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Minneapolis CNN —Despite Tuesday’s credit rating downgrade amid concerns about the challenges facing the United States, markets and economists are expecting another solid jobs report on Friday. And while economic data isn’t typically the sexiest of topics, the monthly jobs report has in recent months delivered plenty of excitement and its fair share of surprises. Come Friday, the government’s jobs report for this July might not end up being quite so shocking. In fact, it could be relatively humdrum: A slight cooling in job growth, and unemployment holding steady. The broader economic scorecard for the United States makes the downgrade all the more “bizarre” and puzzling, noted top economists, including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Persons: , Daniel Zhao, Refinitiv, Chris Rupkey, That’s, Michael Gapen, Janet Yellen, Glassdoor’s Zhao, ” Zhao, there’s, ” Andy Challenger, Challenger, Gus Faucher, they’re, Becky Frankiewicz, Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Glassdoor, Bank of America, ” Bank of America, Fitch, Challenger, “ Companies, PNC Financial Services Group, CNN, Labor Statistics, BLS, “ Employers, ManpowerGroup Locations: Minneapolis, United States
Still, businesses aren't feeling too optimistic, with most still expecting a recession this year. However, big companies are hiring, businesses are expanding, and lots of entrepreneurs are filing to open new startups. This was partly due to consumers spending more and business investment being way up. The main measure of business investment in the GDP report is well above pre-pandemic levels, and shows no signs of slowing down ahead of a hypothetical recession. Businesses also aren't feeling too optimistic according to the National Federation of Independent Business' Small Business Optimism Index.
Persons: , Gregory Daco, Daco, Jeffrey Roach, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Bureau, Infrastructure Investment, Jobs, US . Entrepreneurs, Economic Innovation Group, Economic, Nationwide, Edelman Data, Intelligence, National Federation of Independent Business, LPL, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon
U.S. stock indexes rose Friday, lifted by tech shares, as blue-chip earnings and fresh inflation data rolled in. Big tech stocks, including Alphabet and Meta Platforms, powered ahead. Intel gained after it posted a return to profit late Thursday on the back of a resurgent PC market . Tesla and other EV stocks rose , while Ford retreated. Big tech shares were among the day's leading gainers.
Persons: Ford, Dow industrials, Dow Organizations: Intel, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Federal, Nasdaq, Big, Meta, Treasury, Overseas, Technology Locations: Big, ., Japan's, Japan, Europe
U.S. stock indexes closed higher Friday, lifted by tech shares, as blue-chip earnings and fresh inflation data rolled in. Intel gained after it posted a return to profit late Thursday on the back of a resurgent PC market . The S&P 500 and Dow industrials also rose; all three ended the week with gains. Big tech shares were among the day's leading gainers. Intel's rise lifted an index of chip stocks.
Persons: Ford, Dow industrials, Dow, Brent Organizations: Intel, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Federal, Nasdaq, Big, Treasury Locations: ., Japan's, Japan
Wages and benefits paid to US workers rose 1% in the second quarter from the prior one, a slightly weaker pace than the 1.2% gain in the first three months of the year. The Employment Cost Index, a comprehensive measure of employers’ compensation costs, advanced 4.5% in the second quarter from a year earlier, a slower pace than the 4.8% rise earlier in the year. Monitoring the tight labor marketThe Fed is closely watching the state of the labor market because of the role that higher labor costs play in pushing up consumer prices. But the job market has cooled in the past several months as job openings declined while the share of people employed or seeking work increased, so some of those dynamics have been slowly unwinding. It remains to be seen whether inflation can drift all the way to 2% without a substantial weakening in the labor market.
Persons: paychecks, Friday’s, , Daniel Zhao Organizations: DC CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Fed, University of Michigan’s Locations: Washington
The two-day jump in gasoline prices — the biggest in a year — is combining with a rally in wheat and other agricultural commodities. All told, gas prices have spiked 9 cents in 48 hours. Lower gas prices have been central to progress on slowing price increases. The IMF warned on Tuesday that grain prices could rise by 10% to 15% because of the collapse of the grain deal. Yawger noted that soybean futures have also climbed sharply amid concerns about high heat hurting crops in the United States.
Persons: haven’t, , , Patrick De Haan, unnerve, Jerome Powell, Francisco Blanch, Joe Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Robert Yawger, Yawger, De Haan Organizations: New York CNN, Federal Reserve, AAA, unnerve ’, Bank of America, RSM, IMF, Mizuho Securities, Hurricanes, Nature, ExxonMobil, CNN Locations: Russia, Ukraine, United States, Baton Rouge
What to expect from the Fed’s decision on rates
  + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks during an annual gathering of central bankers and economists in Wyoming next month could shed more light on what to expect for the September decision. There are three possibilities for what the Fed might do moving forward, according to economists: a second consecutive rate hike in September, one in November, or no more rate hikes after July. The Commerce Department releases the June reading of the Fed’s favorite inflation measure Friday. The Fed held rates steady for nine straight meetings over the span of a year the last time it paused a rate-hiking campaign in 2006. Nearly all of the Fed’s decisions have been unanimous since the central bank began lifting rates in March 2022, with the exception of two meetings early in the Fed’s current inflation battle.
Persons: it’s, Jerome Powell’s, It’s, haven’t, inflation’s, Ben Bernanke, Raphael Bostic, there’s, hawkish, “ Powell, ” Seema Shah, Powell, Christopher Waller, you’re, , José Torres, ” Powell, Jerome Powell Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Fed, Commerce Department, Market Committee, Atlanta Fed, Asset Management, CNN, , The Labor Department, Interactive Locations: Washington, Wyoming,
What to expect from this week’s Fed meeting
  + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
After the Fed’s July monetary policy meeting, which concludes on Wednesday, investors will be looking for more details around that potential hike. That’s why the Fed is trying to retain the option of another rate increase in case inflation proves to be more resilient than expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks during an annual gathering of central bankers and economists in Wyoming next month could shed more light on what to expect for the September decision. There are three possibilities for what the Fed might do moving forward, according to economists: a second consecutive rate hike in September, one in November, or no more rate hikes after July. Whatever the Fed decides to do won’t come without a vigorous debate, and perhaps even a dissent, though the Fed has a tradition of collegiality.
Persons: , it’s, Jerome Powell’s, It’s, haven’t, inflation’s, Ben Bernanke, Raphael Bostic, there’s, hawkish, “ Powell, ” Seema Shah, Powell, Christopher Waller, you’re, , José Torres, ” Powell, Jerome Powell Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Fed, Commerce Department, Market Committee, Atlanta Fed, Asset Management, CNN, , The Labor Department, Interactive Locations: Washington, Wyoming,
Washington, DC CNN —American businesses are expected to fare better in the coming months, according to a survey of economists and analysts released Monday. A survey from the National Association for Business Economics released Monday showed that businesses have rejoiced in better economic conditions. Meanwhile, a majority of respondents reported that wages at their firms were unchanged — the first time more economists reported no wage gains than rising wages since 2021. The Fed doesn’t necessarily need a recession to do that, but some research suggests the labor market must cool further. The labor market is closely watched by Fed officials since higher labor costs feed into inflation.
Persons: haven’t, , Julia Coronado, Austan Goolsbee, cooldown, Brian Moynihan, bode Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, University of Michigan’s, Consumers, National Association for Business, Employers, Chicago Fed, Bank of America, Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Federation of Independent, Fed Locations: Washington
CNN —Nancy Pelosi said on Sunday that House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was “playing politics” with the idea of expunging former President Donald Trump’s two impeachments. “Kevin is, you know, playing politics. McCarthy called Trump to apologize after the interview, claiming he misspoke on CNBC, sources told CNN. A member of the House of Representatives since 1987, Pelosi would not say whether she plans to run for reelection. Pelosi separately called it “completely, totally ridiculous” that Alabama GOP Gov.
Persons: CNN — Nancy Pelosi, Kevin McCarthy, , Donald Trump’s, Kevin, ” Pelosi, CNN’s Dana, ” McCarthy, McCarthy, Trump, Donald Trump, Pelosi, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Kennedy, Joe Biden’s, , “ He’s, Kay Ivey Organizations: CNN, Union, Trump, California Republican, CNBC, Federal Government, GOP, Republicans, Consumer, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, Alabama GOP, Republican Party Locations: “ State, California, Alabama, Black
New York CNN —Bulls and bears have always engaged in battle on Wall Street. Before the Bell: Why is there a growing division between bulls and bears? If a rally continues, the bulls will say that the bears missed it. If it moves in the other direction, in a swift fashion, then the bears will say that the bulls were overly optimistic. “I don’t know if it’s going to lead to a soft landing, a mild recession or a hard recession,” Dimon said during the call.
Persons: Liz Young, Bell, Young, we’re, Jamie Dimon, I’ve, Matt Egan, Dimon, JPMorgan Chase, “ tailwinds, ” Dimon, ” Jeremy Barnum, ” Barnum, Coco Chanel ’, Ellie Stevens, Shein, , Coco Chanel, Yves Saint Laurent, Xu Yangtian, Chris Xu, “ SHEIN, Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN — Bulls, Big Tech, JPMorgan, CNN, JPMorgan Chase, First Locations: New York, Ukraine, First Republic, California
The Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, showed that inflation was double the target in May (more on inflation shortly). Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index showed that annual inflation slowed from 4% to 3% in June, the lowest level since March 2021. Then on Thursday came Producer Price Index data, which measures the average change in prices that businesses pay to suppliers. That data showed annual wholesale inflation cooled last month to the lowest level in nearly three years. And June of last year was monumental: Annual inflation soared to 9.1%, the highest in more than 40 years largely because of record-high energy costs,” she wrote.
Persons: Michael Scott, Price, , Mary Daly, “ It’s, Alicia Wallace, Freddie Mac, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase, can’t, Dimon, , — CNN’s Bryan Mena, Matt Egan Organizations: New, New York CNN, Reserve, ” San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, University of Michigan, JPMorgan, CNN Locations: New York, ” San Francisco
US annual inflation slowed to 3% last month, according to the latest Consumer Price Index released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The June annual rate is down from 4% in May and landed slightly below economists’ expectations for a 3.1% increase, according to Refinitiv. Starting in March 2022, the central bank rolled out 10 consecutive interest rate hikes to tame inflation, finally hitting pause last month. And June of last year was monumental: Annual inflation soared to 9.1%, the highest in more than 40 years largely because of record-high energy costs. So the Fed and economists have been keyed in on what’s happening with core inflation, particularly core services.
Persons: Olivia Newton, ” William Ferguson, , Joe Biden, ” Sung Won Sohn, Lael Brainard, ” Brainard, Brainard, ” Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter, Sohn, , , Nicole Goodkind Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI, Grinnell College, CNN, Federal Reserve, Loyola Marymount University, SS Economics, Core PCE, National Economic Council, Economic, of New, BLS, Kansas City Fed Locations: Minneapolis, Iowa, of New York
But beneath the surface, the jobs market remains hot. What’s next: The June Consumer Price Index report, a key inflation reading, is due on Wednesday. The Producer Price Index report for June is due on Thursday. Wednesday: Consumer Price Index report and housing starts for June. Thursday: Producer Price Index report for June.
Persons: , Joseph Davis, What’s, That’s, James Ragan, DA Davidson, Candice Tse, Price, Chris Isidore, Biden, Julie Su Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Vanguard, Traders, DA, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, UPS, Teamsters, NY, Reserve’s Survey, University of Michigan
Minneapolis CNN —The US job market cooled back down in June, adding just 209,000 jobs, and fueling optimism that the economy is on course to nail that elusive soft landing of lowering inflation without triggering a recession. That being said, last month’s job growth still outpaces the pre-pandemic average. “The job growth is slowing, but I don’t actually think that’s necessarily a bad thing,” Rucha Vankudre, senior economist for labor market analytics company Lightcast, told CNN. “In the tug of war between the labor market and the economy, there is still a push and pull, yet the labor market remains strong,” Becky Frankiewicz, president and chief commercial officer of ManpowerGroup, said in commentary issued Friday. In June, sectors such as government, as well as health care and social assistance, saw the biggest job gains: 60,000 and 65,200, respectively.
Persons: Rucha Vankudre, We’re, Becky Frankiewicz, ManpowerGroup, , Lightcast’s Vankudre, ” “, Joe Brusuelas, ” Brusuelas, “ We’re, Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNN, , Federal Reserve, Service, BLS, RSM, Fed Locations: Minneapolis
Stock futures were little changed Thursday evening, as investors refocused their attention on the upcoming June payrolls report and the implications for the Federal Reserve's policy stance. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 futures were flat. That figure far exceeded the 220,000 estimate from economists polled by Dow Jones. This week's main event for economic data looms ahead: the Labor Department's June payrolls report, which is due Friday morning. Economists polled by Dow Jones anticipate an increase of 240,000 positions, a cooldown from May's gain of 339,000 jobs.
Persons: Levi Strauss, Dow Jones, Stocks, Kathy Jones, Dow Organizations: Federal, Dow Jones Industrial, ADP, Treasury, Dow, Nasdaq, Labor, Traders, CME Group, Schwab Center, Financial Research
Despite some recent positive signs for the U.S. economy, the Wall Street consensus is holding out belief that a recession is lurking. Still, LPL doesn't see "another 2008" even though "investors should anticipate some volatility as the economic outlook remains cloudy." However, Wall Street persists in worries that the central bank will not be able to engineer its hoped-for soft landing. "Optimism around a soft landing [is] growing with the rally in equities and strong labor market," Horneman said. "We believe the chance of a soft landing is unlikely."
Persons: Jeffrey Roach, Lawrence Gillum, Roach, Gillum, LPL, BlackRock, DBRS Morningstar, Michael Heydt, Jerome Powell, Megan Horneman, Horneman Organizations: LPL, Fed, of Michigan, Atlanta, Wall, Investment, BlackRock, ECB, Wednesday, Financial Services Committee, Verdence Capital Advisors Locations: U.S
Bull market or fool's market? Investors say the latter
  + stars: | 2023-06-18 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +10 min
Mega-cap tech stocks that were battered by rising interest rates in 2022 have also seen a huge boost this year. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held interest rates steady but indicated that it could hike rates twice more this year. Tech stocks’ record runApple shares closed at a record high on Thursday, creeping closer to reaching a $3 trillion market capitalization. The rally’s next testDespite some bullish signs in the market, investors say the math isn’t adding up to a sustained rally — especially considering a possible recession looms on the horizon. The central bank last Wednesday paused interest rates and indicated that it could raise rates two more times this year.
Persons: Dow, , Amanda Agati, Wednesday’s, Stocks, Joe Biden, Dan Ives, , ” Ives, Richard Steinberg, Jerome Powell, Agati, Sylvia Jablonski, Christopher Waller, Thomas Barkin, ” Waller, Sarah Henry, Henry, Here’s, Price, Refinitiv, Paul Eitelman, ” Eitelman Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Apple, Nasdaq, PNC Financial Services, Management, , Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Wedbush Securities, Microsoft, The Colony, Treasury, , Federal, Richmond Fed, Logan Capital Management, CPI, PPI, University of, Consumers, North America, Russell Investments, Wednesday, National Association of Realtors, Senate Locations: New York, what’s, Oslo
The Consumer Price Index, a key inflation gauge that measures price changes for a basket of goods and services, increased 4% for the year ending in May. That represents a sharp pullback from April’s 4.9% and is slightly below economists’ expectations for a 4.1% gain, according to Refinitiv. It’s the 11th consecutive month that inflation has slowed, and it’s a welcome reprieve from the painful shock of persistently high inflation endured during the past two years. The Fed would like to see inflation (as measured by the core Personal Consumption Expenditures index) settle in at 2%. Markets are currently pricing in a 95.3% probability that the Fed pauses on Wednesday, according to CME FedWatch.
Persons: It’s, , Nancy Vanden Houten, it’s, Chris Zaccarelli, “ They’ve, , Scott Olson, Vanden Houten, There’s, Kurt Rankin, ” Rankin Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Oxford Economics, CNN, Federal Reserve, Independent, CPI, Fed, FedWatch, Walmart, Federal Reserve Bank, Richmond, Hospitality, PNC Financial Services, PNC, United Locations: Minneapolis, Chicago , Illinois, United States
New data from the Census Bureau reveals construction spending by US manufacturers more than doubled from last year. According to data from the Census Bureau released last week, construction spending by US manufacturers more than doubled over the past year. The IRA has sought to create new jobs in manufacturing, construction, and renewable energy, estimated to create up to 1.5 million jobs by 2030. Construction spending in most areas of the US economy has fallen in contrast, including office, health care, and educational construction. Census Bureau data reveals manufacturing construction spending has escalated from January 2020 until April 2023 in every region except New England and the Mid Atlantic.
Organizations: Service, Census, World Bank, of Labor, National Association of Manufacturers, National Environmental Locations: China, Asia, New England, India, Thailand, Vietnam
The shortage is hitting some buyers more than others. The lack of affordable homes heated up competition in the market this spring, which reversed the cooldown in home prices that started last summer. At the higher price ranges, too many homes are for sale for the number of Americans who can afford them. Areas in the Midwest continue to have the highest number of affordable homes. The four cities with the largest supply of affordable homes are all in Ohio.
Persons: Noah Herrera, Danielle Hale Organizations: National Association of Realtors Locations: Realtor.com, Las Vegas, El Paso , Texas, Boise , Idaho, Spokane , Washington, Florida, Riverside, Los Angeles , California, Ohio, Syracuse , New York, Pittsburgh , Pennsylvania, Louis , Missouri
New York CNN —The Dow surged over 700 points mid-afternoon Friday as investors applauded Congress’s passage of the debt ceiling deal and celebrated a cheerful jobs report. The blue-chip index soared 734 points, or 2.2%, putting it on track for the best daily gain since November 2022. A mixed May jobs report also helped boost stocks. “The May jobs report is a particularly difficult one for the Fed to parse,” Bank of America economists wrote in a Friday note. “We think the May jobs report is just soft enough to justify a hold.”
Persons: , , Keith Lerner Organizations: New, New York CNN, Dow, Nasdaq, Senate, Advisory Services . Futures, ” Bank of America Locations: New York, United States
HousingRichard Newstead | Moment | Getty ImagesHousing is perhaps the most consequential category in the consumer price index, a key inflation barometer. But Covid-19 warped that dynamic: Housing costs shot up but have slowed and even started to fall in some areas, economists said. Overall inflation is expected to slow sharply during the second half of the year as the CPI incorporates the housing price cooldown, economists said. The government doesn't calculate health insurance inflation by measuring consumers' direct costs, such as monthly premiums. Health insurance inflation readings may flip positive in fall 2023 and persist into 2024 due to this dynamic, Zandi said.
Persons: Housing Richard Newstead, Zandi, Price, Mark Zandi, Andrew Hunter, Hunter, There's, Jordi Mora Igual Organizations: Housing, Capital Economics, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, CPI, Health, Images, Kaiser Family Foundation, Consumers
Gas is almost $1 cheaper than a year ago
  + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
But gas prices are miles away from last summer’s nightmare. At this point last year, gas prices were racing toward $5 a gallon, angering Americans, alarming central bankers and threatening the entire economy. Gas is not cheapTo be sure, gas prices are not nearly as cheap as back in 2020 when the national average crashed below $2 a gallon. Looking ahead, gas prices will probably remain far away from last summer’s peak. “If we return to economic prosperity, we’re going to return to the same gas price explosion as last year.”
Buying Home Depot shares could be a win right now, given recent reports suggesting professional contractors are faring better than expected, Jim Cramer said Tuesday. In recent conference calls from Stanley Black & Decker and paint company PPG , the CEOs said professional contractors currently have surprisingly strong backlogs, despite a cooldown on the consumer front. Cramer used the information as a prime example of how to pick high-quality stocks: Anyone eyeing Home Depot and Lowe's right now would be wise to go with the former, since Lowe's is more consumer-oriented, he said. "If you want to bet on contractors who do home refurbishment and home construction, you've got to be betting on Home Depot," Cramer said. Home Depot reports quarterly results on May 16, and how the market moves between now and then could provide an opportunity.
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