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☆ China establishes mortgage rate adjustment mechanism for some home buyers
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BEIJING, Jan 5 (Reuters) - China's central bank and the banking and insurance regulator have established a dynamic adjustment mechanism on mortgage rates for first-time home buyers, the central bank said on Thursday, in a bid to further support the property sector. The crisis in China's property market, once a pillar of the world's second-biggest economy, worsened last summer with home prices, sales and investment all falling sharply. According to analysts' calculation, 38 cities are eligible for adjustable mortgage rate floors, including some second-tier cities such as Wuhan and Zhengzhou and more than 20 smaller cities. Analysts said the move shows the government's growing intent to support demand in weak cities, but added the impact may be limited. "Lowering mortgage rates has not been able to drive sales.

Property investment in November fell the fastest since the statistics bureau began compiling data in 2000, down 19.9% on year. "Although property sales and starts will likely be slightly weaker than in 2022, property will be much less of a drag on the economy than in 2022." Reuters GraphicsHOUSING DEMANDShares in embattled Chinese property developers have gained 86% since the trough in October, buoyed by a string of property easing measures and the COVID policy u-turn. "We may be close to see some bottoming out in housing demand …but I don't think we're quite there yet," he said. The latest China Beige Book private economic survey was more blunt: "But forget a return to days of old: it will take considerable policy support in 2023 just to pull property out of the gutter."

☆ Jack Ma's Alibaba, China tech giants are making a comeback post zero Covid
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Hong Kong CNN —Chinese tech giants are witnessing a dream start to the year. US-listed shares of Chinese e-commerce firms Alibaba (BABA), JD.com (JD) and Pinduoduo (PDD) added $53 billion to their combined market value on Wednesday. The surge comes as investors are feeling optimistic that Chinese regulators will go easy on tech firms this year and also introduce measures to boost growth in the industry. The change in sentiment comes after Jack Ma’s Ant Group won a key approval for capital expansion. Chinese tech companies have faced a sweeping regulatory crackdown since late 2020, which drove investors away.

☆ China's holiday home sales rise 27.1% y/y - private survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Among 22 cities selected by the China Index Academy, the average daily floor area of homes sold rose 27.1% from last year's holiday season. The firm also said major cities such as Beijing and Shanghai saw a rise in sales compared with last year's New Year holiday but sentiment remained at low level in most small cities. Compared with last year's holiday season, home sales rose 80% in Beijing, 74% in Shanghai and 131.5% in Guangzhou. China's property market crisis worsened in 2022, with official data showing home prices, sales and investment all falling in recent months, putting more pressure on the faltering economy. New-home prices in the 100 Chinese cities monitored by the firm fell 0.02% year-on-year in 2022, the first decline since 2015, the real estate research firm said.

Reuters Graphics3/ RE-EMERGING MARKETSWhisper it, but the emerging markets (EM) bulls are back after 2022 delivered some of the biggest losses on record. Credit Suisse particularly likes hard currency debt and DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach, AKA the "bond king", has EM stocks as his top pick. Economists polled by Reuters expect headline U.S. inflation to decelerate to 3.1% by the end of 2023. Valentine Ainouz, fixed income strategist at the Amundi Institute, predicts the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will end 2023 at 3.5% from around 3.88% currently. Reuters Graphics5/ EQUITIES: SELL NOW, BUY LATEREquity investors hope a V-shaped year for the global economy will see stocks end it comfortably higher.

☆ China home prices fall at faster pace in December - private survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BEIJING, Jan 1(Reuters) - China's home prices fell at a faster pace in December, according to a private survey on Sunday, reflecting persistently weak demand amid rising COVID-19 cases despite a slew of support measures. China's property market crisis worsened this summer, with official data showing home prices, sales and investment all falling in recent months, adding pressure on the faltering economy. Home prices in 100 cities fell for the sixth month in a row in December, declining 0.08% from a month earlier after falling 0.06% in November, according to the survey by China Index Academy (CIA), one of the country's largest independent real estate research firms. Among the 100 cities, 68 cities posted a fall in monthly prices, compared with 57 in November, the survey showed. "Real estate policies may continue to maintain an accommodative tone with room for policy easing on the supply and demand side in 2023," said the real estate research firm, adding "the housing market is expected to stabilize gradually next year."

☆ China's home prices fell at an accelerating rate in December, survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Home prices in 100 cities fell for the sixth month in a row in December, according to a private Chinese survey. China's home prices fell at a faster pace in December, according to a private survey on Sunday, reflecting persistently weak demand amid rising Covid-19 cases despite a slew of support measures. China's property market crisis worsened this summer, with official data showing home prices, sales and investment all falling in recent months, adding pressure on the faltering economy. Among the 100 cities, 68 cities posted a fall in monthly prices, compared with 57 in November, the survey showed. But the virus is now spreading largely unchecked and likely infecting millions of people a day, according to some international health experts.

☆ China’s Covid Easing and Policy Pivots Brighten Outlook for Stocks
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Weilun Soon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The clouds over Chinese stocks are clearing after two years of steep losses. The MSCI China Index, which tracks Chinese companies listed in the U.S., Hong Kong and the mainland, dropped 24% in the year through Dec. 29, after declining by a similar magnitude in 2021. That caps one of the longest periods of underperformance for stocks from the world’s second-largest economy, which has been weighed down by its Covid-19 restrictions, a real-estate downturn and regulatory crackdowns in the private sector.

☆ CSOP Asset Management discusses ETF listing on the Singapore Exchange
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAsset management firm explains how its SGX ETF listing would differ from its other China index fundsDing Chen of CSOP Asset Management says it's a "significant milestone" between Singapore's and China's capital markets.

☆ Premarket stocks: Wall Street's dirty secret: It's terrible at forecasting stocks
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

What’s happening: Last year, Goldman Sachs analysts predicted that the S&P 500 would close out 2022 at 5,100 points. With those caveats, let’s get to Wall Street’s predictionsThe numbers: Forecasts for where the S&P 500 will finish 2023 vary greatly. Analysts overestimated the final value (that is, the final value finished below the estimate) in 13 of the 20 years and underestimated the final value (the final value finished above the estimate) in the other 7 years. They’re on track to have overestimated the performance of the S&P 500 in 2022 by nearly 40%. During this period, the S&P 500 has historically gained 1.3% on average, according to data from LPL Financial going back to 1950.

☆ Inflation was 2022's big theme. These could be next year's megatrends
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-26 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This year, markets have been ruled by hot inflation, with investors flocking to stocks that benefit from rising prices. "The surge in inflation has been a dominant—if not the dominant—financial market theme of 2022," said Wells Fargo in a note, noting that global consumer inflation accelerated to multi-decade highs. "Globally, we see inflation peaking in 4Q this year, with disinflation driving the narrative next year," said Morgan Stanley in its 2023 Global Economics Outlook report. Wells Fargo expects global consumer price index inflation to "slow meaningfully" to 5.2% in 2023 from a projected 7.2% this year. But Europe, including the U.K., could be the exception — the bank expects that the effects of rapid inflation and rising rates there will "linger for some time."

HONG KONG, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Asia's hedge funds are heading for their worst showing in a dozen years, with long-short stockpickers wrongfooted by volatility in China, while macro strategy funds riding big global shifts in interest rates shine. On average, Asian hedge funds fared better than the indexes, losing 9.1% through to end-November, Eurekahedge data showed. By strategy, Asia equity long-short funds lost 12% and Greater China long-short funds lost 14%, while Asia macro funds rose 12% and Asia multi-strategy rose 1%. Big picture macro funds, which trade on economic and political shifts, also performed well, as U.S.-China tension and rising interest rates roiled financial markets. Long positions in U.S. government debt and the Singapore dollar also helped through November when many macro managers were caught out by a sudden drop in the U.S. dollar.

☆ FTSE Russell, Ping An jointly launch China ESG indexes
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SHANGHAI, Dec 8 (Reuters) - Global index publisher FTSE Russell and Chinese financial conglomerate Ping An announced a partnership on Thursday to promote sustainable investment, launching a series of China indexes integrating environmental, social and government (ESG) considerations. The FTSE Ping An China ESG Index Series, which combines Ping An's China-specific ESG approach into FTSE Russell's China indexes, shows how Chinese and western institutions can join hands in sustainable investment, despite tensions over sensitive areas such as human rights and Communist Party control. The initial index launch will target onshore investors, but the multi-year partnership aims to ultimately serve international investors as well, said FTSE Russell, a unit of London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG.L). "It's really about leveraging the market-specific insights" that Ping An brings, said Helena Fung, Head of Sustainable Investment, APAC at FTSE Russell. In China, however, internet censorship is not factored into ESG considerations by domestic institutions.

☆ Expect Chinese stocks to rally hard now that Beijing has set a 'clear path' to reopening, Morgan Stanley says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Morgan Stanley upgraded its outlook for China equities and expects a move toward ending zero-COVID controls to boost stocks. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index could rally 13% from its current level by the end of 2023, strategists said. That could lift the Hong Kong Hang Seng index 13% and lead to MSCI's China Index jumping 14% as a revival in demand leads to companies posting stronger earnings, according to Morgan Stanley. But that doesn't mean investors should pile into Chinese stocks right now — with the impact of the economic reopening likely to lag until the second quarter of next year, according to Morgan Stanley. Official confirmation of that trip would likely further lift the market's view on Chinese equities, strategists said.

☆ Morgan Stanley turns bullish on China stocks, giving them serious upside potential
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Morgan Stanley has turned bullish on China stocks for the first time in nearly two years as the country embarks on a "clear path set towards reopening." It had held its equal weight rating on Chinese stocks since Jan. 2021 and was last overweight on China in March 2020. Morgan Stanley also gave the major Chinese stock indexes large potential upsides. Morgan Stanley recommended investing in offshore Chinese stocks. Stocks set to benefit Morgan Stanley highlighted a list of stocks it said are set to benefit from the easing in China.

Goldman Sachs forecasts 16% index returns for MSCI China (.dMICN00000PUS) and CSI300 (.CSI300) next year and recommends an overweight allocation to China, while J.P.Morgan expects a 10% potential upside in MSCI China in 2023. Morgan Stanley upgraded its recommendation to overweight on Monday with an increase in exposure to consumer stocks as reopening prospects improve. Bank of America Securities turned bullish in November, with its China equity strategist, Winnie Wu picking internet and financial stocks to lead the short-term rebound. "We have experienced several rounds of policy back and forth in 2022," she added, referring to both COVID and property policies. UBS Global Wealth Management recommends a market-neutral allocation to Chinese stocks.

Dec 2 (Reuters) - Analysts have upgraded forecasts for Chinese corporate earnings in 2023, on expectations that its economy will benefit from stimulus measures and the easing of COVID-19 restrictions. Analysts raised forward 12-month earnings of companies on the MSCI China index (.dMICN00000PUS) by 2% in November, data from IBES estimates showed. They had earlier cut the forward 12-month earnings by 15% between January and October this year on concerns over slowing growth. We forecast earnings growth of 15%-20% for MSCI China, which would be underpinned by lower commodity prices, improved economic growth and lower asset write-downs," said James Wong, strategist at UBS. Breakdown by country for Asian companies' earnings growth in 2023China's COVID-19 cases remain near record highs.

☆ Assessing China: What political unrest means for ETF investors
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Kevin Schmidt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Global markets pulled back earlier this week after protests across China erupted over the country's zero-Covid policy. And with the SPDR S&P China ETF (GXC) down 30% this year, there's a growing debate on whether China makes a good investment now given the political risks. "Where value stocks are international stocks right now, value stocks are Chinese equities. On the flip side, China shares the U.S., like KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) and iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) , have started to move higher and Monday and continued to log gains. Adding context to the notion that China has underperformed, Ahern said that only 2% of the MSCI China Index was composed of tech decade ago.

☆ A house price slump is coming. Rising unemployment could make it much worse
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

Brendon O'Hagan/Bloomberg/Getty ImagesNew Zealand is at the sharp end of a global housing market squeeze that has grim ramifications for the world economy. “In an ideal world, you’ll get a bit of froth blown off the top [of house prices] and everything is fine. “A decisive increase in unemployment is a very big danger for housing markets,” said Slater of Oxford Economics. Qilai Shen/Bloomberg/Getty ImagesA drag on the economyMost market watchers are not expecting a repeat of the 2008 housing market crash. But even a modest a fall in house prices will knock confidence, causing homeowners to cut back on spending.

☆ China's property prices to rise in 2023, sales to fall more slowly
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"Property measures are expected to strengthen support, which will improve residents' confidence." A recent slew of support measures, including loan repayment extensions, aimed at improving liquidity in the property sector has underpinned market sentiment. But analysts and economists in the poll expected concerns about falling house prices, protracted COVID restrictions, and delays in construction to continue to weigh on demand. Property sales were seen slumping 5.0% in the first half of 2023, a smaller drop than the 15.0% fall forecast in the September poll. Some analysts say average house prices will need to fall by around 20% to 30% to entice demand.

☆ Global investors are bullish again on China as Beijing switches to damage control
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

A key index of Chinese stocks in New York jumped 15% during the same period. Some investment banks even upgraded their China growth forecasts following the policy changes. They want to correct the market’s perception of China’s economic outlook, as President Xi Jinping interacts with global leaders at G20,” it said. “I don’t think the long-term appetite for China and Hong Kong shares will return so quickly. The Nasdaq Golden China Index, a popular index tracking Chinese companies in New York, has plunged more than 33% so far in 2022.

☆ China's real estate crisis could be over with new rescue plan. Property stocks are soaring
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Hong Kong CNN Business —Chinese authorities are making their biggest effort yet to end a crisis in the country’s vast real estate sector that has weighed heavily on the economy over the past year. Tao Wang, chief China economist at UBS, described the package of measures as a “turning point” for China’s property sector. Along with other policies announced earlier this year, it could inject more than 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion) into real estate, she estimated. In October, sales by the 100 biggest real estate developers contracted 26.5% from a year ago, according to a private survey by China Index Academy, a top real estate research firm. “Beijing’s zero-Covid strategy, despite some latest fine tuning, will continue to weigh on the property sector,” they added.

☆ Goldman Sachs says buy these stocks ahead of a $2.6 trillion China reopening boom
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Zavier Ong | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This would be a boon for the stock market, according to Lau, who estimates that a full reopening could drive 20% upside for Chinese stocks. "While the reopening roadmap is still unclear, our reopening beneficiaries have outperformed the [MSCI China Index] by 20% since July," he said. Reopening beneficiaries The bank's list of reopening beneficiaries comprises 30 names it says are "well placed" to gain from the easing of social distancing and travel curbs. Here's what it found A third of the bank's list of reopening beneficiaries is made up of companies in the hotels, restaurants and leisure sectors. The stocks include casino operators Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China , food chain Yum China , as well as Trip.com .

The same funds averaged a decline of 0.58% in 2021, according to the HSBC data seen by Reuters. HSBC follows eight funds which take long and short positions in Chinese equities. This year, three hit HSBC's global list of the bottom 20 hedge fund performances for the week ending Nov. 4. The $1.9 billion Golden China fund from Greenwoods Asset Management, was down 45% for the year to Oct. 31; the $152 million Zeal China Fund from Zeal Asset Management, was down 38% for the same period; and the $156 million Telligent Greater China fund from Telligent Capital down almost 40%. HFR, another company which tracks hedge fund performance but does not disclose the constituents of its indices, said its index of Chinese hedge funds was down 27% so far this year.

☆ China property slump persists in October with falling prices, sales as COVID bites
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s property market continued its slump in October, with private data showing home prices and sales falling, suggesting lacklustre sentiment and a bleak outlook amid strict COVID curbs, which hit consumer confidence. Property sales by floor area in 100 cities fell about 20% year-on-year in October, according to a separate statement by the academy. Analyst Chen Wenjing at the research firm said property recovery depends on COVID containment measures and the strength of policies. Any rebound in the real estate market is expected to be delayed if the country sticks with strict COVID restrictions to quell the repeated coronavirus outbreaks, Chen said. Home sales by floor area in Shanghai and Guangzhou fell 35% and 26% in annual terms, respectively.

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