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☆ Europe could dodge a recession. But the UK economy is in a mess
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

London CNN —Business activity across the 20 countries that use the euro expanded in January for the first time in six months, according to data published Tuesday, providing fresh evidence that Europe’s economy could confound expectations and dodge a recession this year. The UK survey is conducted in conjunction with the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply. “Weaker-than-expected PMI numbers in January underscore the risk of the UK slipping into recession,” Williamson said. The UK economy lost more working days to strikes between June and November 2022 than in any six-month period over the previous 30 years, according to data published last week by Britain’s Office for National Statistics. Separate data published by the ONS on Tuesday showed that UK government borrowing hit £27.4 billion ($33.7 billion) in December, the highest figure for that month since records began in 1993.

☆ U.S. business activity still soft in early 2023, but outlook perks up
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

S&P Global's Flash U.S. Composite Output Index rose to 46.6 in January - with readings below 50 indicating contraction in activity - from a final reading of 45.0 in December. While that was the highest in three months, companies still reported demand was soft and high inflation was a headwind to customer spending. Another quarter-percentage point increase is expected enroute to a policy rate officials see rising above 5% this year. The S&P Global survey's forward-looking indexes did show improved confidence in the outlook, indicating businesses expect the situation to improve later in the year. "The pick-up in positive sentiment was broad-based, with companies hopeful of a resurgence in customer demand as 2023 progresses," it said.

REUTERS/Kamil KrzaczynskiSummary U.S. business activity better than expected, but remains softEuro zone posts surprise return to modest growthBritain PMI falls at fastest rate in two years, surveys showNEW YORK/LONDON Jan 24 (Reuters) - The downturn in U.S. business activity eased slightly in January even as it contracted for the seventh straight month while euro zone business activity made a surprise return to modest growth, as two of the world's major economies hope to avert recession this year, surveys showed on Wednesday. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsEURO ZONE BOUNCES BACKThe Euro zone is showing more resilience. Business activity there made a surprise return to modest growth in January, adding to signs the downturn in the bloc may not be as deep as feared and that the currency union may escape recession. In France, the bloc's second-biggest economy, output fell slightly overall again in January, its PMI showed, but manufacturing activity improved for the first time since August. In the Euro zone, there was mixed news on inflation pressures, according to the PMI survey.

☆ S&P Global Market Intelligence: Fears of soaring inflation and energy crunch alleviating
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailS&P Global Market Intelligence: Fears of soaring inflation and energy crunch alleviatingChris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, discusses the latest euro zone PMI data, consumer demand, and business sentiment in the face of loosening Covid restrictions in China.

☆ Darkest days likely over for euro zone factories, December PMIs show
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Jan 2 (Reuters) - The downturn in euro zone manufacturing activity has likely passed its trough as supply chains begin to recover and inflationary pressures ease, a survey showed on Monday, leading to a rebound in optimism among factory managers. S&P Global's final manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) bounced to 47.8 in December from November's 47.1, matching a preliminary reading but still below the 50 mark separating growth from contraction. "Prospects have brightened amid signs of healing supply chains and a marked softening of inflationary pressures, as well as a calming of concerns over the region's energy crisis, thanks in part to government assistance." With inflationary pressures easing, supply chains healing and an energy crisis likely averted purchasing managers turned optimistic and the future output index jumped to 53.8 from 48.8. Reporting by Jonathan Cable; Editing by Hugh LawsonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ UK downturn moderates in December but recession begins - PMI
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Andy Bruce | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The UK S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose unexpectedly to 49.0 from 48.2 in November, although it remained below the 50 threshold for growth. Separate data on Friday showed a surprise fall in retail sales in November, while consumer confidence remained close to all-time lows this month. "The releases still point to the UK being in a shallow, but protracted, recession at the end of 2022 and into 2023," said Daniel Mahoney, UK economist at Handelsbanken. S&P Global said the PMI was consistent with a roughly 0.3% drop in economic output in the fourth quarter. The manufacturing PMI slid to 44.7 from 46.5, marking its lowest level since May 2020 - during the depths of the first COVID-19 lockdown.

☆ Euro zone likely heading into mild recession - PMI
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Dec 5 (Reuters) - Euro zone business activity declined for a fifth month in November, suggesting the economy was sliding into a mild recession as consumers cut spending amid surging inflation, a survey showed. S&P Global's final composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the euro zone, seen as a good guide to economic health, nudged up to 47.8 in November from October's 23-month low of 47.3, matching a preliminary estimate. "A fifth consecutive monthly falling output signalled by the PMI adds to the likelihood that the euro zone is sliding into recession," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. Still, the input and output prices index both fell suggesting inflationary pressures may have already peaked, likely welcome news to policymakers at the European Central Bank. The output prices index was a 3-month low of 62.3.

☆ I oversaw hiring at Microsoft. Here's the one interview question that makes or breaks job candidates — and what I looked for in an answer.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Chris Williams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

He always asks job candidates to tell him something they've learned recently. A person who will promptly learn what they need to and help others by sharing what they've learned. A great candidate will have a ready answerMaybe they've learned how to format pivot tables in Excel. They will make it easy to share what they've learned. It doesn't happen often; most people have something they've learned, something they can share.

☆ UK PMI sticks near 21-month low as orders weaken
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

PMI readings below 50 represent economic contraction, and economists polled by Reuters had expected the flash PMI to fall again this month to 47.5. IHS Markit said that aside from the pandemic, the UK PMI was now pointing to the biggest quarterly fall in economic output since early 2009, during the global financial crisis, with a drop of 0.4%. The PMI showed new orders fell at the fastest rate since January 2021 and that employment growth had slowed. However, firms reported the weakest inflation pressures in more than a year, although they remained high by historic standards. Reporting by David Milliken; Editing by Toby ChopraOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Euro zone downturn eased in Nov but demand still falling - PMI
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Nov 23 (Reuters) - The downturn in euro zone business activity eased slightly in November but overall demand continued to decline as consumers cut spending amid a cost of living crisis, a survey showed on Wednesday. However, November is the fifth month the index has been below the 50 mark separating growth from contraction. "A further fall in business activity in November adds to the chances of the euro zone economy slipping into recession," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. The services employment index fell to 51.7 from 52.5. The output prices index fell to 63.7 from 66.1, its lowest reading since March 2021.

Meanwhile, the downturn in euro zone business activity eased slightly in November, offering a glimmer of hope the expected recession there may be shallower than feared, but consumers still cut spending amid a cost of living crisis. However, November is the fifth month the index has been below the 50 mark separating growth from contraction. But in France activity contracted for the first time since February 2021 as lower new orders weighed on the euro zone's second-biggest economy. Activity in the bloc's dominant services industry declined again, with the headline index matching October's 20-month low of 48.6. Manufacturing activity, particularly hard hit by soaring energy prices and disrupted supply chains, also declined but at a slower pace.

☆ Microsoft's ex-VP of HR: Never go back to a company that fired you, but a layoff is a different story. Here's what to consider before returning.
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Chris Williams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

But if the layoff was done with some concern for your wellbeing, think about a return. If your departure was portrayed by the company as a termination, do not go back. If the departure was a layoff: whether you should return depends on how it was handled. If the layoff was done with thought and care, person-to-person, and with some concern for your wellbeing, think about a return. In the end, the question of returning to a company that let you go depends entirely on whether they treated you well in the departure.

☆ I'm Microsoft's former VP of HR. The smartest candidates are masters at 'flipping the interview' using these 3 questions.
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Chris Williams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Asking great questions will not only help you learn more about the company, you'll make a stronger impression as a thoughtful and confident candidate. The candidates who leave the strongest impressions are those who not only answer questions well, but ask great questions too. Instead, they'll ask "tell me about a time when…" to elicit a real event and hear how you handled it. So when it comes time for you to ask questions, do the same thing: flip the interview by asking very good questions in return. Rather than being put off, most interviewers and even recruiters will be impressed that you ask such great questions.

☆ European Central Bank raises rates by three quarters of a point and promises more to come
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

London CNN Business —The European Central Bank hiked interest rates by three quarters of a percentage point on Thursday, promising further hikes to come as it tackles rising inflation. The central bank has now hiked rates at three consecutive meetings by a combined 2 percentage points in a bid to get control of inflation even as a recession looms. “Inflation remains far too high and will stay above the target for an extended period,” the ECB said in a statement. An energy crisis, sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has weighed heavily on sectors such as manufacturing. With today’s rate hike, the ECB has come very close to the point at which normal could become restrictive,” he wrote in a research note.

☆ Political chaos tips British firms into deeper slide - PMIs
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, Oct 24 (Reuters) - British businesses are suffering their worst month since January 2021, when they were under a COVID-19 lockdown, as the country's political upheavals compound concerns about inflation and rising interest rates, a survey showed on Monday. German business activity declined at a faster rate than in Britain, although France fared better than both. "More evidence of economic weakness, combined with signs of less heated inflationary pressures, should, all else equal, tone down the (BoE's) appetite to raise interest rates substantially in its November meeting," Beck said. Truss has said she will resign once her successor is chosen at the end of this week. "As night follows day, investment and employment will suffer in the months ahead as companies adjust to the increasingly challenging environment," Williamson said.

☆ Fears of a severe recession deepen as European business activity slows on surging energy costs
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Business sentiment in the euro area dropped once again ahead of an ECB meeting where President Christine Lagarde is expected to raise rates again. European business activity took another hit in the month of October, reporting the steepest output loss since April 2013 excluding pandemic lockdowns. Firms have been under pressure due to higher inflation, particularly coming from energy costs and wage pressures. Manufacturing activity led the losses, but services output also dropped for a third consecutive month. In terms of national breakdown, business activity in Germany came in at 44.1, versus 45.7 in the previous month.

☆ U.S. business activity weakens again in October -S&P Global survey
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

S&P Global said on Monday its flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, fell to 47.3 this month from a final reading of 49.5 in September. "The decline was led by a downward lurch in services activity, fueled by the rising cost of living and tightening financial conditions." But the S&P Global survey may exaggerate the slowdown. The survey's flash manufacturing PMI fell to 49.9 this month, its first contractionary reading since June 2020, from 52.0 in September. The survey's flash services sector PMI fell to 46.6 from 49.3 in September.

☆ Pound holds ground as Rishi Sunak leads race to become UK prime minister
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

London CNN Business —Britain’s third prime minister in seven weeks will face the huge challenge of projecting stability after a period of historic political and financial market chaos. Rishi Sunak emerged over the weekend as the clear front-runner in the dramatic race to replace Liz Truss, who’s set to be the shortest-serving prime minister in UK history. “A key focus for the next Prime Minister and their chosen Chancellor needs to be fiscal responsibility,” Carl Emmerson, deputy director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said in a statement. An economy in recessionThe Bank of England forecast last month that the UK economy was already in recession. 10 Downing Street, investors and economists expect the revamped economic plan outlined by current finance minister Jeremy Hunt to remain intact.

☆ A former Microsoft VP shares 4 ways to win over senior executives and nail a high-stakes presentation
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( Chris Williams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Chris Williams is a former VP of HR at Microsoft and a podcaster, consultant, and TikTok creator. Whether it's a formal presentation, a simple meeting, or even a casual encounter, it can be overwhelming. In my presentation, I stated a clear case: "We had become dependent on a constant rise in stock prices as a means of compensation. One long-time board member asked me, "To be clear, you're changing the entire compensation package for every employee in the company?" In my compensation presentation, I had vastly overestimated the need for explanation.

☆ Microsoft's former VP of HR shares the types of employees who are most likely to be laid off
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( Jordan Parker Erb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Compassionate Eye Foundation/Martin Barraud/OJO Images Ltd / Getty Images1. Who's most at risk during layoffs? Contract workers: At the highest risk are contract employees, which companies use for this very contingency. They want to remain flexible in case of a downturn, and as such, contract employees are usually the first ones out. Special interest groups representing Big Tech companies oppose possible crypto regulation in California. Cryptocurrency companies may soon be required to get a license to operate in the state, and industry groups representing Amazon, Apple, Meta, and other tech companies wrote to the state assembly opposing the law.

☆ UK downturn deepens, raising recession risk -flash PMI
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Released just as finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng was due to flesh out the economic agenda of new Prime Minister Liz Truss, the S&P Global/CIPS flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 48.4 from 49.6 in August. It marked the lowest reading since the COVID-19 lockdown of January last year. The PMI for the services sector fell to 49.2 in September from 50.9 in August, the weakest reading since January 2021. While the manufacturing PMI rose to 48.5 from 47.3, much of the improvement reflected a worsening supply chain performance, which in normal times reflects shortages due to strong demand but not this time. Despite the pound falling to 37-year lows against the dollar, export orders contracted in both the manufacturing and service sectors, S&P Global said.

☆ I'm Microsoft's former VP of HR. Here are the 3 types of employees most at risk during layoffs — and the 2 that are safest.
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Chris Williams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

It can difficult to judge your layoff risk, but those close to profits are not typically targeted. If you're an essential part of building the most profitable product for your company, your layoff risk is low. 1 most at risk: Contract workersAt the extreme end of the risk spectrum are contract employees. Judging your layoff risk in these inbetween roles can be difficult. Keep your résumé updated regardless of your layoff riskRegardless of your layoff risk, keeping your résumé up-to-date is always good advice.

☆ As the former Microsoft VP of HR I can assure you that HR is not your friend. Here's where you should go instead if you're having workplace issues.
▼ + stars: | 2022-08-11 | by ( Chris Williams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

I'm the former vice president of human resources at Microsoft and I can tell you it shouldn't be HR. HR is not your friendDo not see your team's HR representative as a friend. But from my experience as an HR exec, I can assure you that the company did not have over 1,000 people in HR to be your friend. For work-related issues, once you've reported any company policy violations to HR, I strongly recommend you go outside your organization. Chris Williams is a leadership advisor, podcaster, TikTok creator, author, and former VP of HR at Microsoft.

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