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Private sector job growth expanded in March at its fastest pace since July 2023, indicating continuing buoyance in the U.S. labor market, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday. Those switching jobs saw gains of 10%, also higher than in previous months. ADP, whose survey is based on payroll data analysis of more than 25 million workers, does not track government jobs. The ADP estimate serves as a precursor to the Labor Department's nonfarm payrolls survey, set to be released Friday, though the numbers often diverge sharply. The department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported job growth of 275,000 in February, or 120,000 more than even ADP's revised figure.
Persons: Dow Jones, Nela Richardson Organizations: Companies, Labor, department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S
The Central Bank of Russia is maintaining a 16% interest rate due to a thriving economy. AdvertisementRussia's economy is running so hot the Central Bank of Russia is holding rates at 16% to keep inflation in check. Even the Russian central bank appeared to be taken aback by how well the economy was doing. Consumer sentiment is also positive and people are increasingly inclined to make large purchases, according to the Russian central bank. On Friday, Russia's central bank said it sees limited options other than the Chinese yuan for its reserves.
Persons: , Elvira Nabiullina Organizations: Central Bank of Russia, Service, International Monetary Fund Locations: Russian, Ukraine, Russia, Russia's
US President Joe Biden and China's leader Xi Jinping spoke in a Tuesday phone call. The leaders discussed global conflicts, including China's support for Russia amid the Ukraine war. Russia has managed to maintain its economy thanks in part to its trade partnership with China. AdvertisementUS President Joe Biden warned China's leader Xi Jinping about his government's ongoing support for Russia amid the war in Ukraine during a Tuesday phone call between the two world leaders. AdvertisementDespite alienating itself from the majority of the world, Russia continues to maintain an economic ally in China, whose ongoing support has helped Russia rebuild its defense industry during a vital moment in the war.
Persons: Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, , China's, Biden, Xi, Vladimir Putin, Putin Organizations: Service, Central Bank of, Beijing Locations: Russia, Ukraine, China, California, India, Beijing, Central Bank of Russia, Taiwan, South China, Israel, Gaza, Bali
Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said Tuesday she still expects interest rate cuts this year, but ruled out the next policy meeting in May. Should that continue, rate cuts are likely, though she didn't offer any guidance on timing or extent. While looking for rate cuts, Mester said she thinks the long-run federal funds rate will be higher than the long-standing expectation of 2.5%. After the March meeting, the long-rate rate projection moved up to 2.6%, indicating there are other members leaning higher. Mester noted the rate was very low when the Covid pandemic hit and gave the Fed little wiggle room to boost the economy.
Persons: Loretta Mester, Mester Organizations: Cleveland Federal, Market Locations: Cleveland
Russia's central bank says it has few alternatives other than the Chinese yuan as a key reserve asset. "These factors predetermine the key role of the Chinese yuan in the formation of reserve assets," it said. AdvertisementA state of increasing isolationRussia's increasing reliance on the yuan shows its economy is becoming increasingly isolated in the international trade and finance system. Moscow's reliance on the Chinese yuan comes with risks. Russian companies that borrow in the Chinese yuan are facing increased lending costs, Bloomberg reported last month.
Persons: , Vladimir Putin, SWIFT Organizations: Service, Central Bank of Russia, Bloomberg Locations: Russia, Russian, Ukraine, India, China, Moscow, EU
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by less than one basis point to 4.2415%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was last at 4.6013% after rising by less than one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields held steady on Wednesday as investors considered the economic outlook and looked to fresh data. Investors looked to the latest data and remarks from Federal Reserve officials as they weighed the outlook for the economy. No key data is slated for Wednesday, but Fed Governor Christopher Waller is expected to give remarks later in the day.
Persons: Christopher Waller Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve
The Central Bank of Nigeria on Tuesday hiked its key interest rate by 200 basis points, as Africa's largest economy looks to recover from a historic currency crisis and soaring inflation. The CBN announced that its main monetary policy rate would rise to 24.75% from 22.75%, in its second consecutive hike after February's 400 basis point increase. Governor Olayemi Cardoso told a press conference that policymakers believed they need to continue tightening in order to tame runaway inflation, according to Reuters. "That may be a sign that some MPC members are concerned about the impact on growth from tighter monetary policy," he suggested in a note on Tuesday. Capital Economics expects further tightening, given Governor Cardoso's need to bring down the curtain on the country's inflation and currency crises.
Persons: Olayemi Cardoso, David Omojomolo, Cardoso's Organizations: Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, Reuters, Capital Economics, MPC Locations: Africa
The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank look poised to make "major progress" in cutting interest rates this year, according to the central bank of central banks. BIS serves as a bank and forum for national central banks, and as such has close understanding of their monetary policies. During its March meeting, the ECB held interest rates steady, but hinted at a June rate cut as it trimmed its annual inflation forecast. The Fed and the Bank of England are expected to shine future light on their plans for interest rates during their monetary policy meetings this week. The Bank of Japan is meanwhile predicted to lift interest rates on Tuesday, according to a Reuters poll, marking a major turn in its nearly two-decade-long cycle of negative interest rates.
Persons: Carstens, Annette Weisbach, disinflation, Philip Lane, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, BoE Organizations: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank for International, CNBC, BIS, ECB, Bank of England, Goldman, Bank of Japan
There's little doubt Putin, 71, will win, even as the Ukraine war drags into its third year, analysts say. After all, his challengers — who were approved to run by the country's election commission — are far from his level of clout and influence. But for Putin, merely winning has never been enough — and 2024 looks no different. Putin needs to show that Russians really want him to leadFor Putin, it's not about winning. As Thomas Graham, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote on March 7, "Just winning has never been enough for Putin.
Persons: , There's, Putin, it's, It's, Thomas Graham, David Szakonyi, Elvira Nabiullina, Nabiullina, they're, Vladimir Putin Organizations: Service, Business, International Monetary Fund, Council, Foreign Relations, George Washington University, Profit, Central Bank of Russia, Putin Locations: Ukraine, Russian, Policymaking, Russia, Polish
Currency market subdued ahead of fresh U.S. economic data
  + stars: | 2024-03-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The currency market was sedate on Thursday, with the U.S. dollar consolidating against major peers as market players awaited more data out of the world's largest economy for clues on the direction of Federal Reserve policy. With the Fed widely expected to hold rates steady at its meeting next week, attention will be on the bank's updated economic projections. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, was mostly flat at 102.77. Sources told Reuters that Japan's central bank will debate ending negative rates next week if big firms' wage talks yield strong results. Elsewhere, the euro was holding steady against the dollar at $1.0949, ahead of remarks by several European Central Bank officials on Thursday.
Persons: Kyle Rodda, Jerome Powell, Sterling, bitcoin Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Fed, U.S ., PPI, Bank, Reuters, European Central Bank Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, U.S
According to Peach, sanctions haven't halted money from non-Western countries flowing to Russia. Even G7's bid to curb export income through a $60 per barrel cap on the price of oil hasn't really hobbled Moscow's oil trade. The West has reduced imports of Russian energy significantly but Russia has largely re-routed oil exports to Asia." Peach wrote that the West could squeeze Russian energy more by slapping secondary sanctions on third-party purchases of oil and gas from the country. AdvertisementBut it's unlikely for the West to take this path, he added, given Russia's energy dominance and the risk of sparking volatility that could end up antagonizing partners like India.
Persons: , Vladimir Putin, Owen Matthews ,, Putin, Liam Peach, Peach, Matthews, Russia mobilizes Organizations: Service, Business, Capital Economics, Export, Central Bank of Russia, Russia, China Goods Trade, SA Locations: Ukraine, Moscow, Russia, Nord, Turkey, UAE, Asia, Europe, Russian, China, Dubai, American, India
New York CNN —Wall Street was taken aback by the US labor market’s resilience in January. Another unexpectedly hot report could shake things up again. The January jobs report showed that the US economy added a stunning 353,000 jobs that month and the unemployment rate stayed at 3.7%. The new EU regulations force sweeping changes on some of the world’s most widely used tech products, including Apple’s app store, Google search and messaging platforms, including Meta’s WhatsApp. The broad obligations apply only to the EU, which could leave tech users in the United States and other markets looking longingly at some of the features Big Tech is rolling out in response to the European directive.
Persons: Jerome Powell, he’s, , ” Powell, Bonnie Cash, , ’ ”, BeiChen Lin, It’s, Loretta Mester, , José Torres, Meta’s, Brian Fung, Apple, Bing, Read, Elisabeth Buchwald, NYCB, Steven Mnuchin’s, Alessandro DiNello, ” Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal, Financial, Capitol, Reuters, Traders, Russell Investments, ” Cleveland Federal, CNBC, Market, Interactive Brokers, Apple, Google, Union citizens, Big Tech, New York Community Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Liberty Strategic Capital Locations: New York, Washington ,, United States, NYCB, Silicon
IBADAN, Nigeria - Feb. 19, 2024: Demonstrators hold placards during a protest against the hike in price and hard living conditions in Ibadan on February 19, 2024. Inflation hit an annual 29.9% in January, driven by soaring food prices that have triggered a cost-of-living crisis in Africa's largest economy. The naira currency, meanwhile, plunged to an all-time low of around 1,600 against the U.S. dollar in late February. "With about 8 percent of Nigerians deemed food insecure, addressing rising food insecurity is the immediate policy priority." IBADAN, Nigeria - Feb. 19, 2024: Demonstrators are seen at a protest against the hike in price and hard living conditions in Ibadan on February 19, 2024.
Persons: Samuel Alabi, Bola Tinubu's, David Omojomolo, Olayemi Cardoso Organizations: Afp, Getty Images, International Monetary Fund, U.S, Bloomberg, Getty, Washington, D.C, IMF, Central Bank of, Capital Economics Locations: IBADAN, Nigeria, Ibadan, Getty Images Nigeria, Africa's, LAGOS, Lagos, Africa
The Fed's over-dependence on data risks financial instability, Mohamed El-Erian wrote in a recent op-ed for Bloomberg. He says the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve's strict adherence to data is sapping it of policy alternatives, economist Mohamed El-Erian wrote for Bloomberg on Friday. Many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. He expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged through 2024, citing that neither inflation nor the US economy is sufficiently cooling.
Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, , Torsten Slok Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Fed
With markets on edge over the direction of inflation, a report Thursday that often flies under the economic radar is likely to take on more importance. The Commerce Department's measure of personal consumption expenditures prices could add to evidence that inflation is stickier than some economists and policymakers had thought. Two-year inflation breakevens, or the difference between Treasury yields and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, have surged in recent days. "But I think the labor market is a lot more fragile than people think. A report Wednesday confirmed that economic growth was solid to close out 2023, with fourth-quarter GDP accelerating at a 3.2% annualized pace adjusted for seasonal factors and inflation.
Persons: Mark Zandi, Zandi, shouldn't, we're, it's, , Susan Collins, Collins, Dow Jones, Dow, Michelle Cluver, Cluver, I've Organizations: Moody's, Boston, Securities, Treasury, Fed, Labor, CPI, Dow Jones, optimist Locations: U.S
Russia's economy appears resilient amid its war with Ukraine which has entered its third year. Military spending has reached 40% of Russia's budget, overshadowing social spending. AdvertisementDespite sweeping Western sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine, Russia posted a GDP growth of 3.6% in 2023 after contracting 1.2% in 2022. Experts say Russia's growth is driven primarily by war spending and subsidies. An International Monetary Fund official told CNBC earlier this month that Russia's economy is starting to look like the Soviet Union's.
Persons: , Putin, Mark Harrison, Harrison, Alexandra Prokopenko Organizations: Guardian, Military, Service, Warwick University, Monetary Fund, Foreign Affairs, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Center of Eastern European, International, International Monetary Fund, CNBC Locations: Ukraine, Moscow, Russia, Russian, Soviet Union, Soviet
CNBC Daily Open: Wariness over rate cuts lingers
  + stars: | 2024-02-22 | by ( Sumathi Bala | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Traders react as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is seen delivering remarks on a screen, on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, March 22, 2023. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Stocks mixed bagWall Street ended Wednesday mixed as investors digested the U.S. Federal Reserve's minutes from the January meeting. Fed's cautionMinutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting showed central bank officials expressed caution about lowering interest rates too quickly.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Takeshi Ebisawa, Morgan Stanley, Jim Caron Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Federal, U.S . Drug, Administration, Morgan Stanley Investment Locations: New York City, . Federal, New York, Japanese, Thailand
Christopher Waller, governor of the US Federal Reserve, during a Fed Listens event in Washington, D.C., on Friday, Sept. 23, 2022. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Thursday he will need to see more evidence that inflation is cooling before he is willing to support interest rate cuts. on cutting rates, the central bank official said higher-than-expected inflation readings for January raised questions on where prices are heading and how the Fed should respond. He added that there are few signs inflation will fall below 2% anytime soon based on strong 3.3% annualized growth in gross domestic product and employment, with few signs of a potential recession in sight. "That makes the decision to be patient on beginning to ease policy simpler than it might be," Waller said.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller Organizations: US Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, Federal, Committee Locations: Washington ,, Minneapolis
CNBC Daily Open: Worries over rate cuts persist
  + stars: | 2024-02-22 | by ( Sumathi Bala | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on July 06, 2023 in New York City. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Nikkei hits record highJapan's Nikkei hit a record high Thursday, while other markets in the region also advanced. AI and chip stocks rallyArtificial intelligence and semiconductor chip stocks rallied after Nvidia's quarterly earnings topped estimates.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Jim Caron Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Nikkei, Wall, Dow, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Federal, International Air Transport Association, Morgan Stanley Investment Locations: New York City, . Federal, China, Asia
S&P 500 futures edged up in overnight trading Wednesday, boosted by a jump in Nvidia shares as the chip giant posted record revenue and issued upbeat guidance. S&P 500 futures rose 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 1%. Nvidia shares popped more than 8% in after-hours trading after the chip company said total revenue rose a whopping 265% from a year ago, driven by its booming artificial intelligence business. AI enthusiasm has powered the jaw-dropping rally in Nvidia, along with other Big Tech names, over the past year. "Investors should know that the path of disinflation will likely be choppy, creating volatility in the rates market," said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial.
Persons: David Russell, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nvidia, Big Tech, Bears, Federal, LPL, Moderna, Builders, Live, Booking Holdings, Intuit Locations: U.S
1: By waging war outside its own bordersOne critical reason Russia's economy is still ticking is because of the location of the war. AdvertisementConsider the impact of the war on the economies of both Russia and Ukraine. In 2022, the first year of the war, Russia's economy contracted 1.2%, according to official statistics. Russia was facing a demographic crisis with a declining population and falling fertility rate even before its war with Ukraine. 4: By stimulating and steadying its economy with subsidies and policiesGovernment subsidies, spending, and policies are also propping up Russia's economy.
Persons: , Hassan Malik, Loomis Sayles, it's, Malik, Vladimir Putin's, Sergei Guriev, Malik isn't, Alex Isakov, Putin, Alexandra Prokopenko Organizations: Service, Business, Reuters, US, Exchange, European Bank for Reconstruction, Bloomberg Economics, Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies Locations: Russia, Moscow, Boston, Crimea, Ukraine, Russian, China, India, Austrian
That sudden volatility highlights something that we often write about in Before the Bell: the major mismatch between policymaker and investor expectations for interest rate cuts this year. Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have repeatedly said they envision at most three rate cuts in 2024. Wall Street, meanwhile, has ignored those warnings and has opted to practice unflinching optimism instead. It’s not the first time they’ve had to learn an important lesson: Don’t fight the Fed. Bad for the markets, good for the Fed: Markets clearly don’t often take kindly to higher-for-longer interest rates, which can negatively impact earnings and stock prices.
Persons: New York CNN —, Jerome Powell, Dow, It’s, they’ve, Don’t, , , Quincy Krosby, Arnim Holzer, José Torres, Chris Zaccarelli, doesn’t, ” Carl Icahn, Carl Icahn, Icahn, Chris Isidore, JetBlue’s, Samantha Delouya, Lyft, Erin Brewer Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, of Labor Statistics, BLS, Treasury, LPL, Fed, Interactive Brokers, CPI, Independent, Alliance, JetBlue, Spirit Airlines, Analysts Locations: New York, December’s, ,
WASHINGTON (AP) — From Wall Street traders to car dealers to home buyers, Americans are eager for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates and lightening the heavy burden on borrowers. Why, with inflation nearly conquered and interest rates at a 22-year high, isn't now the time to cut? High rates could also compound the struggles of banks that are saddled with bad commercial real estate loans, which would be harder to refinance at higher rates. “We need the government to address the interest rates ... and understand that they’ve accomplished their goal of lowering inflation," Kelleher said. If so, that might not just delay the Fed's rate cuts, but result in fewer of them.
Persons: isn't, , Steven Blitz, “ They’re, ” Loretta Mester, Mester, , David Kelleher's Chrysler, Kelleher, ” Kelleher, Powell, ” Powell, we’re, Andrea Kugler, Eric Swanson Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve, GlobalData, Lombard, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Jeep, Fed, University of California Locations: Wall, Philadelphia, Irvine
Neel Kashkari, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, during an interview in New York on Nov. 7, 2023. Interest rates running at their highest levels in about 23 years are not hurting the economy and could buy policymakers more time before deciding whether to cut, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said Monday. In an essay released on the central bank's website, Kashkari said economic developments have shown that Fed policy is not as restrictive on growth as it appears on the surface. That means the longer-run "neutral" rate, or the level that is neither restrictive nor stimulative, is probably higher than before the Covid-19 pandemic. Markets have been betting on an aggressive move lower, but recent statements from central bank officials indicate little need to hurry.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, Kashkari Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Minneapolis Federal Locations: New York
The Kremlin has plans to hike Russia's spending by 26% in 2024, per the UK's Ministry of Defence. Russia's National Wealth Fund is "increasingly being used to fund its invasion of Ukraine," it said. AdvertisementThe Kremlin will likely need to impose austerity measures to resolve Russia's budget deficit amid the growing cost of its invasion of Ukraine, according to UK intelligence. Advertisement"It is likely that the government will need to reduce its contributions to the National Wealth Fund and increase domestic taxes and debt to fund its planned expenditure," the UK MOD said. Such policies will have negative medium-to-long-term impacts, the UK MOD said on Monday.
Persons: , Alexandra Prokopenko, who's Organizations: Ministry of Defence, MOD, Wealth, Service, UK Ministry of Defence, National Wealth Fund, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Center of Eastern European, International Studies, Foreign, Reuters, Bloomberg, International Monetary Fund, IMF Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Soviet Union, Russian
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