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How Credit Suisse and SVB are connected: Fear
  + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
Credit Suisse shares crashed more than 20% in Zurich after the bank’s biggest shareholder chose not to increase its funding, dragging down European bank stocks along with it. Why are traders seeing a connection between the Credit Suisse turmoil and the collapse of two US banks last week? “Credit Suisse has been a slowing-moving car crash for years,” wrote Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Financial Group. Customers withdrew billions from Credit Suisse last year, contributing to the bank’s biggest annual loss since the financial crisis in 2008. In short, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank didn’t cause Credit Suisse to stumble, but it did put the embattled bank under even more intense scrutiny.
Shares of the Swiss bank fell more than 24% after its biggest backer said it won't provide further financial support. Credit Suisse announced on Tuesday that it had found " material weakness " in its financial reporting process from prior years. Bank stocks were under pressure on Wednesday as the sharp drop of Credit Suisse rattled a segment of the market that was already reeling from two large bank failures in the past week. Some regional bank stocks saw even bigger declines. Credit Suisse struggles come on the heels of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in the U.S. Those failures caused steep sell-offs in regional bank stocks on Monday.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHere's what the plummet in European bank stocks mean for U.S. marketsPeter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group CIO and CNBC contributor, joins 'Squawk Box' to make some understanding of the bank stock performance in Europe, if the plummet in European bank stocks has any ties to Credit Suisse and more.
The bond market's recession warning has gotten more urgent
  + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
The bond market is sending a more urgent recession warning and also signaling that the Federal Reserve may have to pause raising interest rates — giving up its fight against inflation. The sharp move in the 2-year yield also resulted in a rapid steepening of the yield curve. "The steepening always starts to happen because the market expects the Fed to cut rates in response to that recession." DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach also said the "aggressively steepening" of the Treasury yield curve after inversion is "highly suggestive of imminent recession." The 2-year yield jumped above 5% after he spoke.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe economy is definitely moving toward a hard landing, says Bleakley's Peter BoockvarPeter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group CIO, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss his call that there's zero chance the Fed's next rate hike will be 50 bps.
Economists expect hiring remained strong in February and that wages grew even faster than they did in January. Economists forecast 225,000 new jobs were added in February, lower than January's surprisingly strong 517,000 jobs, according to Dow Jones. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.4%. The persistently strong jobs market and hotter-than-expected January inflation data changed the outlook for the Fed. The futures market is now pricing an end point for Fed rate hikes near 5.75%, against the current target range of 4.50%-4.75%.
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. There's no need to speculate anymore — in the first of his Congressional hearings, Powell said outright that the Fed might raise interest rates higher and faster than officials had projected last year. This means that rates could not only go beyond 5.25%, but the Fed could also return to 50-basis-point hikes. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. There's no need to speculate anymore — in the first of his Congressional hearings, Powell said outright that the Fed might raise interest rates higher and faster than officials had projected last year. This means that rates could not only go beyond 5.25%, but the Fed could also return to 50-basis-point hikes. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLaffer Tengler's Nancy Tengler on Powell: The market doesn't like his unpredictabilityNancy Tengler, Laffer Tengler Investments, and Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the perceived mixed messages from the Fed and how that's impacting the market.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Laffer Tengler's Nancy Tengler and Bleakley's Peter BoockvarNancy Tengler, Laffer Tengler Investments, and Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group, join 'The Exchange' to discuss mixed messages from the Fed and how they're impacting the market.
The seesaw-like tension between interest rates and stock prices should remain in play in the week ahead, as investors focus on comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the February employment report. There are few earnings in the week ahead, so economic data will likely be a main driver for stocks, along with the comments from Powell. The futures market is pricing in a high chance for a quarter point, or 25 basis point hike in March. Week ahead calendar Monday Earnings: WW International, ThredUp, Trip.com, Lordstown Motor, Ciena, Grindr 10:00 a.m. Initial claims 10:00 a.m. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr Friday Earnings: Embraer 8:30 a.m. Employment report 2:00 p.m. Federal budget
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailYou sense the market is desperately hoping the Fed is done hiking interest rates, says Peter BoockvarBleakley Financial Group's Peter Boockvar joins Eamon Javers and the 'CNBC Special: Taking Stock' to discuss the markets and the Fed, and where he sees things heading from here. With CNBC's Mike Santoli.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with NatWest's Michelle Girard and Bleakley's Peter BoockvarMichelle Girard, head of U.S. at NatWest Markets, and Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Financial Group, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the pace of job hiring in the U.S., Fed action and wages.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFriday's strong jobs number pushes back timing of potential recession, says Michelle GirardMichelle Girard, head of U.S. at NatWest Markets, and Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Financial Group, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the pace of job hiring in the U.S., Fed action and wages.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect a bull market in oil throughout 2023, says Goldman Sachs' Elizabeth BurtonCIO of Bleakley Financial Group Peter Boockvar and Elizabeth Burton, client investment strategist with Goldman Sachs Asset Management, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the commodities market as a safe-haven investment, winners and losers of the China reopening story, and strategic allocation of portfolios.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed rate hike prospects are reliant on non-farm payrolls, says Morgan Stanley's Seth CarpenterSeth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley chief global economist, and Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group CIO, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss Europe's recent rate hike, market prospects for Wednesday's Federal Reserve announcement, and more.
"He's going to do that by still saying the Fed's going to stay tight for a while. The Fed's rate hike Wednesday would be the eighth since last March. That is just a half percentage point away from the Fed's estimated end point, or terminal rate range of 5% to 5.25%. In the futures market, fed funds futures continued to price a terminal rate of less than 5%. "I think he's going to be hawkish relative to market pricing," said Jim Caron, head of macro strategies for global fixed income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEarnings season will derail year's early risk-on rally, Peter Boockvar warnsBleakley Financial Group CIO Peter Boockvar on what the latest inflation read means for the market. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Tim Seymour, Karen Finerman, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami.
They also point to weaker-than-expected wage growth in December's jobs report, as well as other data that reflects lower inflation expectations. Inflation is rolling over, and the Fed is almost done raising interest rates," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group. A basis point equals 0.01 of a percentage point. Rental market data shows a slowing in rates, but the CPI has not yet reflected it. "Everyone is familiar with the lag that it takes for the data to show up in the CPI," Tilley added.
While some economists anticipate a half point hike after that meeting, traders in the futures market put greater odds on a smaller, 25 basis point hike. A basis point equals 0.01 of a percentage point. "It's pricing 100% chance of a 25 basis point hike, and a 30% chance for an additional 25. "The market is still expecting the Fed to go another 60, almost 70 basis points," he said. Boockvar said the end point for the Fed matters more than if it raises by 25 basis points or 50 when it next meets.
2023 is arriving with plenty of uncertainty, as recession prospects, continued inflation concerns, and the potential for a consumer spending pullback are all clouding forecasts. But corporate capital spending looks to continue to forge ahead, according to the results of the recent CNBC CFO Council Q4 survey. More than one-third of respondents said that they expect their company's capital spending to increase over the next 12 months, while 39% said their capital spending will stay about the same as last year. Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group, said at the Summit that he views corporate capital spending going forward as "bifurcated." Roughly 65% of CFOs responding to the survey said they think inflation has already peaked, while more than 80% are already forecasting a recession for 2023.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRates are going to stay higher for longer, says Bleakley Financial Group's Peter BoockvarPeter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group CIO, and Andres Garcia-Amaya, Zoe Financial CEO, join 'The Exchange' to discuss yesterday's 50 bps Fed rate hike and how investors should position their portfolios heading into the new year.
Here's how the Federal Reserve confused the markets
  + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +6 min
Markets had flip flopped Wednesday afternoon, after the Federal Reserve released its policy statement and new interest rate and economic forecasts. Swonk noted there is agreement among Fed officials to drive rates higher, and most officials forecast an end point for rates above 5% in 2023. Fed funds futures Thursday showed a high rate of 4.89% by next May, still below the Fed's target. Every month that goes by means there's somebody's debt that matures that's going to be needed to be refinanced at a higher rate." With the economy weakening, I think the inflation rate is going to fall faster than most economists do."
Goldilocks and the Federal Reserve
  + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Steve Liesman | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGoldilocks and the Federal ReserveToo much? The Fed's fight against inflation has drawn criticism from all sides. Some Fed-watching economists think the central bank will go too far in its quantitative tightening and plunge the US economy into a recession. Others think the Fed hasn't raised rates enough to bring inflation under control and worry it will stop hiking too early. CNBC's Steve Liesman moderates a conversation with Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group Chief Investment Officer, and Diane Swonk, KPMG Chief Economist, at the 2022 CNBC CFO Council Summit on November 30, 2022.
Why the Fed may finally loosen its grip
  + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
The Fed should be pleased that its aggressive rate hikes in the past few months are having their desired effect, and they can ease up a bit. After four giant three-quarter-point hikes in a row, all signs point to Fed Chair Jay Powell announcing a half-point bump later this month. BIG PICTUREIt’s taken most of the year, but the economy appears to have made it over the mountain of inflation and aggressive rate hikes, according to Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group. But while 200,000 is nothing to sniff at, it’s still not soft enough for the Fed to pause its rate hikes. However, markets may cheer the fact that it’s low enough for the Fed to hike at a less aggressive pace than we’ve seen in recent months.
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