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☆ The message top corporate CFOs are sending directly to Fed presidents isn't a bullish one
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

The Fed remains focused on the labor market and cooling wage growth while raising unemployment as the key to bringing hot services inflation down. "I shared with him [a regional Fed president] that they should stop, not pause," said another CFO on the call. "The consumer is being smart," the CFO said, but the Fed focus on bringing unemployment up can break the consumer. "I gave this message to him [a Fed president]: we can manage through this with unemployment below 4%." CFOs said the labor market remains tight and the wage gains, while slowing, have created a higher wage base which can't be turned back.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Drew Angerer, That's, Wall, Randy Kroszner, CFOs, Sara Eisen, Kroszner, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Market, Fed, CNBC, CNBC Fed Survey, Chatham House, Corporations, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Locations: Washington ,

☆ Is airline elite status losing its luster?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIs airline elite status losing its luster? Eric Rosen of The Points Guy discusses the changing demand for airline loyalty programs. Hosted by Brian Sullivan, “Last Call” is a fast-paced, entertaining business show that explores the intersection of money, culture and policy. Tune in Monday through Friday at 7 p.m. ET on CNBC.

Persons: Eric Rosen, Guy, Brian Sullivan, “ Organizations: CNBC

☆ On ‘The Blog Era,’ Resurrecting Rap Media History
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Reggie Ugwu | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

In all, the Rosenthals conducted more than 150 interviews spanning more than 500 hours of raw tape. In a recent video interview, Jeff, 38, and Eric, 42, discussed corralling their subjects, memorializing digital culture and what caused the blog era’s demise. JEFF ROSENTHAL We’d been doing this weekly interview podcast, “A Waste of Time,” for five years, but when the pandemic happened we stopped pretty much immediately. It didn’t really make sense to have people coming over to our apartment to record. We think all of these places deserve monuments, so we wanted to make sure they were remembered in the right way.

☆ 'It's not people shoplifting': Why retail is focused on organized crime
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

watch nowIt's been hard to get an exact read on the rise in retail theft. But this quarter's batch of retail earnings have brought the theft issue to the forefront again. Target said organized retail crime will reach $500 million more in stolen and lost merchandise this year compared with a year ago. The National Retail Federation says organized retail crime is the main reason for retail "shrink" — a mismatch between actual inventory and what is on the books — which reached $94.5 billion in 2021, an increase of almost $4 billion year over year. But shoplifting is a big part of organized crime.

☆ The clock is ticking for companies to speak clearly like Musk about China's Taiwan policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Elon Musk spoke this week on a topic few CEOs want to weigh in on publicly: China's intentions to ultimately integrate Taiwan as part of the People's Republic of China. "The official policy of China is that Taiwan should be integrated. And he added, "the situation is actually a lot worse for a lot of other companies than Tesla. "I don't think it's imminent but I do think companies should heed what he [Musk] says." The U.S. government policy remains to not take an official position on Taiwan as an independent and sovereign state.

☆ EV big rigs already make sense for half of the $4 trillion freight truck market, says Einride CEO
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Swedish EV trucking startup Einride has been able to so far go toe-to-toe with Tesla and its Semi in attracting top corporate clients. "In the $4 trillion freight mobility space, between 40%-50% should be electric driven by the business case today," Falck said on CNBC's "Worldwide Exchange" in an interview on Thursday after his company ranked No. "In the near-term, of course, the business case for diesel becomes slightly better," Falck said in the April interview. In freight, unlike the consumer market, "it's not about range, it's about how to secure the business case," he said. Swedish electric vehicle maker Einride will supply two of its heavy-duty trucks to PepsiCo as part of an expansion into the U.K. Einride

☆ Early MIT research shows 'Industrial Revolution-level large' leap for workers using ChatGPT, generative AI
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

He did say the time-saving component of the tech is among the things that struck him. I mean, the amount of time it could save you, if you were doing all kinds of things, is unbelievable," Buffett said. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman told CNBC's Julia Boorstin in an interview after being named the No. 1 company on the 2023 CNBC Disruptor list this year that the legal profession is a good example. "That is a pattern we're seeing again and again in many industries, and I'm super excited about it," Altman said.

☆ The driver-optional EV tractor at center of agtech boom right next to Silicon Valley
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Tesla's market cap is roughly $500 billion, and that's after a roughly 50% haircut since it topped $1 trillion in 2021. Monarch Tractor, which recently debuted another key electric vehicle born in the state of California — a driver-optional, all-electric tractor — valued by investors in the private market at $271 million. Farmers are struggling with high labor costs and their diesel engine carbon footprint, while corporations are facing new sustainability costs. These are problems that Monarch Tractor can solve in combination. "It's more efficient on the labor side but decreases the emissions and can power all the other equipment on the farm," Penmetsa said.

☆ Shopify's president on why he prefers paying micro-influencers to grow his own side hustle
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-07 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

But Finklestein also had another side business on his mind last week in an interview that had been pre-taped for CNBC's Small Business Playbook event, the loose-leaf tea side hustle, Firebelly Tea, that he co-founded as an independent entrepreneur. Finkelstein said it will be cheaper and also likely a more effective way to grow a new business. The creator economy is changing the way business success is generated, Finkelstein said, with the old "Field of Dreams" model — "If you build, it, they will come" — no longer enough. But that does not mean every small business owner with a great product should be chasing MrBeast or Emma Chamberlain for product endorsements. He cited the TikTok hashtag "TikTok Made Me Buy It" which has 50 billion impressions.

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Persons: —, you'd, you'll, you've, Read, Chase, I've, El Al, Uber, Wiley, Julie Mehretu, Peacock, Uber Cash, Eric Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Chase, Target, Walmart, Sapphire, FDIC, Chase Sapphire, TSA, United, United Club, ℠, American Airlines, AAA, Express, American Express, Hilton, Marriott, Saks, Entertainment, Disney, ESPN, The New York Times, Street, Global, Saks Fifth, Shipping, Mastercard Locations: Israel, New York, Miami, Hulu, Ventura , California

☆ Problems are mounting in the economy, big companies say, and another Fed rate hike may be one too many
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

While that's good for them, it also means "we're definitely moving towards a slowdown," one CFO said. "They are trying to fight a problem but there's evidence around the U.S. that says the economy is slowing. One concern voiced by CFOs is that the top end of the consumer market has been masking deeper problems in the economy, with companies tracking a rise in credit delinquencies, and that is now starting to spread. But inside major corporations, executives say they see signs of mounting trouble for the economy and as another interest rate hike looms, it may be time for the Fed to stop. While traders are betting on rate cuts before year-end, the CNBC Fed Survey shows a belief from economists and money managers that the Fed will hold rates higher for eight months.

The June hike is now off the table completely, and traders now see a 15% chance of the Fed not raising at all this week or in June. This is significant for the June 14 policy decision because the Fed also releases its new Summary of Economic Projections that day. The deposit flight may have stopped but Fed officials will be acutely aware of the negative feedback loop on the economy, given the deep-rooted linkages between small banks and businesses. The March survey of small businesses by the National Federation of Independent Business showed multiple signs of weakness, and even more attention than usual will fall on the next Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey. Will the Fed be raising rates on June 14 if this is still a live issue?

☆ Here's why former Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren would veto a 25 basis point hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHere's why former Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren would veto a 25 basis point hikeEric Rosengren, former Boston Fed president and visiting MIT scholar, joins 'Squawk Box' to preview the Fed's two-day policy meeting, and explains why he would veto a 25 basis point hike.

☆ $70 billion Los Angeles retirement plan says higher rates may 'change everything' and portfolio moves are coming
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

A year into the most significant period of Federal Reserve rate hikes in decades, you might think investors had already cemented their investment portfolio strategies for a higher interest rate world. According to LACERA's 2022 annual report, its investments were split between roughly $24 billion in public equities, $19 billion in bonds, $13 billion in private equity, $6 billion in real estate, $4 billion in hedge funds and $1 billion in real assets. Last year was the first in the prior three fiscal years that the pension fund's investment portfolio lost money. By contrast, investment returns of 25.2% in 2021 were far ahead of the 7% percent, which LACERA attributed to the strong performance from global equity and private equity assets. A shift to more fixed income among top investors will flow through to the "whole economy," Grabel said.

☆ Tax refunds are getting smaller, and fit into the picture of a slowing economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

But as pandemic-related tailwinds run their course, another example becoming a thing of the recent past is bigger than typical tax refunds. "Earlier in the quarter, we were seeing taxes, your tax refunds higher year-over-year, during the last probably five or six weeks we've seen that decline. As pandemic-era benefits and tax credit wane, the tax refund data factors into the broader economic picture and the consumer as a source of strength. watch nowAll spending, not just retail spending, will be impacted by lower tax refunds, and that will continue into next quarter. The smaller tax refunds should not be a surprise to businesses — the data has been mounting over the past four to six weeks.

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☆ If it's the start of a new bull market, CFOs aren't buying it
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Even fewer CFOs this quarter rate the chances of a new high in the Dow (under 15%) as being more likely than a fall back below 30,000 (57%) of CFOs. There was elevated uncertainty within this C-suite group versus the prior quarterly survey, with nearly one-third saying they don't have conviction about the next trend in stocks. In the previous survey, CFOs were evenly split — roughly 40% in each camp — on whether the recession would begin during the first half or second half of this year. More CFOs believe inflation has peaked – that finding has moved higher across three consecutive quarterly surveys, from under 50% to roughly 75% now. More than half of CFOs predict that inflation will not return to 2% until 2025.

☆ The next big thing in Big Tech career path is an AI-based 'bilingual' job skillset
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-02 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Microsoft unveiled new versions of its Bing internet-search engine and Edge browser powered by the newest technology from ChatGPT maker OpenAI. But the biggest one of all may be next, he says, through the combination of artificial intelligence and branches of science involved in medicine. But the opportunity won't translate into achievement without a new form of collaboration between the classic big tech talent and the medical field. One of her portfolio companies, Insitro, was founded by Stanford AI researcher Daphne Koller (Koller co-founder edtech company Coursera). "There is lots of exciting big talent opportunities coming from big tech and big cap pharma," she said.

☆ Real estate leader on NY Fed board warns on commercial real estate risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The real-estate sector has also been hard hit by Fed rate rises and commercial real estate has also been hobbled by the shift away from in-office work during the pandemic. Rechler serves as what’s called a Class B director on the 12-person panel of private citizens who oversee the New York Fed. Each of the quasi-private regional Fed banks are also operated under the oversight of the Fed’s Board of Governors in Washington, which is explicitly part of the government. The boards overseeing each of the regional Fed banks are made up of a mix of bankers, business and non-profit leaders. Their most visible role is helping regional Fed banks find new presidents, although bankers who serve as directors are by law not part of this process.

☆ New York Fed board member warns of commercial real-estate risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

☆ The inflation factor that has the Fed taking risks with a banking sector on edge
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The bottom line is that the Fed will need more evidence to be convinced that the banking sector issues alone can do the central bank's disinflationary work for it. "Labor market data came in stronger than expected," Powell said. "That's 56% percent of the index and the story is pretty much same ... the data we got pointed to stronger inflation," he said. Of course, all that could change, and in attempting to balance market concerns about the banking sector with inflation, Powell noted that the Fed does expect tighter lending standards to slow the economy. The Fed chair pointed to the "fair amount of research" on tighter credit standards, but added it is too soon to know how this banking sector shift will influence economic growth.

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☆ Former Boston Fed president: I'm concerned we haven't seen all problems from higher rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFormer Boston Fed president: I'm concerned we haven't seen all problems from higher ratesEric Rosengren, former Boston Fed president and visiting MIT scholar, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss what Rosengren thinks the Fed will do and what the Fed should do, the difference between a 25 bps rate hike and a 50 bps rate hike and more.

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Persons: Read Organizations: U.S . Bank

☆ Fed rate hike campaign in question as bank stocks swoon
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Lindsay Dunsmuir | Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Financial markets now expect interest-rate cuts as soon as May or June, with the Fed policy rate seen ending the year a full percentage point lower than it is now. Trader bets and actual Fed policy decisions often diverge, and analysts caution against taking the market view as gospel. Interest rates should pause until the degree of demand destruction can be evaluated.”WILD SWINGSExpectations for the U.S. central bank’s next move have swung wildly in recent days. Now, with the banking crisis seemingly rekindled and banking stocks again under pressure, traders are looking for one more Fed rate hike if that, and then a string of interest-rate reductions, with the rate ending this year in a 3.5%-3.75% range. “It’s conceivable that we’ve seen the peak in market interest rates this cycle,” said John Lynch, chief investment officer for Comerica Wealth Management.

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