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☆ Erdogan links Sweden's NATO membership to Turkey's EU accession
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Turkey's bid to join the EU has been frozen for years after membership talks were launched in 2005 under Erdogan's first term as prime minister. In a surprise change of tack, Erdogan on Monday linked Ankara's approval of Sweden's NATO bid to Turkey finally joining the EU. Sweden and Finland applied for NATO membership last year, abandoning policies of military non-alignment that had lasted through the decades of the Cold War in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. While Finland's NATO membership was green-lighted in April, Turkey and Hungary have yet to clear Sweden's bid. Erdogan also said that an end to the war between Ukraine and Russia would ease Kyiv's NATO membership process.

Persons: Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's, Erdogan's, Erdogan, Huseyin Hayatsever, Ali Kucukgocmen, Toby Chopra, Alex Richardson Organizations: Union, NATO, EU, European Union, Kurdistan Workers Party, Ece Toksabay, Thomson Locations: ISTANBUL, Ankara, Turkey, Vilnius, Sweden, Finland, Ukraine, Hungary, Stockholm, Madrid, United States, Russia

☆ Erdogan says Turkey could approve Sweden’s NATO membership if Europeans ‘open way’ to EU membership
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

VILNIUS, Lithuania (AP) — Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday introduced a new condition for approving Sweden's membership in NATO, calling on European countries to "open the way" for Turkey to join the European Union. It was the first time that Erdogan linked his country's ambition to join the EU with Sweden's efforts to become a NATO member. The White House readout of the Biden-Erdogan call did not mention the issue of Turkish membership in the EU. Sullivan didn't mention the EU membership issue. Previously non-aligned Sweden and Finland applied for NATO membership last year following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Persons: Tayyip Erdogan, Ulf Kristersson, Jens Stoltenberg, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Erdogan, Joe Biden, Stoltenberg, Dana Spinant, Jake Sullivan, Biden, Sullivan, Vilnius —, Paul Levin, Levin, Tobias Billström, Billström Organizations: Swedish, NATO, Monday, European Union, U.S, EU, Biden, Institute for Turkish Studies, Stockholm University, SVT, Kurdistan Workers ' Party Locations: Vilnius, VILNIUS, Lithuania, Turkey, Lithuania's, Sweden, Ankara, Istanbul, Finland, Swedish, NATO, Madrid, Cyprus, Stockholm, Sweden's, United States, Turkish, Kurdistan, Hungary, Ukraine

☆ Turkey isn't getting much use out of its Russian-made missile-defense system, but that's not why Erdogan is keeping it around
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-09 | by ( Constantine Atlamazoglou | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

The first parts of a Russian S-400 system are unloaded at an airport near Ankara in July 2019. Turkey's S-400 lacks that integration, as it hasn't been connected to NATO's radar network because alliance members fear that doing so could expose other systems to Russian observation. That made Russia's S-400 seem like not only a valid alternative but a preferable option to the US-made Patriot missile-defense system. (The US withdrew Patriot batteries from Turkey in late 2015, adding to Turkish concerns and desire for another air-defense system.) After the initial signing, the deal went into limbo over reported political disagreements and Turkey never received the system.

Persons: hasn't, Turkey's, Recep Tayyip Erdogan's, Lisel, David E, Banks, Erdogan, UMIT TURHAN COSKUN, Washington, Jens Stoltenberg, Orhan Cicek, MURAT CETINMUHURDAR Organizations: Service, Ankara, Turkish, NATO, Turkish Defence Ministry, Johns Hopkins University, King's College, Getty, ISIS, Kurdish PKK, Patriot, US, NATO NATO, Anadolu Agency Locations: Russian, Turkey, Ankara, Wall, Silicon, Russia, Turkish, King's College London, Hintz, Istanbul, AFP, Erdogan's, Washington, Kurdish, East, Eurasia, Banks, TURKISH, Moscow, France, Italy, Franco, Italian

☆ Turkey's Erdogan to host Putin, hopes for Black Sea grain deal extension
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Can Sezer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

ISTANBUL, July 8 (Reuters) - Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday that he was pressing Russia to extend a Black Sea grain deal by at least three months and announced a visit by President Vladimir Putin in August. Erdogan said work was under way on extending the Black Sea grain deal beyond its expiration date of July 17 and for longer periods beyond that. The deal would be one of the most important issues on the agenda for his meeting with Putin in Turkey next month, he said. "Our hope is that it will be extended at least once every three months, not every two months. Russia, angry about aspects of the grain deal's implementation, has threatened not to allow its further extension beyond July 17.

Persons: Tayyip Erdogan, Vladimir Putin, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Zelenskiy's, Erdogan, Putin, Zelenskiy, Petr Fiala, Stringer, Dmitry Peskov, Ezgi Erkoyun, Oleksandr Kozhukhar, Orhan Coskun, Elaine Monaghan, Huseyin Hayatsever, Jonathan Spicer, Gareth Jones, Diane Craft Organizations: Ukraine, United Nations, Zelenskiy, REUTERS, NATO, Western, Thomson Locations: ISTANBUL, Russia, Turkey, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Ukraine, Czech, Prague, Crimean Tatars, Istanbul

☆ Turkey expects $10 billion in Gulf investments after upcoming Erdogan visit, sources say
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Orhan Coskun | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

ANKARA, July 7 (Reuters) - Turkey expects Gulf countries to make direct investments of about $10 billion initially in domestic assets as part of President Tayyip Erdogan's trip to the region in two weeks, according to two senior Turkish officials. Direct investments worth about $10 billion "should come within a short time and this is crucial," said one of the officials. "Expectations are high for the Gulf visit. Reuters reported after the visit that Turkey came away expecting direct investments soon. The official said the expected investments from Gulf states would "show confidence in the Turkish economy since it would be direct investments, which is extremely important."

Persons: Tayyip Erdogan's, Erdogan, Abu Dhabi, Cevdet Yilmaz, Mehmet Simsek, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, Yilmaz, Jonathan Spicer, Ros Russell Organizations: Turkish, United Arab Emirates, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ANKARA, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Riyadh, Doha, Abu, Ankara, UAE, Nahyan, Turkish

The rate hike came in the first policy meeting under new Central Bank Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan. The central bank's net reserves rose to $9.19 billion in the week to June 23, its biggest rise on record. Although the central bank's reserves have rebounded since mid-June, state banks are still selling dollars to meet demand from maturing lira deposit accounts known as KKM. Authorities were not seeking to support the lira and the central bank maintained its stance of not selling via state banks, the person added, requesting anonymity. "The committee evaluated that the current monetary policy framework is far from achieving the 5% inflation target, given the inflation outlook and upside risks," the central bank said.

Persons: Tayyip Erdogan, Central Bank Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erkan, Erdogan, Nevzat Devranoglu, Jonathan Spicer, Daren Butler, Christina Fincher Organizations: Central Bank Governor, Reuters, Authorities, stoke, Thomson Locations: Turkey, ANKARA

☆ Global markets in H1: Banks vs the machines
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Linking it all has been the relentless rise in interest rates, which was exactly what battered markets in 2022. But just that this time has been different due to an unshakeable view that the end of the cycle is near. A 12%, or $6 trillion, rally in value of world stocks (.MIWD00000PUS), (.FTAWORLDSR) although it has been ominously top heavy. Thanks largely to ChatGPT, the AI boom has seen the 'Big Tech' giants enjoy a combined surge of 70%. There have also been around a total of 90 interest rate hikes this year by central banks globally versus just 17 cuts.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Lehman, Trevor Greetham, Gold, Viktor Szabo, Tayyip Erdogan's, haven't, bitcoin, Binance, Milla Savova, Dhara Ranasinghe, Tom Wilson, Rashmi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nikkei, LONDON, Big Tech, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Netflix, Meta, Nvidia, Royal London Asset Management, Japan's Nikkei, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan's, Silicon Valley Bank, behemoth, UBS, Treasury, Wall, BlackRock, Commodities, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, El Salvador, Sri, Zambia, Ukraine, Pakistan, Argentina, Japan, Egypt, Nigeria, London

☆ Special Report: US, Swedish prosecutors study graft complaint naming son of Turkey's Erdogan
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( David Gauthier-Villars | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +16 min

The proposed plan was detailed in communications and business documents seen by Reuters, as well as by a person familiar with the matter. A screengrab shows information about the AL-100K dashboard breathalyzer on the website of Swedish company Dignita Systems. Reuters was unable to confirm independently whether President Erdogan and his son Bilal were aware of, or had involvement in Dignita's alleged kickback scheme. Ibn Haldun University was founded by Turgev, a charity organization President Erdogan helped create in the 1990s, when he was mayor of Istanbul. In 2016, Italian prosecutors conducted a money-laundering probe into Bilal Erdogan on suspicion he had brought cash into the country without declaring it.

Persons: Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Erdogan, Dignita, Bilal Erdogan, Anders Eriksson, Bilal, Dignita's, Scott Greytak, Ibn Haldun, Turgev, Erdogan's, Eriksson, Irfan Gunduz, Gunduz, Erdogan’s, " Eriksson, Bilal –, Bilal Erdogan –, – Dignita, Smart, Matthew Strausz, Anders, David Gauthier, Daniel Flynn Organizations: Reuters, Dignita Systems, Dignita's U.S, Turkish, U.S . Department of Justice, International U.S, DOJ, Smart, Apollo Global Management, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, NATO, Nordic, Swedish, Ibn Haldun University, Ibn, Dignita, Tugva, BMZ, Islamic, Smart Start, Thomson Locations: United States, Sweden, Swedish, U.S, Turkey, Washington, States, Texas, Ankara, Stockholm, Istanbul, Turkish, Tugva, Islamic State, Syria, Russia, American, Gunduz

☆ Fear among Turkey's LGBT community after hostile election campaign
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-24 | by ( Burcu Karakas | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The discrimination faced by the LGBT community has convinced the couple to plan to leave Turkey, he said. "Turkey has never been the perfect country for the LGBT community but now people feel insecure," Seren said. Matthew Warchus, the British director of "Pride", said he felt solidarity with Turkey's LGBT community. My message to those opposed to it being viewed is simply 'There is nothing to fear except fear itself'". Yilmaz, the LGBT rights advocate, said they had never been targeted like this before.

Persons: Cuneyt Yilmaz, Senkaya, Erdogan, Tayyip Erdogan, pollsters, Bekir, Rumeysa Kadak, Mahmut Seren, Seren, cordoning, Cuneyt, Yilmaz, Matthew Warchus, Davut Gul, Melih, Burcu Karakas, Jonathan Spicer, Alison Williams Organizations: Reuters, REUTERS, AK, Aesthetics Culture Art Research Foundation, Istanbul Pride, Twitter, UniKuir, New Welfare Party, European Union, Yilmaz, Thomson Locations: Istanbul, Turkey, ISTANBUL, Britain, British, Izmir, European

☆ Turkey's lira hits fresh record lows after rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

ISTANBUL, June 23 (Reuters) - The Turkish lira weakened as much as 2.8% to a fresh record low early on Friday, extending losses as the central bank's large rate hike a day earlier, reversing President Tayyip Erdogan's policy, fell short of market expectations. The lira last traded at 25.2015, some 1.3% weaker than Thursday's close. At its weakest point of 25.59 it was nearly 27% weaker against the U.S. currency this year. The move marked a change in course after years of monetary easing in which the one-week repo rate (TRINT=ECI) had been cut to 8.5% from 19% in 2021 in an unorthodox policy pursued despite soaring inflation. Reporting by Can Sezer; Editing by Daren ButlerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Tayyip Erdogan's, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erdogan, Erkan, Daren Butler Organizations: Thomson Locations: ISTANBUL, Turkey's

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Rate hikes and red lights
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. But May's inflation reading for the U.K. was a scorcher: Inflation last month remained unchanged from April, while core inflation actually rose from 6.8% to 7.1% year over year. Turkey's welcome hikeTurkey's central bank — under its new governor Hafize Gaye Erkan — doubled the country's interest rate from 8.5% to 15%. Yet market strategists from UBS and JPMorgan Chase and are already warning that the stock market may be overvalued.

Persons: BOE's, BOE, Hafize Gaye Erkan —, Recep Tayyip Erdogan's, Jerome Powell, Martin Gruenberg, Ocado, JPMorgan Chase Organizations: CNBC, of England, Federal, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, UBS, JPMorgan Locations: —

☆ Turkish lira sinks to fresh lows following the central bank's interest rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Turkey's Taksim Square, with the figure of Kemal Ataturk, the first president, and the Turkish flag in the background. The Turkish lira sank to new record lows after Turkey's central bank raised the country's benchmark interest rate by 650 basis points in a dramatic monetary policy reversal. The central bank lifted its key interest rate by almost double, from 8.5% to 15% Thursday, marking the country's first hike since March 2021. The lira — which has been extending its plunge since President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's reelection — was last trading at 24.97 against the greenback. Newly appointed Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan hinted at more hikes until the inflation situation in the country improves.

Persons: Turkey's, Kemal Ataturk, Recep Tayyip Erdogan's, —, Steve Hanke, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erkan Organizations: Turkish, Johns Hopkins University

The central bank said inflation will come under further pressure. Erdogan said last week he approved the steps Simsek would take with the central bank, suggesting he had given the green light to rate hikes. The central bank's key rate remains below deposit rates that reach up to 40% and real rates are still deeply negative. The central bank's net reserves fell to a record low of negative $5.7 billion last month. Authorities hope foreign investors and hard currency will return after a years-long exodus, potentially reducing the central bank's need to intervene to keep the lira stable.

Persons: Tayyip Erdogan's, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erkan, Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Piotr Matys, Ezgi Erkoyun, Ali Kucukgocmen, Christina Fincher, Daren Butler Organizations: Reuters Graphics, Wall Street, InTouch, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ISTANBUL, Ankara

☆ Turkish central bank to hike rates sharply in post-election pivot
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Ali Kucukgocmen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But the level remains uncertain as the central bank has not given any signals as to its next steps, including the size or pace of potential hikes. Some economists have expressed doubt about Erdogan's commitment to abandoning his unorthodox policy of low rates, which led the central bank to slash its policy rate from 19% in 2021 to 8.5% currently. The median estimate for the policy rate at end-2023 was 30%, with forecasts ranging from 18% to 35%. He named Naci Agbal as central bank governor in Nov. 2020 but, after some sharp rate hikes, replaced him less than five months later. The central bank is scheduled to announce its rate decision at 1100 GMT on Thursday.

Persons: Murad Sezer, Tayyip Erdogan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Malek Drimal, Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Moody's, Naci, Simsek, Ali Kucukgocmen, Marc Jones, Jonathan Spicer, Daren Butler, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, Societe Generale, stoke, Thomson Locations: Istanbul, Turkey, ISTANBUL

His case on Thursday was adjourned to Nov. 30 and the trial is set to hang over the opposition as it tries to regroup and rally disheartened voters ahead of local elections in March. At the same time, calls have grown louder for the opposition's defeated presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu to resign as chairman of Imamoglu's Republican People's Party (CHP). Tanju Tosun, political science professor at Ege University, said the CHP's internal politics could overshadow its preparations for next year's local elections. "If the internal rifts within the CHP continues until local elections, candidates from the ruling AK Party (AKP) could defeat opposition candidates in many cities," he said. "YSP may field candidates (in Istanbul and Ankara)," Meral Danis Bestas, a senior YSP official, said.

Persons: Imamoglu, Tayyip Erdogan, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, Erdogan, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Kilicdaroglu, Tanju Tosun, Kemal Polat, Polat, We've, Ali Kucukgocmen, Huseyin Hayatsever, Daren Butler, Angus MacSwan Organizations: Istanbul Mayor, opposition's, Republican People's Party, Ege University, CHP, AK Party, Council of State, IYI Party, IYI, Left, Thomson Locations: Istanbul, ISTANBUL, Beylikduzu, Balikesir, Denizli, Kurdish, Ankara

☆ Erdogan sees swift steps from new finance minister but says his own monetary views unchanged
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"Some of our friends should not be mistaken, such as (asking) 'Is our president going for a serious change in interest rate policies?'" "But upon the thinking of our treasury and finance minister, we have accepted that he will take steps swiftly, comfortably with the central bank," Erdogan said. Analysts at leading investment banks now expect Turkey's central bank to start ramping up rates at its monetary policy committee meeting on June 22. Erdogan said he told the new central bank governor about his expectations. "God willing, neither our finance minister nor our central bank governor will embarrass us and I think we will hopefully obtain positive results."

Persons: Erdogan, Tayyip Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Simsek, Orhan Coskun, Nevzat Devranoglu, Huseyin Hayatsever, Ali Kucukgocmen, Daren Butler, Peter Graff Organizations: stoke, Authorities, Wall Street, Toksabay, Thomson Locations: ANKARA, Azerbaijan, Turkish, Ankara

"It is clear that to ensure economic confidence, legal consistency is a must," one of the senior officials said. Deniz Ozen, lawyer for the Turkish Workers' Party MP, said authorities are violating Turkish law by keeping him in jail. Emma Sinclair-Webb, Turkey director of Human Rights Watch, said a discredited justice system is a matter of concern especially for European investors. Reinforcing the apparent U-turn, Erdogan on Friday named Hafize Gaye Erkan as central bank governor, paving the way for interest rate hikes. "No matter the economic reforms, the investment will not significantly ramp up," he said.

Persons: Erdogan, Tayyip Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Simsek, Mehmet Gun, Orhan Turan, Turkey's, Osman, Deniz Ozen, Emma Sinclair, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Howard Eissenstat, Burcu Karakas, Jonathan Spicer, Catherine Evans Organizations: Better Justice Association, Istanbul Convention, Gazette, Bank, AK Party, of Human, Human Rights, Turkish Workers ' Party, Finance, St, Lawrence University, Thomson Locations: ISTANBUL, Turkey, Istanbul, Osman Kavala, Kavala, Webb

☆ Who is Hafize Gaye Erkan, Turkey's first female central bank chief?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Karin Strohecker | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, June 9 (Reuters) - Turkey's new central bank governor Hafize Gaye Erkan faces the tough task of alleviating a bruising cost-of-living crisis while hoping to restore investor confidence at home and abroad after years of unorthodox policymaking. Appointed on Friday, the 43-year old is the first woman at the helm of the country's central bank, taking over from Sahap Kavcioglu, who spearheaded President Tayyip Erdogan's rate-cutting drive against a backdrop of soaring inflation. Her new role makes her one of only around a dozen women currently serving as central bank governors around the world, including the likes of ECB President Christine Lagarde, Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina and Serbia's Jorgovanka Tabakovic. Having spent all of her professional life outside Turkey, Erkan has no formal central banking experience, making her leanings for monetary policy unclear. Kathryn Wylde, president and CEO of Partnership for New York City, a nonprofit organization where Erkan once served as a board director, says Erkan was seen as "tough, smart, and effective."

Persons: Hafize Gaye Erkan, Sahap Kavcioglu, Tayyip Erdogan's, Christine Lagarde, Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, Erkan, Goldman Sachs, Mark Carney, Mario Draghi, William Dudley, Goldman, Marsh McLennan, Kathryn Wylde, Wylde, Karin Strohecker, Jonathan Spicer, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Russian Central Bank Governor, Bogazici University, Harvard Business School's, Management, Research, Financial Engineering, Princeton University, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, New York Fed, First Republic Bank, Banking, Finance, New, Thomson Locations: Sahap, Istanbul, Turkey, New York City

☆ Asia shares buoyed by Fed pause bets; dollar heavy
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Japanese and Australian bond yields followed those on U.S. Treasuries lower, and the dollar remained on the defensive early in the Asian session. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares (.MIAP00000PUS) added 0.6%, and at one point touched its strongest level since Feb. 16. Traders now lay 1-in-4 odds for the Fed to raise rates by a quarter point on June 14, versus 75% probability of a pause. "I wouldn't go all in and say we're going to get a rate hike, but I think we should be at least 50% priced," said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG Markets in Sydney. The dollar added 0.15% to 139.135 yen , after earlier slipping to a one-week low of 138.765.

Persons: Hong, Tony Sycamore, Jerome, Powell's, Powell, undertightening, Tayyip Erdogan's, WTI fututes, Kevin Buckland, Stephen Coates Organizations: Federal Reserve, Japan's Nikkei, Nasdaq, Fed, Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of Australia, IG Markets, New, U.S, West Texas, Brent, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Asia, Pacific, Sydney, Tokyo, New York, U.S, United States, Iran

The currency later recouped some of its losses, standing at 23.33 against the dollar by 0542 GMT, after touching a record low of 23.39 overnight during illiquid trading hours. "There is no air of panic in the markets as in previous times when there were such high losses. The central bank's net forex reserves hit an all-time low of negative $4.4 billion last month as demand surged through the elections. Investors are now awaiting the appointment of a new central bank governor to succeed Sahap Kavcioglu, who has spearheaded Erdogan's rate-slashing drive since 2021. Erdogan is considering appointing Hafize Gaye Erkan, a U.S.-based senior finance executive, as central bank governor, Reuters reported on Monday.

Persons: Tayyip Erdogan's, Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Simsek, Erik Meyersson, SEB, Meyersson, Sahap Kavcioglu, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Ali Kucukgocmen, Jonathan Spicer, Gareth Jones Organizations: Lira, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ISTANBUL, Ankara, U.S

The central bank's first female governor, Erkan is also its fifth chief in four years, underlining the challenge she may face delivering a lasting policy turnaround after Erdogan has all but stamped out the bank's independence in recent years. Analysts now expect Turkey's central bank to hike interest rates to between 20% and 25% from 8.5% as soon as this month. ORTHODOX FINANCE MINISTERErdogan, a self-proclaimed "enemy" of interest rates, has pressed the central bank to deliver stimulus in recent years and has been quick to replace its governor. The central bank slashed its policy rate to 8.5% from 19% in 2021, leaving real rates deeply negative and the lira largely managed by dozens of regulations covering credit and foreign exchange. But the last central bank governor to raise rates, Naci Agbal, was fired in 2021 after less than five months on the job.

Persons: Tayyip Erdogan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Goldman Sachs, Erdogan's, Erdogan, Kavcioglu, Selva Demiralp, Mehmet Simsek, Simsek, Erkan, Naci Agbal, Marsh, Kathryn Wylde, Wylde, Ali Kucukgocment, Jonathan Spicer, Daren Butler, Cynthia Osterman, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Lira, First Republic Bank, Official Gazette, Koc University, U.S . Federal Reserve, Princeton University, First, JPMorgan, Analysts, FINANCE, Greystone, Partnership, New, Thomson Locations: ISTANBUL, United States, unorthodoxy, Erkan, U.S, New York City

☆ TRYing times: The slide and fall of the Turkish lira
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The central bank is however widely expected to get a new head in the coming days. Turkey's economy is no stranger to boom-and-bust cycles, oscillating between double-digit growth and contraction rates in recent years. 3/INFLATION PALPITATIONSA tumbling lira will fan fears over a fresh spike in inflation in the country which only last year saw it top 80%. "It's just so inevitable," Abrdn's head of local currency emerging market debt, Kieren Curtis, said referring to the lira's slump this week. He did add however that the compensation would be paid to depositors in lira rather than dollars or euros and that bill would be split between the Treasury and Central Bank.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Ulrich Leuchtmann, Hasnain Malik, Erdogan, Tellimer's Malik, Kieren Curtis, Frank Gill, Tayyip Erdogan's, Karin Strohecker, David Evans Organizations: Wall, JPMorgan, FX, Reuters Graphics Reuters, International Monetary Fund, P Global, Treasury, Central Bank, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ankara, Turkey, Commerzbank, Frankfurt, Tellimer

☆ World shares muted, lira plunges to record low
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Meanwhile, Turkey's lira plunged to a record low against the greenback as authorities appeared to loosen stabilising measures after the government signalled a pivot to more orthodox policies. Spanish stocks (.IBEX) outperformed after shares in the world's biggest fast fashion company Inditex (ITX.MC) jumped almost 7% following first quarter results. That left the MSCI's broadest index of world shares (.MIWD00000PUS) up just under 0.1% but close to its highest level in 13 months reached on Monday. The dollar fell 0.1% against a basket of currencies, while the Turkish lira weakened over 7% to a record low of 23.17 per dollar, its biggest one-day sell-off since the 2021 crash. Bitcoin was trading at about $26,900, consolidating after a sharp rebound on Tuesday from as low as $25,350.

Persons: Ben Laidler, Ipek Ozkardeskaya, eToro's Laidler, Laidler, Solana, Samuel Indyk, Kevin Buckland, Xie Yu, Robert Birsel, Louise Heavens Organizations: REUTERS, Staff LONDON, U.S, Federal Reserve, greenback, Nikkei, Fed, Wall, ICE, Treasury, Swissquote Bank, Data, Saudi, Brent, Texas, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, U.S, London, Turkish, China, Cardano, Polygon

Markets are also waiting for the appointment of a new central bank governor to replace Sahap Kavcioglu, who spearheaded rate cuts under Erdogan's unorthodox policies. "I think we are seeing the impact of Simsek pushing (the Turkish central bank) for rational policy." Bankers say the lira's continued gradual depreciation will lead to improved market conditions and halt a decline in central bank reserves. But it sparked a record lira crisis in December of 2021 and sent inflation to a 24-year high above 85% last year. Erdogan is considering appointing Hafize Gaye Erkan, a senior finance executive in the United States, as central bank governor, Reuters reported on Monday.

Persons: Tayyip Erdogan, Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Simsek, Sahap Kavcioglu, Tim Ash, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erkan, Paul McNamara, Huseyin Hayatsever, Jonathan Spicer, Ali Kucukgocmen, Tom Hogue, Christina Fincher Organizations: BlueBay Asset Management, Bankers, Reuters, Simsek, GAM, Thomson Locations: ANKARA, Turkish, United States, Ankara, Turkey, Jorgelina, Rosario, London

☆ Dollar edges up as markets weigh chances of Fed rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Iain Withers | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Markets now put the probability of a 25 basis point hike at the meeting on June 13-14 at 29.1%, down from 2-in-3 odds a week earlier. U.S. services data due later on Monday could give further clues, though analysts said core inflation data due next week was more likely to move the needle. "...the lack of other key inputs before next week's CPI [inflation data] could keep the dollar capped," currency analysts at ING said in a note. The Australian dollar fell 0.2% to $0.65905, ahead of a decision by the central bank on Tuesday on whether to raise rates that analysts said was on a knife-edge. The fall came despite the appointment of Mehmet Simsek as Turkey's finance minister, who won markets' confidence during previous stints in government between 2009 and 2018.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Tayyip Erdogan's, Mehmet Simsek, Iain Withers, Kevin Buckland, William Maclean, Jason Neely Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, CPI, ING, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, Turkish, Tokyo

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