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Burry was featured in the 2010 nonfiction book "The Big Short" by Michael Lewis which was made into a popular movie five years later. Farallon, meanwhile, added 2,197,000 shares of Alibaba, while Coatue added 4,796,186 shares of Alibaba and 1,221,551 shares of JD.com. China began taking steps to end its zero-COVID policy, which was among the world's strictest anti-coronavirus regimes, in December. Hedge fund managers' positions were revealed in 13F filings that show what fund managers owned at the end of the quarter. While they are backward-looking, these filings are one of the few public disclosures of hedge fund portfolios.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesKazuo Ueda is set to become the next governor of the Bank of Japan, succeeding current central bank chief Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. Kishida recently emphasized the need for the next central bank governor to have "global communication skills" and be able to coordinate closely with global peers, Reuters reported, citing his comments in parliament. He has led the central bank's ultra-dovish monetary policy, including maintaining a negative interest rate since 2016 – even as global peers have been hiking to tackle inflation. Bank of America Global Research expects gradual policy normalization under the central bank's new leadership instead of an abrupt change, according to the firm's economists led by Izumi Devalier. 'Well-suited' deputiesJapan's government also reportedly announced its nominees for other central bank roles including Shinichi Uchida, currently the central bank's executive director, and Ryozo Himino, the former chief of Japan's Financial Services Agency.
Like Microsoft's revamped Bing search engine, Bard is meant to give answers directly within search. The unveiling of its new search chatbot this week is likely to once again raise the question of whether Google is using others' work without fair compensation. The company is incorporating the conversational chatbot technology, known as Bard, into search, first as a small test while the company gathers feedback. Microsoft, which recently announced a multibillion-dollar investment into ChatGPT's creator, OpenAI, similarly intends to incorporate that chatbot into its Bing search engine. Microsoft could face similar headaches as it rolls out its new Bing search engine.
The S & P closed at a new high for the year Thursday, up 5.75% for the year. Consider: The S & P is breaking a long-term downtrend (lower lows and lower highs) that goes back to the historic high on January 4, 2022. The percentage of stocks in the S & P 500 trading above their 200-day moving average is expanding. The rally is broad-based, with both value and growth stocks in the S & P 500 up almost equally (6.2% and 5.4%, respectively). "You have to get through the 4,100 level, you have to stop the routine of lower highs and lower lows," one trader told me.
Morning bid: Dodging a downturn
  + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Global investors have fretted endlessly about a 2023 recession for the major global economies for more than six months. And Tuesday's latest economic healthcheck showed that the severe hit to Chinese economic activity from the draconian lockdown policies was actually much less than feared. The survey showed that investors' recession expectations peaked at a net 77% of respondents in November but have fallen to 68% in January. The BofA survey showed fund managers may have already repositioned, however, as their allocation to U.S. equities dived in January and a net 39% said they were underweight while preferring euro zone stocks.
This picture taken on October 27, 2022 shows pedestrians walking in front of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) headquarters in Tokyo. The move would come less than a month after the Bank of Japan caught markets off guard by widening its tolerance range for 10-year Japanese government bond yields. Indeed, Nikkei reported Monday that the Bank of Japan purchased JGBs worth more than 2 trillion yen ($15.6 billion) after the nation's 10-year bond yield curve topped 0.5% for two consecutive sessions. While the central bank leaving interest rates unchanged would be positive for Japanese stocks, BofA said a removal of its yield curve control policy could lead to sharp declines. HSBC, meanwhile, expects the central bank to announce further widening of the yield curve control tolerance band instead of abolishing the policy altogether.
BofA's Curtis Nagle breaks down under-the-radar housing plays
  + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBofA's Curtis Nagle breaks down under-the-radar housing playsCurtis Nagle, analyst at Bank of America Global Research, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss 2023 housing trends, top names for housing market plays, and indicators of home sale growth.
Recall that at the start of last year, the popular bet was for a smooth and painless rotation from expensive growth stocks to financials and cyclicals. It didn't last: The S & P financial sector trounced utilities by seven percentage points in just the first week of 2022. Yet the Nasdaq 100 's premium to the overall S & P 500 remains at 25% — higher than at any point in the decade before the Covid pandemic hit. And the broader tape, as measured by the equal-weighted S & P 500, continues to act better than the top-heavy headline index. This egalitarian basket, buyable via the Invesco S & P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) , is up 16% from the autumn low, is down less than 12% from its record high and has broken to a new cycle high against the traditional S & P 500.
Below are the events, trends and topics investors expect to shape the outlook for emerging markets next year. "The economic downturns along with the aggressive monetary tightening and geopolitical and commodity shocks that induce them will be temporarily painful in financial and emerging markets," said David Folkerts-Landau, group chief economist at Deutsche Bank. Globally, the war has transformed energy markets and inflation pressures, food security and geopolitical risk perception - factors that are often more keenly felt in emerging economies. "There's not actually a lot of debt maturing next year," said Carmen Altenkirch, emerging markets sovereign analyst at Aviva Investors. 6/ TURKEY ELECTIONSPresident Tayyip Erdogan could face the biggest political challenge of his two decades in power as Turks head to the ballot box in the most high-profile vote in emerging markets.
Reuters GraphicsOn a monthly basis, data showed that seven out of the 10 major central banks lifted rates in December. This compares to the monthly peak of 550 bps in September, though not all central banks meet on a monthly basis. "Most emerging market central banks are close to having completed their rate hike cycle," said Charles-Henry Moncheau, chief investment office at Syz Group. Central banks in Korea, South Africa, Thailand, Malaysia and Israel did not hold rate setting meetings in December. Emerging markets interest ratesReporting by Karin Strohecker and Vincent Flasseur in London, editing by Tomasz JanowskiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Dec 16 (Reuters) - Retail investors are doubling down on Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) as rising interest rates and volatile markets curb their appetite for risky assets such as meme stocks, SPACs and cryptocurrencies. On average, retail investors' portfolios are down about 39% in 2022 after recording gains of 18% in 2021, JPMorgan analysts Peng Cheng and Emma Wu said. The investment trend, however, is leaning more toward ETFs tracking broader markets and away from the meme stock frenzy of 2021 that saw retail investors banding together on social media forums to fuel eye-popping gains in GameStop (GME.N), AMC (AMC.N) and others. Retail investors' average daily trading volume in U.S. stocks has amounted to $13.8 billion so far in 2022, compared with $14.2 billion a year earlier, which was the peak of meme stock trading frenzy, according to the report. Meanwhile, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday voted to propose some of the biggest changes to American equity market structure in nearly two decades, aimed at boosting transparency and fairness while increasing competition for individual investors' stock orders.
Oil up $2 a barrel on supply risks amid ongoing Keystone outage
  + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $73.17 a barrel, rising $2.15, or 3%. The potential of a prolonged outage of TC Energy Corp's Canada-to-U.S. Keystone crude oil pipeline helped turn prices around. Traders worried about how long it would take to clean up and restart the Keystone oil pipeline after more than 14,000 barrels of oil leaked last week, the largest U.S. crude oil spill in nearly a decade. The outage is expected to shrink supplies at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub, and delivery point for benchmark U.S. crude oil futures. "The emergent EU embargo on Russian crude... may add moderate upside energy price risks in the next few months.
New York CNN —‘Tis the season for Wall Street strategists to pack their clients’ inboxes with market predictions for 2023. Market analysts aren’t alone. “US equity returns will be driven by earnings against a backdrop characterized by elevated market volatility,” write JPMorgan analysts. The effort was initially touted as a “Big Bang 2.0” — a nod to the rapid deregulation of UK financial markets under former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in 1986. The changes are a bid to maintain London’s role as a global financial hub after Brexit, which, alongside political turmoil, has boosted uncertainty for companies thinking about where to invest.
Defaults on private loans, which have fallen steadily since the pandemic's height in 2020, are ticking up. Private credit, or private debt, are catch-all terms to describe privately negotiated loans outside the public debt markets. Private credit firms engage in what's known as direct lending, making these private loans to companies who turn to them instead of a traditional bank. Analysts and asset management executives say private debt has held up well in 2022 in the face of brutal stock and bond market volatility. 'Fighting for allocation'A challenge for private debt funds in the past decade has been a dearth of companies they can lend to.
New York CNN Business —The holidays are rapidly approaching, and for the toy company Hasbro, a slowing economy could be a proverbial Grinch that steals Christmas. Before joining Hasbro, Cocks was an executive at Microsoft (MSFT) from 1999 through 2006 and 2008 through 2016. Cocks said Hasbro is investing “significantly” in digital toys, particularly digital versions of classic Hasbro board games like “Monopoly” and “Scrabble” as well as D&D and the company’s “Magic: The Gathering” game. It’s definitely been a boon for the game,” Cocks said. “If there’s a couple of truisms in life, there’s death, there’s taxes, and there’s parents wanting to have a great holiday for their kids.”
The current gain – which has seen the S&P 500 bounce about 6.5% last week's fresh intraday low for 2022 – comes on the heels of several rebounds throughout the year that eventually crumbled. However, the index has not been above that level since March even as the S&P 500 continued making new lows. The put/call ratio is yet to approach a 10-day average of at least 1.2 that has historically indicated that "you are more in the ballpark of panic and fear and close to a market low," he said. The current bear market has also been less severe than many past downturns. The S&P 500 slid as much as 25.4% this year, while bear markets since 1929 have seen an average decline of 35%, according to BofA.
The 60/40 strategy, known as a balanced portfolio, has been hit by rising bond yields — which means falling fixed income prices, as well as a sinking stock market. "The future is brighter for the 60/40," said Omar Aguilar, CEO and chief investment officer of Schwab Asset Management. "The correlation will come back to the normal levels, or the historical levels that you normally have between equities and fixed income," Aguilar said. Schwab's Aguilar advises against chasing yields in fixed income, but instead maintaining a balanced approach between credit and duration. In fixed income, the firm currently has a bond duration of four years, down from its previous seven-year duration.
For the third prong of BofA's capitulation test, the policy outlook also is getting closer, with respondents seeing interest rate cuts and lower bond yields ahead. However, investors are much closer to peak-fear capitulation when it comes to the economy and market outlook. A net 72% of survey respondents see global growth declining over the next year, just off the all-time low. However, he also noted that the rising pessimism has still been met with positive flows to equity funds, "suggesting no sign yet of capitulation from retail/institutional investors." The survey indicated the most crowded trade to be long the U.S. dollar, followed by short U.S. stocks and long ESG assets.
The bond market splashes some cold water on the stock market's attempt at upside follow-through to Monday's strong but familiar one-day pop. It happened just as the S & P 500 revisited the "island" left by its early-October rally. The October high of 3,806 remains an initial mile-marker with tests all the way up to the 200-day average around 4,150. This is a precondition for a serious rally that challenges the entrenched downtrend, but not in itself enough to make one happen. It's good to have a high wall of worry for stocks to climb, barring serious market instability.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThis is a buying opportunity for many investors, says Morgan Stanley's Sherry PaulSherry Paul, Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management managing director, and Meghan Swiber, Bank of America Global Research U.S. rates strategist & director, join CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to lay out their market forecasts ahead of the open.
S & P 500 Buybacks Q3 2021: $235 billion Q4 2021: $270 billion Q1 2022: $281 billion (quarterly record) Q2: 2022: $226 billion (est.) Source: S & P Global Bottom line: the 12 months ending June 2022 saw $1.012 trillion in stock bought back, the first time buybacks topped one trillion, according to S & P Global. Technology companies who buy back their stock will be getting some larger tax bills, according to an analysis by S & P Global. While a 1% tax is not much, some argue it could open the door to heftier tax rates down the line." Weaker CEO confidence in the economic outlook may cause a slowdown in buybacks.
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