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Dollar weak as traders add to wagers of big rate cut from Fed
  + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
While the Fed is all but certain to cut rates next week, uncertainty around whether it will go with a 25 basis point cut or 50 basis points has kept investors on the edge and weighed on the dollar. Analysts pointed to media reports from the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal suggesting the Fed's decision would be a close call as one of the reasons for traders adding to wagers of a big rate cut next week. Higher U.S. jobless claims data released on Thursday and the Wall Street Journal article on the Fed's rate cut dilemma revived bets on a jumbo cut at the September meeting, according to Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC. Besides the Fed, the Bank of England and Bank of Japan hold policy meetings next week. "Risks remain that inflation may not return to target as easily as everyone, including the Fed, seems to expect."
Persons: Christopher Wong, Christine Lagarde, Ryan Brandham, Naoki Tamura, Sterling, BoE Organizations: Federal Reserve, Financial Times, Wall, Traders, European Central Bank, Fed, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Validus Risk Locations: North America
Dollar firm as inflation data douse bets for big Fed rate cut
  + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar traded near a four-week high versus the euro on Thursday after signs of some stickiness in U.S. inflation reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve would avoid a super-sized interest rate cut next week. The dollar traded near a four-week high versus the euro on Thursday after signs of some stickiness in U.S. inflation reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve would avoid a super-sized interest rate cut next week. Meanwhile, a quarter-point rate reduction from the European Central Bank is widely expected later on Thursday, with investors anxious for hints on how soon the monetary authority will cut again. Early on Wednesday, Bank of Japan board member Junko Nakagawa reinforced the central bank's tightening bias by saying low real rates leave room for further rate hikes. As a result, traders essentially priced out the chances of a 50-basis point rate cut on Sept. 18, paring the odds to 15% versus 85% probability for a 25-bp reduction.
Persons: Junko Nakagawa, Naoki Tamura, Tony Sycamore Organizations: Federal, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, IG, ECB, Sterling, Swiss Locations: U.S
Nikkei jumps 3%, leading Asia-Pacific markets higher
  + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Anniek Bao | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
A General view showing the Central Business District in Central on May 18, 2023 in Hong Kong, China. Asia-Pacific markets opened higher on Thursday, tracking gains on Wall Street after a volatile session spurred by inflation data. Japan's producer price index rose 2.5% year-on-year in August, less than the expected 2.8% and the 3% reported in the previous month. Investors will also look toward the release of Hong Kong's producer price index for the second quarter this afternoon. The listing is set to be the largest offering in Hong Kong since May 2021.
Persons: Jensen Huang, Goldman Sachs, Hong Organizations: Central Business District, Nikkei, Nvidia, Technology Conference, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, SoftBank, Bank of Japan, Reuters, Midea Locations: Central, Hong Kong, China, Asia, Pacific, San Francisco, Tokyo, India
For investors holding Japanese assets denominated in yen, the decline of the currency led to the value of their gains increasing. McManus isn't the only one who increased his exposure into the Japanese market following the early August sell-off. Before the yen started to strengthen, "Japanese investors could benefit because their lives and portfolios are denominated in yen. As a result, an appreciating yen will help overseas investors realize gains from the Japanese market as it continues its rebound. "This suggests that, if the cycle is heading towards [a] period of persistent yen strength, global investors should overweight Japan," Jefferies said.
Persons: , we're, Janus Henderson, Julian McManus, McManus, Jefferies, Shrikant Kale, Janus Henderson's McManus, Morgan Stanley, Daniel Blake, Peter Perkins, Perkins Organizations: Toyota, Bank of, U.S, Nikkei, Bank of America, Macro Research, Partners, Federal Reserve Locations: Japan
Japan's stock market has rebounded from last week's sell-off and investment firm Bernstein sees promise looking ahead, recommending a specific trading strategy and naming overweight-rated stocks. Both indexes have since recouped some losses, with the Topix and Nikkei ending 2.83% and 3.45% higher respectively on Tuesday. Below are four stocks from the investment bank's defensive screen, listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Stocks trading at a 'deep discount' Among the names on the bank's screen is video games company Nintendo . According to FactSet, analysts on average give Capcom over 19% upside, Keyence almost 24% upside and Bandai Namco 22.5% upside potential.
Persons: Bernstein, Rupal Agarwal, — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Charmaine Jacob, Arjun Kharpal Organizations: Nikkei, BOJ, Bank of, Tokyo Stock Exchange, U.S, Stocks, Nintendo, Capcom, Keyence Corp, Bandai Namco Holdings, Bandai Namco Locations: Bank of Japan, Japan
Asia-Pacific markets have extended gains on Wednesday after producer prices in the U.S. came in lower than expected for July. In Japan, business sentiment at manufacturers turned slightly less confident in August compared with the month before, according to the Reuters Tankan survey. The Tankan survey — which tracks the Bank of Japan's quarterly survey of the same name — showed that the sentiment index for manufacturers slipped to +10 in August, while the non manufacturers index fell to +24. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is also due to announce its latest decision on its official cash rate on Wednesday. Economist expectations are varied, with a Reuters poll forecasting the central bank will maintain rates at 5.5%.
Persons: Dow, Organizations: Dow Jones, Reuters, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of New Locations: Ginza, Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Pacific, U.S, South Korea, China, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
On Thursday, traders get the latest reading on the state of the consumer with retail sales data for July. Hot CPI and inline retail sales (up 0.1% to 0.5%) — JPM believes that a hot CPI print and retail sales matching expectations could fuel "stagflation risks." Expect the S & P 500 to gain and Nasdaq and Russell to perform similarly. Inline CPI and cool retail sales — How much equities move in this outcome depends on the magnitude of the downside surprise in retail sales. In this scenario, traders expect a broadening in the market that includes the S & P 500 gaining.
Persons: Dow Jones, Jerome Powell, Jackson, — JPM, Russell, JPM Organizations: Federal, JPMorgan, CPI, Wall, Federal Reserve, Bank of, Nasdaq, Russell
watch nowEconomists have said it is difficult to accurately assess the scale of the yen carry trade, with estimates varying widely. Some analysts, using Japan's foreign portfolio investments, say the yen carry trade could total as much as $4 trillion, Reuters reported. "The real Japan strategy is not just a quick carry trade, borrowing at close to zero interest rates in Japan and investing in high yield assets. Analysts at Barclays said systematic selling pressure does not appear to have been exhausted yet and it's "too early" to call an all-clear to the carry trades unwind. We expect volatility to remain elevated, which should continue to hurt EM carry trades," the analysts at Barclays said in a research note published Sunday.
Persons: Kazuhiro Nogi, Richard Kelly, he'd, Kelly, CNBC's, Nogi, Jesper Koll, Koll, What's Organizations: Tokyo Stock Exchange, Afp, Getty, Bank of Japan, TD Securities, Reuters, TS Lombard, Bank of, The Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, Monex, Barclays Locations: Tokyo, Japan, MEX, Brazil, Bank of Japan, U.S
In this article 8301.T-JP Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNTwatch nowCorrections in the yen and the unwinding of the carry trade are positive developments for Japan, said Jesper Koll, a veteran investor who remains bullish on the Japanese market. The yen carry trade began unwinding last week, as interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan strengthened the yen, and led to a sharp sell-off in markets globally. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon U.S. dollar/Japanese yen"It is correct to put a price on money. According to Koll, it's possible that as much as 75% of the yen carry trade could have been unwound, though the total size of the carry trade has not been reliably ascertained. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon Nikkei 225
Persons: Jesper Koll, , CNBC's, unwinding, it's, Koll, Claude Trichet Organizations: Monex, Bank of Japan, Nikkei, European Central Bank Jean, CNBC, U.S ., Bank of Locations: Japan, U.S
Yen slips, markets brace for U.S. inflation data
  + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Last week ended calmer, with Thursday's stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data leading markets to pare bets for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. "It's more a case of market squaring up a little bit ahead of the U.S. inflation data," said Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC Bank in Singapore. The dollar was trading at 146.87 yen , up 0.2% from late U.S. levels on Friday. The Aussie was barely up at $0.6577 on Monday, while the New Zealand dollar stayed below last week's three-week high of $0.6035. Implied volatility on the yen, measured in yen options, has also subsided.
Persons: Bank of Japan's hawkishness, Jackson, Christopher Wong, J.P, Morgan Organizations: Bank of Japan's, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, OCBC Bank, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New, Bank, Japan, U.S . Commodity Futures Trading Commission Locations: U.S, Singapore, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
CNBC's Jim Cramer on Monday reviewed what could have lead to last week's massive sell-off, telling investors the declines may have been facilitated by failed market strategies from larger institutions. Japan's stock market also declined sharply, with the Nikkei seeing its worst day since the "Black Monday" crash of 1987. To Cramer, last week's declines might have been caused by money managers from a variety of firms who used Japan's low interest rates to borrow money an invest in other global assets. "We've had so many sell-offs based on mistaken strategies by large institutions," Cramer said. "Let's remember last Monday's selloff and consider that it might've been about nothing more than flailing money managers, which is often the case with these big market meltdowns."
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, We've, selloff Organizations: Dow Jones, Nikkei, Bank of Japan
U.S. crude oil topped $77 per barrel on Monday, rising for the fifth day as the Pentagon dispatched more forces to the Middle East in anticipation of an Iranian attack on Israel. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered a carrier strike group, including F-35 warplanes, to accelerate its deployment to the region. Austin also ordered a guided-missile submarine to the Middle East. Here are Monday's energy prices:Israel has been preparing for strikes by Iran and the Hezbollah militia for nearly two weeks, after the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran. U.S. crude oil is trading higher even as OPEC lowered its global demand growth forecast by 135,000 barrels per day, citing softening consumption in China.
Persons: Lloyd Austin, Austin, Phil Flynn Organizations: Pentagon, Israel . Defense, UBS, Price Futures Group, Bank of Japan Locations: Israel, Iran, Tehran, China
While there was some demand for protection against the prospect of volatility reemerging, overall sentiment across Wall Street had gotten more bullish. Until Wall Street can be sure that the consumer will hold on (or not), conviction is easily shaken. After years of weird times and outsize gains, Wall Street is dancing on a knife's edge. After years of weird times and outsize gains, Wall Street is dancing on a knife's edge. What happened on Monday was a sudden realization that the new structure may assert itself before Wall Street imagined it would.
Persons: , Jerome Powell, we've, they'd, corporates, Dow, Mandy Xu, Cboe's, Wall, Torsten Slok, Slok, Shake, Kevin Gordon, Charles Schwab, they've Organizations: Dow Jones, Bank of Japan, Big Tech, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Wall, Apollo Global Management, Corporations, Companies Locations: Asia, Japan, Mexico
The latest global market volatility has reinforced China's status as a distinct market, even if its growth has slowed recently. While U.S. tech stocks plunged and Japanese stocks swung wildly in a historic two days of price action , Chinese stocks suffered less . The investors remained net buyers of Chinese stocks for the third quarter so far as of Aug. 6, the data showed. Finally, the low correlation of the China stock market with the U.S. stock market could provide investors with diversification benefits." Chinese stocks, especially those traded on the mainland, have historically been less correlated to global market moves due to Beijing's capital controls and other restrictions.
Persons: Matt Wacher, William Yuen, Invesco, That's, Steven Sun, Paul Christopher, Morningstar's Wacher, it's, Wacher Organizations: Nasdaq, Nikkei, Morningstar Investment Management, U.S, HSBC, Technology, Shanghai —, Bank of, Federal Reserve, Treasury, HSBC Qianhai Securities, National Bureau, Statistics, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Index Locations: Asia, U.S, Shanghai, China, Pacific, EPFR, Hong Kong, Bank of China, Wells Fargo
This week's violent global market meltdown started in Japan — where Warren Buffett has big investments — but the damage was limited. The Nikkei 225 index , a benchmark for Japanese stocks, plunged 12.4% on Monday, its worst day since "Black Monday" in 1987, triggering a domino effect globally. The stocks Buffett holds cratered as much as 30% initially, but bounced back by the end of the week along with the broader market. The Japanese trading houses also reported second-quarter earnings earlier this week, mostly exceeding analyst expectations and maintaining their full-year guidance. Away from Japan, Buffett was in a selling mood in the second quarter.
Persons: Warren Buffett, Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett's, it's Organizations: Bank of Japan, Berkshire, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Sumitomo —, Sumitomo, Tokyo Stock Exchange, Apple, Buffett Locations: Japan, Omaha, Berkshire
The recent sell-off in stocks could be a warning sign for what's coming for the economy, Mark Mobius said. If you look at the money supply growth in America, it is very low now," he said. We have more problems in the US and, that will affect the global situation unless the money supply is increased much more than it is now." Disruptions in the stock market are usually the signal "before the actual economic effects are seen," he added. A full-fledged bear market is unlikely, Bank of America said, as the market isn't flashing technical signals that would suggest a peak in stock prices.
Persons: Mark Mobius, Mobius, , Monday's, Stocks Organizations: Economic, Service, Mobius Capital, Bank of Japan, Economic Times, Fed, Bank of America Locations: Japan, America
A wild week of trading on Wall Street ended with the S & P 500 back roughly where it started, but the lessons learned by whipsawed investors over those five days could determine what happens next. The S & P 500 had its worst day since 2022 on Monday, and then its best since 2022 on Thursday. But with the S & P 500 ending the week down less than 0.1% in a calm session on Friday, the market seems to have stabilized. .SPX 5D mountain The S & P 500 finished the week nearly flat. And I think that has to do with investors really being a little bit skeptical about some of this equity market volatility."
Persons: Tim Hayes, Ned Davis, Gennadiy Goldberg, didn't, Jeremy Schwartz, Peter Berezin, aren't, Wellington, Frank Gretz, RJ O'Brien, Tom Fitzpatrick, Fitzpatrick Organizations: Wall, Treasury, Ned, Ned Davis Research, TD Securities, CNBC, Japan —, Nikkei, Bank of Japan, BCA Research, Wellington Shields, Associates Locations: Japan
The recent unwinding of the yen "carry trade" could remain a long-term headwind amid already turbulent markets. JPY= YTD mountain The Japanese yen's appreciation against the U.S. dollar marked the unwinding of the so-called carry trade. "There's still quite a significant yen short position out there," Osborne said. He estimates that there is still a roughly $15 billion yen short position through July 30, still to be covered. In other words, that short position could drive more strength in the yen as that position is covered.
Persons: , Shaun Osborne, Osborne, Everyone's, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, FedWatch, Ben Emons Organizations: Bank of, U.S, Scotiabank, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Wolfe Research, Swiss Locations: Bank of Japan, Japan
New York CNN —After a prolonged period of calm, financial markets went into a tailspin this week. One trigger for the selloff was the unraveling of the Japanese yen carry trade. Some investors say there could be more volatility to come, particularly since it’s unclear how much more the yen carry trade could unwind. The carry trade is “enormous. The unwinding of the carry trade and weak labor data came at a delicate time rife with uncertainty for Wall Street.
Persons: Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, , Steve Sosnick, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Dow, Liz Young Thomas Organizations: New, New York CNN, Nikkei, Dow, Nasdaq, Bank of Japan, Companies, Federal Reserve, Investors, CNBC, Interactive Brokers, Markets, Republican, Home Depot, Walmart Locations: New York, Israel, Ukraine, Russia
The wildest week of 2024 has investors bracing for more volatility in the week ahead, with key insight on the consumer and inflation coming at a time when recession fears are top of mind. Inflation, labor data Next week's inflation data could get less attention than it has over the past year when the Fed's fight against pricing pressures put inflation reports on center stage. Recently, it's been the labor market getting the most attention. "The market's caring much more about about labor markets and growth, than they do inflation right now," Ladner said. Week ahead calendar All times ET Monday, Aug. 12 2 p.m. Treasury Budget (July) Tuesday, Aug. 13 8:30 a.m. Producer Price Index (July) Earnings: Home Depot Wednesday, Aug. 14 8:30 a.m. Consumer Price Index (July) 8:30 a.m.
Persons: Scott Ladner, it's, Ladner, , Strategas, Ryan Grabinski, RJ Assaly, Jeremy Siegel, Chen Zhao, Zhao, Price Organizations: Federal, Walmart, Home, Horizon Investments, Bank of Japan, Wharton, Fed, UBS, Investments, Treasury Budget, Price, Philadelphia Fed, Retail, Manufacturing, Materials, Tapestry, Deere, Co, Housing Locations: U.S, NAHB, Michigan
Meanwhile, the yen strengthened 0.6% to 146 against the US dollar, after losing nearly 2% on Tuesday and Wednesday combined. But those fears, as well as a further jump in the value of the yen, are still haunting the market. The volatility in the yen, which was at the heart of recent market turmoil, remains elevated, he added. On Monday, the Nikkei plummeted by the most since 1987, sparking a broader global market sell-off. The narrowing of the interest rate differentials, which had enabled the yen carry trade, could push the yen higher, Kuptiskevich added.
Persons: Hong Kong CNN —, Germany’s DAX, Shinichi Uchida, Uchida, , Stephen Innes, Alex Kuptsikevich, Masamichi Adachi, Innes, Taiwan’s Taiex, Hang Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Nikkei, CAC, Nasdaq, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, FxPro, Federal, Fed, UBS, UBS Chief Investment, Kospi, Hang Seng Locations: Hong Kong, Europe, Japan, unwind
Why Jay Powell refuses to be bullied by Wall Street
  + stars: | 2024-08-08 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
The whole episode underscored a fundamental tension between the Fed, which is focused on economic stability, and Wall Street, which is focused on profit. The message from Powell and other policymakers is clear: We won’t be strong-armed by Wall Street. The BOJ’s deputy governor, Shinichi Uchida, citing volatility in financial markets, said the bank would not raise its policy interest rate as long as markets remain unstable. Powell (formerly in finance, hazel eyes, great ties) appears to have a real opportunity to Volcker it up even more in the coming weeks. That gives Wall Street plenty of time to sit in the corner and deal with its feelings.
Persons: CNN Business ’, Summer, Tim Walz’s, Jerome Hayden Powell, Here’s, Powell, , Powell’s, It’s, Paul Volcker fanboy, Shinichi Uchida, Mohamed El, , Volcker, quieting, Powell isn’t Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Finance, Federal, Stock, CNBC, Wall, Bank of Japan, Bloomberg Locations: New York, FiDi, Powell, Japan
Dollar gains after U.S. jobless claims fall more than expected
  + stars: | 2024-08-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Japanese yen banknotes of various denominations are arranged in Kawasaki, Japan, on Friday, June 23, 2023. The dollar rose on Thursday after new U.S. labor market data showed that unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, easing fears of an imminent recession. Initial jobless claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week ended Aug. 3, the Labor Department said on Thursday, suggesting fears that the labor market is unraveling were overblown. The sharp moves in the yen pushed the dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six others, including the yen, to a weekly high, before backing off. The Australian dollar rose 1.12% to $0.659, while the New Zealand dollar was up 0.25% at $0.601.
Persons: Shinichi Uchida, Eugene Epstein, Uchida, Marc Chandler, Jerome Powell, Vasu Menon, bitcoin, Ether Organizations: Labor Department, Bank of Japan's, Bannockburn Global Forex, U.S . Federal, Swiss, New Zealand Locations: Kawasaki, Japan, North America, Moneycorp, ., Bannockburn
On Thursday, investors in Asia will assess trade data from Japan and interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of India. Global equities and currencies plunged earlier this week after the Bank of Japan hiked interest rates to their highest levels since 2008, and the U.S. released weaker-than-expected employment numbers. Asia-Pacific markets were mostly down in choppy trading on Thursday after U.S. stock benchmarks fell overnight, while investors assessed trade data from Japan and awaited India's rate decision. "Assuming that the price stability target will be achieved in the second half of fiscal 2025, the Bank should raise the policy interest rate to the level of the neutral interest rate toward that time," the summary read. Japanese technology investor SoftBank Group said in a statement on Wednesday that it would buy back up to 500 billion yen ($3.4 billion) of its shares as part of its efforts to boost shareholder returns.
Persons: Shinichi Uchida, Lasertec, Korea's Kospi Organizations: Reuters, The Reserve Bank of, Reserve Bank of India, Global, Bank of Japan, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Nikkei, Bank, SoftBank, Semiconductor, Isuzu Motors, China's CSI, Cathay, Hong Kong's, Airbus Locations: The Reserve Bank of India, Asia, Japan, U.S, Pacific, Hong, Cathay Pacific
.VIX YTD mountain Cboe Volatility Index in 2024 That is literally what the VIX measures: expectations for volatility over the next 30 days. Was Monday a 'flash crash'? A "flash crash" is a sudden and severe price drop that lasts for a very short period, usually a few hours. "It appears that the sell-off of August 5th qualified as a flash crash, although it was rather modest by historical standards," he told me. During the 1987 flash crash, Higgins said an investor was trying to orchestrate trades on the phone while he was preparing to go to his relative's funeral.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, Alec Young, haven't, Mark Higgins, Higgins Organizations: Bank of Japan, Yen Trust, JPMorgan Chase, Fund, Dow Jones Locations: Japan, backwardation
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