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☆ Morning Bid: Bank calm, rates firm, Alibaba steals show
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A semblance of calm has returned to world markets in the final week of the first quarter as the banking storm abates and the spotlight switched to a share-boosting six-way revamp of Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba. Investors cheered the surprise move from Alibaba (9988.HK) as a sign Beijing's corporate crackdown may be nearing an end, sending shares of the Jack Ma-founded firm and peers soaring. The surprise move seeks to take advantage of Ermotti's experience rebuilding the bank after the global financial crisis 15 years ago. Broader stock markets were higher across the board, with Wall St futures up almost 1% ahead of the open. Futures markets now show a 50-50 chance of one more Fed rate hike in this cycle in May and half a point of easing by yearend.

☆ Morning Bid: Bank angst persists, unnerves Europe
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

But banks boosted borrowing under the Fed's newly launched Bank Term Funding Program to $53.7 billion - almost 5 times its first outing the previous week. European bank stocks fell 3% early on Friday, with Deutsche Bank shares (DBKGn.DE) down for a third day - losing 5% amid rising market costs for insuring against the risk of default. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is due to attend Friday's European Union summit in Brussels and update leaders on the state of affairs in the financial system. Wider markets were lower in Asia and Europe and U.S. stock futures were in the red again ahead of the open. With less than a 50% chance of another Fed rate rise in this cycle now priced into the futures, almost 80 basis points of rate cuts are now seen by year-end.

☆ Bank of England raises interest rates again, sees inflation falling
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Sounding more upbeat about the outlook for the country's slow pace of economic growth, the BoE's nine rate-setters voted 7-2 in favour of a 25 basis-point increase in Bank Rate to 4.25%. "The MPC will continue to monitor closely any effect on the credit conditions faced by households and businesses, and hence the impact on the macroeconomic and inflation outlook," it said. On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its main interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, and indicated it was on the verge of pausing further increases. However, it said it expected wages to rise slightly less than it had previously forecast, as inflation expectations fell. The BoE was the first major central bank to start raising rates in December 2021 and until this week had seemed likely to join the Bank of Canada which this month stopped raising borrowing costs.

Despite recent signs that Britain's economy may be holding up better than some economists had feared, Dhingra stuck to her view that the BoE risked harming the economy unnecessarily by raising rates too high. Along with Silvana Tenreyro, Dhingra voted last month to leave interest rates on hold at 3.5%, while the other seven members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted through an increase to 4%. Dhingra on Wednesday stressed that the risk of too-high interest rates were a larger threat than the risk of embedded inflation pressure. Dhingra said she did not think either wage growth or inflation expectations offered good evidence of persistent domestically generated inflation pressures. "Those who put too much weight on those numbers, I think should have that in mind as well," she said.

March 8 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. Given all that, it is maybe surprising that Wall Street's three main indexes 'only' fell between 1% and 1.5%. The RBA raised rates by 25 bps as expected on Tuesday to 3.60%, the highest in more than a decade. But its dovish outlook caught markets flat-footed, and the Australian dollar plunged 2%. Trade activity fell in February, reflecting weak global and domestic demand, but trade with Russia boomed.

☆ Morning Bid: Powell's plan, China challenge
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Powell's semi-annual testimony to the Senate Banking Committee is widely expected to condone the recent shift in market pricing toward more aggressive Fed rate hikes and a 'higher for longer' rate horizon. The Fed's accompanying report to Congress last week said there was clearly more work to do to curb inflation. As was the case after the last Fed meeting, Powell's unlikely to push back strongly against market re-pricing - not least ahead of the critical February employment report on Friday. Markets have scrambled to push up their bets on the likely peak Fed policy rate over recent weeks as U.S. jobs, retail and inflation soundings have run hotter than most expected. World stocks and Wall St futures were in a holding pattern for the most part ahead of the testimony.

☆ Sterling slips after BoE's Mann warns of risks for the pound
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, March 7 (Reuters) - Sterling slipped against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, after a Bank of England (BoE) rate-setter warned that the pound could be vulnerable to Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) outlooks. The pound could depreciate if investors have not yet fully priced in hawkish messages from central bank peers, Catherine Mann told Bloomberg Television in an interview. "The important question for me with regard to the pound is how much of that existing hawkish tone is already priced into the pound," she said. Traders are also attaching a 93% chance of a 25-basis-point rate increase when the central bank meets to decide policy on March 23. There's no probability priced in that the bank could raise rates by more than that.

"Some further increase in Bank Rate may turn out to be appropriate, but nothing is decided," Bailey added. Bailey said that the economy had developed largely as expected since the BoE raised rates on Feb. 2. "Inflation has been slightly weaker, and activity and wages slightly stronger, though I would emphasise 'slightly' in both cases," he said. Bailey also highlighted how the central bank shifted its language in February, when it said further tightening would be required if there was evidence of more persistent inflation pressures. But two MPC members - Swati Dhingra and Silvana Tenreyro - voted in February to pause the rate hikes.

☆ Morning Bid: Irksome inflation won't die down
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Friday's latest U.S. inflation surprise was matched in Europe on Tuesday, with French and Spanish headline inflation rates unexpectedly rising again in February - making for an uncomfortable final day of a transformative month for markets. And worryingly, market-based measures of inflation expectations are rising sharply again too. U.S. two-year 'breakeven' inflation rates , taken from inflation-protected Treasury securities, have jumped 80 basis points this month to 2.8% - wiping away the prior assumption that inflation would return to the Fed's 2% target over two years. In Europe, the five year, five-year forward inflation linked swap has jumped 20bps to a 9-month high just under 2.5%. Stock markets steadied after early losses, with U.S. futures only slightly in the red ahead of the open and month end.

☆ FTSE 100 falls as Ocado sinks; still set for best Feb in six years
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Shashwat Chauhan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) lost 0.6% with shares of Ocado (OCDO.L) plunging 10.5% on the online supermarket and technology group's worse-than-expected full-year loss. "Ocado is in the eye of the cost-of-living storm because its offering isn't synonymous with being the best value," said Sophie Lund-Yates, lead equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. Lund-Yates said Ocado is a higher-end option, without the same benefits of enticing people with tangible, physical goods like peer Marks & Spencer (MKS.L). Despite recent volatility, the exporter-heavy FTSE 100 is on track to record its best February performance since 2017 as higher earnings and weakness in the pound earlier in the month made equities more attractive. On the flipside, hedge fund firm Man Group (EMG.L) gained 7.9% after posting a higher full-year core pretax profit and beating expectations on assets under management.

☆ Morning Bid: Blue chips cheered up
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] The logo of technology company Nvidia is seen at its headquarters in Santa Clara, California February 11, 2015. Its CEO Jensen Huang said use of its chips to power AI had "gone through the roof in the last 60 days." The Federal Reserve at least seems keen on the higher-for-longer message that's shaken world stock and bond markets this week. And as the minutes pre-date red-hot jobs and retail data for January, the message from Fed officials is probably even sterner now. A Reuters poll of equity analysts showed global stock markets are expected to correct in the next three months.

LONDON, Feb 23 (Reuters) - Bank of England interest rate-setter Catherine Mann said on Thursday that it was too soon to say the risks posed by the surge in inflation last year had eased and that the central bank should continue to raise borrowing costs. The BoE raised interest rates to 4% earlier this month but signalled it was close to ending a run of increases which began in December 2021. She has previously argued in favour of raising borrowing costs sharply in the face of an inflation rate that remains above 10%, even though the BoE has forecast that it will fall sharply this year. Two other members of the Monetary Policy Committee - Swati Dhingra and Silvana Tenreyro - voted to pause the rate hikes at this month's meeting. Mann also said that she believed that in normal times, interest rate changes took their full effect faster than the 18-24 months which economists have previously estimated.

Last week, Bailey signalled the tide was turning on inflation, even if it was too soon to declare victory. We have got the largest upside skew in our forecasts that we have ever had on inflation," Bailey said. Haskel aligned himself with Catherine Mann who also sees big upside risks to the BoE's price forecasts. By contrast, Tenreyro said the full force of the BoE's rate hikes over the last year had yet to be felt, with economic momentum already fading. "It's crucial to see it through, that we do enough to address potential upside risks to inflation," he said.

☆ Bank of England's Mann doubles down on backing for rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Gergely Szakacs | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

After hiking interest rates to 4% last week, the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) signalled it was close to pausing a run of increases which began in December 2021. Mann, consistently the most hawkish member of the MPC, said the risk of under-tightening policy far outweighed the alternative. "In my view, a tighten-stop-tighten-loosen policy boogie looks too much like fine-tuning to be good monetary policy. "From a risk-management point of view, monetary policy has to lean against these upside biases since wage and price inflation are still so high," she said. At the other end of the MPC spectrum, Dhingra and Tenreyro say over-tightening risked sending Britain's economy into an unnecessarily severe downturn, with the full force of the BoE's rate hikes yet to feed through.

☆ Afghan women prosecutors once seen as symbols of democracy find asylum in Spain
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/5] Afghan prosecutor S.M., who left her 4 years old daughter with her grandmother in Afghanistan while escaping to Peshawar, looks down in Islamabad, Pakistan, September 22, 2022. "Most Afghan women and girls that remain in Afghanistan don't have the right to study, to have a social life or even go to a beauty salon," Sharar said. due to fears over her safety and who specialised in gender violence and violence against children said, "I was the only female prosecutor in the province... The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) said it was not in a position to comment on specific cases. "The Government of Pakistan has not agreed to recognise newly arriving Afghans as refugees," UNHCR said in a statement.

☆ Photos: How Sea Spiders and Other Creatures Could Unlock the Secrets of Tissue Regeneration
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Nidhi Subbaraman | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The axolotl can regrow multiple organs, including lungs, heart and brain. When regenerative cells from a donor salamander were grafted into the arm of another, they grew into an extra limb. Scientists want to better understand the conditions under which limbs grow back. Catherine McCusker, PhD/University of Massachusetts Boston

☆ Morning Bid: Disinflation elation
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Whether the Federal Reserve policymakers will publicly chime with the disinflation narrative or not, many acknowledge their policy stance is now 'data dependent' from here. And unless disavowed of it by hard evidence, markets already assume the inflation battle is as good as won. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields were slightly lower. China's inflation rate crept back up last month too but it remains below 2% and annual producer price inflation is still in negative territory. Although UK bond yields and sterling skidded lower on Wednesday in mix of recession concerns and energy price disinflation hopes, there was better news on the retail front today.

☆ BoE's Mann does not see risk of raising rates too high
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Andy Bruce | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

My reading is we're not there yet," Mann said in a question-and-answer session after giving a lecture at Alliance Manchester Business School. The BoE raised its main interest rate to 3.5% in December from 3%; Mann voted for a bigger increase to 3.75%. Mann said she assessed the risk of over-tightening based on a range of metrics, including mortgage rates, equity valuations and currency strength, which fed into broader gauges of financial conditions, as well as financial market expectations. Financial markets see a 60% chance that the BoE will raise interest rates to 4% next month, and a 40% chance of a smaller rate rise to 3.75%. Rates are seen by markets as most likely to peak at 4.5% in the middle of the year, but with a high chance that the BoE could stop sooner at 4.25%.

☆ Texas executes former officer who hired hitmen to kill his wife
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( The Associated Press | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +4 min

HUNTSVILLE, Texas — A former suburban Houston police officer was executed Tuesday for hiring two people to kill his estranged wife nearly 30 years ago amid a contentious divorce and custody battle. Prosecutors say Robert Fratta organized the murder-for-hire plot in which a middleman, Joseph Prystash, hired the shooter, Howard Guidry. The execution was carried out after Texas’ top criminal appeals court overturned the injunction and the state’s supreme court rejected an appeal. Mauzy’s order conflicted with last week’s edict from the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals that barred her from issuing any orders in the lawsuit that would halt any execution. The Texas Board of Pardons and Paroles last week unanimously declined to commute Fratta’s death sentence to a lesser penalty or to grant a 60-day reprieve.

At the heart of Harry and Meghan's narrative is that Britain's sensationalist popular press is a "devil" that members of the royal family have colluded with to protect or enhance their own reputations. The royal family have been here before, though. "That said, you could argue it only reinforces the victim narrative from Harry and Meghan in America," the former aide said. "The one thing the royal family has on its side is time. So it can play the long game - which Harry and Meghan maybe can't, in that they have to be telling their story now."

☆ Iggy Pop Isn’t About to Whitewash His Past
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-02 | by ( David Marchese | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +18 min

Mamadi Doumbouya for The New York Times Talk Iggy Pop Isn’t About to Whitewash His PastIggy Pop’s life and work constitute one of music’s most remarkable survival stories. Iggy and the Stooges around 1969 — from left, Scott Asheton, Ron Asheton, Dave Alexander and Iggy Pop. But if you quietly say it to some sepulchral music, that’s a different thing, because you’re facing darkness once you hit 50. I don’t think that I was really thinking about anything. My doctor tells me I have a strong immune system, but I don’t think that’ll do it for you.

☆ New retirement account rules make it easier to tap savings early for emergencies
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-27 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

But they said the rules also amount to another source of so-called "leakage" that run contrary to the overall goal of retirement savings: to build a nest egg for the future. Participants can also access 401(k) savings via loans or non-hardship withdrawals. Non-hardship distributions also hit an all-time high in October — almost 0.9% of participants took one that month, according to Vanguard. And the share of workers taking 401(k) loans rose to 0.9% in October from 0.8% at the beginning of 2022. Beyond the apparent acute financial need among households, hardship withdrawals carry negative repercussions like tax penalties.

LONDON, Dec 16 (Reuters) - The Bank of England looks like it's being outed as the weakest link. The primary reason was that two of the nine-person MPC voted to end the Bank's rate rise campaign right away as the recession the Bank thinks is already underway will get entrenched next year. But with the median economist forecast for the Bank's terminal rate somewhere around 4.25%, markets still seem aggressively positioned for a hawkish surprise and the pound may be more vulnerable to that revision as the winter progresses. Significantly, the implied Fed terminal rate edged higher to 4.9% after its policy setpiece on Wednesday - even if is still below the 5.1% the Fed indicated. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

☆ Bank of England raises rates to 3.5%, expects more rises to come
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The Bank of England raised its key interest rate to 3.5% from 3% on Thursday, its ninth rate rise in a row as it tries to speed inflation's return to target after price growth hit a 41-year high in October. The BoE statement did not repeat unusual language from November when it said rates were unlikely to need to rise as far as markets expected. The European Central Bank is set to raise interest rates for the fourth time in a row on Thursday, although by less than at its last two meetings. Official figures on Wednesday showed consumer price inflation fell to 10.7% in November from 11.1% in October. That 0.4 percentage point fall in the annual rate was the largest since July 2021.

☆ Bank of England readies another rate hike even as recession hits
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Andy Bruce | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has faced both encouraging and worrying news on the economy since a majority voted in early November to raise rates by 0.75 percentage point, the biggest hike since 1989. A big majority of the 54 economists polled by Reuters last week predicted a 0.5 percentage point increase in Bank Rate, which would take it to a 14-year high of 3.5%. Investors mostly agree although financial markets put a roughly 25% chance of another 0.75 percentage point hike. The annual rate of consumer price inflation dropped to 10.7% in November from 11.1% in October, a lower rate than the BoE had pencilled in last month. "We think the Bank will opt for further hikes in the first half of 2023, until inflation shows less momentum."

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