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Stubbornly high core inflation virtually cemented the likelihood of a quarter percentage point cut from the Federal Reserve, which historically has avoided larger moves unless absolutely necessary. Shelter inflation is putting a floor under the CPI and likely keeping the Fed from reducing interest rates by more 25 basis points. "History back to 1990 supports the idea that an initial Fed rate cut of 50 basis points signals an imminent recession (2001 and 2007). "Their first cut will almost certainly be 25 basis points," Colas said. But the Fed, which targets inflation at 2%, prefers core readings as a better longer-term gauge for inflation.
Persons: Dow Jones, , Nick Colas, Jerome Powell, Colas, That's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, CPI, Fed, Traders, Open Market, PCE
Markets were also cautious ahead of the first debate between U.S. presidential hopefuls Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with the candidates neck-and-neck ahead of the November election. The dollar was down 0.2% at 142.18 yen as of 0009 GMT, heading back towards the recent low of 141.75 yen, a level previously not seen since Aug. 5. The euro was little changed at $1.1019, after sliding to $1.10155 overnight for the first time since Aug. 19. Sterling was flat at $1.3080, following its drop to $1.3049 in the prior session, the weakest since Aug. 21. The stakes are particularly high considering the debate between Trump and President Joe Biden ultimately spurred the incumbent to drop out of the race.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Sterling, , Kyle Rodda, Trump, Harris, Joe Biden Organizations: Federal Reserve, Capital.com, Republican, Democratic, Trump
Steve Eisman of "The Big Short" fame said he's unfazed by the weakness in bank stocks as well as any uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's next easing cycle. To Eisman, there's nothing to worry about. Eisman shot to fame by shorting collateralized debt obligations to profit from the demise of subprime mortgage loans before the 2008 financial crisis. Wednesday's data showed the consumer price index , a broad measure of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, increased 0.2% in August , in line with the Dow Jones consensus. The economy Concerns about lower-income consumers have also increased recently, but Eisman said they are not indicative of a systemic issue endangering the wider economy.
Persons: Steve Eisman, he's, Neuberger Berman, shorting, Michael Lewis's, Eisman, Dow Jones Organizations: Federal, JPMorgan, Ally Financial, Dollar Locations: U.S
U.S. stock futures were little changed Tuesday night ahead of the August consumer inflation report due Wednesday morning. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both dipped 0.1%. Traders are anticipating a key economic report Wednesday morning: August's consumer price index. The CPI report and Thursday's producer price index could help determine the size of a widely expected rate cut at the end of the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting on Sept. 18. Fed funds futures trading suggests a 69% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut and a 31% likelihood of a 50-basis-point reduction, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.
Persons: Dow, Dow Jones, CME's, Kristina Hooper, Hooper Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, GameStop, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Nvidia, JPMorgan, CPI, Federal
Bank of America sees yet another tailwind for utilities: The sector is a way to play falling interest rates. To that end, CNBC Pro used FactSet data to screen the S & P 1500 utilities sector, looking for companies that meet the following criteria. A total return – the stock price plus the value of reinvested dividends – of at least 10% in 2024. The stock offers a dividend yield of 3.0% and has a 2024 total return of nearly 23%. Year to date, the stock has a total return of nearly 38%, and it offers a dividend yield of 2.5%.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, Garrick Rochow, Morgan Stanley, David Arcaro, Diego's, , Fred Imbert Organizations: Constellation Energy, NRG Energy, Mizuho Securities, Bank of America, Utilities, Real, CNBC Pro, Street, CMS Energy, Consumers Energy, CMS, NextEra, Management, Google, CNBC, PPL Locations: Jackson, Michigan, , Florida, 1Q24, Allentown, Penn
MarineMax is a smart pick for investors looking for beneficiaries of lower interest rates, according to Citi. Analyst James Hardiman upgraded shares of the boat dealer to buy from neutral and upped his price target by $4, or 10%, to $44. Key to Hardiman's upgrade is the idea that the stock can get a boost when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. After holding interest rates steady at 5.25% to 5.50% for more than a year, the long-awaited first cut may come as soon as next week. Shares briefly popped more than 7% in early Monday trading, a reprieve after a tough 2024, when MarineMax shares have tumbled more than 21%.
Persons: James Hardiman, CME's, Hardiman Organizations: Citi, Federal Reserve
The Nobel-prize-winning economist called on the central bank to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its approaching policy meeting. AdvertisementFriday's weaker-than-expected reading did not completely ease concerns, putting pressure on the Fed to ease policy quickly. But Stiglitz, speaking ahead of the data's release, told CNBC that he would pursue deeper rate cuts regardless of Friday's report. Builder confidence also tanked to a December bottom, though experts anticipate that falling interest rates should eventually boost sentiment. AdvertisementMeanwhile, homebuyers appear sidelined as they wait for interest rate cuts to ease mortgage rates.
Persons: , Joseph Stiglitz, Stiglitz, homebuyers Organizations: Service, CNBC, Business
Traders continued to price in a greater likelihood that the Fed will kick off what is expected to be a protracted easing campaign in September with a quarter percentage point, or 25 basis point, reduction. "My base-case scenario is that we are on a journey of 25 basis point cuts, probably for the next eight meetings, a couple hundred basis points cumulative," economist Paul McCulley said on CNBC's " Squawk on the Street ." "But if we see weaker growth, and particularly weaker jobs, then I think we could have a bit of front-loading and start the process with 50 basis point cuts." That, among other vows to support the economy now that inflation has waned, provided some indication that a 50 basis point move is at least on the table. Markets expect the central bank to knock off a full percentage point this year and at least that much in 2025.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Paul McCulley, Powell, Joseph LaVorgna, you've, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Rick Rieder, Goolsbee Organizations: Federal, Traders, CME, Cornell, Georgetown, Fed, Nikko Securities, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Locations: Powell's, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Atlanta, Chicago
Evans pointed to signs of the economy slowing down, including what he called the "deteriorating" U.S. labor market. The Fed funds futures market suggests that investors are expecting at least three rate cuts by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. "A few rate cuts are not going to prevent a recession. Average recession is 10 months… It takes something like a year before fed cuts actually start to give a boost to the economy," he said. "The market believes that the fed fund rate at the end of next year will be 3%.
Persons: Garry Evans, Evans, It's, Jerome Powell, isn't Organizations: BCA Research, . Federal, BCA Research's, U.S . Labor Department, Traders Locations: U.S, Jackson
The former Treasury Secretary told Bloomberg TV that the central bank's interest rate strategy has largely succeeded, even though Fed officials made a major blunder by first underestimating pandemic-era inflation. In 2021, the Fed mischaracterized inflation as "transitory," citing that COVID supply chain disruptions would eventually blow away. Once central bankers grew to understand that inflation needed an interest rate response, the Fed initiated the most aggressive policy-tightening campaign in recent history. In that period, Summers often showcased skepticism that the Fed could clamp down on inflation this way without economic consequences. AdvertisementNow, the main question is how far interest rates could fall during the Fed's September meeting.
Persons: , Larry Summers, Summers, I've, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Business, Fed
We have to remember, the Fed made one mistake, the transitory" call on inflation, said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. Specifically, the Fed is faced with how quickly and aggressively it should respond now that the inflation rate is waning . "Jay Powell says they don't want to be data point dependent, and I think that makes sense. I don't think you have signs of weakness in the economy. You don't have signs of inflation being controlled, and you don't have any signal for the Fed to switch focus."
Persons: Jerome Powell's, Jackson, Quincy Krosby, Krosby, Richard Clarida, nonfarm payrolls, Powell, Jay Powell, Clarida, we'll, Komal, Kumar, He's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, LPL, CNBC, Sri, Kumar Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Joe Raedle | Getty ImagesThe president has no direct control over interest ratesAs it stands, the president exerts no direct control over interest rates. The Federal Reserve sets interest rates, and it operates independently of the White House. Last month, Trump said that if elected he would "bring interest rates way down." Now, however, Trump has cautioned against the Fed lowering rates shortly before the presidential election in November. "I think he's going to do something to probably help the Democrats, I think, if he lowers interest rates."
Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Raedle, Brett House, Trump, Fed Trump, Jerome Powell, Trump's, reappoint Powell, Powell, Greg McBride, Wells Fargo Organizations: Federal Reserve, White, Fed, Columbia Business School, Reserve Act, Republican, National Association of Black Journalists, Markets, U.S, Bloomberg Businessweek, Fox Business, Barclays Locations: Lago, Palm Beach , Florida, Chicago
In just a few short days, markets have taken some of the urgency off the table for the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates. Earlier in the week, there were even some calls for an emergency intermeeting rate cut. At the least, markets figured the Fed was a near-certainty to reduce benchmark rates by at least a half percentage point. Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel has been one of the loudest voices for aggressive Fed action, calling Monday for an emergency cut . The Fed has been holding its benchmark rate in a range between 5.25%-5.50% for more than a year.
Persons: we've, Steven Wieting, Wieting, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Jerome Powell, Siegel, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reserve, Citi Wealth, Labor Department
However, investors can continue generating portfolio income if they snap up the right dividend stocks. Dividend yields that are too high may also raise the question of whether the company can sustain these payments to investors. Data storage player Seagate Technology made the cut, with a three-year annualized dividend yield of 7.9%, according to Bank of America's analysis. Bank of America rates KeyCorp as a buy, and it sees the company and its peers benefiting as the Fed dials back its policy. Devon, which the bank rates as a buy, this week surpassed the Street's estimates on core earnings per share in the second quarter, per FactSet.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, Wamsi Mohan, Mohan, Ebrahim Poonawala, Kraft, Merck Organizations: Federal Reserve, FedWatch, Bank of America, Seagate Technology, Bank of, KeyCorp, Devon Energy, Kraft Heinz, Simon Property Group Locations: Devon, Bank
JPMorgan raises 2024 recession odds to 35%
  + stars: | 2024-08-08 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The bank raised its probability for a U.S. or global recession to 35% by year end, chief global economist Bruce Kasman told clients in a Wednesday note. Meanwhile, JPMorgan kept its odds for a recessionary period by the second half of 2025 at 45%. But traders got better news on the labor market front on Thursday, with the volume of weekly jobless claims coming in lower than economists expected. To be sure, despite raising his odds, Kasman said investors should not assume all signs point to a recession. In fact, Kasman described his increase to near-term recession risk as modest.
Persons: Bruce Kasman, Kasman, Goldman Sachs Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal, Fed Locations: U.S
Initial claims for unemployment insurance totaled less than expected last week, countering other signs that the labor market is weakening. Stock market futures, which had been negative earlier, turned sharply positive following the 8:30 a.m. In the previous week, claims had jumped by 14,000, adding to worries that layoffs are on the rise. "If you're looking for additional weakness in the labor market, you'll need to find it somewhere else." Concerns escalated over the state of the labor market following last Friday's nonfarm payrolls report, which showed an increase of just 114,000 in July.
Persons: Dow Jones, Beryl, Robert Frick, nonfarm Organizations: Labor Department, Navy Federal Credit Union, Federal Reserve Locations: Michigan, Texas, U.S
Disappointing economic data recently generated worries that the Fed missed an opportunity at its meeting last week to, if not cut rates outright, send a clearer signal that easing is on the way. In the past, the Fed has implemented just nine such cuts, and all have come amid extreme duress, according to Bank of America. Lacking a catalyst for an intermeeting cut, the Fed is nonetheless expected to cut rates almost as swiftly as it hiked from March 2022-July 2023. Why wait?”LaVorgna, though, isn’t convinced the Fed is in a life-or-death battle against recession. Still, any quakes in the data, such as Friday’s downside surprise to the nonfarm payrolls numbers, could ignite recession talk quickly.
Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Steven Blitz, , Andrew Hollenhorst, , ’ ”, Michael Gapen, Powell, Joseph LaVorgna, , “ They’ll, isn’t, Goldman Sachs, David Rosenberg Organizations: Federal Reserve, TS Lombard, Fed, Citigroup, Bank of America, Nikko Securities, Rosenberg Research Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Nikko
As investors search for income amid the market volatility, high-yield bonds are an attractive place to be, according to BlackRock's Rick Rieder. Meanwhile, credit spreads in corporate and high-yield bonds — which have been tight — are widening . Bonds rated BB+ and lower by Standard & Poor's and Fitch, as well as those rated Ba1 by Moody's, are considered high yield. Rieder also manages the BlackRock Flexible Income ETF , which has about 20% of its portfolio in high-yield credit, its second-largest sector holding. BINC YTD mountain BlackRock High Yield ETF year to date He has been reducing some exposure to investment grade bonds.
Persons: BlackRock's Rick Rieder, Stocks, Bonds, Fitch, Rieder Organizations: Dow Jones, Treasury, Poor's, Moody's, SEC, Federal Locations: BlackRock
CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The Dow plummeted over 1,000 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 3% and 3.4%, respectively. Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel urged the Federal Reserve to make an emergency 75-basis-point cut in the federal funds rate following Friday's disappointing jobs data. Siegel believes the current fed funds rate "should be somewhere between 3.5% and 4%," citing the higher-than-expected unemployment rate and declining inflation as reasons for the cuts. "How much have we moved the fed funds rate?
Persons: Berkshire Hathaway, Amit Mehta, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, CNBC's, Korea's Kospi, Richard Kaye Organizations: CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow, Nasdaq, Tech, Nvidia, Tesla, Berkshire, Google, Department of Justice, Federal Reserve, Chicago Federal, Nikkei, Honda, Renesas Electronics, CSI Locations: U.S, Asia, Pacific
CNBC Daily Open: Dow sheds 1,000 points
  + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Abid Ali | Kevin Lim | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Wall Street sinksThe Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 suffered their sharpest declines in nearly two years, as growing concerns about the U.S. economy rocked global stock markets. The Dow plummeted over 1,000 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 3% and 3.4%, respectively. Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel urged the Federal Reserve to make an emergency 75-basis-point cut in the federal funds rate following Friday's disappointing jobs data. [PRO] Don't panicDespite a global stock market rout, several investors and strategists advised against panicking at this point.
Persons: Berkshire Hathaway, Amit Mehta, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, CNBC's, cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, bitcoin, Nexo, Antoni Trenchev, panicking Organizations: CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow, Nasdaq, Tech, Nvidia, Tesla, Berkshire, Google, Department of Justice, Federal Reserve, Chicago Federal, bitcoin Locations: U.S
(This is CNBC Pro's live coverage of Monday's Wall Street chatter as global markets sell off. — Lisa Kailai Han 7:02 a.m.: How long sell-offs typically last Bad news: The current market sell-off may have further to go. — Lisa Kailai Han 6:09 a.m.: Oppenheimer's Stoltzfus: Best to not 'jump to conclusions' Investors need to have a cool head as global markets sell off, according to Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus. — Fred Imbert 5:51 a.m.: Global markets in an 'aggressive risk-unwind', Vital Knowledge says Fears of a U.S. recession are pressuring global markets, leading investors around the world to sell some of this year's top winners, according to Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge. "Markets are caught in an aggressive risk-unwind as equities plunge around the world, with tech getting hit particularly hard," he wrote in a note Monday.
Persons: Wharton's Siegel, Jeremy Siegel, CNBC's, Siegel, hasn't, it's, … They're, , Lisa Kailai Han, Tom Lee, Lee, Duncan Toms, Toms, Fred Imbert, Victoria Greene, Greene, It's, Nimrit Kang, — Lisa Kailai Han, Dan Ives, Gene Goldman, Gennadiy Goldberg, Ives, Goldman, Goldberg, Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus, Evercore, Ed Hyman, Hyman, Adam Crisafulli, Crisafulli Organizations: CNBC, Stock, Nikkei, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Wharton, Federal Reserve, Fundstrat Global, HSBC, G Squared, Wealth, NorthStar Asset Management, Street, Wedbush, TD Securities, Federal, NASDAQ, U.S, Fed, Global Locations: U.S, Europe, Japan, China
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee on Monday vowed that the central bank would react to signs of weakness in the economy and indicated that interest rates could be too restrictive now. Policymakers have been focused on the "real" fed funds rate, which is the Fed's benchmark minus the inflation rate. As inflation declines, the real rate increases — unless the Fed chooses to cut. The real rate now is around 2.73%; Fed officials judge the long-term real rate to be closer to 0.5%. Traders expect the Fed to slice 1.25-1.5 percentage points off the funds rate by the end of the year, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, nonfarm, I'm, we're Organizations: Chicago Federal, Dow Jones, Fed, Labor Department, Traders
Data released Friday showed 114,000 jobs were created last month, far below a Dow Jones estimate of 185,000. The S & P 500, accounting for Monday's expected losses, will be down around 9% from its recent high. She sees support emerging for the S & P 500 around the 5,000 level, or another 6.5% from here. If market conditions get very dire in the meantime, there is a chance the Federal Reserve could step in, investors hope. "The fed funds rate right now should be somewhere between 3.5% and 4%," he said .
Persons: Dow Jones, Katie Stockton, There's, Stockton, CNBC's, Jeremy Siegel, They've Organizations: Nikkei, Federal, Wharton Locations: Japan, U.S
US stocks plunged Monday amid recession fears and the yen carry trade unwind. AdvertisementUS stocks plunged on Monday as investors worried about a potential recession and the knock-on effects from the unwind of the yen carry trade. All of those factors have drummed up fears that a recession could be imminent, especially given that the Federal Reserve could be "behind the curve" in its failure to cut interest rates last month. AdvertisementHere's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Monday:Some believe the Fed should implement an emergency interest rate cut, including Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel. AdvertisementBut perhaps the biggest driver of Monday's stock market decline was the unwind of the yen carry trade.
Persons: Dow Jones, , payrolls, Warren, Berkshire Hathaway, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, LPL, Ed Yardeni Organizations: Nasdaq, Bank of, Service, Dow Jones, Apple, Amazon, Intel, Federal, Here's, Bank of Japan, Yahoo Finance Locations: Japan
The Federal Reserve is catching some heat for the historic stock market plunge. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve is to blame for the historic stock market plunge since last week, according to a growing chorus of market experts. JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka said in a Monday note that the lack of Fed rate cuts in the first half of the year will weigh on economic growth in the second half, and that any coming interest rate cuts from the Fed likely won't be enough. AdvertisementRegardless of what the Fed's motivation might be with waiting until September to cut interest rates, the market is taking away a pretty clear message. "There is growing sentiment is that the Fed has waited too long to cut interest rates and is now behind the curve," Comerica Wealth Management CIO John Lynch said.
Persons: , Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, Jerome Powell, Powell, they've, we're, Kamala Harris, Mislav Matejka, Matejka, Paul Volcker, Volcker, DataTrek, Nicholas Colas, John Lynch Organizations: Federal, Service, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, CNBC, Washington DC, JPMorgan, Fed, Comerica Wealth Management Locations: Iran, Japan, Washington
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