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☆ There are 2 things that could go wrong for the US economy and spark a recession, Morgan Stanley says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

There are two things that could go wrong in the economy that could lead to a recession, Morgan Stanley said. AdvertisementThe US economy appears on track to keep growing, but there are two things that could spoil the no-recession forecast on Wall Street, according to Morgan Stanley. A slowdown, then people get laid off, laid off people spend less, the economy slows down more, and it snowballs," he added. "So that's another place where I think we could be wrong," Carpenter said of his recession forecast, though he reiterated that a downturn wasn't his baseline view. And if anything, where we were wrong with our forecast so far is that things have turned out even better than we dare hoped," Carpenter added.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, —, Seth Carpenter, Carpenter, Trump, Morgan, we've Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, New York Fed

☆ 15 U.S. states where you can retire comfortably on less than $65,000 a year
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Mike Winters | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

That's because the annual cost of living can vary by over $71,000 between U.S. states, according to a recent GOBankingRates analysis. Hawaii has the highest average retirement expenses, with an estimated $129,296 a year needed to retire comfortably. In states where housing is in short supply — like Hawaii, California, Massachusetts — the annual cost of retirement exceeds six figures. That said, there are 20 states where you can still retire on or under $65,000. Below is a list of states where annual retirement expenses are $65,000 or less, in alphabetical order.

Persons: you'll Organizations: Labor Statistics Locations: Hawaii, West Virginia, Hawaii , California , Massachusetts

☆ Kamala Harris wants to expand student-loan forgiveness for 10,000 doctors and nurses who agree to work in rural areas
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | Juliana Kaplan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Vice President Kamala Harris proposed an initiative to expand healthcare in rural communities. It includes recruiting 10,000 more healthcare workers to rural areas and expanding their student-debt relief options. Trump held the lead over rural voters in 2020, gearing up for a fight this election cycle. According to her campaign, Harris plans to recruit 10,000 healthcare professionals to work in rural and tribal areas. Advertisement"They both understand that rural voters are the foundation of our country, and they want rural voters to know that they have a home in their campaign - that is fundamentally about patriotism, freedom and opportunity," Hildreth said.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Trump, —, Harris, it's, Matthew Hildreth, Walz, Hildreth, Donald Trump, — Harris, Tim Walz, Anna Kelly, Kelly Organizations: Service, Public, U.S . Department of Health, Human Services, HHS, Research, General Internal Medicine, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Trump, Republican National Committee Locations: USA

See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowWhat Are Today's Mortgage Refinance Rates? See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. Current 30-Year Mortgage RatesAverage 30-year mortgage rates are hovering around 6.30%, according to Zillow data. Current 15-Year Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates are in the mid 5% range, according to Zillow data. But now that inflation has decelerated and the Fed has started cutting rates, mortgage rates have trended down.

Persons: Freddie Mac, it's, Fannie Mae Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Zillow, Fed, Mortgage, Association, ARM, . Government Locations: U.S, Chevron, Government

☆ Americans haven’t been this worried about making their credit card payments since the pandemic
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

But they’re growing increasingly anxious about mounting credit card debt. Debt balances have been growing, and US consumers are nervous about whether they’ll be able to keep up: Americans haven’t been this worried about missing a minimum debt payment since April 2020. Outside of the pandemic, that’s the highest delinquency expectation reading seen in the monthly survey since January 2017. “For people with good incomes and good credit scores, things are going well; they’re still able to access plenty of credit and, by and large, paying on time,” he said. Now the other half, that can be a much more troublesome situation when you think about potentially longer-term credit card debt.”Lower-income Americans face higher inflation, research shows.

Persons: they’ll, haven’t, Ted Rossman, it’s, that’s, ” Rossman, Rossman, “, they’re, ” Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, The, Consumer, Fed, Bankrate, ”, Minneapolis Federal, of Labor Statistics, York Fed Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, York, Minneapolis

☆ An artist used his $500 monthly basic income to build his hip hop career: 'It's not feasible to create art in a place of distress.'
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-13 | by ( Allie Kelly | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Tarli, 36, said cash payments helped him afford equipment for his hip hop career. Additionally, the cash payments helped him reach "flexibility and freedom" beyond affording basics. When Tarli received his first $500 check from the Springboard for the Arts guaranteed income pilot, he felt immediate relief. Springboard for the Arts' program gave 75 artists like Tarli monthly cash payments of $500 for 18 months, and was initially set to end in summer 2024. Cash payments helped him move toward that goal, he said.

Persons: Tarli, —, Tarli —, Paul, Paul —, J, Cole, Kendrick Lamar, he's, Cash Organizations: Arts, Service, Business, McKnight Foundation, Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: Twin Cities, St, Otter, Minnesota

☆ Why economists and strategists still say a recession is postponed, despite a startling inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-13 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Contradictory messages about inflation and the labor market have investors on guard. Price growth is slowly falling from its peak, but it exceeded expectations in September after a hot reading in August. AdvertisementInflation is a threat that won't sink the economyWhile there's plenty of economic data to get excited about, persistent price growth is a problem. "If we're going to be data dependent, we have to at least look at the data," Sosnick said. Higher-than-hoped inflation is rarely compatible with an economic downturn, so if price growth does persist, it likely won't be in an earnings-crushing contraction.

Persons: —, Steve Sosnick, they've, John Kerschner, Janus Henderson, Sosnick, Preston Caldwell, Morningstar's, Jim Baird, Plante, Baird, Joe Quinlan —, Skyler Weinand, Regan, Weinand, We've Organizations: Service, US, of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Interactive Brokers, Business, Manufacturing, Index, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Equity, Financial, Merrill, Private Bank, Bank of America, Regan Capital, Fed Locations: China

☆ A 32-year market vet shares 5 labor market indicators showing the US economy is barreling toward a recession — putting an overvalued stock market at risk for major declines
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-12 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

This is while S&P 500 valuations remain high, putting the market at risk for big declines. In a September note, Wolfenbarger shared the below chart from Bank of America showing 19 of 20 valuation measures they monitor as being overvalued. That means the S&P 500 would have to fall 60% just to return to the historical average. But it's still unclear how accurate the September jobs data is. Future revisions and further lackluster jobs data could resume investor fears that a downturn is a serious potential threat.

Persons: Jon Wolfenbarger, —, Merrill Lynch, St, Louis Fed, Wolfenbarger, September's, it's, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, JPMorgan, Conference Board, Global, Bank of America, Rosenberg Research, Nvidia Locations: St

☆ New Croc clogs mean matching togs for your dogs
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-12 | by ( Erika Tulfo | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

CNN —From cowboy boots to fried chicken-scented charms, foam footwear maker Crocs has a reputation for quirk. This month, Crocs is putting its best paw forward: The quirky-but-comfortable footwear maker is releasing a line of clogs for dogs. Pet Clogs are part of a partnership with pet supply company and subscription service BARK as part of Crocs’ annual “Croctober” campaign, when it releases a fan-inspired product. And sales of the footwear brand soared in 2020, thanks to the rise of casual fashion during the pandemic. “In many instances these will be fun purchases which people will share on social media, helping to amplify the Crocs brand,” he said.

Persons: Crocs, Andrew Rees, “, Justin Bieber, Bad, ”, Neil Saunders, Lightning McQueen, Saunders Organizations: CNN, Labor Statistics, American Pet Products, Disney, DreamWorks Locations: Crocs

☆ Ron Insana: September consumer inflation report was a mere blip in a wider cooling trend
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-11 | by ( Ron Insana | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

After the latest blast of consumer inflation data, traders are facing a conundrum around how they should interpret the monthly numbers. September's consumer price index report topped the Street's expectations, rising 0.1% from the month prior and increasing at a pace of 2.4% over the past 12 months. Still, the annual inflation rate was the lowest since February 2021. Relative to expectations, September's CPI number does not imply a reacceleration of inflation. Rather, the rate of consumer inflation continues to slow, albeit at a more modest pace than some had hoped for.

Persons: Dow Jones, Nonfarm payrolls, Austan Goolsbee, Ron Insana Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, Social Security, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, CNBC Locations: U.S

☆ Ozempic-fueled slimming is blowing up the wedding dress industry
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-11 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —Price distortions and dysfunction are nothing new in the $73 billion wedding industry. For better or worse, many brides are using the drugs ahead of their big day, lured in by the promise of rapid weight loss. The right fitThe ideal time to buy a wedding dress is eight to 10 months before the event, according to wedding planning site the Knot, and some planners recommend buying a full year in advance in case of shipping delays. “Usually, the dress was ordered somewhere in the middle of those 50 pounds.”It’s hard to overstate how such drastic weight loss can complicate a wedding dress’ fit. “Weight loss has always been a top of priority.

Persons: CNN Business ’, Tami Luhby, Susan Ruddie, Dresser, Spring, That’s, they’re, ”, Myrna Lundberg, “, Lundberg, ” Lundberg, “ It’s, — it’s, you’re Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, FDA, Drug Administration, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNN Locations: New York, China, Suez, United States

☆ Another key US inflation gauge fell in September
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-11 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

CNN —Inflation for US producers slowed further in September, adding to hopes that prices aren’t getting jacked up before they get to consumers. The annual rate is running faster than the 1.6% gain economists expected, according to FactSet estimates; however, August’s rate was revised higher from the initial 1.7% estimate, so prices still fell in September. PPI is important because it’s often seen as a bellwether for the price increases consumers will wind up paying down the line. On Thursday, the Consumer Price Index — a measurement of average price changes for commonly purchased goods and services — cooled to 2.4%, its lowest rate since February 2021. As a result, Fed officials have now shifted from trying to contain inflation to trying to keep the job market healthy, the other half of their so-called dual mandate.

Persons: Price, that’s Organizations: CNN, of Labor Statistics, PPI, Federal Reserve

Social Security recipients can expect a 2.5% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) increase in their payments starting in 2025 amid cooling inflation. On Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the 12-month consumer price index inflation rate hit 2.4% in September. The Social Security Administration calculates the annual COLA based on consumer price growth in the months of July, August and September. That, advocates say, is proof that seniors and other Social Security recipients are facing a declining standard of living. “Congress knows this problem is going on, but the gridlock can’t seem to solve anything, much less the third rail of politics that is Social Security,” said Shannon G. Benton, executive director of the Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group.

Persons: ”, Mary Johnson, Shannon G, Benton Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Social Security Administration, for Social Security, Data, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Social, Social Security, CPI, “, Senior Citizens League Locations: Washington

☆ Inflation rate at 2.4% in September, topping expectations; jobless claims highest since August 2023
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Both readings were 0.1 percentage point above the Dow Jones consensus. The annual inflation rate was 0.1 percentage point lower than August. Excluding food and energy, core prices increased 0.3% on the month, putting the annual rate at 3.3%. Both core readings also were 0.1 percentage point above forecast. After a half percentage point reduction in September, the central bank is expected to continue cutting, though the pace and degree remain in question.

Persons: Justin Sullivan, Dow Jones Organizations: Labor Department, Dow, of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Locations: Greenbrae , California, U.S

☆ Hurricane season is set to scramble Americans' view of the economy before the election
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Additional disruptions from Hurricane Milton complicate the data collection for October's jobs report. To stimulate hiring, the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates in September, and the jobs report will strongly inform its path forward. "I wouldn't expect these events to materially change how Americans view the economy before the election," DeAntonio said. For example, it noted in its release last week Hurricane Francine, which hit Louisiana in early September, "had no discernible effect" on the employment data it collected. Any effects from the hurricanes could lead to an October jobs report that shows a more pessimistic view of the economy than underlying conditions would suggest.

Persons: Helene, Milton, —, Hurricane, Hurricane Helene, Hurricane Milton, Dante DeAntonio, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Daniel Zhao, DeAntonio, Francine, Guy Berger Organizations: Service, Hurricanes, Southern, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, University of Michigan's, Department, Labor, of Labor, Labor Statistics, Boeing, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employees, Glass Institute Locations: Florida, North Carolina, Hurricane, Louisiana

☆ Here's the inflation breakdown for September 2024 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Prices fall at the gas pumpAnnual food inflation is 'fairly tame'Frederic J. "What happens there can really move the dial when it comes to overall inflation and core inflation." CPI shelter inflation — which includes rental prices and an equivalent measure for homeowners — has gradually declined but remained stubbornly high. In September, shelter inflation throttled back on a monthly basis, to 0.2% from 0.5% in August. "Shelter inflation is now definitively moderating," Zandi said.

Persons: David Paul Morris, It's, Mark Zandi, Zandi, Sarah House, Frederic J, Brown, —, That's, that's Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, U.S . Federal Reserve, AFP, CPI Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ For Gen Zers tired of dating, applications for lavender marriages are open
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( Lindsay Dodgson | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Lavender marriages historically helped conceal sexual orientation, but Gen Zers are redefining it. To share the load, some are opening up applications for "lavender marriages" — something that was once the preserve of the LGBTQ+ community. AdvertisementBut lavender marriages have made a resurgence on social media in recent months among Gen Zers who are tired of being broke, single, and lonely. AdvertisementA modern-day lavender marriageTraditionally, a lavender marriage was just that — a legally binding marriage. They said lavender marriages were "looking more appealing by the day" and that the agreement might be what they "really need."

Persons: Lavender, —, Gen Zers, Robbie Scott, Edward Reese, Reese, Christine DeVore, Zers, Aleksandr Zubkov, Sofie Roos, Roos, Bumble, Cleopatra, millennials, Z, DeVore Organizations: Service, Birch Psychology, of Labor Statistics Locations: Washington

☆ Consumer price inflation slows in September
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

CNN —Price increases have slowed considerably from their peak two years ago and are now rising at a similar pace to inflation in 2017 and 2018, according to new inflation data released Thursday. The Consumer Price Index, which measures price changes across commonly purchased goods and services, was 2.4% for the 12 months ended in September, slowing from a 2.5% annual rate in August, according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics report. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.2%, in line with the advance in August but faster than economists’ projections of 0.1%. A jump in food prices combined with ongoing shelter-related price-hikes pushed the overall CPI higher last month, BLS said. Still, economists say that inflation is headed in the right direction, because the factors that pushed prices higher during the pandemic era have largely faded while demand has slowed to more normal levels.

Persons: CNN — Price, – Organizations: CNN, Labor Statistics, BLS

☆ Kamala Harris' pitch to families struggling to care for both kids and aging parents: Medicare for in-home eldercare
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-08 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

AdvertisementVice President Kamala Harris wants to make it easier for families struggling to care for children and aging parents simultaneously. During a Tuesday interview on "The View," Harris proposed a first-ever Medicare benefit to cover in-home care needs for older adults. According to a recent survey from Genworth, a long-term care insurance company, the average cost of in-home care stood at $75,504 in 2023 — up from just over $68,000 in 2022. Along with Medicare at Home, the Harris campaign outlined a proposal to expand Medicare to include vision and hearing coverage. Still, it's unclear if Congress would approve Harris' proposal; President Joe Biden has previously proposed expanding eldercare, which ultimately did make it into his 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law.

Persons: Kamala Harris, —, Harris, it's, Donald Trump, JD Vance, Vance, Joe Biden, asheffey Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Medicare, Bank of America, Home, Economic, of New Locations: Genworth, of New York

☆ Harris proposes expanding Medicare to cover long-term care at home
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-08 | by ( Annie Nova | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Vice President Kamala Harris announced a new proposal on Tuesday that would require Medicare to cover the costs of long-term care at home. Harris's universal in-home care proposal would require congressional action. The vice president pointed out that her plan could be especially beneficial to those caring for both their aging parents and their children. Medicare currently doesn't typically cover long-term care services at home. The cost of providing in-home long-term care services is staggering.

Persons: Kamala Harris, It's, Harris, Tricia Neuman, Neuman Organizations: Democratic, ABC, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Medicare, Medicaid Locations: New York, United States

☆ More Black and Latina women are leading unions — and transforming how they work
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( The Associated Press | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +8 min

Women make up roughly half of U.S. labor union membership, but representation in top level union leadership positions has lagged, even in female-dominated industries and particularly for women of color. Data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows that Black and Latina women experience a particularly wide gender pay gap. Juliana Yamada / APBlack and Latina women are driving labor union growth in the U.S. amid a decades-long decline in membership. In 2023, Black women’s union membership rate notched a slight bump from 10.3% to 10.5%, while Latinas went up from 8.5% to 8.8%. Momentum for Black and Latina women rising into labor union leadership has picked up in the last five years.

Persons: ”, Lane Windham, Gwen Mills, María Mata, Juliana Yamada, Black, Latinas, that’s, Liz Shuler, I’m, ” Shuler, Becky Pringle, Bonnie Castillo, Verrett, we’ve, ” Verrett, Emily Twarog, Lisa Lujano, Stacy Davis Gates, ” Pringle, Maria Mata, Mata, “, It’s, Keturah Johnson, Sara Nelson, Johnson, she’s, “ We’re, Coke, ” Johnson Organizations: Latina, Georgetown University, U.S . Department of Labor, AFL, National Education Association, National Nurses United, Service Employees International Union, Associated Press, University of Illinois, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Carpenters Union, Teachers, Chicago Teachers Union, CTU, United Teachers Los, ” Hospitality, AFA, CWA, United Airlines, Alaska Airlines, Frontier Locations: U.S, San Francisco, University of Illinois Urbana, Champaign, Chicago, United Teachers Los Angeles, Francisco

☆ Good news: The ‘hard landing’ forecasters got it wrong
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

But as we wind down 2024, one thing appears clear: The naysayers on Team Hard Landing got it wrong. The “soft landing” versus “hard landing” metaphor — perhaps overused but visually handy — refers to the economy as an airplane and the Fed as the pilot. Pull the right levers at the right time, and you get a nice comfortable soft landing, with inflation cooling and the labor market thriving. He was far from alone in thinking that a soft landing was little more than a fantasy. “We should just drop the soft landing versus hard landing discourse and start talking about a robust expansion at mid-cycle,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, told Schwab Network in an interview.

Persons: CNN Business ’, everyone’s, ”, Sung Won Sohn, we’d, ” Aaron, “, there’s, Justin Wolfers, Bill Dudley, “ I’ve, Dudley, Larry Summers, they’re, Joe Brusuelas Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Loyola Marymount University, Fed, . Upjohn Institute, Employment Research, ICYMI, Bureau of Labor Statistics —, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Bloomberg, RSM, Schwab Network Locations: New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ A recession next year is now even less likely following the blowout jobs report, says Goldman Sachs
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Friday's knockout jobs report has squashed fears of an imminent recession. Goldman Sachs cut the chances of a recession in the next year to 15%, and other analysts cheered. AdvertisementRecession fears have weighed on Wall Street recently, but Friday's blowout jobs report has assuaged worries of an imminent economic downturn. "Friday's US labor report put paid to US recession fears," Rabobank's research team wrote. The latest jobs report has relieved some concerns about the economy, but also dashed hopes for another jumbo cut in November.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, —, Stocks, Goldman, Saxo, Kamala Harris Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, Labor Statistics, Federal Locations: There's

See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. 30-Year Mortgage Rates TodayAverage 30-year mortgage rates are hovering near 6% today, according to Zillow data. 15-Year Mortgage Rates TodayAverage 15-year mortgage rates remain in the low 5% range, according to Zillow data. Average Refinance Mortgage Rates TodayRefinance rates have inched up after dropping in September. 5-Year Mortgage Rate TrendsHere's how 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates have trended over the last five years, according to Freddie Mac data.

Persons: they're, they've, you'll, Freddie Mac, it's, They'll Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Federal, Zillow, Fed Locations: U.S, Chevron

☆ A former investment banker who changed careers has 3 tips if you're considering switching industries
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Jaures Yip | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Angie Chen left investment banking to become a campaign marketer after feeling burned out. AdvertisementOne year after starting her investment banking job, Angie Chen received her bonus. "I used to feel so cool saying I worked in finance, in investment banking, I'm not going to lie," she told Business Insider. Chen, who made content about her investment banking career on TikTok, said that her social media inspired her to consider entering the marketing industry. Network with 'warmer contacts'While cold messaging on LinkedIn is a common strategy, Chen suggested trying to obtain "warmer contacts," or contacts suggested by mutual connections.

Persons: Angie Chen, Chen, —, I'm Organizations: Service, US Bureau of Labor Statistics

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