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☆ Morning Bid: Bond yields recoil on disinflation buzz
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanA volte face in Treasury yields has improved investors' mood considerably this week as excitement about U.S. disinflation builds despite conflicting signals from around the world. After bumpy start to the third quarter, stocks and bonds rallied together on Monday - with both two- and 10-year Treasury yields recoiling sharply back below 5% and 4% thresholds respectively. Spurred by more signs of ebbing U.S. inflation ahead of Wednesday's critical June consumer price report, Wall Street stocks also recovered ground on Monday. A New York Fed survey showed on Monday that household inflation expectations for the year ahead fell to 3.8% last month, the lowest in more than two years. But if the U.S. inflation picture is looking more optimistic, it's much harder to read around the world.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Russell, Michael Barr, John Williams, Joe Biden, Jane Merriman Organizations: Wall, Federal, Japan's, New York Fed, Fed, Bank of England, Treasuries, York Federal, NATO, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, ., China, Britain, Hong Kong, Vilnius

The Fed has raised interest rates by 5 percentage points since March 2022 to bring down the highest U.S. inflation in four decades. "We may end up doing less because we need to do less; we may end up doing just that; we could end up doing more. Fed policymakers are widely expected to deliver a rate hike at their meeting later this month, a move that would bring the policy rate to the 5.25%-5.50% range. That could buttress the case that price pressures are weakening, which in turn could take some pressure off the central bank to hike rates again. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, speaking at yet another event on Monday, repeated his view that the Fed can be "patient" on rates and allow restrictive policy to bring down inflation without further action by the central bank.

Persons: Mary Daly, Daly, Jerome Powell, Ann Saphir, Michael Barr, Raphael Bostic, Loretta Mester, Mester, Dan Burns, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Brookings Institution, San Francisco Federal, REUTERS, New York Fed, Atlanta Fed, Cleveland Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, San Francisco , California

☆ Why the Fed is still likely to raise rates after cooler June jobs data
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-09 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

But beneath the surface, the jobs market remains hot. What’s next: The June Consumer Price Index report, a key inflation reading, is due on Wednesday. The Producer Price Index report for June is due on Thursday. Wednesday: Consumer Price Index report and housing starts for June. Thursday: Producer Price Index report for June.

Persons: ”, Joseph Davis, What’s, That’s, James Ragan, DA Davidson, Candice Tse, Price, Chris Isidore, Biden, Julie Su Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Vanguard, Traders, DA, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, UPS, Teamsters, NY, Reserve’s Survey, University of Michigan

☆ Extreme weather is hitting parts of the US. That’s bad news for the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

All told, at least a third of the US population is currently grappling with costly extreme weather events. In 2022, extreme weather events cost the United States about $165 billion, according to the NOAA. Sector by sector: Extreme weather impacts the economy writ large, but certain sectors tend to suffer more than others. Agriculture, construction, tourism and renewable energy sectors also tend to feel the brunt of extreme weather events. “We’re really poorly adapted to the extreme weather and climate that we have right now,” said Mankin.

Persons: New York CNN — We’ve, ”, Justin Mankin, Nam, we’ve, Andrew Watterson, Ian, “ We’re, Mark Thompson, it’s, —, Vladimir Putin, Brent, That’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Dartmouth College, Sunday, National Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, Federal Aviation Administration, FAA, Travelers, Southwest Airlines, O'Hare International, Agriculture, Rystad Energy, Western, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Consumer Locations: New York, Texas, United States, Chicago, Florida, Russia, China, India, Russian, Moscow, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ More than retail or hotels, the film industry is destroying the planet. But sustainable sets like Oscar winner 'The Whale' may offer a new way forward.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Parisa Hashempour | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

InsiderThe film industry has a sustainability problem, and it's massive: The average tentpole production — a film with a budget over $70 million — generates 2,840 tonnes of carbon dioxide, the British Film Institute reported. Yawger saw raw materials from industry waste transform into items such as tables, outdoor furniture, bowls, and benches. "It revealed the film industry was the second most polluting behind aerospace," Jennifer Sandoval, the director of service development at Earth Angel, told Insider. "Plastic and trash are very visible in the film industry, and people can understand why we need to change things," Yawger said. These changes might help drive a more climate-conscious narrative or simply enable Earth Angel to swap out a character's plastic water bottle for a reusable one.

Persons: Max, Leonardo DiCaprio's, Tamsin Hollo, Hollo, Quinn Yawger, Yawger, it's, we're, Jennifer Sandoval, Sandoval, NBCUniversal, Bosque Organizations: British Film Institute, Railroad, University of California, Netflix, United Locations: Thailand, Atlanta, Los Angeles, California, Niebla, Mexico, United Nations

☆ Two U.S. senators to automakers: don't remove AM radio from new vehicles
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( David Shepardson | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, June 23 (Reuters) - Two U.S. senators wrote seven major automakers on Friday urging them not to remove AM radio from new vehicles. "Preserving AM radio not only aligns with the growing recognition of its significance but also demonstrates a commitment to public safety and meeting consumer expectations," the senators wrote. Markey said last month the seven automakers had opted to remove AM broadcast radio from their electric vehicles. The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, a trade group representing major automakers, said, "mandating AM radios in all vehicles is unnecessary. Automakers pointed to an existing system that distributes warnings across AM, FM, internet-based or satellite radio, and over cellular networks.

Persons: Ted Cruz, Ed Markey, Markey, Cruz, Jim Farley, Jessica Rosenworcel, David Shepardson, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Republican, Senate, Committee, BMW, Volkswagen, Mazda, Volvo Cars, Ford, The Alliance, Automotive Innovation, Federal Communications, Thomson

☆ Bull market or fool's market? Investors say the latter
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-18 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

Mega-cap tech stocks that were battered by rising interest rates in 2022 have also seen a huge boost this year. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held interest rates steady but indicated that it could hike rates twice more this year. Tech stocks’ record runApple shares closed at a record high on Thursday, creeping closer to reaching a $3 trillion market capitalization. The rally’s next testDespite some bullish signs in the market, investors say the math isn’t adding up to a sustained rally — especially considering a possible recession looms on the horizon. The central bank last Wednesday paused interest rates and indicated that it could raise rates two more times this year.

Persons: Dow, ”, Amanda Agati, Wednesday’s, Stocks, Joe Biden, Dan Ives, “, ” Ives, Richard Steinberg, Jerome Powell, Agati, Sylvia Jablonski, Christopher Waller, Thomas Barkin, ” Waller, Sarah Henry, Henry, Here’s, Price, Refinitiv, Paul Eitelman, ” Eitelman Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Apple, Nasdaq, PNC Financial Services, Management, “, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Wedbush Securities, Microsoft, The Colony, Treasury, ”, Federal, Richmond Fed, Logan Capital Management, CPI, PPI, University of, Consumers, North America, Russell Investments, Wednesday, National Association of Realtors, Senate Locations: New York, what’s, Oslo

☆ US consumers' near-term inflation expectations hit two-year low; sentiment rises
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Summary Consumer sentiment index rises to 63.9 in June from 59.2One-year inflation expectations drop to 3.3% from 4.2%Long-run inflation expectations dip to 3.0% from 3.1%WASHINGTON, June 16 (Reuters) - U.S. consumers' near-term inflation expectations dropped to more than a two-year low in June and the outlook over the next five years improved slightly, according to a survey on Friday that also showed sentiment perking up. "The Fed will be gratified that the surge in inflation expectations in the late-1970s and early 1980s has not been repeated," said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital in New York. The University of Michigan survey's reading of one-year inflation expectations dropped to 3.3% this month, the lowest since March 2021, from 4.2% in May. The survey's preliminary reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at a four-month high of 63.9 in June compared with 59.2 in May. Its measure of consumer expectations rose to 61.3 from 55.4 last month.

Persons: Conrad DeQuadros, Joanne Hsu, Robert Frick, Lucia Mutikani, Daniel Wallis, Chizu Organizations: University of Michigan's, Fed, Wednesday, Brean, The University of Michigan, Treasury, Reuters, Consumers, Navy Federal Credit Union, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, New York, U.S, Washington, Vienna , Virginia

☆ The Fed is about to decide whether or not to keep ramping up its fight against inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Some anticipate the Fed will raise rates again in July in an attempt to bring inflation down to the 2% target. Even if the Fed forgoes a rate increase on Wednesday, Fed officials have suggested the Fed may hike rates again at later meetings. The survey also found people's expectations of job loss fell 1.3 percentage points to 10.9%, suggesting rising job market strength. "I do not think that wages are the principal driver of inflation," Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters after the Fed's May policy meeting. "For instance, recent evidence shows that wage growth tends to follow inflation, as well as expectations of future inflation."

Persons: —, it's, Jerome Powell, Adam Shapiro, Shapiro Organizations: Federal, Service, Committee, Fed, payrolls, Labor Statistics, Labor, Index, BLS, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank, New York Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of San, National Federation of Independent Business Locations: Ukraine, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

☆ Americans haven’t been this optimistic about inflation in two years
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Minneapolis CNN —Americans are optimistic about inflation being lower in the coming months; however, their future outlooks — for price hikes as well as their own finances — are a little more clouded. Consumers’ near-term inflation expectations fell in May to their lowest level in two years, according to new survey data released Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Additionally, inflation expectations for three and five years from now increased from the month before, according to the New York Fed’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations, which measures expectations and behaviors over time for a rotating panel of 1,300 individuals. Since peaking at a 40-year high last June, inflation has cooled considerably but still remains above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has expressed concern about the possibility of sustained wage gains putting upward pressure on inflation.

Persons: Price, Jerome Powell Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, York, Consumer, Fed, Labor Statistics Locations: Minneapolis, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ Inflation outlook hits two-year low in latest New York Fed survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The central bank's monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations for May showed one-year inflation expectations down 0.3 percentage point to a 4.1% rate. Still, median inflation expectations over the longer run edged higher. The three- and five-year outlooks both increased 0.1 percentage point to respective readings of 3% and 2.7%. Some of the inflation rise has been fed by accelerating wages, and the survey showed the outlook there is also diminishing. Correction: The three- and five-year outlooks both increased 0.1 percentage point to respective readings of 3% and 2.7%.

Organizations: New York Federal Reserve Locations: Austin , Texas, New

☆ Stock market news: The Fed meets next week. What can investors expect?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-11 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

The S&P 500 Index last week entered a bull market, meaning that it notched a 20% rally from its low in October. Moreover, investors appeared calmer than they have in years, after the United States suspended the debt ceiling in time to avoid a default, allowing investors to breathe a sigh of relief. The May Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index reports, two key inflation prints, are also due the days that the Fed meets. But the United States could still suffer a downgrade to its credit rating, even though it avoided losing its ability to make payments on time. Tuesday: Consumer Price Index report for May and NFIB small business optimism index.

Persons: CNN — Stocks, Price, ”, JJ Kinahan, there’s, Karim El Nokali, Jerome Powell, ” El Nokali, —, Joe Biden, Benjamin Jeffery, Patrick Klein, ” Josh Lipsky, it’s, Olivier d’Assier, “ It’s, George Mateyo Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Nasdaq, United, Fed, IG North America, Fitch, AAA, BMO Capital Markets, Franklin, GeoEconomics, International Monetary Fund, Treasury Department, US Treasury, Key Private Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Survey, Consumer, Federal Reserve, Federal, University of Michigan Locations: United States, US

☆ Euro zone consumers more hopeful on inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A shopper pays with a five Euro bank note to buy eggs at a local market in Nice, France, April 26, 2023. REUTERS/Eric GaillardFRANKFURT, June 6 (Reuters) - Euro zone consumers lowered their inflation expectations, a fresh European Central Bank survey showed on Tuesday, a relief for policymakers after an unexpected surge a month earlier, even if underlying price growth is still likely to be stubborn. Still, Knot warned that it could still take some time before inflation, at 6.1% in May, is fully under control. "Because inflation was high for a long period, underlying inflationary pressures have built up," Knot said in a speech. The ECB's consumer expectations survey also included a new nugget that could support arguments for more cautious policy tightening.

Persons: Eric Gaillard FRANKFURT, Klaas, Joachim Nagel, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Balazs Koranyi, Bernadette Baum, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: Nice, France

☆ The future of growth
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Sponsor Post | Sponsor Content Ey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

But even when there's an economic recession, we invariably find a way to spend ourselves back to growth. New product launches, seasonal fashion, increasing portion sizes and an endless aisle of choice have collectively supported growth in consumer spending. It's become an accepted principle that progress is measured through growth and growth is driven by consumption. These changes are weakening the links between consumption, growth, and success. Today, growth and margin are indicative factors of how well a consumer company has delivered to the needs of the market.

☆ US consumers' inflation expectations mixed in April, NY Fed report shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

FILE PHOTO: People walk outside the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in New York City, U.S., March 18, 2020. The regional Fed bank reported as part of its April Survey of Consumer Expectations that respondents see inflation one year from now at 4.4%, down from 4.7% in the March survey. The Fed has been pressing forward aggressively with interest rate rises to lower some of the highest inflation pressures in decades. The U.S. central bank raised rates last week in an action that may be the last of its current tightening campaign, as inflation pressures have started to ease. Survey respondents also said they expect higher unemployment and a greater probability of losing their jobs, as well as a harder time finding new work.

☆ Outlook for household spending slumped in April, New York Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

That came with a corresponding decline of 0.3 percentage point in the overall outlook for inflation over the next year. All of those levels are still above the Fed's 2% inflation target, though they are drifting closer to the goal. Food prices are projected to rise by 5.8%, a 0.1 percentage point decline from the previous month. The likelihood that the unemployment rate will be higher a year from now increased to 41.8%, a 1.1 percentage point increase. Elsewhere in the survey, the one-year outlook for home price appreciation rose to 2.5%, the highest since July 2022 and a 0.7 percentage point increase from March.

☆ Accessing credit has become harder, Fed’s Beige Book shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

The report captures the effects of last month’s banking turbulence on businesses and banks themselves. “Lending volumes and loan demand generally declined across consumer and business loan types,” the Fed said in its periodic compilation of business survey responses, known as the Beige Book. A tightening in credit conditions was perhaps the biggest change reflected in the latest Beige Book report. While those concerns have largely subsided, many economists feared it would make it harder to access credit. Other banks in the Richmond Fed’s district reported higher inflows of deposits following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the report said.

☆ There's no clear sign of a US credit crunch yet, a top Fed official says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

There's no clear signs of a US credit crunch yet, according to Fed official John Williams. We haven't seen any clear signs yet of credit conditions tightening and we don't know how big those effects will be," he said. The collapse of SVB and Signature Bank has stoked fears that lending standards to obtain a loan will become harder. We haven't seen any clear signs yet of credit conditions tightening and we don't know how big those effects will be," he added at a New York University event Monday. Other commentators have blamed the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes as a key factor in the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank.

☆ Premarket stocks: Wall Street has found something else to worry about
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Retail investors are buying bank stocksTD Ameritrade released its March Investor Movement Index on Monday, which tracks what retail investors are up to. Lately, large companies have begun to change their investor relations strategies to become more retail investor friendly. “March was full of surprises, but the overall impact among TD Ameritrade retail clients when it came to exposure to the markets was neutral,” said Lorraine Gavican-Kerr, managing director at TD Ameritrade. Retail investors, meanwhile, were net sellers of Meta, NVIDIA, Advanced Micro Devises, Intel and Apple. Inflation expectations for the year ahead have increased by half a percentage point to 4.7%, the survey found.

☆ NY Fed survey finds Americans more downbeat on credit access
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Inflation three years from now is seen at 2.8%, from 2.7% the prior month, while five years out, survey respondents said they expected inflation at 2.5%, down from the prior month’s 2.6%. Despite expectations of higher near-term inflation, respondents to the New York Fed survey see lower gasoline, food and rent costs, while they forecast a 1.8% rise in home prices. The rise in inflation expectations could prove to be a new challenge for the Federal Reserve’s effort to lower inflation. Fed rate rises are by design intended to make credit more expensive, so the rise in households reporting trouble in getting loans is not surprising. That said, survey respondents said their current and future financial situations improved in March, amid expectations of both higher household incomes and spending.

☆ Americans are already feeling the effects of a credit crunch
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A Monday New York Fed survey found that Americans' feel like their access to credit is deteriorating. Fed Chair Jerome Powell previously said the banking stress that started with Silicon Valley Bank could trigger a credit crunch. New York Fed Survey of Consumer ExpectationsAdditionally, the survey found that the perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment in the next three months climbed 0.3% to 10.9%. "The credit crunch has started," Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, said in response to the report. Tighter credit conditions means lenders raise the bar for borrowers, and households have to meet stricter parameters to obtain a loan.

☆ Outlook for credit access hits record low while inflation expectations jump, NY Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Wholesale egg prices have begun declining more than 50% since December record highs according to Urner Barry data. Consumers are getting more pessimistic about inflation and their access to credit, according to a survey the New York Federal Reserve released Monday. That's the first time the near-term outlook increased since October and runs counter to the narrative from Fed officials that they expect inflation to subside as a series of interest rate increases take hold. In their most recent economic projections, policymakers said they anticipate inflation including food and energy prices to decline to 2.5% in 2024. The current one-year outlook is down from 6.6% from the same time in 2022, but is running well ahead of the Fed's 2% inflation goal.

☆ Consumers feel credit getting harder to come by, Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Minneapolis CNN —US consumers are starting to feel that credit is getting harder to come by, according to survey results released Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. For the first time since October, US consumers’ year-ahead inflation expectations increased. Near-term inflation expectations increased 0.52 percentage points to 4.7%, according to the New York Fed’s March 2023 Survey of Consumer Expectations. It’s the largest jump in one-year inflation expectations since March of last year. The Fed closely watches measurements of inflation expectations.

☆ NY Fed report shows near-term inflation expectations retreating sharply
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Meanwhile, the expected level of inflation three years from now held steady at 2.7%, matching the level last seen in October 2020, while expected inflation five years from now was seen hitting 2.6%, up from January's 2.5%. The New York Fed survey arrived just ahead of the Fed's March 21-22 policy meeting. The New York Fed report was conducted ahead of the SVB situation and does not reflect its impact. Households last month saw declining price pressures for gasoline, food, rent, medical care and college. But the New York Fed noted that last month's reading remains well below the 12-month average of an expected 3.4% rise in home prices.

☆ Morning Bid: Don't fight central banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman DagaJudging by the improved mood in global equity markets, investors are once again having a go at central banks. Will Powell be able to send a decisive message to markets about the future pace of interest rate increases? Fed, ECB and BoE 'terminal rates' riseThe European Central Bank has already raised rates to 2.5%, a 3 percentage point increase since July and essentially promised another half a percentage point increase on March 16. Strategists at BlackRock Investment Institute expect the trend to end as recent data pushes the European Central Bank to raise rates and keep them higher for longer. And Schroders' analysts are in the camp of those who expect interest rates to be kept on hold by the ECB from March.

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