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Consumer spending remained remarkably resilient throughout 2023, even in the face of prolonged inflation and high interest rates. "Nonetheless, those tailwinds are not necessarily sustainable," Kleinhenz said in the January issue of NRF's Monthly Economic Review, released Tuesday. Americans are racking up more 'phantom debt'56 million Americans have been in credit card debt for over a yearRecent reports already show signs of strain. In the last year, credit card debt spiked to a record high, surpassing $1.08 trillion, according to the latest quarterly report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Now, more cardholders are carrying debt from month to month and fewer are able to pay off their balances in full.
Persons: Jack Kleinhenz, Kleinhenz, Mark Hamrick Organizations: National Retail Federation, Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
However, credit card balances are especially worrisome because they are going to keep getting worse. That means the average American could be spending $1,140 every year on credit card interest and fees alone. Americans have been accruing a lot of credit card debt at a terrible timeAccording to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Americans had nearly $1.1 trillion in credit card debt in the third quarter of this year. Credit card interest rates, which had already been at their highest level since the mid-1990s, started soaring even higher. But with credit card debt going through the roof, the blissful spending could come to a screeching halt.
Persons: couldn't, , Gary Coronado, LendingTree, Ted Rossman, Biden Organizations: Service, SoFi Bank, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal Reserve Board, Fed, New York, New York Fed, Consumer Financial, CNN, Household Economics Locations: WalletHub, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, delinquencies
I'm a Gen Zer who worked at my 9-to-5 before the pandemic, and found the schedule soul-crushing. The shift to remote work suddenly meant I had time to cook, exercise, and socialize. AdvertisementThere's been a whole lot of buzz recently about Gen Zers discovering the bleak realities of a 9-to-5 schedule. I graduated college in 2019, and went almost immediately into a 9-to-5 schedule. Like other Gen Zers, I enjoy getting face time with my coworkers, and, honestly, the free food.
Persons: Zer, , There's, Zers, Herman Melville's, Scrivener, We've, Nick Bloom, Bloom, I'd, They're, It's, that's Organizations: Service, Business, University of West, Federal Reserve Bank of New, of Labor Statistics, Stanford University, Insider Locations: York City, University of West England, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, York
Markets are betting the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as soon as early 2024. AdvertisementWall Street largely anticipates that the Federal Reserve has finished its interest rate-hiking cycle, and markets are betting central bankers will begin easing policy soon. Tom Barkin, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond president, November 29: "If inflation comes down naturally and smoothly, awesome. Mary Daly, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco president, November 30: "I'm not thinking about rate cuts at all right now. John Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of New York president, November 30: "My assessment is that we are at, or near, the peak level of the target range of the federal funds rate."
Persons: Jerome Powell, , CME's, Christopher Waller, Tom Barkin, Raphael Bostic, Mary Daly, John Williams, Williams Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, ING, Barclays, Federal Reserve Bank, Richmond, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal
[1/2] A man passes by The Federal Reserve Bank of New York in New York City, U.S., March 13, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Underlying inflation pressures eased in October compared to the prior month, according to a report released on Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The bank said that its Multivariate Core Trend (MCT) inflation reading for October stood at 2.6%, from September’s 2.88%. The NY Fed MCT index is designed to measure inflation persistence and how broadly price pressures are changing. The NY Fed MCT reading has tracked a broader retreat in price pressures.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Powell, Williams, Michael S, Mark Porter, Bill Berkrot Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, NY, New York Fed, Fed, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, U.S, September’s
The better your credit score, the better your interest rate on a car loan is likely to be. You should look at the monthly cost of the loan, but also the total cost long-term. Before applying for a car loan, it's crucial to check your credit score and take steps to improve it if necessary. It's important to leave room in your budget for unexpected expenses and to avoid becoming financially strained due to excessive car loan payments. A substantial down payment can work wonders in reducing the total cost of your car loan.
Persons: doesn't, Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Quicken Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
New York CNN —The Black Friday and Cyber Monday billion-dollar US spending spree was fueled by “Buy Now, Pay Later” shoppers. On Cyber Monday, Buy Now, Pay Later purchases hit an all-time high, up 43% from a year ago, according to Adobe Analytics. The number of items per order also rose 11% annually as shoppers used Buy Now, Pay Later for larger purchases. Consumers risk stacking on debt they can’t pay off with Buy Now, Pay Later purchases, financial researchers say. While Buy Now, Pay Later was initially designed to help shoppers pay for big-ticket purchases, consumers are increasingly using these services to buy groceries and everyday necessities, research shows.
Persons: CNN’s Alicia Wallace Organizations: New, New York CNN, Adobe Analytics, New York Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: New York
The Biden administration is taking action to keep supply chains strong after their pandemic woes. That includes forming a council on supply chain resilience, and pouring money into domestic drug production. To help keep supply chains strong, the White House is forming a new Council on Supply Chain Resilience and pouring money into alleviating drug shortages. Other new supply chain actions include creating a new data-driven Supply Chain Center with the Department of Commerce, which will analyze potential supply chain risks, and $275 million from the Department of Energy in grants towards clean energy supply chains. "Honestly, I think if we're successful, Americans won't have to think about supply chains," Gamble said, "because that means that they're more resilient, they're more stable."
Persons: Biden, , frustratingly —, Joelle Gamble, Gamble Organizations: Service, White, National Economic Council, Department of Commerce, Department of Energy, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: United States
Overall, Adobe estimates one in five Americans plan to use buy now, pay later plans to purchase holiday gifts. Retailers have found that customers offered a buy now, pay later option are more likely to have bigger cart sizes or to convert from browsing to checking out. In its report, the Fed cites research that finds that customers spend 20% more when buy now, pay later is available. LexisNexis Risk Solutions provides many buy now, pay later lenders with alternative credit scores for assessing consumers seeking loans, including those who may not have a traditional credit score. In the past two years, Williams has used buy now, pay later plans at stores including Target, BoxLunch, EyeBuyDirect, and Skims.
Persons: Vivek Pandya, Demishia Alford, Alford, , , she’ll, I’ll, I’m, ” Kevin King, Kevin, ” Alford, Jessica Sarceda, ” Sarceda, Sarceda, Allison Williams, Williams, , ” Jinal Shah, Charles Schwab Organizations: , Federal Reserve Bank of New, Adobe, Adobe Digital, , Retailers, Fed, Consumers, Walmart, LexisNexis, Solutions, Nike, Target, Zip, Associated Press, Charles, Charles Schwab Foundation, Inc, AP Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Greensboro , North Carolina, Santa Monica , California, Amelia , Ohio
Industry practice suggests that a large share of hedge funds trading in repo markets put up zero collateral, meaning they are fuelling activity using enormous amounts of cheap debt. A looming rule by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission would expand the use of central clearing in the cash Treasury and repo market. SEC chair Gary Gensler recently promoted the benefits of central clearing and pointed to data showing high levels of repo trades transacted at zero haircuts. James Tabacchi, CEO of South Street Securities, called zero haircuts a "race to the bottom" and not healthy for markets. However, some market participants have voiced concerns that some of the proposed reforms could be a hurdle for some investors, potentially undermining the goal to improve liquidity and resilience in the Treasury market.
Persons: Rick Wilking, Christopher Clarke, Gary Gensler, James Tabacchi, Richard Chambers, Goldman Sachs, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Paritosh Bansal, Sonali Paul Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Industry, repo, North America Sovereign Financing, Morgan Securities, Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of New, U.S . Securities, Exchange, Corporation, SEC, . Federal Reserve, South Street Securities, Goldman, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, Treasuries, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Carolina
People walk by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in the financial district of New York City, U.S., June 14, 2023. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Demand for new credit in the U.S. over the last year has declined and will likely stay soft in the future, according to a survey released on Monday by the New York Federal Reserve. But even as the overall application rate for new credit declined among those surveyed, interest in applying for more credit card debt rose. The survey said that reading had hit 29% as of October and was 26% for 2023, compared to a 27.2% credit card application rate in 2019. The report noted that expected decline in applications for credit extended to new credit cards, auto loans, mortgages and home refinancing.
Persons: Shannon Stapleton, Michael S, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, New York Federal Reserve, Fed, Consumer, New York Fed, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, U.S
“Having access to an abundance of data is a wonderful problem to have,” Williams said. “It’s important that we continue to prioritize transparency and clarity in data, especially financial market data. In separate comments for the conference, Michelle Neal, who leads the bank’s Markets Group, also touted the need for more transparency in the bond market. “I am looking forward to the increased transparency in on-the-run transaction data” industry participants are working toward, Neal said. “Looking further ahead, we should consider whether to take additional steps toward increased transaction transparency across the Treasury universe, especially for the less liquid segments of the Treasury market, such as the off-the-run market, where transparency is currently limited.”Neal noted that the off-the-run section of the Treasury market was where market issues were concentrated in March 2020, as the coronavirus pandemic sent investors thundering toward cash, upending market functioning.
Persons: John Williams, Carlo Allegri, ” Williams, , Williams, Michelle Neal, Neal, ” Neal, Michael S, Chizu Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Treasury, bank’s Markets, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, U.S
U.S. credit card debt soared to $1.08 trillion in the third quarter of 2023, data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed earlier this month. "I don't think we're facing the next GFC [global financial crisis]," he said on the sidelines of the UBS European Conference. Credit tightening does play a role when it comes to the lag of Federal Reserve monetary policy filtering through to the economy, Pingle suggested. The Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates in March 2022 in an effort to ease inflation and cool the economy. "It's great news for the Federal Reserve in their quest to restore price stability," Pingle told CNBC on Wednesday.
Persons: Jonathan Pingle, Pingle, CNBC's Joumanna Bercetche, It's Organizations: UBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, UBS European Conference, Silicon Valley Bank, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Wednesday, Fed Locations: Silicon
A woman passes by The Federal Reserve Bank of New York in New York City, U.S., March 13, 2023. The relative stability of New York Fed expectations data contrasts with that seen in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. It found in November a rise in year-ahead expected inflation to 4.4% from 4.2% in October, with five-year expected inflation up to 3.2%, from October’s 3%. Over the last year and a half the Fed has aggressively raised rates in a bid to cool high inflation. But it kept alive the prospect of more action should inflation not fall further on the path back to 2%.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, there’s, Jerome Powell, Powell, , Michael S, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, Consumer, New, New York Fed, University of Michigan Consumer, University of Michigan, Federal, Committee, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, U.S, September’s, New York, York, October’s
Consumers’ expectations for inflation one year and five years from now both dropped 0.1 percentage points from the month before, to land at 3.6% and 2.7%, respectively. However, median inflation expectations at the three-year horizon remained unchanged at 3%, a yearly high. On Friday, the University of Michigan’s closely watched consumer survey showed sentiment was waning about the current economic state and that inflation expectations ticked up over the long run. The median expected growth in household income ticked up a tenth of a percentage point to 3.1%. Overall, more respondents to the New York Fed survey said their households were better off than they were this time last year.
Persons: they’ll Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal Reserve, Fed, University of Michigan’s, New Locations: Minneapolis, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, York
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock exchange during morning trading on November 10, 2023 in New York City. U.S. stock futures inched down Sunday night after Moody's Investors Service lowered its U.S. credit rating outlook to negative from stable. Moody's on Friday underscored the U.S.' "very large" fiscal deficits and partisan gridlock in Washington as contributing factors for the downgrade. The ratings agency reaffirmed America's credit rating at AAA, the highest level. The S&P 500 rose 1.3% the previous week, while the Dow and Nasdaq gained about 0.7% and 2.4%, respectively.
Persons: Moody's, Fitch, Jay Hatfield, That's, Lisa Cook Organizations: New York Stock, Moody's Investors Service, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, AAA, U.S, Infrastructure Capital Management, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Dow Locations: New York City . U.S, Washington, Hatfield
“So many more people have credit cards now.”Wise says the main thing to watch for is how strapped consumers are in their overall financial condition. There are signs the consumer may still have a little left in the tank. And speaking of tanks, gas prices have been coming down, a move that will free up a little more money for consumers to spend. And this occurred while consumers repeatedly tell surveys they are feeling gloomy and pessimistic about the state of the economy. The pace of increase in consumer prices has fallen from around 9% annually in the summer of 2022 to under 4% now.
Persons: , Donghoon Lee, , TransUnion, TrasnUnion, Charlie Wise, ” Wise, we’ve, ” Patrick De Haan, De Haan, Lisa Sturtevant, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Joseph Brusuelas, Tuan Nyugen Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York Fed, TransUnion, , MLS, Federal, ” Goldman, Adobe Locations: U.S, California
Americans now owe $1.08 trillion on their credit cards, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported Tuesday. Credit card rates spiked more than 5% with the Federal Reserve's recent string of 11 rate hikes, including four in 2023. As the federal funds rate rose, the prime rate did, as well, and credit card rates followed suit. "Americans are addicted to credit cards, no question," said Howard Dvorkin, a certified public accountant and the chairman of Debt.com. How to tackle costly credit card debt
Persons: TransUnion, Charlie Wise, Wise, Greg McBride, Howard Dvorkin, Debt.com Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed, TransUnion, Federal, Finance, Bankrate, Debt.com Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, TransUnion
That climbing "credit card delinquencies" rate may trend higher this holiday season. Knowing what the words credit card delinquencies mean is important because being delinquent or late with card payments can lower your credit score. Annual percentage rate (APR)If you're paying for holiday purchases with a credit card, you should know the annual percentage rate, or APR, on it before you buy. The average APR on a credit card is more than 21%, according to Bankrate, and nearly 30% for retail store credit cards. A LendingTree survey of 100 cards found some retail cards can have interest rates as high as 35%.
Persons: Matt Schulz, LendingTree Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New
Morning Bid: Oil-fueled rally turns to Powell
  + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
[1/2] Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell answers a question during a press conference following a closed two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S., November 1, 2023. And that's hit home by dragging U.S. pump prices down to levels not seen since March. Overall, U.S. 10-year yields remained on the back foot at 4.57% first thing and ahead of Wednesday's auction. Although Asian and European stocks fell back a bit, Wall St stock futures were unchanged before the bell. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Mike Dolan, who's, Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, Michelle Bowman, Austan Goolsbee, Christopher Waller, BoE, Ping, Donald Trump, White, Philip Jefferson, Michael Barr, Lisa Cook, John Williams, Joachim Nagel, Walt Disney, Ralph Lauren, Toby Chopra Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Committee, REUTERS, Mike Dolan Wall, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Atlanta, Fed, Chicago Fed, St, Reuters, Ping An Insurance, HK, New York Fed, Warner Bros Discovery, MGM Resorts, Biogen, Energy, Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, Gaza, Tokyo, Ohio, Kentucky, Brussels, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Cocoa and orange juice futures have hit multi-decade highs as climate change and harsh weather takes their toll on crops in warmer climates. Here’s the latest in the commodities market:Orange juiceOrange juice futures have soared to their highest levels since the commodity began trading in 1966. The January contract for frozen concentrated orange juice is currently sitting around $3.95, up nearly 94% so far this year. The rally has led to a rise in speculative betting, leading some analysts to call orange juice futures the new GameStop. But “the eventual crash in the price of orange juice will be one for the record books,” he quipped.
Persons: Nicole, it’s, they’re, , Dave Reiter, It’s, Brent, David Morrison, stoking, That’s, WeWork, Nathaniel Meyersohn, Ermengarde Jabir, Alicia Wallace, , Ted Rossman Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, OJ, Sunshine State, Futures, GameStop, Reiter Capital Investments, Cocoa, West Texas Intermediate, “ Traders, Trade Nation . Energy, Wheat, Organisation for Economic Co, Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed Locations: New York, Ukraine, Orange, US, Brazil, Mexico, Florida, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Ivory, Chicago, Southeast Asia, Europe, China, Russia, America, United States
John Williams, Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, speaks at an event in New York, U.S., November 6, 2019. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 8 (Reuters) - New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said on Wednesday that the U.S. central bank had made great strides over recent decades in improving how it makes policy over the long run. Fed research analysis three decades ago was largely tactical and "very much about the here and now" of decision making, Williams said in prepared remarks for a speech to a U.S. central bank statistics conference in Washington. But the Fed has now undergone a large transformation both in transparency and how it thinks about making policy as a longer-running strategy, he said. Williams' prepared remarks did not address the monetary policy and economic outlook.
Persons: John Williams, Carlo Allegri, Williams, Michael S, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, New York Federal, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, U.S, New, Washington
A credit card is used on a payment terminal at a shop near Nantes, France, in this illustration picture taken November 6, 2023. The New York Fed report found credit issues are rising, albeit from low levels. The report said increases in credit card delinquency rates were most pronounced for thirtysomething borrowers. “The continued rise in credit card delinquency rates is broad-based across area income and region, but particularly pronounced among millennials and those with auto loans or student loans,” the economist noted. Line chart with data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York show credit card and auto loans delinquencies for over 30 days.
Persons: Stephane Mahe, there's, Donghoon Lee, , Daniel Silver, Morgan, Lisa Cook, Michael S, Andrea Ricci, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York Fed, New, Fed, The New York Fed, New York Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York, Thomson Locations: Nantes, France, The, U.S, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New
Morning Bid: Some payback, but bonds hug gains on oil
  + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
The oil price slide was helped by signs from Israel that it's open to pauses in the Gaza fighting. The typically hawkish Minneapolis Fed boss Neel Kashkari insisted it was still too early to take another rate hike off the table. Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its policy interest rate again, as expected, by another quarter point to a 12-year high of 4.35%. Overall, the global stocks picture reflected some of the cooling of last week's rally and some of the China export numbers. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Lucas Jackson, Mike Dolan, that's, Neel Kashkari, Christopher Waller, Michael Barr, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Jeffrey Schmid, Zimmer, Jack Henry, Akamai, Christina Fincher Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Minneapolis Fed, International Monetary Fund, Reserve Bank of Australia, Asia bourses, UBS, Credit Suisse, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Michael Barr , New York Fed, Dallas Fed, Horton, Mosaic, Emerson Electric, Occidental, Devon Energy, Products, Chemicals, Gen, Fidelity, Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, Israel, Gaza, China, Asia, Japan, Hong Kong, Swiss, Canada, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Michael Barr ,, Lorie Logan , Kansas, eBay, Gilead, Occidental Petroleum
The increases in credit card delinquency were the sharpest among borrowers in the range of 30 to 39 years old, according to the New York Fed. Newly delinquent auto loan balances continued to climb, as well, with transitions into serious delinquencies hitting 13-year highs, survey data showed. Still, thanks mostly to higher-quality mortgage loans, overall delinquencies remain below pre-pandemic levels, New York Fed researchers said. Credit card balances, which in the second quarter surpassed the trillion-dollar mark for the first time, continued to grow at historic rates. This year is on pace to have the lowest origination values since 2014, New York Fed data shows.
Persons: , Donghoon Lee, , Mortgage originations Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed, ” New York Fed, Mortgage Locations: Minneapolis, New, New York
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