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With the Federal Reserve expected to pause its rate-hiking campaign at this week's meeting, regional banks stocks have made a comeback, but that doesn't mean all the trouble is in the rearview mirror. Still, the upward march resumed on Tuesday, begging the question of what's ahead for bank stocks. As the Treasury sells tens of billions of dollars in Treasury bills, it could pressure bank deposits. Graseck predicts that a reacceleration of deposit outflows would snuff out the bank stock rally. In addition, regional bank earnings estimates, which had been cut severely in March and April, had leveled off in May.
Persons: Jack Ablin, Ablin, outflows, SVB, Aditya Bhave, Bhave, Morgan Stanley, Betsy Graseck, Graseck, Nicholas Colas, Huntington Bancshares, Matt O'Connor, KeyCorp, Albin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Cresset, Silvergate, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, PacWest Bancorp, Bank of America, Treasury, DataTrek Research, Citizens Financial Group, Truist, Morgan Stanley U.S, Financials, CRE Conference, Deutsche Bank, TFC Locations: Silicon, Federal, U.S, 2Q23, New York
Tiny tech bank defies US massacre of the minnows
  + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
One example is $1 billion Live Oak Bancshares (LOB.N), which flouts many preconceptions about what it means to be a tiny U.S. bank. But if those failures demonstrated that rapid growth brings escalating risk, Live Oak is a counterexample. Because of the way that programme is structured, around 40% of Live Oak’s lending carries a government guarantee. The company spun out its cloud-based banking software division nCino (NCNO.O) in 2014; that firm is now worth $2.8 billion, more than twice Live Oak’s value. That more earthly valuation might reflect Live Oak’s biggest risk: that it starts to look more like the rest of the pack.
Persons: it’s, Chip Mahan, SVB, It’s, Huntley Garriott, Goldman Sachs, reckons, , Keefe, Mahan, Liam Proud, Streisand Neto Organizations: YORK, Reuters, Wachovia, Valley Bank, U.S, Regional, Silvergate, Reuters Graphics Reuters, government’s, Business Administration, SBA, Federal, Truist, PNC Financial Services, redwoods, Twitter, Thomson Locations: United States, North Carolina, U.S
The S & P 500 could see more upside ahead after breaking out above a key level as artificial intelligence drums up market excitement, according to Evercore ISI. His new target implies the stock market could rally 3.9% from where it finished last week. That puts Emanuel above the median and average S & P 500 targets on Wall Street after previously being right around them. The S & P 500's recent breakout above the 4,200 points is a sign that AI-driven momentum first seen in the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite is now apparent in the S & P 500. Momentum masters He called this investing landscape a "Momentum Market" that requires more risk management a probabilistic thinking.
Persons: Julian Emanuel, Emanuel, he'll, Russell, , selloff, Zscaler, BancShares, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: ISI, American Association of, Investors, Big Tech, Nasdaq, Silicon Valley Bank, Federal Deposit Insurance Company, P Bank ETF, Banking Locations: Silicon
May 29 (Reuters) - HSBC (HSBA.L) is set to announce next month that the UK arm of Silicon Valley Bank will be renamed HSBC Innovation Banking, Sky News reported on Monday. The British government and the Bank of England facilitated a private sale of SVB UK to HSBC in March, in a move which would protect deposits without taxpayer support. Startup-focused lender SVB Financial Group became the largest bank to fail since the 2008 financial crisis. SVB is undergoing bankruptcy proceedings after California's regulators shuttered Silicon Valley Bank and appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. The regulators then agreed to backstop a deal for regional lender First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA.O) to acquire Silicon Valley Bank.
May 22 (Reuters) - First Citizens BancShares Inc (FCNCA.O), which acquired Silicon Valley Bank following its collapse, sued HSBC Holdings PLC (HSBA.L) on Monday, accusing it of poaching more than 40 of the failed bank's employees in order to launch its own U.S. venture banking business. The lawsuit filed in San Francisco federal court says HSBC violated federal law by hiring away the workers so it could gain access to Silicon Valley Bank's (SVB) trade secrets including information about clients in the tech and healthcare sectors. First Citizens in the lawsuit said it is seeking more than $1 billion in damages. First Citizens later in March purchased SVB's assets and deposits for up to $500 million in stock - a fraction of what the bank was worth before it failed. In April, HSBC had said it had hired dozens of Silicon Valley Bank employees to help the bank establish a dedicated practice focused on serving companies in technology and healthcare and investors who support them.
Insiders are snapping up regional bank stocks following the crisis in the sector, according to a Raymond James analysis. During the period between March 10 and May 15, shares purchases totaled 2.3 million shares, while shares sold reached 335,000 shares. Since the first quarter of 2005 to the first quarter of 2023, only seven quarters notched positive net insider transactions. It's also the greatest number of net insider transactions since the end of 2009. Raymond James recently reiterated an outperform rating on the stock, citing its rising earnings power, though it also lowered its price target to $26.
The year is nearing its halfway mark, and global stocks have been doing much better than they had in volatile 2022. CNBC Pro screened for stocks that are beating the market nearly halfway into the year — and that analysts love. Only one stock had a 100% buy rating: Japan's Kansai Electric Power Company , a nuclear electric power generation firm. U.S. semiconductor firm Onsemi also made the screen, with analysts giving it 28% potential upside and a nearly 60% buy rating. Italian bank UniCredit had the highest potential upside in the list, at 85%, on top of a decent 88% buy rating.
Judge Martin Glenn in Manhattan handed a victory to SVB Financial in broader dispute over FDIC's efforts to recoup its costs in rescuing the failed Silicon Valley Bank, preventing the regulator from claiming future tax refunds that SVB Financial valued at $300 million. FDIC sought to escrow those funds while the regulator determines whether they properly belong to the seized bank or the bankrupt parent company. Glenn ruled that FDIC had no authority to intercept checks that were clearly written out to "SVB Financial." He ordered FDIC to return the intercepted checks by Friday, and to send any future tax refunds checks to SVB Financial. FDIC argued that the tax refunds may be owed to the seized bank, which is now run by First Citizens BancShares, under a tax agreement between the bank and its former parent company.
Einhorn's Greenlight Capital took small stakes in New York Community Bancorp and First Citizens Bancshares in the first quarter, with each bet worth about $20 million, according to a regulatory filing. New York Community Bancorp's subsidiary, Flagstar, acquired Signature Bank assets after that bank was shuttered , while First Citizens bought a large portion of Silicon Valley Bank assets . New York Community shares are up nearly 20% this year, while First Citizens' stock has jumped more than 68% on the year. 'Big Short' Burry of "Big Short" fame snapped up a slew of regional banks last quarter, including New York Community Bancorp , Capital One Financial , Western Alliance , PacWest Bancorp and Huntington Bancshares during the first quarter. To make matters more confusing, the conglomerate dumped its remaining stakes in Bank of New York Mellon and U.S. Bancorp .
Morgan Stanley analyst warned of potentially big swings for some of the regional banks it covers as the fallout for the crisis continues. Analyst Manan Gosalia downgraded Commerce Bancshares and Prosperity Bancshares to underweight from equal weight. Commerce Bancshares' new price target of $48 implies shares declining 3.5% from Monday's close. Meanwhile, the analysts' new price target of $60 per share for Prosperity Bancshares implies a 1% loss from where shares closed on Monday. To be sure, the analyst said that in the case deposit outflows do accelerate, Commerce Bancshares and Prosperity Bancshares would end up outperforming their peers due to their "generally more resilient funding profiles."
Here are Tuesday's biggest calls on Wall Street: JPMorgan reiterates Netflix as overweight JPMorgan said paid password sharing should be a financial tailwind for Netflix. Mizuho reiterates SoFi as buy Mizuho said it's standing by shares of SoFi. Citi reiterates Deere as buy Citi said it's standing by its buy rating on shares of Deere. Citi upgrades Williams Companies to buy from neutral Citi said the petroleum stock is oversold. Citi reiterates FedEx as buy Citi said it's standing by its buy rating FedEx shares.
David Einhorn joined other big investors in shares in several regional bank stocks last quarter in a bet that the financial institutions would survive the industry crisis that felled Silicon Valley and First Republic banks. That's the bank whose subsidiary, Flagstar, acquired Signature Bank assets after that bank was shuttered. Einhorn's additions come amid a broad selloff of regional bank stocks on concern more institutions could fail as depositors withdrew assets and the value of banks' bond holdings narrowed. "Big Short" investor Michael Burry also bought regional bank stocks last quarter. Outside of the bank stocks, Einhorn notably increased exposure to Concentrix , Gulfport Energy and Tenet Healthcare .
Michael Burry, known for calling the subprime mortgage crisis, bought shares in a number of regional banks last quarter, betting the industry could weather the crisis, according to a new regulatory filing. The famed investor said in mid-March, after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank , that he expected the banking crisis to be over soon without severe damage. However, on May 1, First Republic was seized by regulators to become the biggest bank collapse since the 2008 financial crisis. Burry bought $2 million worth of First Republic Bank shares last quarter, the filing, which reflects Scion's holdings as of March 31, showed. Burry was depicted in Michael Lewis' book "The Big Short" and the subsequent Oscar-winning movie of the same name.
Blackstone, Apollo were among about 20 bidders for SVB's assets
  + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
May 10 (Reuters) - Blackstone Inc (BX.N) and Apollo Global Management (APO.N) were among about 20 bidders for some assets of collapsed Silicon Valley Bank, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) said on Wednesday. PNC Financial Services (PNC.N), Valley Bank, Citizens Bank and BankUnited (BKU.N) were also among the bidders, the FDIC said in a summary document, adding that one or more bidders submitted more than one bid. The bids, which closed on March 10, were followed by First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA.O) purchasing all the loans and deposits of SVB later that month. That was since eclipsed by First Republic Bank which was seized by regulators in early May and sold to JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N). The deal announced in March said First Citizens would acquire SVB's assets of $110 billion, deposits of $56 billion and loans of $72 billion.
May 10 (Reuters) - First Citizen BancShares Inc (FCNCA.O) on Wednesday reported a gain of $9.82 billion in the first quarter from its acquisition of failed lender Silicon Valley Bank in March. The windfall helped drive a surge in its profit to $9.50 billion, or $653.64 per share, for the three months ended March 31 from $264 million, or $16.70 per share, a year earlier. The Raleigh, North Carolina-based lender's first-quarter deposits stood at $140.05 billion, also rising nearly 57% from the end of last year. More than a third of those deposits came from Silicon Valley Bank, which First Citizens had scooped up with the backing of U.S. regulators. Reporting by Siddarth S in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'SilvaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
On Tuesday, the company reported a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss and said it expects to still meet forward guidance targets. Its revenue of $661 million topped the $652 million expected from analysts polled by Refinitiv. Twilio anticipates between $980 million and $990 million in revenue, while analysts polled by Refinitiv were expecting $1.05 billion in revenue. On Tuesday, the company reported same-store sales and revenue for the first quarter missed analysts' expectations, according to FactSet. On Tuesday, Occidental posted first-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.09, which is less than the $1.24 estimate from analysts polled by FactSet.
The continued slide for regional bank stocks after the failure of First Republic last week has created some buying opportunities in the sector, according to Wall Street analysts. "We believe this recent stock reaction is overdone as there is currently no evidence of accelerating deposit outflows. We see accelerating deposit costs, not accelerating deposit outflows, as the most significant headwind for the midcap banks over the next several quarters," Gosalia wrote. Huntington and Webster also rise to the top of the heap for RBC Capital Markets analyst Jon Arfstrom. Both Huntington and Webster are down about 30% for the year, which is better than the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE).
With only a small fraction of the S & P 500 left to report quarterly earnings, investors are now turning their focus to another major hurdle for the markets and economy: the debt ceiling crisis. Earlier this week, we looked back to debt limit crisis of 2011 for potential lessons. The protracted fight ultimately ended in an agreement in early August of that year, but it was a choppy summertime ride for investors. Within the portfolio, Wynn Resorts will report Tuesday, after the closing bell, and Disney will report on Wednesday, after the closing bell. Estee Lauder (EL) and Emerson Electric (EMR) reported earnings before the opening bell.
The latest case in point: The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC) chose JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) as the winning bidder in an auction to buy collapsed lender First Republic Bank on Monday. FDIC officials, however, say would-be buyers risk losing out if they allow the value of an acquisition target to deteriorate over time while waiting for an FDIC receivership. SWEETENERSU.S. bank mergers were already sluggish as interest rates rose and recession loomed, analysts at Raymond James wrote in an Apr. The first quarter was the quietest opening to a year for bank deals in a generation, they said. Market volatility stops bank buyers from pulling together enough money to cover writedowns on struggling assets, which would be triggered by a traditional acquisition, said David Sandler, co-head of financial services investment banking at Piper Sandler Companies (PIPR.N).
Bank of America upgrades Pearson to buy from underperform Bank of America said the selloff in the British education company is overdone. Bank of America upgrades Cogent to buy from underperform Bank of America upgraded the internet services provider and says it sees "new sales growth." Bernstein upgrades Marriott to outperform from market perform Bernstein said the hotel giant has the "highest quality" earnings stream. " Evercore ISI reiterates Wells Fargo as outperform Evercore said it's sticking with the larger banks as regional concerns continue. Berenberg upgrades HSBC to buy from hold Berenberg said in its upgrade of the UK bank that it's "structurally attractive."
Prosperity Bancshares is a safe pick in a sector that's been recently defined by risk, according to Wolfe Research. Analyst Bill Carcache double-upgraded the regional bank stock to outperform from underperform, saying the bank has "relative safety on high ground" amid sector turmoil that was initially ignited by the closure of Silicon Valley Bank in March and reignited by the auction won by JPMorgan for First Republic Bank this week. His new target implies the stock could rally 15% from Tuesday's close. That's of increasing importance as industry insiders expect more stringent regulations following the recent bank failures, he said. He said that the bank has historically had fewer write-offs than regional peers.
Online banks are boosting rates on savings accounts and certificates of deposits as fear of deposit flight plagues regional institutions. Bread offers an annual percentage yield (APY) of 5.2% on a one-year CD and 4.65% APY on savings accounts. Capital One has an APY of 3.75% on its savings account, and it pays 4.15% APY for a one-year online CD. Other online institutions paying attractive rates on one-year CDs include Synchrony Financial, which pays 4.75% APY, and Ally Bank, which offers a 4.5% APY. Analysts expect higher rates from online banks to spur other institutions to raise their deposit betas – that is, the amount by which rates paid to customers increases following a boost in the fed funds rate.
If the Fed opts to pause, Treasury yields are expected to decline. Stocks that could gain on falling interest rates Here are the top stocks that are poised to move higher if the Fed signals it will pause rate increases. The gold miner benefits from a rise in gold prices, and in general, gold tends to rise when interest rates fall. Meanwhile, genetics company Illumina should gain if interest rates fall, according to its correlation to the SHY ETF. Stocks poised to gain on rate increases However, if the Fed suggests rate hikes will continue, short-term Treasury yields will likely go up, benefiting these stocks.
A Timeline of How the Banking Crisis Has Unfolded
  + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Madeleine Ngo | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +9 min
March 9Gregory Becker, the chief executive of Silicon Valley Bank, urged venture capital firms to remain calm on a conference call. March 10In the biggest bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis, Silicon Valley Bank collapsed after a run on deposits . Regional bank stocks plunged after the unexpected seizure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank , with shares of First Republic tumbling 60 percent. The Treasury secretary believed the actions by the private sector would help underscore confidence in the stability of the banking system. April 28The Fed released a report faulting itself for failing to “take forceful enough action” ahead of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse.
This earnings season, some major banks bucked tumult in the sector by raking in record revenues and surpassing Wall Street expectations. The bank separately disclosed $725 million of "non-accrual loans" tied to office assets — debts that are already delinquent on payments. That was a nearly fourfold increase in dollar volume of bad office loans over the previous quarter held by the bank. Even some loans tied the nation's robust market for apartment buildings have faltered recently. Anderson said about $760 billion of office loans were held by banks, which amounts to roughly 35% of their commercial-real-estate debt.
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