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☆ TSX tumbles after hotter-than-expected inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Johann M Cherian | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A report by Statistics Canada showed that April annual consumer inflation had surprisingly ticked up, fueled by higher rental and mortgage interest costs. "Underlying core inflation is settling in around 4%, which is clearly still too high for the BoC's comfort." ET (14:14 GMT), the Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) was down 235.32 points, or 1.15%, at 20,304.65. The materials sector (.GSPTTMT) tumbled 1.4% and was the biggest drag on the TSX, tracking weak base- and precious-metal prices. Reporting by Johann M Cherian and Vansh Agarwal in Bengaluru; Editing by Pooja DesaiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Canada housing market upturn could delay shift to BoC rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The housing market's upturn comes after the Bank of Canada paused its interest rate hiking campaign last month, leaving the benchmark rate at a 15-year high of 4.50% since January. A rebound in the housing market could boost activity and contribute directly to price pressures. "The Bank of Canada at the end of the day is probably not going to be too thrilled if the housing market really starts to ramp up," said Robert Kavcic, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. In addition, variable-rate borrowers have been sheltered from higher interest rates after lenders temporarily extended the period over which their debt is amortized, keeping their payments the same. But there are also tailwinds to support a recovery, including supply shortfalls, record immigration and labor market strength, analysts said.

[1/3] People walk past a branch of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) in Beijing, China April 1, 2019. REUTERS/Florence LoSummarySummary Companies Top five lenders post shrinking net marginsNon-performing loans hold steady at all fiveQ1 net profit growth mostly flatSHANGHAI/BEIJING, April 28 (Reuters) - Five of China's largest lenders posted shrinking margins in the first quarter on Friday, as loan re-pricing bites. Following suit were Agricultural Bank of China Ltd (AgBank) (601288.SS), Bank of China (BoC) (601988.SS), China's Bank of Communications Co Ltd (BoCom) (601328.SS), and China Construction Bank Corp (CCB)(601939.SS), all posting dips in their NIM. All lenders posted flat to around 5% net profit growth with BoCom logging the highest first-quarter net profit at over 5%. AgBank came in second with 1.75% as the others posted flat net profit growth over the same period.

☆ Bank of Canada rate-cut bets recede as core inflation proves sticky
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A sign is pictured outside the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, May 23, 2017. The BoC has made greater progress in slowing inflation than some major peers, including the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. Still, the rise in inflation expectations could be another reason for the Canadian central bank to be cautious about easing rates. The central bank has left its benchmark interest rate on hold for two straight meetings after lifting it to a 15-year high of 4.50%. Those rate hikes have contributed to inflation, by driving up mortgage borrowing costs, but the main aim is to slow the economy.

☆ China’s central bank expects ‘U-shaped’ recovery in consumer prices
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Workers at a factory making lithium battery products for domestic and international markets in Nantong, Jiangsu province, China. BEIJING — The People's Bank of China said Thursday it expects consumer prices to pick up this year, and that the central bank is not expecting inflation or deflation to become a significant problem for China. China's consumer price index hit an 18-month low in March, and rose 0.7% year-on-year. Zou added that in the medium to long term, China's economy has no basis for an inflationary or deflationary trend. He claimed that's because demand and supply in China's economy are even, and monetary policy is "reasonable."

☆ Higher US Fed rates 'not a major concern' for C$, BOC's Macklem says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

OTTAWA, April 20 (Reuters) - The impact on the Canadian dollar from U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates more than the Bank of Canada is not a "major concern" because of a flexible exchange rate and the BOC's independent monetary policy, Governor Tiff Macklem said on Thursday. "That is not a major concern. We have an independent monetary policy, we have a flexible exchange rate," Macklem told a Canadian Senate panel, in response to a question about the impact of higher U.S. interest rates on the Canadian dollar. "For sure there'll be some fluctuations in the Canadian dollar .. but, by and large, the flexible exchange rate system works pretty well," he said. Reporting by Ismail Shakil and Steve Scherer in OttawaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

April 13 (Reuters) - The banking stress in the United States and Europe has had a limited impact on Canada's financial system so far, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said on Thursday, adding though that there was a need to actively monitor risks to the system. "You're seeing a little bit of spillover to Canada, but honestly, it's really been quite muted," Macklem said when asked about how the country's financial system had been affected. Macklem spoke at the International Monetary Fund in Washington where he is attending an annual meeting. The failures of U.S. lenders Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, followed by Credit Suisse's rescue, are prompting central bankers to closely monitor the potential for banking stress to trigger a credit crunch. On Wednesday the Bank of Canada (BoC) held its key overnight rate steady at 4.50%.

☆ Top Bank of Canada officials speak after rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MACKLEM ON POTENTIAL FOR NEGATIVE QUARTERS FOR GROWTH"We're forecasting small positives. When you're forecasting small positives you can't rule out that there's going to be a couple quarters of small negatives. MACKLEM ON NEEDING A PERIOD OF WEAK GROWTH"I would remind you that we actually need a period of weak growth. We're expecting pretty weak growth for the rest of the year, something a little less than 1%." MACKLEM ON NOT FORECASTING A MAJOR CONTRACTION"We're not forecasting a major contraction.

☆ Bank of Canada seen on hold even as economy accelerates
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-09 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Last month, the Bank of Canada became the first major global central bank to pause its rate-hiking campaign, after lifting its benchmark rate to a 15-year high of 4.50%. This will carry through to higher economic growth." That is welcome news for most, but not for Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem, as it could call into question his decision to announce a conditional rate pause in January. "We suspect that the Bank of Canada will view the apparent strength in Q1 GDP similarly, and increase its estimate of potential growth." Canada's economy faces headwinds from higher borrowing costs and financial stability concerns, while inflation has cooled more than in the United States, said Nathan Janzen, assistant chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada.

BENGALURU, April 6(Reuters) - The Bank of Canada will keep its key interest rate steady at 4.50% through 2023, according to most economists polled by Reuters, with an even smaller minority now expecting an interest rate cut by year-end than a poll taken a month ago. In March, the BoC was the first major central bank to stop its aggressive hiking cycle and is on what it calls a conditional pause. So all 33 economists polled March 31-April 6 said it will hold its overnight rate at 4.50% on April 12. A majority of forecasters, 23 of 31, said the rate would remain unchanged for the rest of 2023. Only seven expected at least one 25-basis-point rate cut by end-year, down from 13 in a survey taken about a month ago.

☆ China's central bank calls for stronger defences against financial crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BEIJING, April 2 (Reuters) - China should accelerate legislation of the Financial Stability Law and improve other legal arrangements designed to prevent and dispose of financial risks, three officials from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) wrote in China Finance, a publication affiliated to the central bank. Financial authorities should strengthen supervision of financial institutions' date accuracy to prevent risks, the article said, saying if any enlightment should be drawn from the Silican Valley Bank crisis. China should also let the insurance deposit system play its full role, allowing the mechanism to deal with problematic banks in a swift and orderly manner, so as to effectively prevent systematic risks, said the authors, who are from PBOC's Financial Stability Bureau and the Deposit Insurance Corp.China's commercial banks as a whole are sound and stable, the article said. The authors said China should consolidate the capital reserves for dealing with financial risks to ensure that there are sufficient resources to dispose risks in a timely manner. Reporting by Sophie Yu, Brenda Goh Editing by Raissa KasolowskyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Even as Bank of Canada moves to sidelines, consumers not ready to splurge
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Molly Cone | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

TORONTO, March 22 (Reuters) - When the Bank of Canada became the first major global central bank this month to pause raising interest rates after its most aggressive tightening campaign in history, indebted consumers heaved a sigh of relief. Consumers' reluctance to spend could challenge an economy facing headwinds from a record pace of interest rate hikes as retail spending accounts for about 5% of Canada's Gross Domestic Product. The Royal Bank of Canada's consumer spending tracker released on March 9 showed discretionary spending "held up" in February, driven by air travel demand. While it is unclear what part of that has been deployed, that kitty will help Canada to avoid a deep recession, she noted. "They're trying to lock in these interest rates," Porter said.

☆ Bank of Canada and Fed head for historic divergence, in a blow to loonie
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A sign is pictured outside the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, May 23, 2017. A lower expected peak for Canadian rates has pressured the Canadian dollar against its U.S. counterpart. ,Canadian rates have peaked below U.S. rates in the three major tightening cycles since the start of the millennium, with the gap ranging between 50 and 75 basis points. "Poring over the national accounts, it's increasingly clear that interest-sensitive demand has wilted in Canada," Warren Lovely and Taylor Schleich, strategists at National Bank of Canada, said in a note after the recent GDP data. Still, there could be a limit to how much interest-rate divergence the BoC will allow, say analysts.

☆ Bank of Canada says it needs more evidence that rates are high enough
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

By Steve Scherer and David LjunggrenOTTAWA, March 9 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada needs more evidence to gauge if interest rates are high enough to tame inflation, in part because the economies of major trading partners are doing better than forecast, senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers said on Thursday. She spoke a day after the central bank left its key overnight interest rate on hold at 4.50%, becoming the first major central bank to suspend its tightening campaign as inflation eases. "If evidence accumulates suggesting inflation may not decline in line with our forecast, we're prepared to do more." The economic growth and inflation outlooks for both the United States and Europe are higher than the bank had expected in January. (Additional reporting by Fergal Smith in Toronto)((Reuters Ottawa bureau; david.ljunggren@tr.com))Keywords: CANADA CENBANK/Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ China to set up new financial regulator in sweeping reform
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The new financial regulator will replace the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) and bring supervision of the industry, excluding the securities sector, into a body directly under the State Council, or cabinet. The proposal for setting up the new regulator, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, was presented to China's parliament during its annual meeting on Tuesday. China's financial sector is overseen by the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the CBIRC, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), with the cabinet's Financial Stability and Development Committee having overall responsibility. The setting up of the new financial regulatory body comes as Beijing seeks to rein in large corporate and financial institutions that may bring systemic risks via regulatory arbitrage among multiple authorities. 'STRENGTHEN SUPERVISION'The new administration will "strengthen institutional supervision, supervision of behaviours and supervision of functions", according to the plan.

☆ Bank of Canada to hold rates steady at 4.50% through this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

All 32 economists polled Feb. 24 to March 3 expect the BoC to hold its overnight rate at 4.50% on March 8. A majority forecast the BoC to keep it there for the rest of 2023, despite several more rate hikes expected from the U.S. Federal Reserve. In the meantime, Canada inflation data are headed in the right direction. "Well, the interesting thing could be in the tone of the statement," said Brown, who expects a hawkish tone. "The Federal Reserve's continued rate hikes will eventually make their way into Canadian inflation through exchange rates...so that will certainly push the Bank of Canada to do more," said Shelly Kaushik, an economist at BMO Capital Markets.

If this continues, liquidity from Japan will continue to support global markets," he adds. The BOJ flow in January outstripped the combined liquidity drain from the Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of England, resulting in a G4 net liquidity provision of $115.3 billion. Operations from the ECB and, most notably, the PBOC, have helped pour around $1 trillion of liquidity into the global financial system in recent months. As Citi's King says, when changes in even the least significant line items on central bank balance sheets are measured in the hundreds of billions of dollars, "they should command investors' respect." Related columns:- U.S. debt ceiling saga softens Fed's QT- Bank of Japan shock raises 2023 global liquidity risksBy Jamie McGeever; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Central banks hike rates again, but a pause is coming
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Joshua RobertsLONDON, Feb 2 (Reuters) - Major central banks are steadily moving closer to a pause in their aggressive interest rate hiking campaigns. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England raised rates on Thursday, but markets suspect a peak is nearing. Overall, 10 big developed economies have raised rates by a combined 2,965 basis points in this cycle to date, with Japan the holdout dove. Canada's central bank has raised its policy rate at a record pace of 425 basis points in 10 months. The central bank raised its forecast for its peak interest rate to 5.5%, up from a previous forecast of 4.1%.

☆ Bank of Canada set for one more rate hike in historic tightening campaign
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A Canadian dollar coin, commonly known as the "Loonie", is pictured in this illustration picture taken in Toronto January 23, 2015. This week's meeting will be significant as the BoC will offer minutes from the policy-setting session for the first time. Money markets see a roughly 70% chance of a 25-basis-point move and expect the policy rate to peak at 4.50%. Economists expect the BoC to leave the door open to further tightening should upcoming data show price pressures persisting and push back against market expectations for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year. Better to err on the side of too much tightening with a 25-basis-point hike."

☆ 'P.R. job' or antidote to 'groupthink'? Bank of Canada to offer policy-meeting minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-22 | by ( Steve Scherer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Annual inflation shot to 8.1% in June, the highest in 39 years and four times the Bank of Canada's 2% target. On the recommendation of the International Monetary Fund, the BoC in September said it would release minutes to improve transparency,Other central banks including the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank already provide some form of record of their meetings. "The big enemy for policymakers and investors is groupthink," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex LLC. JOB'Other market-watchers say releasing minutes is more an exercise in public relations than an effort to boost transparency. Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReporting by Steve Scherer, additional reporting by Fergal Smith, editing by Deepa BabingtonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Is Canadian inflation on a sustainable path to 2%? Essentials offer clues
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-15 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Canada's consumer price index report for December, due on Tuesday, is expected to show headline inflation cooling to 6.3%, its lowest annual rate since last February, from 6.8% in November. If inflation expectations rise, it could push up wage demands, particularly in a tight labor market, leading to further price pressures. "One eye is on wage growth, which is strong but not too bad at the moment, but then this other idea (which is) on the price inflation for essentials that could keep wage demands high, as it affects inflation expectations." "If inflation slows and wage growth doesn't, then wages become more of a tailwind for inflation going forward. "What we really need to see in December is weaker price growth across the board."

☆ Canada posts hefty job gains, raising chances of another rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Ismail Shakil | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The economy gained a net 104,000 jobs in December, far exceeding analysts' forecasts, while the jobless rate decreased to 5% from 5.1% in November, Statistics Canada data showed. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had forecast a net gain of 8,000 jobs and for the unemployment rate to edge up to 5.2%. Money markets now see a 75% chance of a 25-bp rate increase in January, up from roughly 60% before the data. Employment in the goods-producing sector rose by a net 22,200, mainly in construction. Employees in the private sector rose by 112,000 in December, the largest increase since February, while public sector and self-employed workers were both little changed, Statscan said.

☆ Canadian dollar to rebound in 2023 if economic uncertainty clears
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The loonie will edge 0.6% higher to 1.35 per U.S. dollar, or 74.07 U.S. cents, in three months, according to the median forecast of currency analysts. The Bank of Canada, along with the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks, has raised interest rates at a rapid pace to tackle soaring inflation. Another potential tailwind for the loonie would be the end of the U.S. dollar's in global currency markets since 2021. A "weaker dollar story" could emerge if the Fed moves to end quantitative tightening (QT), said Bipan Rai, global head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets. QT is a process central banks use to shrink the size of their balance sheets.

Asian markets close the week on a solid footing, which is how they may well round off the year if financial conditions - global and local - remain as supportive as they are right now. Annual inflation in November is expected to fall to 5.1% from 5.7% in South Korea. chartThe substantial easing in U.S. financial conditions since mid-October has been crucial to this performance. Local financial conditions are also supportive. Financial conditions in Japan, South Korea and Thailand have all stayed relatively tight, almost entirely due to the appreciation of their currencies against the dollar.

☆ BoC to keep up pace with 50 basis point December rate hike -economists
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Fourteen said the BoC would dial down its pace to 25 basis points. Of the large Canadian banks, Scotiabank, CIBC and National Bank expected a 50 basis point move with no further hikes afterward. RBC forecasts a 25 basis point hike and then a pause, while BMO expects 50 and then another 25 in early 2023. The Fed, by contrast, is expected to raise its federal funds rate to a minimum of 4.75%-5.00% early next year, with the risks around forecasts skewed toward a higher rate. "The latest BoC research on household vulnerability and flexible mortgage rates support the idea that the BoC terminal rate will end at least 50 basis points below the U.S. Federal Reserve," said Sebastien Lavoie, economist at Laurentian Bank.

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