have been on the rise among reserve holdings, JPMorgan said. "In China's case, it has had an explicit target to bring down dollar holdings in FX reserve but has shifted USD holdings to state-owned entities.

Persons: —, Peter G, Mark Sobel —, Trump, Sobel Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, US, Peterson Foundation, Treasury, Monetary, Financial, greenback Locations: Washington, China

☆ Stock market today: Stocks close mixed as investors gear up for major Fed rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Tuesday's retail sales data boosted soft landing outlooks. AdvertisementIndexes were mixed on Tuesday with investors still split on the potential size of an interest rate cut, with less than 24-hours to go before the Federal Reserve announces its policy decision. Unanticipated strength in Tuesday's retail sales data convinced investors that the economy remains robust, and the S&P 500 briefly hit a record high before paring gains. Bond yields edged up ahead of the Fed decision, nodding to the possibility that the odds of a jumbo rate cut fell after retail sales surprised to the upside. AdvertisementStrong retail sales suggest that the Fed does not necessarily have to hurry with larger cuts, as the consumer economy appears intact for now.

Persons: —, LPL, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, bitcoin, Treasury

☆ Bitcoin is surging on hopes rate cuts will drive a speculative rush
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The rise comes amid anticipation that the Fed will deliver a half-point rate cut. Investors are anticipating the Federal Reserve's long-awaited rate cut tomorrow, which will be announced at the end of the central bank's two-day policy meeting. Regardless of the size of the cut, investors buying up bitcoin are anticipating the looser lending conditions will lead to more speculative behavior. We could be seeing a recovery of investors' appetite for risk-on assets like crypto, instigating more flows into Bitcoin spot ETFs," said Leena ElDeeb, a research analyst at 21Shares. Seasonal factors weakened the spot bitcoin ETF inflows this summer while deteriorating macro conditions drove investors toward safe, risk-off assets.

Persons: —, Morgan Stanley, Tuesday's, Leena ElDeeb, Alex Kuptsikevich, Bill Dudley Organizations: Service, New York

☆ Gen Z and millennials are propping up the economy — with help from their parents, 'Oracle of Wall Street' says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Go to newsletter preferencesSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementAccording to a Harris poll from September 2023, about 45% of adults aged 18 to 29 were still living with their parents. However, the "Oracle of Wall Street" economist — so known for correctly predicting the 2008 crisis — did not foresee a recession, given that stronger cohorts would continue to power the economy. Aside from Gen Z and millennial consumers, top-earners are also helping keep the US economy afloat, Whitney noted. Those raking in over $150,000 are still active in the economy, though buying has shifted toward essentials over discretionary products.

Persons: —, Meredith Whitney —, Harris, Whitney, McDonald's, Gen Z Organizations: Service, Financial Times, Business, Whitney, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dollar

☆ AI will nearly double demand for copper, which is already facing a global shortage
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The AI boom will nearly double demand for copper, mining firm BHP told the Financial Times. Copper is a necessary material for electrification, and AI data centers will require power capacity to expand. Chief Financial Officer Vandita Pant told the Financial Times that AI data centers will account for 6% to 7% of copper demand by 2050. These conditions caused copper prices to peak to a record high in May, though China's economic tumble has helped deflate prices to $9,207 a ton. Previously, the bank also considered copper prices to benefit from the expansion of AI data centers.

Persons: —, Vandita Pant Organizations: BHP, Financial Times, Service, Lundin Mining, Bank of America

☆ Morgan Stanley lays out the stock market's best-case scenario for this week's Fed decision — and 2 areas to buy after the cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Ideally the Fed will cut rates by a half-point without triggering growth worries, Morgan Stanley says. According to new research from Morgan Stanley, that would be the best possible outcome for stocks. Ahead of the rate cut, Morgan Stanley suggested that investors increase exposure to two stock cohorts that have historically outperformed in similar environments: defensive and high-quality. Defensive stocks include sectors such as utilities and consumer staples — groups that are less reliant on macroeconomic conditions to perform well. Large caps also tend to outperform small caps both before and after the Fed's first rate cut.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, —, Morgan, cyclicals, Wilson Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve

☆ Resist the temptation of AI and bet on safe defensive stocks, Wall Street analysts say
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-15 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

More analysts are recommending "defensive" shares over AI plays as macro conditions change. With some questioning the AI rally, investors could benefit from non-tech growth companies, an analyst said. Similar to BofA's call, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson last week called the AI theme "overcooked" and said investors should shift to defensive shares. But in tune with what others had said, Diton also touted that utilities stocks as one meaningful investment to make right now. As bullish on AI as he may be, he warned that the market has become extremely concentrated in tech's leading names, and investors need to diversify.

Persons: —, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Brad Conger, Hirtle Callaghan, Conger, Morgan Stanley's Wilson, Eric Diton, Diton Organizations: Service, Nvidia, P Global Semiconductor, Bank of America, Vanguard, JPMorgan, Wealth Alliance, Federal Reserve Locations: BlackRock

☆ It looks like the commercial real estate market has finally bottomed out — and experts say it's time to invest
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewThe embattled commercial real estate market may finally have a few things going its way, according to recent data. AdvertisementAnd yet, lending volumes are slightly improving, Moody's said. As these lenders are most exposed to commercial real estate, some analysts have warned that hundreds of banks risk failing in the next few years. Now, some see opportunity in the real estate market. "We think this will be an attractive vintage for real estate credit," analysts Matt Salem and Dakota Sagnelli wrote, later adding: "A growing number of commercial real estate transactions should increase the number of opportunities to lend, while the dearth of bank capital should keep yields attractive and spreads relative to corporate credit elevated."

Persons: —, Moody's, they've, Matt Salem, Dakota Sagnelli Organizations: Service, Business, Wall, KKR Locations: Dakota

☆ It looks like the commercial-real-estate market has finally bottomed out — and experts say it's time to invest
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewThe embattled commercial-real-estate market may finally have a few things going its way, according to recent data. That left owners with harder-to-pay debt, made worse by high interest rates and tighter bank lending. AdvertisementYet lending volumes are slightly improving, Moody's said. Related storiesMoody's expects bank lending to turn positive by the end of 2024. As these lenders are most exposed to commercial real estate, some analysts have said that hundreds of banks risk failing in the next few years.

Persons: —, Moody's, they've, Matt Salem, Dakota Sagnelli Organizations: Service, Business, Wall, KKR Locations: Dakota

☆ Bitcoin will surge 117% by year-end if 'crypto president' Trump wins the election, Standard Chartered says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Bitcoin will reach $125,000 by the year's end if Trump wins the election, Standard Chartered said. Bitcoin would reach $75,000 under Kamala Harris, as she is more open to crypto than president Biden, SC said. Under the self-branded "crypto president," bitcoin could reach $125,000 by the year's end, analyst Geoff Kendrick wrote on Thursday. If Harris wins the presidency, bitcoin will reach $75,000 by the end of the year, Kendrick estimates. Even if Trump wins, Kendrick tempered his prior outlook that bitcoin can reach $150,000 by the year's end.

Persons: Bitcoin, Kamala Harris, Biden, —, bitcoin, Donald Trump, Geoff Kendrick, Trump, Gary Gensler, Kendrick, Joe Biden, Harris, Bernstein, Gautam Chhugani Organizations: Trump, Chartered, SC, Service, Securities and Exchange Commission, BTC, MicroStrategy, BlackRock's ETF, Democratic, Treasury

☆ These 5 parts of the stock market are most at risk if Trump wins the election and implements wide-reaching tariffs, Barclays says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The presidential candidate has pledged to unleash universal tariffs on all US trade if elected. The firm outlined which five sectors are the most exposed to losses if Trump wins and implements tariffs. To be sure, US firms have some way of navigating higher costs associated with tariffs, Barclays said. Other economists have loudly criticized Trump's tariff idea as fuel for inflation, given that prices will rise amid a pullback in foreign products. AdvertisementAccording to Barclays, inflation would climb 0.09 percentage points in the short run, and US GDP could take a 1.2% hit in the first 12 months.

Persons: Trump's, —, Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris, Trump Organizations: Barclays, Trump, Service, Democratic, Companies Locations: Mexico

☆ How plunging oil prices could help the US avoid recession
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Brent crude has fallen below a key threshold of $70 per barrel, and analysts expect it to fall further. Falling oil prices lessen the odds of a US recession, market veteran Ed Yardeni said. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! That puts the commodity at its lowest level in three years, breaking past a key threshold of $70 per barrel. Although falling prices might spell trouble for oil producers who hinge on the product, it could ease the chances of a US recession, one economist wrote.

Persons: Brent, Ed Yardeni, — Organizations: Service, Business

☆ Stock market today: Indexes rise as traders eye debate and upcoming inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Investors are gearing up for August's consumer price index report to release on Wednesday. Tuesday's presidential debate could also impact investor sentiment. This week, investors are bracing for the incoming consumer price index report, scheduled for release on Wednesday morning. Before the inflation print, investors will first tune into Tuesday evening presidential debate between candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Later in the week, the producer price index and the latest jobless claims will be published on Thursday.

Persons: Stocks, —, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, David Bahnsen Organizations: Service, Bahnsen Group, Here's

☆ 4 positives to focus on as recession fears grip the market, Deutsche Bank says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

But Deutsche Bank is offering four reasons to stay positive even as recession fears flare. AdvertisementIt's an uncomfortable time for equity investors, with the S&P 500 fresh off its biggest weekly decline in 18 months. Although the Federal Reserve is on the brink of long-awaited rate cuts, concerns have crept into the market that the economy is at risk of a sudden unpreventable softening. But with interest rate cuts ahead and recession fears in the air, investors are more likely to reposition. Rate cuts are on the horizonAdvertisementAll of Wall Street appears to be bracing for the Federal Reserve to lower rates at its policy meeting next week.

Persons: —, Deutsche, There's Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Service, Federal, Wall, Deutsche, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Mortgage Bankers Association

☆ The best week of the year to buy a home is coming up
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Realtor.com says the week of September 29 through October 5 is the best time to buy a home. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! A new report from Realtor.com suggests the best week of the year to buy a home is just around the corner. Realtor.com said prospective homeowners who buy between September 29 and October 5 could save as much as $14,000 from the summer's median home price of $445,000. It said that in this week in the past, market activity has slowed, competition has eased, and for-sale listings have picked up meaningfully.

Persons: Realtor.com, — Organizations: Service, Business Locations: Realtor.com

☆ Why the global fight against inflation is nowhere near over
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

"Everyone seems to believe that inflation will return to its boring old normal," said Chief European economist Tomasz Wieladek. Changes in central bank policy, expectations, labor markets, and globalization mean that inflation will likely stay volatile going forward." Depending on circumstances, this could set the scene for another large inflation target miss." For instance, JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon has repeated warnings of a pricey future, as global militarization and the green transition stoke inflation. "While AI will likely have a disinflationary effect in the medium term, the associated energy consumption could contribute to higher short-term inflation."

Persons: —, Rowe Price, Tomasz Wieladek, Wieladek, Jamie Dimon, Donald Trump Organizations: Service, Financial Times, Business, JPMorgan Locations: Europe

☆ Stock market today: Indexes end mixed as investors brace for August inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Investors are waiting for the consumer price report on Wednesday. JPMorgan led a slide in bank stocks after easing its earnings optimism. AdvertisementUS stocks ended mixed Tuesday ahead of the August consumer price index report due out Wednesday morning. Most investors anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut, but any shock in the inflation data could shift that outlook in favor of a steeper cut. Ahead of each report, Tuesday's presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris could also sway markets.

Persons: Dow, —, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Nasdaq, Ally Locations: Here's

☆ Home prices are falling the fastest in these 10 US cities
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-07 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Median home prices fell 1.3% year-over-year in August, Realtor.com said. For-sale inventory hit the highest level since May 2020, helping push prices lower. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.

Persons: Realtor.com, — Organizations: Service, Business

☆ Deep rate cuts are necessary because the Fed's unprecedented hikes actually made inflation worse, Nobel-winning economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-06 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Nobel-prize-winning economist called on the central bank to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its approaching policy meeting. AdvertisementFriday's weaker-than-expected reading did not completely ease concerns, putting pressure on the Fed to ease policy quickly. But Stiglitz, speaking ahead of the data's release, told CNBC that he would pursue deeper rate cuts regardless of Friday's report. Builder confidence also tanked to a December bottom, though experts anticipate that falling interest rates should eventually boost sentiment. AdvertisementMeanwhile, homebuyers appear sidelined as they wait for interest rate cuts to ease mortgage rates.

Persons: —, Joseph Stiglitz, Stiglitz, homebuyers Organizations: Service, CNBC, Business

☆ A necessary step or government overreach? Economists are divided over Kamala Harris' plan to clamp down on food inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-24 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Read previewVice President Kamala Harris' proposal to combat grocery inflation hasn't elicited a range of opinions from economists, and many have turned to history to dispute her idea. Last week, the Democratic presidential nominee unveiled early details of her economic platform, which included a pledge to ban grocery price gouging. In a study from May, price gouging was the second leading perceived cause of inflation among surveyed consumers. AdvertisementWhether gouging deserves the blame for inflation, some have also criticized Harris' plan as an ineffective government overreach. Pundits have alluded to the price controls under President Richard Nixon.

Persons: —, Kamala Harris, Kenneth Rogoff, Harris, Ed Yardeni, Price, Richard Nixon, Stephen Moore, Lindsay Owens, Donald Trump Organizations: Service, Democratic, Business, CNN, Republican, Cato Institute, Heritage Foundation, CNBC, Federal Trade Commission, New York Times Locations: Cal, Maine

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