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☆ Investors are betting that rate cuts are coming early next year. Here's what market experts are urging you do right now to cash in when rates do fall.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

10-year Treasury yields are surging as the economy stays hot. For the first time since 2007, 10-year yields rose above 4.3% on Thursday after seeing a 31% surge since April. If or when that eventually happens, Treasury yields are likely to follow, presenting those who hold the assets with an opportunity. Bond yields fall when demand for the assets rise, pushing up their price. David Kelly, the chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, sees 10-year rates averaging 3.7% in the years ahead.

Persons: Gautam Khanna, Jason Draho, Lawrence Gillium, Craig Brothers, Brothers, Leslie Falconio, David Kelly, Kelly Organizations: Wall, Insight Investment, UBS Global Wealth, LPL, Bel Air Investment Advisors, Morgan Asset Management, Monopoly, Treasury Locations: Treasurys

☆ Why has the stock market been weak lately? It's not mysterious
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

.SPX 1M mountain S & P 500 1-month Since then, it's been one excuse after another. Everything Tuesday was down about 1.0-1.25% midday, including the equal-weight S & P 500 (RSP) the market-cap weighted S & P 500, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and the small-cap Russell 2000, but most ended down a fraction of a percent. At nearly 5% yield, money market funds are still sucking in money, even with the S & P 500 up 18% this year. I mentioned Monday that money market inflows reaccelerated last week: $21 billion worth of inflows were added, according to Goldman Sachs. "The pace of money market flows reflects a larger apathy towards stock," Todd Sohn from Strategas told clients.

Persons: it's, Moody's, Mike O'Rourke, Dow Jones, Sellers, Harry Whitton, Russell, Goldman Sachs, Todd Sohn, Strategas, David Kelly Organizations: Bank of Japan, Jones Trading, Regional Banking, Nasdaq, Chief Global, Morgan Asset Management Locations: Japan, China, U.S

☆ JPMorgan's David Kelly: Keep an eye on overpriced valuations, as they will be the first to fall off
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJPMorgan's David Kelly: Keep an eye on overpriced valuations, as they will be the first to fall offDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the potential for a soft landing, concerns about overpriced valuations, and opportunities in high-quality fixed income markets

Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly, David Kelly Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management

☆ The economy feels worse than it actually is because people were spoiled by the snap-back recovery after the pandemic crash
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Americans feel bad about the economy, even though data shows a booming labor market. The recovery from the pandemic recession reset everyone's expectations about what a good economy looks like. Americans are feeling bad about the economy, and some of that is likely due to inflation eating at their budgets. Consumer confidence is still low, and, as JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist David Kelly writes, Americans feel an "unreasonable level of gloom." In short, the things that used to make Americans feel good or bad about the economy aren't as consequential anymore.

Persons: Aaron Terrazas, Labor Julie Su, that's, David Kelly, Kelly, Terrazas, —, would've Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor, Pew Research Center, JPMorgan Asset Management, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, America

☆ I strongly believe this is not an inflationary economy, says JPMorgan's David Kelly
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailI strongly believe this is not an inflationary economy, says JPMorgan's David KellyDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss June's job report, Fed's inflation fight, latest market trends, and more.

Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly David Kelly Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management

☆ The odds of a significant recession are ‘going down’ right now, says JPMorgan’s David Kelly
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe odds of a significant recession are ‘going down’ right now, says JPMorgan’s David KellyDavid Kelly, JP Morgan Asset Management chief global strategist, and Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America Securities, join ‘Squawk on the Street’ to discuss what the latest strong job reports suggest, the odds of a recession, and more.

Persons: JPMorgan’s David Kelly David Kelly, Savita Subramanian, ‘ Squawk Organizations: Morgan Asset Management, Bank of America Securities

☆ Premarket stocks: Wall Street is strangely calm about the debt ceiling. That could change this month
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —Dire warnings about the economic chaos and catastrophe that will ensue if the US debt ceiling isn’t lifted soon abound. The debt ceiling crisis of 2011 caused Standard and Poor’s to downgrade US debt for the first time in history. Schwenkler says to expect “a lot more volatility” if debt ceiling issues don’t appear resolved by the last week of the month. By contrast, recovery from a debt-default crisis would likely start the day Congress, belatedly, suspended the debt ceiling,” he added. “A misstep over the debt ceiling would subject businesses and consumers to an economic shockwave,” he added.

☆ How a shockingly resilient jobs market saved the US from a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Several measures from Friday's jobs report show the labor market is stronger than it's been in decades. But Terrazas pointed to potential concerns in the labor market and for interest rates. "If it's the former, it's just a matter of time before gravity catches up with the labor market," Terrazas said. Overall though, the different robust labor market data suggests the US could maybe avoid a recession as has been the case so far in 2023. Despite potential risks in the job market, Pollak believes there's a possibility that the US continues to avoid a recession.

☆ JPMorgan's David Kelly expects the Fed to change its forward guidance
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJPMorgan's David Kelly expects the Fed to change its forward guidanceCiti's Kristen Bitterly, JPMorgan's David Kelly and Morgan Stanley's Jim Caron, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the Fed ahead of the imminent decision.

☆ The US economy slowed dramatically at the start of 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The advance estimate for GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows the US economy is slowing. US GDP grew at annualized rate of 1.1% in the first quarter of 2023. That's below the forecast of 2.0% and way below the 2.6% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2022. That's based on the advance estimate for gross domestic product (GDP). In short, the economy remains on the edge of a swamp – not in recession yet but close to one."

REUTERS/Brendan McDermidNEW YORK, April 20 (Reuters) - A debt ceiling fight is looming in the U.S. yet again, giving investors another worry for markets this year. Here is a Q&A about the implications for markets:WHAT IS THE DEBT CEILING? The debt ceiling is the maximum amount the U.S. government can borrow to meet its financial obligations. Outstanding government debt, nominal gross domestic product and federal limit to borrowWHEN WILL THE U.S. HIT THE DEBT CEILING? Some Treasury bills (T-bills) are featuring a premium in their yields that may be tied to an elevated default risk, according to some analysts.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with JP Morgan's David Kelly
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with JP Morgan's David KellyDavid Kelly, JP Morgan Asset Management chief global strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the Federal Reserves rate policy plan, the Chinese economy's influence on U.S. inflation, and investment opportunities in international stocks.

☆ Employee bargaining power is limited with wage growth below inflation, says JPM's David Kelly
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEmployee bargaining power is limited with wage growth below inflation, says JPM's David KellyDavid Kelly, JP Morgan Asset Management chief global strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the Federal Reserves rate policy plan, the Chinese economy's influence on U.S. inflation, and investment opportunities in international stocks.

☆ Canada's plugging its labor shortage with 1 million people moving to the country last year, while Biden is maintaining Trump-like policies that keep immigrants out
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Jason Lalljee | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

It's part of an effort to address the country's labor shortage, Canada's immigration minister said. The US could solve its labor shortage too, experts told Insider, but Biden would have to be bolder. President Joe Biden's current course of action could mean that the labor shortage in the US is never really solved. Biden is replacing Trump-like anti-immigration policies with his ownThat's a major reason why the persisting labor shortage will likely never resolve. It's in direct opposition to the kind of policy changes that Peri said the US needs to make to address the labor shortage.

☆ Premarket stocks: Five questions for the Federal Reserve as the banking crisis drags on
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

A policy rate announcement is expected on Wednesday along with new economic projections, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will face the press to answer questions. Is the Fed’s fight against inflation destabilizing the banking system? The US banking system is under a lot of pressure right now. Lagarde opted to portray that rate increase as a signal that the financial system remains strong. Yet, ironically, the banking mess is now helping tech companies and cryptocurrencies as investors flock out of the banking system in search of alternative safe spaces to store their cash.

☆ The stock market is going to be trading flat as long as risk-free assets offer much more yield
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Meanwhile, markets are still reeling from the SVB fiasco, but there's a simpler reason why the stock market is going to be trading flat for the foreseeable future. Banking turmoil aside, the stock market doesn't have much momentum as long as investors are getting much higher yields on risk-free assets. Even before Silicon Valley Bank crashed, investors were feeling the pain of a volatile stock market. What's your prediction for the stock market through the first half of this year? Zurich-listed shares of Credit Suisse are down more than 58% early Monday.

☆ 4 steps the Fed needs to take to calm markets after the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, and what investors should remember amid the chaos, according to JPMorgan's chief strategist
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The Fed needs to stop raising interest rates now, says David Kelly of JPMorgan Asset Management. Step one: don't hike interest rates any more. "You just pause on interest rates and you say that we're making good progress on inflation," he said. "What you need to do in the long run is have a very steady level of interest rates," he said. He explained that interest rates do a bad job controlling demand and end up creating bubbles and economic problems.

☆ US expected to report strong consumer price increases in February
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Economists said Tuesday's report remained important for policymakers despite the angst in financial markets. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) likely increased by 0.4% last month after accelerating 0.5% in January, according to a Reuters survey of economists. Food prices are expected to have risen moderately after climbing 0.5% in January. Gasoline prices likely increased, but overall energy prices probably eased slightly because of a decrease in the cost of energy services. With rents remaining hot, services less energy, probably recorded another month of strong price gains after rising 0.5% in January.

☆ Companies could lower grocery store prices if the US passed immigration reform, says a major food CEO: 'It's a crisis out here in terms of labor availability'
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Jason Lalljee | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Land O'Lakes CEO Beth Ford told Time that allowing more immigration would help ease costs in the stretched industry. One food CEO is pointing to an untapped pool of people who could help businesses ease their labor shortage and lower prices for Americans: immigrants. To get some immigration reform," Beth Ford, the head of Land O'Lakes, a massive supplier of dairy goods, told Time's John Simons. It's a crisis out here in terms of labor availability." Amid labor shortage problems, Ford said that it's important to keep in mind that the demand for food is only growing.

☆ Why the 2023 stock market rally may be over already
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN —So much for that big stock market comeback this year. At one point in mid-January, the average of 30 blue chips was up nearly 4% in 2023. It’s harder to justify more expensive valuations for the market in an environment where higher interest rates will likely eat into profits. He speculated that if inflation doesn’t cool off soon, the Fed may need to keep raising rates all the way up to 6%. “If there is a recession, profits will likely fall sharply.”Still, Kelly is cautiously optimistic that 2024 and beyond will be better years for earnings, and therefore stocks.

☆ The highest-paying college majors, top jobs in 2023 and who’s hiring right now
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Cindy Perman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

Tech jobs are still hotOnce again, if you just followed the headlines (layoffs at Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, etc.) Jobs in the sector ranked among the Best Jobs for 2023, according to job site Indeed.com: Full-stack developer Data engineer Cloud engineer Senior product manager Back-end developer Almost half, 44%, of the top 25 jobs on that list were tech jobs. "I'm sure there are plenty of unfilled positions for tech workers in financial services or state and local governments. Tech workers laid off by tech companies may end up there." *MINDBLOWN*), plus jobs where you're a top applicant and some jobs that you might have missed.

☆ Covid's 'legacy of weirdness': Layoffs spread, but some employers can't hire fast enough
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-20 | by ( Leslie Josephs | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A sign for hire is posted on the window of a Chipotle restaurant in New York, April 29, 2022. This points to a labor market that's still tight, particularly in service sectors that were hit hard earlier in the pandemic, such as restaurants and hotels. Consumer spending has remained robust and surprised some economists, despite headwinds such as higher interest rates and persistent inflation. "There's a difference between saying the labor market is tight and the labor market is strong," Kelly said. With interest rates rising and inflation staying elevated, consumers could pull back spending and spark job losses or reduce hiring needs in otherwise thriving sectors.

☆ The US economy needs immigrants. A rising share of both Democrats and Republicans don't want them.
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

But a growing share of both Democrats and Republicans wants less immigration. This sentiment could be in response to the rise of migrants at the southern border in recent years. But a rising share of both Democrats and Republicans want the country to reduce immigration. After plummeting during 2020 due to the pandemic, the US Border Patrol reported a record-high nearly 1.7 million encounters with migrants at the US-Mexico border in 2021. Last year, a new record was set with over 2 million encounters.

☆ Meet a woman who regrets quitting her job in July because the job search has gotten 'bleak'
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

According to Joblist's second quarter of 2022 report, 26% of "job seekers who quit their previous job" regret the move. Kristen is still hoping things will work out and that she will land a job soon, but is feeling some regrets. I wish I would've not quit my first job," Kristen said. "I wish so many different things would've fallen into place. But, at the end of the day, I can't wish things away."

☆ Markets may be taking the wrong read from January's shocking jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"The resounding strength of January employment report does not change our view of the labor market. Significant imbalances remain in the labor market due to too much excess demand and limited labor market slack," added Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America. That's because they see the jobs report gain of 517,000 as a potential impetus to push the Fed into more aggressive interest rate hikes. He thinks future months will show a slowing labor market that will force the Fed into halting its hikes. "From a data-dependency perspective, the strength of the labor market suggests there might be need to continue to raise interest rates."

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