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Nurphoto | Getty ImagesWith just days to go until France's snap parliamentary election kicks off, victory for the far right looks increasingly likely in the first phase of the two-stage runoff. But predicting the outcome of France's final vote on July 7 is less clear-cut, given the complexity of France's voting system. Voter turnout for the national election is also expected to be larger — and therefore more representative — than the 51% who cast their ballot in the EU vote. With that in mind, analysts see a 30% to 40% chance of the National Rally winning the 289 seats needed to secure an absolute majority in the 577-seat National Assembly. A majority government for either the far-right or the ultraleft alliance, meanwhile, could spark a far more dramatic outcome.
Persons: Jordan Bardella, Emmanuel Macron's, Schmieding, Organizations: National, Palais des Sports, Nurphoto, Elabe, CNBC, Macron, National Rally, National Assembly, Berenberg Bank, Citi Locations: French, Le, Paris, France
France's parliamentary election has already rattled investors as the country's risk premium rises — but two possible scenarios have still not been priced in by markets and could impact stocks in the wider European region, according to Citi. "However, the market is not priced in for far-right or far-left majority," Manthey said. "The outcome is still quite unclear, we only have polling for the first round of the election. "Let's put the announcement of the election in the context of the positioning of the investors. If the French election outcome "is very market unfriendly ... markets in Europe are quite correlated.
Persons: Beata Manthey, CNBC's, Manthey, Emmanuel Macron's, Let's, we've Organizations: Citi, CAC Locations: Sunday's, Europe, U.S
A photo shows the bell during a bell ceremony of the Euronext Brussels Stock Exchange in Brussels on March 18, 2024. LONDON — European stocks are expected to open in negative territory Thursday as global inflation worries continue to rattle markets. Global market attention is shifting toward fresh U.S. inflation data on Friday, with May's personal consumption expenditures price index, the U.S. Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, due to be released. Data releases in Europe Thursday include Italy's latest consumer and business confidence numbers, and Spanish retail sales. An EU leader' summit begins in Brussels on Thursday and the Bank of England publishes its latest Financial Stability Report.
Persons: Germany's DAX Organizations: Euronext Brussels Stock Exchange, LONDON, CAC, IG, Global, U.S, U.S . Federal, U.S ., Bank of England Locations: Brussels, U.S ., Asia, Pacific, Europe, EU
Poster of Christophe Versini for the Rassemblement National (National Rally) party, with Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella on it, on June 24, 2024. Recent polling suggests the far-right Rassemblement National (RN, or National Rally) party, led by Jordan Bardella, could win the most seats in the National Assembly, followed by the left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP, or New Popular Front). French bond yields — which move inversely to prices — have been relatively contained. Even then, he added, the spread of French bond yields over their German counterparts looked set to remain higher than before Macron called the election. There is little concern over France enacting its own "Frexit," he said, with even National Rally having moved away from actively proposing leaving the euro area or the European Union.
Persons: Christophe Versini, Jordan Bardella, Magali Cohen, Emmanuel Macron, Sunday's, Giorgia Meloni, Viraj Patel, Patel, Liz, Truss, Andrew Kenningham, Macron, Kenningham, François Mitterrand, Christian Keller, CNBC's, Keller Organizations: Rassemblement National, Afp, Getty, National Assembly, Societe Generale, BNP, Vanda Research, Capital Economics, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Barclays, European Union Locations: Germany, Italy, Europe, France, Britain
A Trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York City, June 24, 2024. LONDON — European stocks are expected to open higher Wednesday, reversing negative sentiment seen in the previous trading session. The positive open anticipated for European markets comes after rocky trade in the region, and elsewhere globally, after a tech-driven selloff — although volatility in the sector appeared to stabilize after chipmaking giant Nvidia rallied Tuesday. Wall Street is likely to shift its attention toward fresh U.S. inflation data on Friday with the release of May's personal consumption expenditures price index, the U.S. Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. Data releases in Europe on Wednesday include Germany's GFK consumer survey for July and European consumer confidence data for June.
Persons: Germany's DAX Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, LONDON, CAC, IG, Nvidia, U.S, U.S . Federal Locations: New York City, Asia, Pacific, U.S ., Europe, Mulberry
LONDON — European stocks are expected to open lower Tuesday, following souring U.S. market sentiment at the start of the week. The U.K.'s FTSE index is seen opening 16 points lower at 8,284, Germany's DAX 130 points lower at 18,207, France's CAC 40 down 32 points at 7,678 and Italy's FTSE MIB down 55 points at 33,982, according to data from IG. Global markets have turned lower after investors stateside sold off U.S. Big Tech stocks on Monday in favor of sectors such as banking and energy. Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose overnight, with traders assessing South Korea's consumer sentiment index for June, as well as Japan's service sector producer prices. Spanish gross domestic product data will be the main major economic release.
Persons: Germany's DAX Organizations: U.S, CAC, IG, Global, . Big Tech, Nvidia Locations: Asia, Pacific, Europe
Jack Taylor | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesLONDON — European stocks are heading for a cautiously higher open Friday as investors monitor a slew of central bank decisions and data releases. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index is on course for a weekly gain of more than 1.5%, its best performance since early May. Attention this week turned to central bank action, as the Swiss National Bank announced it would cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to 1.25%. The SNB became the first major central bank to cut rates during this cycle back in March. The Bank of England meanwhile kept interest rates unchanged at a 16-year high of 5.25%.
Persons: Jack Taylor Organizations: Getty, Equity, European Union Parliament, Reuters, Swiss National Bank, Bank of England Locations: Godalming, United Kingdom, France
Commuters crossing a junction near the Bank of England (BOE), left, in the City of London, UK, on Wednesday, May 8, 2024. Photographer: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesLONDON — European stocks are expected to open in mixed territory Thursday, with U.K. investors looking ahead to the Bank of England's policy rate decision. The U.K.'s FTSE index is expected to open 16 points higher at 8,212, Germany's DAX up 21 points at 18,087, France's CAC 40 up 3 points at 7,568 and Italy's FTSE MIB up 10 points at 33,192, according to IG. U.K. traders will be focused on the Bank of England's rate decision Thursday, although the central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady at a 16-year high of 5.25%, with the majority of economists polled by Reuters forecasting a cut in August after the country's July 4 election. Data released Wednesday showed U.K. inflation rose by an annual 2.0% in May, hitting the BoE's inflation target.
Persons: BOE, Andrew Bailey, Hollie Adams, Germany's DAX Organizations: Bank of England, City of, Bloomberg, Getty, Bank of, CAC, IG, Reuters Locations: City, City of London
CNBC Daily Open: Russia-North Korea defense pact
  + stars: | 2024-06-20 | by ( Abid Ali | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Russia-North Korea partnershipRussia and North Korea signed a "comprehensive strategic partnership" deal on Wednesday, including a mutual defense pact, during President Vladimir Putin's first state visit to North Korea in 24 years. While the 2% inflation mark is significant, it was anticipated and mainly driven by lower energy prices. Musk clarifies remarksElon Musk attempted to clarify his controversial remarks after advertisers threatened to leave X. Musk previously told advertisers to "go f--- yourself."
Persons: Vladimir Putin's, Putin, Kim Jong Un, CNBC's Holly Ellyatt, Elon Musk, Musk, Eli Lilly Organizations: CNBC, Bank of England, Cannes Lions, CAC, Nasdaq Locations: Russia, North Korea, Ukraine, Cannes, France
London CNN —London’s stock market has edged ahead of its rival in Paris as fears grow over the outcome of France’s looming parliamentary elections. The first round of the French elections is scheduled for June 30, followed by a second round on July 7. Hubert de Barochez, a senior market economist at consultancy Capital Economics, said investors might be concerned that a parliament run by the National Rally would penalize banks. In contrast with the political and financial turmoil in France, UK financial markets are “relatively stable,” said Rudolph at IG Group. Credit ratings agencies are already keeping a close eye on France, one of the EU’s three most-indebted countries.
Persons: Emmanuel Macron, Axel Rudolph, you’ve, , OpinionWay, Macron, Hubert de Barochez, Rudolph, Richard Hunter, Mohit Kumar Organizations: London CNN, Bloomberg, CAC, FTSE, European Union, , CNN, National, BNP, Credit, Capital Economics, IG Group, Labour Party, Interactive Investor, National Rally, Jefferies Locations: Paris, France, United Kingdom, Europe’s, Britain
French stocks are likely to take a further beating from political risk in the weeks and months ahead, but the impact will be focused in certain areas, according to strategists at Goldman Sachs. Along with an equity sell-off, borrowing costs climbed and the spread between French and German 10-year bond yields widened by 25 basis points. Goldman strategists expect that spread to remain wide in the coming weeks. "This would likely maintain the pressure on French domestic stocks, especially Banks, which are highly sensitive to sovereign spreads," Goldman strategists said in a research note published Friday. French domestic big names include supermarket chain Carrefour , construction firm Vinci and utility Engie , while its internationally oriented juggernauts include the likes of LVMH , L'Oreal and Remy Cointreau .
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Liz, Goldman, Banks, Vinci, Remy Cointreau Organizations: CAC, L'Oreal Locations: Carrefour
A stock trader looks at his monitors in the trading room of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Worries about a new coronavirus mutation in southern Africa have dealt a major blow to the German stock market. The Stoxx 600 index was up 0.68% in early deals, with all sectors and major bourses trading in the green. Travel and leisure stocks led gains, up 1.84%, while banks were also 1.28% higher. The index fell more than 6.2% last week.
Organizations: Frankfurt Stock Exchange, CAC Locations: Africa
Matthieu Delaty | Afp | Getty ImagesFrance's election campaign kicked off in earnest Monday following a weekend of violent nationwide protests against the far-right National Rally, or RN, whose record European Parliament gains sparked the snap vote. Protesters gather during an anti far-right rally after French president called legislative elections following far-right parties' significant gains in European Parliament elections, in Paris on June 15, 2024. More likely, however, is a "messy" hung parliament, he said — part of Macron's gamble to discredit RN's legitimacy ahead of the 2027 presidential elections. French stocks gained on Monday, with Goldman Sachs' senior European strategist Sharon Bell saying that the sell-off may have been premature. Protesters gather during an anti-far-right rally after French President Emmanuel Macron called legislative elections following far-right parties' significant gains in European Parliament elections in Paris on June 15, 2024.
Persons: Matthieu Delaty, Jordan Bardella, France's Le, Lou Benoist, Emmanuel Macron's, Mujtaba Rahman, Mujtaba, Goldman Sachs, Sharon Bell, Bell, CNBC's, Emmanuel Macron Organizations: National Rally, Afp, Getty, France's Le Monde, CGT, CNBC, Union, Eurasia, CAC, Generale, Protesters Locations: Lyon, France, Paris, Europe
Commuters crossing a junction near the Bank of England (BOE), left, in the City of London, UK, on Wednesday, May 8, 2024. Photographer: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesLONDON — European markets are set to open mixed as investors attempt to shake off negative sentiment from last week and look ahead to the latest interest rate decision from the Bank of England. Investors are looking ahead to the Bank of England's policy rate decision on Thursday. In Asia-Pacific, markets were mixed on Monday as the region assesses key economic data out from China. U.S. stock futures were little changed on Monday morning as traders start a holiday-shortened week.
Persons: BOE, Andrew Bailey, Hollie Adams, Emmanuel Macron's Organizations: Bank of England, City of, Bloomberg, Getty, CAC, Bank of, Reuters Locations: City, City of London, Italy, Asia, Pacific, China . U.S
Europe stocks head for higher open to round off choppy week
  + stars: | 2024-06-14 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
This picture taken in Paris on March 3, 2024 shows the silhouette of the Eiffel Tower and the city skyline against a cloudy weather. The Stoxx 600 index is nonetheless on course for one of its worst weeks of the year so far. Stateside, two sets of inflation data — the consumer price index and the producer price index — both came in softer than expected, boosting U.S. stocks. Between those readings, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and revised its outlook for interest rate cuts to just one in 2024. The start of the week was dominated by market reaction to elections to the European Union's parliament, in which far-right parties made gains, as had been forecast.
Persons: Stefano RELLANDINI, STEFANO RELLANDINI, Germany's DAX, Emmanuel Macron's Organizations: Eiffel, Getty, CAC, Federal Reserve, spooked Locations: Paris, AFP
A growing realization that President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to hold snap elections in France may backfire sent the French stock market tumbling on Friday to its lowest level in two years, and prompted warnings from the French finance minister that the economy risks stumbling into a financial crisis. Amid growing signs that Marine Le Pen’s far-right party may be ushered to the brink of power, France’s benchmark stock index, the CAC 40, slumped 2.7 percent. The losses capped a weeklong losing streak that sent shares down more than 6 percent, wiping out all the bourse’s gains since the start of the year. Among the hardest hit stocks were France’s biggest banks, including BNP Paribas and Société Générale, which hold hefty amounts of French sovereign debt. Equally worrisome, the risk premium that investors demand to hold French government bonds over Germany’s, a eurozone benchmark, rose to the highest since 2017, the biggest weekly jump since 2012, when the euro debt crisis was underway.
Persons: Emmanuel Macron’s, Société Organizations: CAC, BNP Locations: France
Jordan Bardella, President of the National Rally (Rassemblement National), a French nationalist and right-wing populist party, speaks to over 5,000 supporters on June 9th, at Le Dôme de Paris. French stocks plunged on Friday, with the country's blue-chip index heading for its worst week in more than two years, as investors weigh a potential far-right victory in the upcoming parliamentary elections. A volatile week kicked off in French politics, as President Emmanuel Macron called a snap election last Sunday. The president's decision came after the far-right National Rally party won a historic 31.37% of the French vote for the European Parliament, more than double the 14.6% won by Macron's own Renaissance party. The French leader has since said that he will not step down as president if National Rally makes significant gains in the French legislature, handing them control over economic policy and other domestic issues.
Persons: Jordan Bardella, Emmanuel Macron, Macron's Organizations: National, CAC Locations: French, Le, Paris, London
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on June 03, 2024 in New York City. LONDON — European stocks are expected to open higher Wednesday ahead of the latest U.S. Federal Reserve decision and inflation reading. The U.K.'s FTSE index is seen 29 points higher at 8,169, Germany's DAX 36 points higher at 18,408, France's CAC 40 up 13 points at 7,803 and Italy's FTSE MIB up 66 points at 33,946, according to IG. Investors have grown increasingly concerned that the recent strong jobs report and sticky inflation support a higher-for-longer interest rate environment. U.S. stock futures hovered near the flatline Tuesday night, while Asia-Pacific markets were mixed as investors assessed inflation data from around Asia.
Persons: Germany's DAX Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, LONDON, Federal, CAC, IG, U.S Locations: New York City, Asia, Pacific
LONDON — European stocks are expected to open flat to higher Tuesday as investors look ahead to the Federal Reserve's next meeting and U.S. inflation data. The U.K.'s FTSE index is expected to open unchanged at 8,223, Germany's DAX up 6 points at 18,493, France's CAC 40 up 21 points at 7,897 and Italy's FTSE MIB up 16 points at 34,568, according to IG. Regional markets fell on Monday as traders reacted to the EU Parliament elections and French President Emmanuel Macron's decision to call a snap election after the right-wing National Rally party made strong gains.
Persons: Germany's DAX, Emmanuel Macron's Organizations: Federal, CAC, IG, Regional
An employee enters sliding doors decorated with the stars of the European Union (EU) flag at the Berlaymont building, headquarters of the European Commission (EC), in Brussels, Belgium, on Tuesday, Jan. 28, 2020. LONDON — European stocks are expected to open lower Monday as traders react to initial results from the EU Parliament elections which suggest far-right parties have surged in popularity. The U.K.'s FTSE index is seen 57 points lower at 8,193, Germany's DAX 45 points lower at 18,507, France's CAC 40 down 45 points at 7,952 and Italy's FTSE MIB 60 points lower at 34,629, according to IG. Regional markets will be focused on the results of EU parliamentary elections, which took place over the last few days. The EU election drama was rounded off Sunday evening when French President Emmanuel Macron called snap parliamentary elections later this month after suffering a heavy defeat in the EU vote.
Persons: Germany's DAX, Emmanuel Macron Organizations: European Union, European Commission, LONDON, CAC, IG, Regional Locations: Brussels, Belgium, Britain, EU
Chesnot | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesFrench President Emmanuel Macron's decision to call a snap national election after a surge for his far-right rivals is a high-stakes move and a huge political gamble, analysts say. Macron's decision to call a snap parliamentary vote comes after the right-wing National Rally (RN) party, led by Marine Le Pen, won around 31% of the vote in Sunday's European Parliament election. That was more than double the 14.6% seen for Macron's pro-European and centrist Renaissance Party and its allies. France's CAC 40 slumped 1.8% in the early hours of trading Monday morning with French banks trading sharply lower. "This is an essential time for clarification," Macron said in a national address Sunday evening as he announced his decision to dissolve parliament.
Persons: Emmanuel Macron, Emmanuel Macron's, Macron, Le Pen, Macron —, , Daniel Hamilton, Johns Hopkins University SAIS, Antonio Barroso, Teneo, Barroso, Le, Douglas Yates, Yates Organizations: Getty, Getty Images, Marine, Sunday's, Renaissance Party, CAC, BNP, Societe Generale, Foreign, Institute, Johns Hopkins University, CNBC, Research, National Assembly, American Graduate School Locations: Chesnot, France, Paris
French election shock hits stocks and the euro
  + stars: | 2024-06-10 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
London CNN —The decision by French President Emmanuel Macron to call a snap election after losing to the far right in a vote for European lawmakers roiled markets and the euro Monday. The first round of the French election is scheduled for June 30, followed by the second round on July 7. Under the French system, parliamentary elections are held to elect the 577 members of the lower house, the National Assembly. Higher yields indicate that investors want a bigger premium to buy French bonds given the political uncertainty. “A right-wing majority in the (French parliament) would hamper any reform plans.
Persons: Emmanuel Macron, Macron, Générale, , , Mike O’Sullivan, whittle, Andrew Kenningham, ” Mohit Kumar Organizations: London CNN, BNP, Credit Agricole, National, National Assembly, CNN, Capital Economics, Jefferies Locations: Paris, Europe, , France
Read previewFrench President Emmanuel Macron shocked the world on Sunday by calling a snap election in France. The move came after a big win for his rival Marine Le Pen's National Rally party at the European parliamentary elections. AdvertisementHowever, the snap election could likely end the current coalition, which comprises Macron's party, Renaissance, the Democratic Movement, Horizons, En commun, and the Progressive Federation. Macron may have to form a cohabitation government with a prime minister from an opposition party, such as the National Party or Les Republicains. AdvertisementRepresentatives for President Macron did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Persons: , Emmanuel Macron, There's, Daniel Hamilton, Johns Hopkins University SAIS, France's, Macron, I've, Pen, Alain Duhamel, Bruno Cautrès, Antonio Barroso Organizations: Service, Business, Foreign, Institute, Johns Hopkins University, CNBC, Guardian, Cac, Financial Times, Democratic Movement, Progressive Federation, National Party, Sciences Po Locations: France, Paris
A sculpture of the Euro currency stands in the city centre of Frankfurt am Main, western Germany, on January 25, 2024. European stocks are expected to open higher on Thursday, with traders anticipating that the European Central Bank will cut borrowing costs for the euro area for the first time since September 2019. The U.K.'s FTSE index is seen opening 27 points higher at 8,270, Germany's DAX 75 points higher at 18,642, France's CAC 40 up 28 points at 8,032 and Italy's FTSE MIB 139 points higher at 34,711, according to data from IG.
Persons: Germany's DAX Organizations: European Central Bank, CAC, IG Locations: Frankfurt, Germany
European stocks are expected to open higher Wednesday, with investors in the region looking ahead to the next meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB). The U.K.'s FTSE index is seen opening 42 points higher at 8,274, Germany's DAX up 88 points at 18,501, France's CAC 40 up 46 points at 7,983 and Italy's FTSE MIB 174 points higher at 34,491, according to data from IG. Investors will be keeping an eye on earnings from Spanish clothing company Inditex. On the data front, final purchasing managers' index (PMI) data for the euro zone in May, a measure of services and manufacturing activity in the single currency area, is due. The ECB is widely expected to cut interest rates for the first time since 2019 when policymakers meet on Thursday, but investors will watch closely to see whether a slightly higher-than-expected euro zone inflation print released last Friday will affect the central bank's decision-making.
Persons: Germany's DAX Organizations: European Central Bank, CAC, IG, Investors, ECB
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