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Americans are preparing to spend money this holiday season at a rate exceeding pre-pandemic levels. And yet, there are also some promising signs that consumers are ready to splurge on deals this holiday season. A new Deloitte survey shows that Americans are preparing to spend money this holiday season at a rate exceeding pre-pandemic levels. Deloitte also found that the people surveyed plan to spend $1,652 this holiday season, up 14% from last year and 10% from the pre-pandemic level of $1,496 in 2019. OCTAVIO JONES/Getty ImagesThe steeper discounts will mean that prices for many products will be cheaper this year compared to last year's holiday season, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Persons: , OCTAVIO JONES Organizations: Service, Deloitte, Black, Adobe, Wall Street
Goldman Sachs researchers are projecting oil prices to jump nearly 20% next year. AdvertisementAs the holiday season approaches, drivers are experiencing a welcome respite at gas stations, but those savings will likely go away in the new year. Last week, West Texas Intermediate crude, a benchmark for oil prices, dipped to approximately $73 per barrel, a significant 20% drop from its late September peak of $94. "The big surprise of 2023 is stronger than expected non-OPEC supply growth, which we think will slow heading into 2024," Struyven said. And what the US economy doesn't need in the near future is Americans tightening their budgets after their summer of fun and the holiday spending season.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , GasBuddy, Daan Struyven, CNBC's, Dado Ruvic, Struyven, David Kelly, We're, Kelly Organizations: Service, West, AAA, OPEC, Reuters, US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Biden, Strategic Petroleum Reserve Energy Department, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Morgan Asset Management Locations: West Texas, OPEC, Ukraine, Russia, Saudi Arabia
Nearly one-fourth of that was built through real estate equity. With less pressure from interest rates, they can take advantage of the current real estate market, too. They're also in the perfect position to help themselves by taking advantage of the current real estate market. However, boomers can make stronger bids on homes for sale because of their savings and real estate equity. AdvertisementMeanwhile, more than one-third of house purchases in September were all-cash, according to the real estate broker RedFin.
Persons: , They're, Jessica Lautz, RedFin, Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch Organizations: Service, National Association of Realtors, NAR, Brigade, Census Bureau, Federal, Rosenberg Research, North, Federal Reserve Locations: North American
Leaders need to articulate team needs; workers need to be honest about work-life prioritization. The flexibility of signing on from their living room leaves more time for school pickups, doctor's appointments, and meal planning, but it's more of a Band-Aid than a real fix for the pile of challenges working moms often face. For these women, who want to be great moms and have fulfilling careers, and some RTO mandates may make achieving both (or either!) AdvertisementAdvertisementTaking an individual approach to employees can help them do their best work — and meet the employer's needs — especially because many RTO mandates often fail to take into account what many working moms need, Scheib said. And I think the kids will suffer at the end of the day and moms and their mental health will suffer."
Persons: , it's, it'll, Kelly Resendez, Danna Greenberg, Wells, Cork Gaines, Greenberg, Resendez, aren't, Mandy McAllister, Kelly Scheib, Scheib, prescriptively Organizations: Service, Babson College, Bank of America
NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . My family of four recently ordered dinner from our favorite local taco shop in Austin, Texas, through the DoorDash app. AdvertisementAdvertisementOverall, food inflation is currently in line with the overall number of 3.7%. Ultimately, that extra $0.65 we are paying for the side of rice from our favorite taco shop doesn't feel like much.
Persons: , Cork Gaines Organizations: Service, Cork Gaines Inflation, Federal Reserve Locations: Austin , Texas, DoorDash, Cork
It's a terrible time to be a HENRY
  + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | Cork Gaines | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +8 min
Their wage and job growth is slower than lower earners, they're piling on debt, and childcare costs are soaring. Workers with earnings in the bottom 10% of wages saw higher wage gains than those in the top 10%. AdvertisementAdvertisementWhile wage gains have stabilized a bit, the bottom half of workers are still notching greater gains than those at the top. Meanwhile, the already rich — those who make over $250,000 — only saw their childcare costs increase by about 4%. As the labor market continues to slow, and childcare costs only rise with the end of pandemic-era subsidies , it might continue to be a bad time to be a HENRY.
Persons: , there's, Aaron Terrazas, What's, Priya Malani, HENRYs, Goldman Sachs, they're, HENRY Organizations: Service, MIT, University of Massachusetts Amherst, of Economic Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bank of America Institute, Walmart, Consumer Finances, Federal Reserve, Fed
More remote work opportunities are credited for helping women with young children get jobs. AdvertisementAdvertisementAdditionally, the Wells Fargo economists also identified women with young children as a new strength for the job market. This surge in employment, particularly among mothers with young children, has played a significant role in boosting the economy. To be sure, this level of workforce participation could drop in the coming months as childcare opportunities become harder to find. Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesThe robust labor market has helped boost the economy despite inflation still above the Federal Reserve's 2.0% target.
Persons: , Wells Fargo, Jobs, Janet Yellen, Drew Angerer, Daniel Greenhaus, Greenhaus, Paul McCulley, McCulley Organizations: Service, Wells, Brookings, US, U.S . Treasury, Federal, payrolls, Bloomberg, Georgetown's School of Business Locations: Wells, Wells Fargo, U.S
A new wave of weight loss drugs could lead to indirect effects for all kinds of companies. Ozempic is a brand name for semaglutide, a diabetes drug that also has weight loss effects. Walmart, for example, which sells Ozempic and other GLP-1 drugs, found that customers buying those medications spent less on food year over year but more on lifestyle and fitness. Additionally, employee productivity could increase as Americans see the long-term benefits of weight loss and stay in the workforce longer. AdvertisementAdvertisementFor example, Walmart, which sells GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic, found that customers buying those medications spent less on food year over year but more on lifestyle and fitness.
Persons: It's, , it's, Nik Modi, Modi, Josh Barro, Barro, Morgan Stanley, Scott Olson, they're, Houlihan Lawrence, James van Geelen, van Geelen Organizations: Service, Walmart, RBC Capital Markets, Jefferies, United Airlines, Citrinitas
Many states subsidize golf courses with low property taxes, so non-golfers are footing the bill. David Madison/Getty ImagesUrban golf courses also cost taxpayers — even those who don't play — a lot of money. Proponents of retrofitting courses note that reducing the number of golf courses would help boost revenue for courses that do survive. "But then on the flip side, we have these public golf courses that are just these almost vacuous spaces that are quite underutilized." He noted that projects that just involve turning golf courses into parks are often most palatable to neighbors.
Persons: , they'd, Franciscans who'd, Zach Klein, VDERHLrowD, David Madison, it's, Malcolm Gladwell, Scottie Scheffler, Richard Heathcote, Mitchell Reardon, htpq6Uqx8q — Cork Gaines, Ray Delahanty, Jennifer Keesmaat, Keesmaat, Don, RENE JOHNSTON, Charlie McCabe, he's, Former California Assemblymember Cristina Garcia, McCabe, Reardon Organizations: Urban, Service, Franciscans, Olympic, Getty, Los Angeles Country Club, United, 123rd U.S, YouTube, Center, City, Trust, Public, Denver, Council, Democrat Locations: Presidio, U.S, San Francisco , California, California, San Francisco's, Golden, Beverly Hills, United States, Los Angeles , California, Cities, Florida, Toronto, haven't, Don Valley, Toronto , Ontario, New Orleans, Former California, Los Angeles County
UK's household wealth dropped due to rising interest rates, with regions like Scotland hit hardest. The US faces a similar risk with many Americans' wealth tied up in home equity and retirement accounts. Decline in UK household wealth since the start of 2022. Scotland, Wales, and the North of England had the biggest drops of 24% to 26% in total household wealth. Similar factors are seen in the USThe factors leading to declining household wealth in the UK cast a long shadow over the US.
Persons: , Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, Daniel Bustamante, boomers Organizations: Service, Bank of England, Foundation, Federal Reserve's Survey, Consumer Finances, Treasury, Brigade, Bustamante, Co Locations: Scotland, Wales, England, East, North
A new estimate says the record summer heat in Texas cost the state's economy $24 billion. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe Lone Star State's punishing and record-breaking heat wave, coupled with an unyielding drought, significantly affected local businesses and, by extension, the state's economy. For every 1-degree increase in average summer temperature, Texas sees a 0.4% slowdown in its annual nominal GDP growth. Notable establishments like Schlitterbahn, SeaWorld, and Six Flags blamed their dips in summer visitors on the heat wave. AdvertisementAdvertisementOne brewery owner in Austin told My San Antonio that the summer heat "crushed" the city as several local breweries were forced to close their doors.
Persons: Kirk Watson, Watson, SUZANNE CORDEIRO, Austin Organizations: Service, Austin, Dallas Federal Reserve, Star, Banking, Dallas Fed, Dallas Fed's, Six Flags, Houston . Houston Chronicle, Hearst Newspapers, Getty, Texas, Texas State Locations: Texas, . Texas, Dallas, Dallas Fed's Texas, SeaWorld, Colorado, Utah, Antonio, Houston ., Arlington, cabanas
Why IPAs are about to get more expensive
  + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( Cork Gaines | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
New research predicts the yield of already high-demand aroma hops to drop between 4% and 18% by 2050. This is important for the beer industry because the ever-popular India Pale Ales (IPAs) and their related off-shoots depend on aroma hops for their unique scents and bitter taste. AdvertisementAdvertisementHowever, the high-quality hops needed for IPAs to achieve their desired bitterness and aromas are already more expensive, so these beers are typically more costly than traditional styles. As the climate changes, areas that were once home to hops production become less hospitable, but new areas could open up. The authors concluded by calling on "urgent adaptation measures to stabilize international market chains," noting that these changes "will affect the economics and prospects" for European hop production.
Persons: Untappd, Nicolas Jooris Organizations: Service, Change Research, Czech Academy of Sciences, Getty, Farmers Locations: Europe, India, microbreweries, Germany, Czech Republic, Slovenia, Yakima Valley, Washington, East Coast
The switch to electric vehicles is still hampered by the high cost compared to gas cars. The higher upfront costs don't consider several less obvious costs that can hit after buying an EV. AdvertisementAdvertisementThose premiums are driven by higher repair costs. According to Mitchell, a collision repair software company, the average repair cost for a non-Tesla EV is $269 higher than the average for all vehicles. If people interested in used EVs are worried about replacing an expensive battery, the resale value will take a big hit.
Persons: , Johnny Bacigalupo, Sandy Munro, Bankrate, Mitchell, Mark Matousek, Kevin Tynan, Davis, Power Organizations: Service, Edinburgh, EV, Washington Post, Insurance, Anderson Economic Group, Ford, Bloomberg, Toyota, University of California Locations: Scotland, skyrocket, Canada, Edmunds
download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . As interest rates skyrocketed over the last 18 months, inflation fell from a 40-year high during the summer of 2022. Laoshi/Getty ImagesMcCulley echoed this when asked if strong retail sales are sign that the economy is not coming in for a soft landing. In the short term, further declines in inflation could be difficult if people are spending money they saved during the pandemic. Strong consumer spending is a good sign, but the economy is not out of the woods yet.
Persons: it's, , Daniel Greenhaus, Greenhaus, Paul McCulley, McCulley, Tim Quinlan, Quinlan, Laoshi, didn't, Tom Barkin, ZIlloq, Paul Bradbury, Patrick Harker, Harker Organizations: Service, payrolls, Georgetown's School of Business, Wells, Richmond, Getty Images, Fed Locations: Wells Fargo
Two new surveys show most Americans feel like they are behind on their retirement savings. Competing forces of the "financial vortex" and lack of financial plans are hurting retirement hopes. Goldman Sachs calls it a "financial vortex," and says simply having a plan can help Americans find their way through. While most have a dim outlook, the results varied by age and whether or not they had a financial plan. To avoid falling behind, Goldman Sachs said the two biggest factors that can help people reach their retirement goals are increasing financial literacy and having a personalized financial plan.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs, Bankrate, Gen Xers, boomers, Gen Zers, Zers, Hinterhaus, Drazen Zigic Organizations: Service, Goldman, Getty Locations: millennials
Interest rates on traditionally "safer" investments like Treasury bonds are high. Economist Thomas Hogan of the American Institute for Economic Research recently pointed out this upside to the interest rates and how it is helping Americans. "Now, interest rates on US Treasury bonds are at the highest in more than a decade, giving savers a safe, stable place to store their money." If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate. However, to the extent that strength in the economy is behind the increase in long-term interest rates, the FOMC may need to do more."
Persons: , Thomas Hogan, Hogan, Jerome Powell, Kevin Dietsch, Tim Hayes, Lorie Logan, Logan Organizations: Service, Treasury, American Institute for Economic Research, Federal, NDR, U.S, Supreme, Dallas Locations: Israel
The impact on oil prices would be enormous with one prediction of $150 per barrel. A surge in oil prices could undo the fight against inflation and cause prices to soar again. International Monetary Fund managing director Kristalina Georgieva expressed concern on Thursday over how global oil markets would be impacted by the war. If that were to happen, they predict that oil prices would skyrocket more than 70% to $150 per barrel from just under $90 we have now. An estimated 20-30% of global oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is controlled by Iran.
Persons: , Kristalina Georgieva, Steven Mnuchin, That's, Mnuchin, Mustafa Hassona, there's, Jerome Powell, Liu Jie Organizations: Service, Hamas, Monetary Fund, Bloomberg Economics, Bloomberg, US, Fox Business, Anadolu Agency, Getty, Biden, US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Strategic Petroleum Reserve Locations: Israel, Iran, Hormuz, Iraq, Kuwait, Abu Nasr, Gaza City, Ukraine, Washington ,, Xinhua
This has retailers using an old trick to hide the true value of discounts from consumers, Walmart's ex-CEO says. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . This means prices are still rising faster than the Fed's goal of getting inflation back down to 2.0%. The same logic applies here as a percentage discount doesn't mean you're getting a good deal if the original price was already greatly inflated.
Persons: Walmart's, , it's, Bill Simon, Simon, they'll Organizations: Service, CNBC, Walmart, Hanes, Darden, Brands, Costco
The US is in a childcare crisis due to cost and lack of available teachers. The state now gives free tuition to the children of childcare teachers. However, one potential solution appears to be working, but only if governments are willing to step in and help. AdvertisementAdvertisementNPR found one example of a center offering free tuition to employees without state assistance in West Virginia. Many childcare centers may be forced to close.
Persons: , Kentucky Daniel Light, Sinead, ZipRecruiter, Luis Alvarez, Clive R Organizations: Service, Census Bureau, Center for American Progress, Bluegrass State, NPR, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Economic, Institute, Walmart, View, National Association for, Education of Young Locations: Kentucky, West Virginia, NPR , Kentucky
There is no end in sight for high mortgage rates, and sellers are dropping prices. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe housing market is in an ugly place right now for buyers and while things may be stabilizing, that just means pressure will likely shift from buyers to sellers. Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman made headlines in recent weeks with several interviews where he said the housing market had hit "rock bottom." "The housing market is just taking a beating because affordability is at a four-decade low. While the market might not get worse for buyers, sellers are not yet at rock bottom after enjoying years of rising home values.
Persons: , Glenn Kelman, Kelman, ZIlloq, Paul Bradbury, Zillow, Jeff Tucker, Redfin, Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Luis M, Alvarez, Tom Barkin, Alou Diarra, Getty Organizations: Service, CNBC, Getty, Cleveland Fed, Altos Research, Rosenberg Research, North, AP, Richmond, Fed Locations: North American
The hope of avoiding a recession in the US heated up this year despite interest rates skyrocketing over the past 18 months. They also have more of a buffer than from the economic impact of inflation and higher interest rates than younger generations. AdvertisementAdvertisementWhile high interest rates and soaring prices for homes in recent years are terrible for young buyers, they are increasing the wealth of older Americans. Lance McMillan/Toronto Star via Getty ImagesMeanwhile, higher rates are helping older Americans grow their wealth in other ways. So older Americans who, in the past, would have been forced to sacrifice higher returns for safer investments can now get both.
Persons: boomers, , Taylor Swift, Tim Robberts, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, they'll, they've, Lance McMillan, Neil Howe, demographer, Howe Organizations: Boomers, Service, Census Bureau, Labor, Images, Yardeni Research, New, Toronto Star, Getty, Treasury Locations: New York
A new study shows Levi's Stadium generated $2 billion for the local economy in its first 10 years. More than $300 million was brought in before Levi's Stadium opened and was used to help pay for its construction. Her two concerts at Levi's Stadium in July are estimated to have generated a total of $33.5 million in economic impact for the area. AdvertisementAdvertisementGuido thanked the citizens of the Bay Area in a letter and lauded the economic impact study in a statement. Before the Levi's Stadium analysis, most earlier studies showed the impact of a stadium rarely lives up to the promises of the teams.
Persons: Taylor Swift, , SportsEconomics, Coldplay, Elton John, Kate Green, Al Guido, QuestionPro, Swifties, Mike Coppola, doesn't, Robert Beck, Goldman Sachs, Guido Organizations: Service, San Francisco 49ers, 49ers, Levi's, NFL, Office Sports, Bank of America, Fortune, Las Vegas Convention, Vistors Authority, Super, MTV, Goldman, Santa Clara Stadium Authority, Minnesota Vikings, Swift Locations: Santa Clara, Glendale , Arizona, Minneapolis
A new Bloomberg model shows a better-than-50% chance a recession could begin this year. According to Anna Wong and Tom Orlik, two chief economists at Bloomberg Economics, the model works "fairly well" at matching previous calls of recession. AdvertisementAdvertisementAccording to the model, the US could declare a recession in 2024 following a possible economic dip in the last months of 2023. Other factors not out of the woodsAnd then there are the maybes: the United Auto Workers strike and a potential government shutdown. If the model is correct, there is already a good chance a recession may hit.
Persons: , Anna Wong, Tom Orlik, Mario Tama, Taylor Swift, Jeff Kravitz, Debbie Downer, Paul Sancya, Kevin McCarthy, It'll Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, National Bureau of Economic Research, Bloomberg Economics, San Francisco Fed, United Auto Workers, Victoria Hall, Ford Michigan Assembly Plant, GM, Ford, AP Locations: Santa Clara , California, Wayne, Mich
At a White House briefing, reporters asked John Kirby if Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce are dating. A spokesperson for the White House did not comment on the relationship when asked by Insider. AdvertisementAdvertisementNo one is safe from questions about Taylor Swift and Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. And the Taylor Swift economic bump likely isn't going anywhere. It's no wonder, then, that the White House is being questioned on who Taylor Swift is, anyway: She's a major economic powerhouse for the country.
Persons: John Kirby, Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, Kirby, , Karine Jean, Pierre, Swift, Jean, Pierre wasn't, Joe Biden, it's, Cork Gaines, QuestionPro, Swifties, Jake, who's, Taylor Organizations: White, Service, Kansas City Chiefs, White House Press, National Security Council, The White, NFL, Chiefs, Chicago Bears, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, Philadelphia Locations: Hollywood
Bank of America predicts people will continue to spend big on live entertainment. AdvertisementAdvertisementMaybe the epic summer of Taylor Swift, Beyoncé, and "Barbenheimer" was just the beginning and not just a one-off outlier. On the surface, this contradicts some earlier warnings that while entertainment spending did prop up the economy, it would be fleeting. Bank of America did warn in its report that there is some risk in betting on "funflation" to continue. But if Bank of America's predictions are correct, the economy may feel the effects of entertainment spending despite the diminished sparkle of the performers.
Persons: Taylor Swift, , Beyoncé, Kevin Mazur, Grace Smith, Swift Organizations: of America, Service, Bank of America, Force, Bloomberg, MediaNews, Denver, Getty, Bloomberg Economics Locations: Stockholm, Denver, Swift
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