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The eligibility of Italian securities under the ECB's TPI "is a key driver of its BBB+/Stable credit rating," Scope said. It will review its rating of Italy's debt on Dec. 1. More specifically, countries must respect the EU's economic prescriptions, have a sustainable public debt, and not show any macroeconomic imbalances. RATING AGENCIES' TESTBefore Scope assesses Italy's rating in December, the country faces scrutiny from several larger agencies. From mid-October to mid-November, S&P Global, DBRS, Fitch and Moody's all have the euro zone's third largest economy up for review in what analysts say will be key tests for the stability of Italian bond yields.
Persons: Giorgia, Christine Lagarde, DBRS, Fitch, Sara Rossi, Gavin Jones, Andrew Heavens Organizations: MILAN, Central, Reuters, ECB, P, Italian Treasury, European Union, TPI, European, Thomson Locations: Italy, Italian, Rome
Oil up $1 on tight U.S. supply, China demand
  + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Robert Harvey | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
An Aramco employee walks near an oil tank at Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal in Saudi Arabia May 21, 2018. REUTERS/Ahmed Jadallah/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsCompanies Saudi Arabian Oil Co FollowLONDON, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Friday and were headed for a gain of about 3% for the week, driven by tight U.S. supply and expectations of strong fuel demand in China during the Golden Week holiday. China's fuel demand was set to firm as the week-long Golden Week holiday began on Friday. "(An) increase in international travel during the Golden Week holiday is boosting Chinese oil demand," ANZ analysts said in a client note. Saudi Arabia and Russia's supply cuts will dominate oil prices for the remainder of this year, but a run towards $100 per barrel could be capped by macroeconomic headwinds, analysts said.
Persons: Ahmed Jadallah, Brent, Carsten Fritsch, Robert Harvey, Katya Golubkova, Sonali Paul, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Rights Companies Saudi Arabian Oil, . West Texas, ANZ, Golden, St . Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Aramco, Saudi, Saudi Arabia, China, U.S, Cushing , Oklahoma, Russia, St
Morning Bid: Spiky quarter ends in uneasy market calm
  + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. At 4.53% on Friday, the 10-year benchmark was some 15 basis points off Thursday's peak and two-year yields fell back to their lowest since Sept. 18. Some optimism from Beijing about a possible year-end summit between President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden helped. Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Friday:* US August PCE inflation gauge, personal income and spending. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Thursday's, Xi Jinping, Joe Biden, Lifeng, Federal Reserve's, Jerome Powell, Thomas Barkin, it's, Kathleen O'Neill Paese, John Williams, Toby Chopra Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Organization of, Petroleum, Wall Street Journal, Federal, Fed, Richmond Fed, Nike, HK, Reuters, Mercedes, Benz, Chicago, University of, Louis Federal Reserve, New York Fed, U.S, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Beijing, China, Washington, Hong Kong, Nio
"The figures reinforce the view that interest rates have likely reached their peak in the current tightening cycle." The inflation drop was broad-based, with all price categories growing at a slower pace and energy prices falling outright for a fifth consecutive month. Euro zone inflation briefly hit double digit last autumn amid a combination of soaring energy costs, post-pandemic snags in supply chains and high government spending. So far, the ECB is sticking to its expectations of an economic rebound next year, partly thanks to higher real wages as inflation falls. "The rise in interest rates has been much quicker than in previous times so looking to the past as a model may mislead," Schumacher added.
Persons: Diego Iscaro, Dirk Schumacher, Schumacher, Francesco Canepa, Toby Chopra Organizations: Central, ECB, P Global Market Intelligence, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany, China
REUTERS/Fabian Bimmer/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsBERLIN, Sept 28 (Reuters) - German inflation fell in September to its lowest level since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, signalling what could be the beginning of the end for the high inflation that has weighed heavily on Europe's largest economy. Germany's core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, fell to 4.6% year-on-year from 5.5% in August. Meanwhile, five economic institutes predict Germany's economy will shrink by 0.6% this year, as rising interest rates take their toll on investment and still high inflation depresses consumption. The ECB is keeping a close eye on euro zone inflation data, with September's reading due to be published on Friday. Spain earlier reported a 3.2% harmonised inflation rate for September.
Persons: Fabian Bimmer, Ralph Solveen, ING's Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Maria Martinez, Miranda Murray, Friederike Heine, Kirsten Donovan, Alison Williams Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Union, Reuters, ECB, Central, Thomson Locations: Hamburg, Russia, Ukraine, Spain
FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — The head of the European Central Bank said Monday that interest rates will stay high enough to restrict business activity for “as long as necessary” to beat back inflation. Christine Lagarde said rates would stay high because upward pressure on prices “remains strong” in the 20 countries that use the euro currency. “And yes, we know that 30% — 30% — of the households in the member states have variable interest rate mortgages. Analysts think the ECB may be done raising rates given signs of increasing weakness in the European economy. Higher rates are central banks' chief weapon against excessive inflation.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, , ” Lagarde, , Lagarde Organizations: European Central Bank, European, ECB, Analysts, Bank of England, U.S . Federal Reserve Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany, Russia, Ukraine
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCriticism of European Central Bank is unwarranted, says Bank of France's de GalhauFrançois Villeroy de Galhau, governor of the Bank of France and ECB member, discusses his current perspectives on the European Central Bank's monetary policy.
Persons: Galhau Organizations: European Central Bank, France's, Bank of France, ECB, Central
Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau delivers a speech during the annual meeting of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises leaders at the Bank of France in Paris, France, October 22, 2021. "Gasoline consumption at the pump represents roughly 5% of our total consumption, so it is a small part of total inflation, even if it is what is most visible," he told France Inter radio. "I will say it again this morning, our forecast and our commitment is to bring inflation towards 2% by 2025," he added. Villeroy also reiterated that ECB rates were at a good level and called for patience. "We have passed the peak of inflation, there even seem to be a turnaround in underlying inflation (...) now we have to be perseverant, keep rates at this level for as long as it takes," he said.
Persons: Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Sarah Meyssonnier, Francois Villeroy de, Villeroy, Patience, Sybille de La Hamaide, Gilles Guillaume Our Organizations: France, Bank of France, REUTERS, Rights, European Central Bank, ECB, France Inter, Brent, Thomson Locations: Paris, France, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Ukraine
The new German central bank (Bundesbank) vice-president Claudia Buch poses during a photocall at the Bundesbank headquarters in Frankfurt, May 20, 2014. Buch, who has been the vice-president of Germany's central bank for 10 years after a career in academia, was chosen last week over Spain's Margarita Delgado, the European Parliament's preferred candidate. The EU Parliament will have a final say on the appointment on Wednesday at a vote scheduled for 1400 GMT. At the hearing, Buch said she would immediately resign from her role as an alternate if appointed as chief supervisor. ECB President Christine Lagarde said last week that the 26-member Governing Council followed the rules in Buch's selection.
Persons: Claudia Buch, Ralph Orlowski, Buch, Spain's Margarita Delgado, Joachim Nagel, Christine Lagarde, Marco Zanni, Frank Siebelt, Hugh Lawson, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: REUTERS, Central, Single, EU, ECB, Reuters, Council, Democracy Group, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, FRANKFURT, Spain
Morning Bid: Chips are down
  + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
The global chip sector is stealing the spotlight from major central banks, after the world's top contract chipmaker raised concerns over demand, hitting share prices of semiconductor stocks. In a week packed with central bank meetings, decisions are also due from the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday and Bank of England on Thursday. After the European Central Bank's fireworks last week, the euro will be closely watched as a signal for whether the backlash from more hawkish ECB members is gaining any traction with traders and investors. The BOE is likely to hike interest rates for the 15th time later in the week, while the Fed seems set for a hawkish pause. One more little complication is the steady grind higher in oil prices to new highs that is stoking inflation concerns, just as central banks in most developed economies are at or approaching the end of their tightening cycles.
Persons: Vidya Ranganathan, chipmaker, There's, Kazuo Ueda, BOE, Guindos, Panetta, Sam Holmes Organizations: Vidya, Reuters, General Motors, Ford, Chrysler, International, Co, of, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, ECB, Thomson Locations: Asia, Detroit
ORLANDO, Florida, Sept 17 (Reuters) - Hedge funds cut their net short dollar position by nearly $5 billion last week, according to the latest U.S. futures markets data, the biggest swing towards a more bullish dollar stance since May last year. Less than two months ago, funds' were net short of dollars to the tune of $21.3 billion, the biggest bet against the greenback since June 2021. Speculators' net short dollar position against just the G10 currencies, which was worth $18 billion as recently as July, has now completely evaporated. A short position is essentially a wager an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. Funds cut their net long holdings by 23,151 contracts to 113,080 contracts, the smallest net long since November and the biggest week-on-week reduction since June last year.
Persons: hasn't, Jamie McGeever, Christina Fincher, Lincoln Organizations: Futures, Bank of Japan, U.S . Federal, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, Brazilian, U.S
A man walks in front of the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan, January 18, 2023. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 18 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Attention this week turns to the Federal Reserve and Bank of England policy meetings, and in Asia, the BOJ on Friday. The currency and JGB markets are sending different signals, and both will be seeking more clarity from the BOJ on Friday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Issei Kato, Jamie McGeever, Kazuo Ueda's hawkish, Bond, Li, Guindos, Panetta, Diane Craft Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, The, of, ECB, Federal Reserve, Bank of, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Bank of England, Singapore, China, Moscow
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The long reach of ArmArm shares surged almost 25% on its first day of trading on New York's Nasdaq, and a further 6% in extended trading. "ECB interest rates have reached levels that … will make a substantial contribution to the timely return of inflation to the target," the bank's council said. Focus on the coreThe U.S. producer price index, which measures wholesale prices, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.7% in August — far more than the 0.4% estimate — and 1.6% from a year earlier.
Persons: Rene Haas, , Berkshire Hathaway, Yun Li Organizations: Arm Ltd, Nasdaq, CNBC, U.S, Dow Jones, EU, ECB, PPI, HP Warren, HP Locations: New York, U.S
The U.S. dollar index last stood somewhat lower at 105.32, but still near Thursday's six-month peak of 105.43. The yuan and Australian and New Zealand dollars received a boost after a batch of economic data from China in the Asian morning came in better-than-expected for some key indicators, providing a rare lift in sentiment. The offshore yuan inched up against the dollar to 7.2918 following the release. The Australian dollar , a proxy for China growth, rose nearly 0.3% to $0.6443, while the New Zealand dollar was up 0.2% at $0.5912. The yen stuck near 147.41 per dollar in the Asian morning.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Rodrigo Catril, Sterling, Simon Harvey, Brigid Riley, Indradip Ghosh, Lincoln, Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Central, U.S, greenback, New Zealand, People's Bank of China's, National Bank of Australia, Australian, Mizuho Bank, Thomson Locations: Asia, China, Thursday's, Europe
Stock Market Today: Dow Futures Edge Up; Arm Rallies Premarket
  + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +1 min
Shares of chip designer Arm continued to rise in offhours trading , last up 7% after jumping 25% in its stock-market debut Thursday. Stock futures edged up as Chinese data pointed to stronger-than-expected economic activity and investors awaited U.S. consumer-sentiment data. The Chinese central bank cut a short-term lending rate, in another move to support the country’s recovery. Contracts linked to the S&P 500 and the Dow rose crept higher, while Nasdaq-100 futures were flat. German and Italian 10-year yields rose—in a reversal of Thursday's reaction to the European Central Bank's interest-rate hike, according to Joost van Leenders, investment strategist at Van Lanschot Kempen.
Persons: Seng, Oil, Joost van Leenders, Van Lanschot Organizations: Nasdaq, Nikkei, Brent, Treasury Locations: China, U.S, Europe, Michigan
Dollar firm as markets eye China data
  + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
The dollar was on the front foot in Asia on Friday, retaining overnight gains against peers after strong U.S. economic data and an ECB rate hike, with traders' attention warily turning to a data deluge from China. U.S. retail sales received a boost from higher gasoline prices, increasing 0.6% in August versus an estimated 0.2% rise, while market participants reacted to the European Central Bank's 25-basis point hike. "The data today will be super important," said Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at the National Bank of Australia. The offshore yuan inched further down against the dollar to 7.2918 ahead of the data. "In that sense it means that any disappointment coming out of the data today, we'll likely see the CNY under pressure," with risks to the Aussie and the Kiwi as well, he said.
Persons: Rodrigo Catril, we'll Organizations: Central, U.S, Mizuho Bank, National Bank of Australia, People's Bank of China's, Kiwi Locations: Asia, China . U.S, Thursday's, China
Brighter data from China meanwhile has helped lift sentiment across global markets, except for China, heading into the weekend. While Japan's Nikkei (.N225) rose 1% and European shares opened higher (.STOXX), China shares reversed earlier gains (.CSI300). European markets continued to cheer the likely end of the European Central Bank's rate hiking cycle. And even if the ECB suggested rates would stay higher for longer, markets are already looking past that to rate cuts as economic growth weakens. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Eric Cox, Nick Macfie Organizations: United Auto Workers, Ford Michigan Assembly Plant, REUTERS, General Motors, Ford, Chrysler, United, Workers, Japan's Nikkei, European, ECB, SoftBank's Arm Holdings, Nasdaq, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Uni of Michigan, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Wayne , Michigan, U.S, Australia, China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPausing interest rate hikes now would be the right decision from the ECB, strategist saysMabrouk Chetouane, head of global market strategy at Natixis, says a pause in the European Central Bank's rate-hiking cycle is necessary to assess the state of European economies.
Persons: Mabrouk Chetouane Organizations: ECB
Hong Kong's Hang Seng (.HSI) added 1.2%, and mainland Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) rose 0.2%, flipping from early small losses. The overall improving economic outlook bolstered the Chinese yuan, which gained about 0.3% to 7.2709 per dollar in offshore markets . Australia's dollar , which often trades as a proxy for the country's top trading partner, rose 0.3% to $0.6460. The so-called U.S. dollar index edged down 0.08% to 105.33, after hitting the highest since early March at 105.43 on Thursday. The dollar index is on track for a ninth straight weekly advance, the longest run in nine years.
Persons: Issei Kato, Moody's, It's, Kyle Rodda, Tony Sycamore, Jerome, Sycamore, Brent, Kevin Buckland, Stephen Coates Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Japan's Nikkei, U.S, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, ECB, IG, U.S . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, U.S
The ECB increased interest rates by 25 basis points, a 10th consecutive hike taking its main rate to a record high of 4%. But perhaps the biggest development came in a firm suggestion ECB Governing Council members do not expect further rate hikes at this time, and that rates may be held steady for some time. "The Governing Council's future decisions will ensure that the key ECB interest rates will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary." U.S. futures were cautiously higher after Thursday's rally off the back of the blockbuster IPO of Arm Holdings. The session also saw the release of the U.S. producer price index, a key inflation metric that came in above estimates.
Persons: Holger Schmieding Organizations: Household, ECB, Staff, Arm Holdings Locations: Berenberg . Asia, Pacific, U.S
The yen pulled away from near a 10-month trough to the dollar as a decline in long-term Treasury yields removed some support for the U.S. currency. The U.S. dollar index - measuring the currency against a basket of six developed-market peers, including the euro and yen - edged 0.1% lower to 104.63 in the Asian morning. The euro added 0.1% to $1.07415, continuing its grind higher from last week's low of $1.0686. The dollar slipped 0.2% to 147.125 yen , falling back from near last week's peak of 147.875. At the same time, a hike by the ECB "could potentially catalyse a shift in momentum, relegating the dollar to a secondary position as the euro gains traction," he added.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, James Kniveton, Kevin Buckland, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Treasury, Labor Department, Traders, ECB, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Melbourne
CFTC data show that funds and speculators are holding a chunky net short yen position worth around $8.2 billion. Contrast that with the euro position, and it is not difficult to envisage a potential narrowing of the gulf in the weeks and months ahead. Citi's U.S. economic surprises index has been positive since May and the euro zone index has been in negative territory since May. Euro zone interest rate traders reckon the ECB is done raising rates, and are now betting on around 70 bps of rate cuts next year. "Today's ECB policy update and stronger U.S. data for Q3 is further encouraging those expectations placing downward pressure on EUR/USD," MUFG's Lee Hardman wrote on Thursday.
Persons: Pedro Nunes, gunning, MUFG's Lee Hardman, Jamie McGeever, David Evans Organizations: Bank of, REUTERS, Rights, Central, ECB, U.S, HSBC, Futures, CFTC, Bank of Japan, Deutsche Bank, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Bank of Portugal, Carregado, Alenquer, Portugal, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, U.S
Dollar hovers above 3-month low to euro as ECB decision looms
  + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The yen pulled away from near a 10-month trough to the dollar as a decline in long-term Treasury yields removed some support for the U.S. currency. The U.S. dollar index — measuring the currency against a basket of six developed-market peers, including the euro and yen — edged 0.1% lower to 104.63 in the Asian morning. The euro added 0.1% to $1.07415, continuing its grind higher from last week's low of $1.0686. The dollar slipped 0.2% to 147.125 yen , falling back from near last week's peak of 147.875. At the same time, a hike by the ECB "could potentially catalyze a shift in momentum, relegating the dollar to a secondary position as the euro gains traction," he added.
Persons: James Kniveton Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Labor Department, Traders, ECB, Reuters Locations: U.S, Melbourne
Paramilitary police officers stand guard in front of the headquarters of the People's Bank of China, the central bank (PBOC), in Beijing, China September 30, 2022. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 15 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Asian markets are set to end the week strongly following risk-friendly moves in the U.S. and Europe on Thursday, although a deluge of top-tier economic data from China on Friday could sour the mood at a stroke. The latest indicators from the region's largest economy to be released include house prices, fixed asset investment, retail sales, industrial production and unemployment, all for August. However, all that could be parked for another day if investors decide to run with Thursday's bullish momentum.
Persons: Tingshu Wang, Jamie McGeever, Josie Kao Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, European Commission, PMI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Beijing, China, U.S, Europe, Asia, Japan, Indonesia, New Zealand
European markets opened mixed on Thursday as investors in the region look ahead to the European Central Bank's next rate decision. Autos fell 1.4% as initial optimism over an EU probe into Chinese electric vehicle subsidies soured over fears of retaliatory action. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had forecast an increase of 3.6%. The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy and is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, rose by 0.3% on the month and 4.3% on the year. Economists polled by Dow Jones signaled rises of 0.2% and 4.3%, respectively.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Central Bank's, EU, ECB, U.S . Department of Labor, Federal
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