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☆ Jim Cramer: 'Don't freak out' about Fed rate-cut size, focus on stocks that benefit
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

CNBC's Jim Cramer said Monday that investors shouldn't panic over the size of the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cut this week. Instead, they should focus on the stocks that will benefit from the easing monetary policy. He stressed, "What matters is we're in a rate cut cycle. In a rate cut cycle, you buy a lot of stocks that … should really start accelerating because they've been hurt." When central bankers announce their next policy move, Cramer said that there will likely be some market volatility regardless of the size of the reduction.

Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, Stanley Blacker, Decker, Stanley Black Organizations: Stanley, Trust, CNBC Locations: U.S, Cramer's

☆ Stock futures are little changed as Wall Street braces for retail sales data, Fed policy meeting: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures were flat Monday evening as Wall Street readied for key retail sales data and the start of the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting. Futures tied to the S&P 500 hovered near the flatline, along with futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average . Investors on Tuesday will parse retail sales data for August for one final glimpse into the health of the U.S. consumer ahead of the Fed rate decision. The results could affect the rate cut outcome. She is forecasting additional 25 basis point cuts in November and December.

Persons: Biden, Dow, Dow Jones, Seema Shah Organizations: Intel, Futures, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Apple, Fed, CME Group's, September's National Association of Home Builders Housing

☆ The Fed has the proof it wants that inflation is slowing, but the next move is still up in the air
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A week's worth of inflation data showed that price pressures have eased substantially since their meteoric rise in 2021-22. "We got two more months of good inflation data" since the last Fed meeting, Claudia Sahm, chief economist for New Century Advisors, said in a CNBC interview Friday. Futures markets for most of the past week had lasered in on a quarter percentage point, or 25 basis point, rate cut. The inflation data "on its own would have gotten us 25 next week, as it should, and will get us a whole string of cuts after that," she said. [Fed officials] need to kind of clean it up, do a 50 basis point cut and then be ready to do more."

Persons: Jerome Powell, Claudia Sahm, Sahm Organizations: Banking, Housing, Urban, Capitol, Federal Reserve, Federal, New Century Advisors, CNBC, Fed Locations: Washington ,

☆ The Fed coin flip: Traders still divided on how deep next week’s cut will be
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Wall Street is growing more divided on how much the Federal Reserve will move interest rates next week. In fact, the market's mixed outlook ahead of the central bank decision is more unsettled than any time since the Fed started pushing borrowing costs higher in early 2022. Investors are certain that the Fed will begin reducing interest rates next week from their current 5.25% to 5.50% range, but a sense of uncertainty lingers. We do not anticipate any dissents" from voting members of the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee next week, Bank of America's Bhave added. "So if pricing stays where it is currently, it would be the first meeting in years where there's serious uncertainty about the rates decision."

Persons: Henry Allen, Aditya Bhave, Bhave, America's Bhave Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America, Committee, Bank, America's

☆ 2-year Treasury yield slides as investors assess interest rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by over four basis points to 3.6364%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last more than six basis points lower to 3.5824%. Attention began to turn to the Federal Reserve meeting next week at which the central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates. Traders were last pricing in a 59% chance of a 12-basis-point rate cut and a 41% probability of a 50-basis-point reduction, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The Fed's meeting is set to begin Tuesday before concluding Wednesday, with the interest rate decision and a post-meeting press conference.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Traders, PPI, Dow

☆ Don't expect 'immediate relief' from the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in years, economist says. Here's why
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Jessica Dickler | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The federal funds rate, which the U.S. central bank sets, is the rate at which banks borrow and lend to one another overnight. Home loan rates have already started to fall, largely due to the prospect of a Fed-induced economic slowdown. Student loansFederal student loan rates are also fixed, so most borrowers won't be immediately affected by a rate cut. Eventually, borrowers with existing variable-rate private student loans may also be able to refinance into a less expensive fixed-rate loan, according to higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz. However, refinancing a federal loan into a private student loan will forgo the safety nets that come with federal loans, he said, "such as deferments, forbearances, income-driven repayment and loan forgiveness and discharge options."

Persons: that's, McBride, Jacob Channel, it's, Matt Schulz, Bankrate's McBride, Mark Kantrowitz Organizations: Treasury, Mortgage, Association, Auto, Consumers Locations: U.S

☆ Treasury yields move lower ahead of key consumer inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Sam Meredith | In Samuelmeredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The yield on the 10-year Treasury was nearly 2 basis points lower at 3.625%, with the 2-year Treasury yield down 2 basis points at 3.586%. Treasury yields dipped on Wednesday as investors awaited the release of U.S. inflation data for clues on the size of a potential interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week. The reports come ahead of the Fed's Sept 17-18 meeting, with traders widely expecting a rate cut. Others have described such a move as one that would be "very dangerous" for markets, pushing instead for the Fed to deliver a quarter-point rate cut instead. Traders are currently pricing in a 67% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut, with 33% expecting a 50-basis-point rate reduction, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: U.S

☆ Markets get nervous over high core inflation and see the Fed cutting slowly
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stubbornly high core inflation virtually cemented the likelihood of a quarter percentage point cut from the Federal Reserve, which historically has avoided larger moves unless absolutely necessary. Shelter inflation is putting a floor under the CPI and likely keeping the Fed from reducing interest rates by more 25 basis points. "History back to 1990 supports the idea that an initial Fed rate cut of 50 basis points signals an imminent recession (2001 and 2007). "Their first cut will almost certainly be 25 basis points," Colas said. But the Fed, which targets inflation at 2%, prefers core readings as a better longer-term gauge for inflation.

Persons: Dow Jones, —, Nick Colas, Jerome Powell, Colas, That's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, CPI, Fed, Traders, Open Market, PCE

☆ Steve Eisman of 'Big Short' fame not worried about banks or economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Steve Eisman of "The Big Short" fame said he's unfazed by the weakness in bank stocks as well as any uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's next easing cycle. To Eisman, there's nothing to worry about. Eisman shot to fame by shorting collateralized debt obligations to profit from the demise of subprime mortgage loans before the 2008 financial crisis. Wednesday's data showed the consumer price index , a broad measure of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, increased 0.2% in August , in line with the Dow Jones consensus. The economy Concerns about lower-income consumers have also increased recently, but Eisman said they are not indicative of a systemic issue endangering the wider economy.

Persons: Steve Eisman, he's, Neuberger Berman, shorting, Michael Lewis's, Eisman, Dow Jones Organizations: Federal, JPMorgan, Ally Financial, Dollar Locations: U.S

☆ Goldman says watch out for more drawdowns, but the risk of a bear market is still low
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

For investors who just weathered a bout of summer turbulence, Goldman Sachs said expect more patchiness in stocks, but believes the bull market will remain intact. "However, we think the risk of a bear market remains low with relatively low recession risk, helped by a healthy private sector and central bank easing." The stock market benchmark has since recouped much of the losses, recently trading some 3.4% below its July 16 all-time high. A bear market represents at least a 20% decline from the S & P 500's record high, while even a correction would amount to a 10% drawdown. … Encouragingly, though … we are not staring at a severe slowdown," Bank of America said in a note to clients on Tuesday.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Christian Mueller, Goldman, Mueller, Glissmann, … Organizations: U.S, Bank of America, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S

☆ Treasury yields rise ahead of final inflation prints before Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was 2 basis points higher at 3.721%, with the 2-year Treasury yield also up by 2 basis points at 3.691%. Treasury yields rose early Tuesday ahead of the final major inflation prints before the Federal Reserve's September meeting. Treasury yields have stablized after tumbling through last week when a series of labor market releases missed estimates. Debate has erupted over whether the Fed could opt for a 50 basis point rather than a 25 basis point interest rate cut during the Sept. 17-18 meeting.

Organizations: Treasury, Investors Locations: July's

☆ Money market funds hit another record high — but experts warn it's time to move out of cash. Where they see opportunity
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-09 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Assets in money market funds hit $6.3 trillion the week that ended Wednesday, another record high, according to the Investment Company Institute . The annualized 7-day yield on the Crane 100 list of the 100 largest taxable money funds is currently 5.08%. History shows that when investors do move out of money market funds, they move into fixed income over equities, he said. Institutional investors will also continue to move into money market funds as the Fed cuts rates because any cash they have in direct money market investments, such as Treasury bills, will be hit by rate cuts quicker than money market funds, explained Peter Crane, founder of Crane Data, a firm that tracks the industry. Once you have the appropriate cash needs set aside, consider moving any excess funds into fixed income, Jenkin said.

Persons: Mark Cabana, Peter Crane, Crane, Ted Jenkin, Jenkin, Leslie Falconio, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae, Falconio Organizations: Investment Company Institute, Bank of America, Federal Reserve, Institutional, Crane, CNBC, American Express, Bread Financial, UBS, U.S . Locations: UBS Americas

☆ Fed Governor Waller backs interest rate cut at September meeting, open to larger move
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | Jeff Cox Is A Finance Editor With Cnbc.Com Where He Covers All Aspects Of The Markets | Monitors Coverage Of The Financial Markets | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +2 min

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Friday backed an interest rate cut at the upcoming central bank policy meeting in less than two weeks, and indicated he’d be open to a substantial reduction if necessary. Other policymakers recently have advocated easing policy soon, but this is one of the clearest indications it will happen at the Sept. 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. “Determining the pace of rate cuts and ultimately the total reduction in the policy rate are decisions that lie in the future,” Waller added. With inflation and employment near our longer-run goals and the labor market moderating, it is likely that a series of reductions will be appropriate,” he said. Futures market pricing following the jobs report tilted toward a greater likelihood of a quarter percentage point rate reduction this month.

Persons: Christopher Waller, ” Waller, Waller, verbiage, Jerome Powell, —, nonfarm, Dow Jones, ” Organizations: Federal, Council, Foreign Relations, Labor Department, Dow Locations: New York

☆ Bond market 'yield curve' returns to normal from inverted state that had raised recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-04 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

An inverted yield curve, in which the nearer-duration yield is higher, has signaled most recessions since World War II. However, a normalization of the curve does not necessary signal good times ahead. In fact, the curve usually does revert before a recession hits, meaning the U.S. could still be in for some rough economic waters ahead. Job openings had exceeded labor supply by more than 2 to 1 at one point, aggravating inflation that had been at its highest level in more than 40 years. That part of the curve is still steeply inverted, with the difference now at more than 1.3 percentage points.

Persons: Raphael Bostic, Quincy Krosby Organizations: CME Group, Atlanta Fed, LPL, Labor Department, Atlanta Federal Reserve Locations: Chicago, U.S

☆ Weak manufacturing measures raise specter of U.S. economic slowdown
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-03 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. factories remained in slowdown mode in August, fueling fears about where the economy is headed, according to separate manufacturing gauges. Demand continues to be weak, output declined, and inputs stayed accommodative," said Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. While the index level suggests contraction in the manufacturing sector, Fiore pointed out that any reading above 42.5% generally points to expansion across the broader economy. Another weak economic reading raises the probability the Federal Reserve will be cutting interest rates by at least a quarter percentage point later this month. "A further downward lurch in the PMI points to the manufacturing sector acting as an increased drag on the economy midway through the third quarter.

Persons: Dow Jones, Timothy Fiore, Fiore, Stocks, Chris Williamson Organizations: Institute for Supply Management, Dow, ISM Manufacturing Business Survey, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, PMI, P Global Market Intelligence Locations: U.S

☆ The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator increased 0.2% in July, as expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core PCE also increased 0.2% for the month but was up 2.6% from a year ago. Core prices less housing, another key metric for the Fed, increased just 0.1% on the month. Elsewhere in the report, the department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said personal income increased 0.3%, slightly higher than the 0.2% estimate, while consumer spending rose 0.5%, in line with the forecast. Markets reacted little to the news, with equity futures pointing to a slightly higher open on Wall Street and Treasury yields higher as well. In recent days, policymakers such as Chair Jerome Powell have expressed confidence that inflation is progressing back to the Fed's 2% goal.

Persons: Dow, Joseph Brusuelas, Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Dow Jones, Fed, department's, BEA, Treasury, RSM

☆ Markets are now wondering whether the Fed might cut by half a point in September
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Traders continued to price in a greater likelihood that the Fed will kick off what is expected to be a protracted easing campaign in September with a quarter percentage point, or 25 basis point, reduction. "My base-case scenario is that we are on a journey of 25 basis point cuts, probably for the next eight meetings, a couple hundred basis points cumulative," economist Paul McCulley said on CNBC's " Squawk on the Street ." "But if we see weaker growth, and particularly weaker jobs, then I think we could have a bit of front-loading and start the process with 50 basis point cuts." That, among other vows to support the economy now that inflation has waned, provided some indication that a 50 basis point move is at least on the table. Markets expect the central bank to knock off a full percentage point this year and at least that much in 2025.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Paul McCulley, Powell, Joseph LaVorgna, you've, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Rick Rieder, Goolsbee Organizations: Federal, Traders, CME, Cornell, Georgetown, Fed, Nikko Securities, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Locations: Powell's, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Atlanta, Chicago

☆ Fed Chair Powell indicates interest rate cuts ahead: 'The time has come for policy to adjust'
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell laid the groundwork Friday for interest rate cuts ahead, though he declined to provide exact indications on timing or extent. "The time has come for policy to adjust," the central bank leader said in his much-awaited keynote address at the Fed's annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. "The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks." The labor market is no longer overheated, and conditions are now less tight than those that prevailed before the pandemic," Powell said. He vowed that "we will do everything we can" to make sure the labor market says strong and progress on inflation continues.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, Powell, Stocks, Paul McCulley Organizations: Traders Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ Here's how a week's worth of huge economic news will affect the Fed's decision-making
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-17 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

We have to remember, the Fed made one mistake, the transitory" call on inflation, said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. Specifically, the Fed is faced with how quickly and aggressively it should respond now that the inflation rate is waning . "Jay Powell says they don't want to be data point dependent, and I think that makes sense. I don't think you have signs of weakness in the economy. You don't have signs of inflation being controlled, and you don't have any signal for the Fed to switch focus."

Persons: Jerome Powell's, Jackson, Quincy Krosby, Krosby, Richard Clarida, nonfarm payrolls, Powell, Jay Powell, Clarida, we'll, Komal, Kumar, He's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, LPL, CNBC, Sri, Kumar Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ Treasury yields slip ahead of consumer inflation figures
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 3.929% after rising by 1 basis point. U.S. Treasury yields fell slightly on Wednesday as investors considered the latest inflation data and what it could mean for the economy and monetary policy. Treasury yields had tumbled on Tuesday after the producer price index increased 0.1% on a monthly bass in July, less than the forecast 0.2% rise. The wholesale inflation figure was released ahead of Wednesday's consumer price index. Investors will also be scanning the inflation figures for hints the outlook for interest rates.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, CPI, Federal, Traders, Fed

☆ Wednesday's big CPI inflation report could mark a change in thinking for the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

watch nowThe PPI report, seen as a gauge of wholesale inflation, showed prices up just 0.2% in July and about 2.2% from a year ago. Still, investors are looking for the Fed at its September meeting to start cutting interest rates, considering that inflation is weakening and so is the labor market. Another benign inflation report "makes the Fed completely comfortable that they can shift their focus away from inflation and toward labor," said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at PGIM Fixed Income. There are cracks forming in the labor market backdrop." "I'm as curious about [Wednesday's] inflation report as anyone else, but I think it would take a real outlier to change the Fed's tune from 1) shifting to labor as its focus, and 2) seriously thinking about cutting in September," Porcelli said.

Persons: Jim Baird, Plante, Baird, Dow Jones, there's, Tom Porcelli, Porcelli Organizations: Walmart, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Financial Advisors, PPI, Fed, Traders

☆ Yen slips, markets brace for U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Last week ended calmer, with Thursday's stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data leading markets to pare bets for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. "It's more a case of market squaring up a little bit ahead of the U.S. inflation data," said Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC Bank in Singapore. The dollar was trading at 146.87 yen , up 0.2% from late U.S. levels on Friday. The Aussie was barely up at $0.6577 on Monday, while the New Zealand dollar stayed below last week's three-week high of $0.6035. Implied volatility on the yen, measured in yen options, has also subsided.

Persons: Bank of Japan's hawkishness, Jackson, Christopher Wong, J.P, Morgan Organizations: Bank of Japan's, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, OCBC Bank, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New, Bank, Japan, U.S . Commodity Futures Trading Commission Locations: U.S, Singapore, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

☆ Treasury yields rise as attention turns to inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by more than two basis points to 3.9647%. U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Monday as investors looked ahead to the latest inflation prints and other key economic data slated for the week. Amid continued uncertainty about the state of the U.S. economy, investors looked ahead to fresh inflation data due this week. When the Fed met last month, it left rates unchanged, but hinted that a September rate cut was on the table, depending on signals from economic data, both on the inflation and labor market front. Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a rate cut from the Fed in September, but traders were last split on the size of the cut, CME Group's FedWatch tool showed.

Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal, Fed Locations: U.S

☆ Markets no longer think the Fed needs to be as aggressive with interest rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-09 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

In just a few short days, markets have taken some of the urgency off the table for the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates. Earlier in the week, there were even some calls for an emergency intermeeting rate cut. At the least, markets figured the Fed was a near-certainty to reduce benchmark rates by at least a half percentage point. Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel has been one of the loudest voices for aggressive Fed action, calling Monday for an emergency cut . The Fed has been holding its benchmark rate in a range between 5.25%-5.50% for more than a year.

Persons: we've, Steven Wieting, Wieting, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Jerome Powell, Siegel, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reserve, Citi Wealth, Labor Department

☆ Wall Street will get key insight on the consumer, inflation in the week ahead as recession fears swirl
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-09 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The wildest week of 2024 has investors bracing for more volatility in the week ahead, with key insight on the consumer and inflation coming at a time when recession fears are top of mind. Inflation, labor data Next week's inflation data could get less attention than it has over the past year when the Fed's fight against pricing pressures put inflation reports on center stage. Recently, it's been the labor market getting the most attention. "The market's caring much more about about labor markets and growth, than they do inflation right now," Ladner said. Week ahead calendar All times ET Monday, Aug. 12 2 p.m. Treasury Budget (July) Tuesday, Aug. 13 8:30 a.m. Producer Price Index (July) Earnings: Home Depot Wednesday, Aug. 14 8:30 a.m. Consumer Price Index (July) 8:30 a.m.

Persons: Scott Ladner, it's, Ladner, —, Strategas, Ryan Grabinski, RJ Assaly, Jeremy Siegel, Chen Zhao, Zhao, Price Organizations: Federal, Walmart, Home, Horizon Investments, Bank of Japan, Wharton, Fed, UBS, Investments, Treasury Budget, Price, Philadelphia Fed, Retail, Manufacturing, Materials, Tapestry, Deere, Co, Housing Locations: U.S, NAHB, Michigan

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